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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 30, 2011
AUD/USD is developing corrective wave B of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 0.9663. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored red in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 0.9863. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9666-0.9975-0.9863, 0.9863-1.0077-0.9975.
Resistances:
- 1.0107 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0172 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0189 = OP
- 1.0208 = .50 retracements
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-1.0085.
Supports:
- 0.9924 = .382 ret
- 0.9874 = .50 ret
- 0.9824 = .618 ret
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...0-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 30, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 119.31. Within the latter there are three subwaves (colored red in the chart) and impulse subwave C is developing from 120.70. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.25-119.31, 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-121.62-120.70.
Resistances:
- 122.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.34 = .382 retracement
- 122.47 = .50 ret
- 123.01 = objective point (OP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret
- 123.28 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.31-121.82.
Supports:
- 120.82 = .382 ret
- 120.57 = .50 ret
- 120.27 = .618 ret
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...0-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (10-20 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Level For December 1st / 2011
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u..._1-12-2011.JPG
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVEL :
Breakout BUY Level : 1.3505.
Strong Resistance : 1.3497.
Original Resistance : 1.3485.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3472.
Target Inner Area : 1.3440.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3408.
Original Support : 1.3395.
Strong Support : 1.3382.
Breakout SELL Level : 1.3374.
DECRIPTION :
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3395 and 1.3485 is accompanied by a strong support at 1.3382 and 1.3497 for the strong resistance; If today the EUR/USD can break out and close below the 1.3374 level then this indicates considerable Bearish strength, while if the EUR/USD today can break out and close above the 1.3505 level then this indicates considerable Bullish strength. Alternatively you can trade in a way to open BUY position at the level of 1.3408 and 1.3472 for SELL position in which case both targets are located at the 1.3440 level.
Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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NZD/USD Ichimoku technical analysis for December 1, 2011
H4
Positive informational background increased bullish sentiment on the NZD/USD market that advanced to the upper limit of the 4-hour Cloud. The pair recovered by over 200 pips and stopped near 0.7800 thus showing the record growth in the last two months.
However despite the short-term positive sentiment, the long-term trend remains negative. The Ichimoku Cloud has a downside character that will remain such during next 1-2 days.
In case the bulls cannot break the resistance the upper Kumo limit the price might return to the Rotation line (3), thus forming a correction.
The Chinkous Span deviated from the graph also confirms the possibility of such events.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-nzdusd-h4.gif
H1
In 1-hour graphs the main sentiment is positive. The Ichimoku Cloud retained positive character and is widening the range in the positive direction due to the growing Senkou Span A.
The short-term Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed a new Gold cross (5) meant to support the bulls in the nearest time.
It is worth mentioning that the Kijun-sen (4) formed a new support at 0.7700 that will resist possible corrective decline.
During today’s session the price might decline and trade sideways inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. However, if the Rotation line cannot provide support the bulls will try to resume the recovery.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-nzdusd-h1.gif
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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NZD/USD Ichimoku technical analysis for December 1, 2011
H4
Positive informational background increased bullish sentiment on the NZD/USD market that advanced to the upper limit of the 4-hour Cloud. The pair recovered by over 200 pips and stopped near 0.7800 thus showing the record growth in the last two months.
However despite the short-term positive sentiment, the long-term trend remains negative. The Ichimoku Cloud has a downside character that will remain such during next 1-2 days.
In case the bulls cannot break the resistance the upper Kumo limit the price might return to the Rotation line (3), thus forming a correction.
The Chinkous Span deviated from the graph also confirms the possibility of such events.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-nzdusd-h4.gif
H1
In 1-hour graphs the main sentiment is positive. The Ichimoku Cloud retained positive character and is widening the range in the positive direction due to the growing Senkou Span A.
The short-term Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed a new Gold cross (5) meant to support the bulls in the nearest time.
It is worth mentioning that the Kijun-sen (4) formed a new support at 0.7700 that will resist possible corrective decline.
During today’s session the price might decline and trade sideways inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel. However, if the Rotation line cannot provide support the bulls will try to resume the recovery.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-nzdusd-h1.gif
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, December, 01 / 2011
On Wednesday, an agreement between six central banks, they have already taken important
decisions against the yen in March and agreed that joint actions several times, went back into
action.
Through this new agreement will run until mid-2013 a series of currency swaps between these
entities, while refinancing debt agreed to continue to provide a sustainable exit to the crisis
that European economies are embedded in the first place, and also the United States.
Also, during the European session, the People's Bank of China had cut the lace that banks should
be deposited in the state, seeking to provide loans to individuals, and thus give dynamism to
the local economy.
The other positive news of the day came from the hand of the ADP private survey, which showed
employment growth well above that expected in November, which also generates optimism for the
official data, due on Friday.
