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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 25, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 developing from 124.22. The wave from 124.22 has four subwaves (colored red in the chart), with potential subwave 4 still developing from 119.31. The targets below are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-123.85-125.63, 125.63-122.90-124.22, 124.22-120.82-121.70, 121.70-119.97-120.87.
Supports:
- 119.14 = objective point (OP)
- 118.30 = OP
- 118.07 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31.
Resistances:
- 120.22 = .382 retracement
- 120.51 = .50 ret
- 120.79 = .618 ret
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 25 / 2011
The European debt crisis is on the crest of the wave, and the leaders of major powers do not
succeed in finding a decent output to it.
It mini summits and peaks occur between different prime ministers, with proposals that seek
to unify criteria, although in all cases are rejected by the German Chancellor, Angela
Merkel.
Such is the case for the initiative to create a Eurobond, which has the approval of Merkel,
because its implementation would be supportive to their country with other countries using
the euro as national currency, and generate the unification of the interest rates.
These have been increasing in recent weeks in countries that in principle should not have
major problems, such as France and Holland have risen to records since the inception of the
euro in Spain and Italy.
Indeed, Italy has had to pay on Friday morning, nearly 7.5% of loans to two years, Spain has
similar difficulty.
In this context, the foreign exchange market has a uniform behavior, something unusual in
recent times. The dollar strengthened on all fronts, especially, of course, against the euro
and therefore to the Swiss franc, British pound but also is very weak. Meanwhile, the yen
has left its short-term bullish position, and traded at 77.50 per dollar, a move that could
deepen in the coming hours.
They also fall oil, which traded at 95.06 (WTI) and 106.00 (Brent) at this time. The
currencies linked to it, as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, also suffer paths falls.
In the case of weight, has reached its lowest end of March 2009, thus being more weakened
currency in recent weeks.
Gold also seems to have slowed its upward path, and can not exceed $ 1700 per ounce,
bringing down the Australian dollar, which is approaching its minimum of one month and a
half.
No important data for the U.S. session, the reopening of the NYSE will be a strong
attraction. The Dow Jones index futures traded at the time at 11,160 points, while closing
the Wednesday before the holiday on Thursday, was at 11,257 points. This difference between
the futures and the actual price of the shares is usually covered in the first minutes of
the American session.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Buy Above 0.9630, November 25, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...november25.gif
AUD/USD
The Australian Dollar - U.S. Dollar pair The currency maintained its sliding trend this
morning and is being trade in the narrow range of 0.9712-0.9670. It is likely that the
Australian, goes to the second daily support around 0.9630. a break below this level push to
new lows to the 0.9400 level, so if we look for a rebound on this support, we have a point
of exit below 0.9600. The momentum indicator and range indicator, are showing oversold
levels. Our goal in this exercise as just below the downtrend line. around 0.9785 dollars
per Australian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for November 25, 2011
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...125/JPY_h4.gif
Wave dimension analysis:
Yesterday during the whole day the USD/JPY currency pair was trading in a narrow price range
above the 77 figure level. At the same time, despite low market activity the price carried
on forming the inner wave structure of the b wave