Earnings of European stock exchanges of New York and spread the good climate to foreign
exchange. To advertisements, the euro, British pound, Swiss franc and the yen recovered quickly
positions, bringing its short-term charts against the dollar in very bullish trends.
Logically, on closing the U.S. session, there were logical correction of a movement of this
kind, without, however, changing the trends that had formed hours before.
The announcement of the central bank does not work, let alone the European crisis, but it does
give some air to their leaders, who seem disoriented in recent days, making decisions and
issuing advertisements then not carried out.
No significant developments during Thursday's Asian session, European stock markets seem to have
appeased the euphoria of yesterday, and operate with losses of 0.5%.
In turn, presented the major currencies against the dollar disparate behaviors, greatly
strengthened the euro area and looking again at 1.35 and the pound sterling also showing an
upward trend in the short term. The currencies linked to commodities have a different
perspective for the rest of the day. The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar not consolidating
its upward trend on Wednesday, losing strength in the last hours.
In the U.S. session will be announced Thursday at 8:30 Eastern, weekly unemployment requests,
and at 10:00 the ISM manufacturing, which are the interesting facts of the day.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, December 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...ember01(1).gif
AUD/USD
The pair Australian dollar - U.S. dollar it is known that the pair has a high volatility in
relation to markets and their correlation is very high. Therefore, the pair has rebounded
strongly from its minimum of 0.9660 to the maximum of the day yesterday at 1.0329, 650 pips a
rebound.
Technically, it is estimated that the pair will continue their current upward movement but has
to overcome the important resistance level of 1.0430. We have a sell order to activate a touch
see this level, we believe this will be a very strong resistance torque can not overcome easily.
Our goal for the total realization of this exercise we will place right in the nearest weekly
support around 0.9700 U.S. Dollars per Australian Dollars.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.3330 December 01, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...ndcember01.gif
EUR/USD
The pair Euro - U.S. dollar has recovered from the downward pressure that led to the minimum of
1.3250, when yesterday registered a maximum of 1.3530, almost 300 pips rebound after the
announcement that major central banks would coordinate efforts to ensure that there is no
shortage of global liquidity crisis due to the current euro-zone.
We must be attentive to the response to be given to the situasion of the crisis; has been given
a period of 10 days for financial decisions.
We therefore recommend be cautious because this scenario has not yet even finished.
At the level of technical analysis, we note that the euro has broken an overwhelming its
downtrend, we even lack the "Pull Back" that arises whenever a pair trends change, so we
recommend buy at lower levels of 1.3330 (this level coinside with weekly pivot point) with a
target end of the year to the level of 1.3830 dollars per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, December, 02 / 2011
Today, investor attention is placed on the data of U.S. jobs.
November is expected to have created 120,000 new jobs, compared with 80,000 in October and the
unemployment rate has remained at 9%.
Of course, these data have their interpretations, and revisions. Thus, the figure is as good as
last month's review in October, especially if they differ much from the number published in due
course. And the unemployment rate, the real key fact, every so often offers some surprises.
In mid 2009, the Labor Department had estimated that by mid 2012, the rate would be
approximately 7.5%. Another miscalculation, and there is any error, by the way.
On another note, the markets took a breather on Thursday in the week of festivities, the
announcement of a major injection of dollars and euros to markets by the Fed, and the top five
central bank's next in importance .
But it's hard to understand at times euphoria. Reading carefully the promises of these central
banks, it is purely technical ads, in no way help the real economy of any country.
Lower the cost of borrowing overnight or a few tenths of a point in the cost of financing from
Italy, Spain or any other country in trouble, does not substantially change anything.
The problem is not to pay such high interest rates, which is serious, but not enough to have
economies like the current recession.
And to combat the recession, financial markets must accompany economic growth, financing
productive projects.
If no project, if there are countries with more than 20% unemployment, where hundreds of
thousands of properties unfinished and unsold, if the industries do not work, that accompany the
financial markets project?
In this case, markets are dedicated to finding only the weakest of all, a debtor from his debts
just cornered and attacked him with unpaid fees.
In other words, a plan like that proposed by the central banks can help, in part, short-term
financial problem solving, to pour money into the markets, which invariably will go to stocks,
bonds, futures contracts on commodities and currency, and therefore these assets grow.
But the world knows, throughout its history, which finances work as an engine without oil when
the economy is destroyed.
And to rebuild the economy are governments, not central banks. Indeed, these governments are
shown faint-hearted, timid and lack of reaction.
But for a long time, all that remain from the side. At 8:30 Eastern, the jobs data will eclipse
the markets and the opening of the NYSE reflected the climate created minutes earlier. And every
month, anything can happen.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for December 2, 2011
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...202/JPY_h4.gif
Wave dimension analysis:
Yesterday’s USD/JPY slight movement from the reached high can probably be interpreted as an
attempt to form a 5-wave structure of the future 1st wave (or a) of the new trend downside
section. If so, the first target for this 1st wave will be 77.20 or even 76.50. At the same time
the pair still has a chance to resume upside movement in favour of the US currency. In the
meantime the whole upside section formed after November 18 can appear the beginning of a new
continuous uptrend.
General conclusion and trading recommendations:
At the moment the price is in a local downside movement thus probably forming the first wave of
the trend downside section. In general we can spot some uncertainty, as with other currency
pair. Current movement can reach 77.08 or Fibonacci 23.6% level. In case this assumption is
correct an upside correction against the 5-wave structure will follow. However the pair remains
not quite suitable for trading.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/USD Intraday Technical analysis
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...205/gbpusd.png
The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bullish channel in 1.5560 suggesting a rebound. However a break of these levels would entail a return to the lower limit of this one to 1.5280.
According to previous events, the market indicates a bullish opportunity on the levels of 1.5560 with a 1st objective of 1.5640, then 1.5660. A break in 1.5540 would invalidate this scenario.
Performed by Albert Fitoussi, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD: Weekly Technical Levels for December 5th -- 9th, 2011
Weekly Technical Levels:
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...eurusd__PP.JPG
Tip (s):
R3 and S3 are good indication for the maximum range for extremely volatile days but can be exceeded occasionally.
Pivot lines work well in sideways markets as prices will most likely range between the R1 and S1 line.
In a strong trend, price will be low through a pivot point line and keep going.
If there is significant news to influence the market price may go straight through R1 or S1 and reach even R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.
Time Frame: H4.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...___5thdec_.gif
Drag your Fibonacci retracement levels from the lower to the higher of the last week (It has 120 candles, as you know each candle is formed in 1 hour on H4 chart from 28th of November to 2nd of December, 2011) in order to determine low and high price.
Average = (Higher - Lower) / 2
Average = 1.3403
Range was: 291 pips.
The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.3403.
1.3171 will be formed a strong support.
1.3750 will be formed a strong resistance.
Volatility is 390.00 so the market has called for a high volatile.
It should be noted that the price has still been trapped between 1.3553 and 1.3212.
Observation (s):
If the strength of the trend for pair is an uptrend, then the strength of the currency: EUR is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
Most of traders use the Fibonacci retracement to determine accurate psychology level of support and resistance.
Volatility Formulas: Variation = Average * (Higher - Lower).
Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, December, 06 / 2011
The week began with a certain relief in the markets, with a moderately positive jobs report in the U.S., and the ISM service, which although did not offer the expected growth, was not that far.
However, in the afternoon in New York, learned that Standard & Poor's announced shortly his change of perspective for the debt of 17 countries with the euro as currency.
To Sarkozy and Merkel, meeting in Paris, there are probably choking lunch with the news, but worse happened who bought euros at that time: the single currency fell unmitigated from 1.3470 to 1.3370 area in minutes before offering some reprieve.
The forex market has, in this sense, its most unpredictable: These ads are not provided and the time of publication generate unforeseeable movements.
Beyond the operational issue, the European leaders meeting scheduled for Thursday, 8 at night and on Friday 9, seems to be decisive (again) for the future of the euro.
There are many voices, and very authoritative, like Buffett and Soros, who think the way it is, the euro is low life, whatever the measures taken to save it.
The truth is that businesses large and small, money problems are solved with money. And the deficits, whether family, business or nation, are solved by lowering expenses or increasing revenues.
To think that by lowering the cost of debt, increase exports, and maintaining a proper level of subsidies governments of South American countries with no international credibility will improve the situation is a gross error that Europe is committing right now .
There is talk of debt, rate of interest of banks. No mention of production, sales, consumption, exports and growth. When the equation is back, begin to change the situation.
Tuesday's European session returns to the prevailing climate of pessimism, and just after midday stock indexes of the old continent have a profit, although very moderate.
European currencies, meanwhile, recovered positions, once again exceeding the 1.34 euro and the pound sterling above 1.56. In turn, currencies linked to commodities uptrends retake paths, all in the short term.
At 9:00 of the East know the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Canada, being the most important fact of the day from the macro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Bullish Outlook, December 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...edcember06.gif
USD/CAD
The pair American dollar - Canadian dollar maintained its upward trend in the daily chart, this day the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates, investors expect no change. The pair is below the 1.0240 level test, which is aligned with the pivot point weekly, if this level is perforated so bullish. the pair will have highs around 1.0400 and 1.0600 On the other hand, the indicator MACD and Momentum show signs of upward movement. We suggest waiting until the 1.0100 to take bullish positions, because this week will be a busy week for the markets desicion.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com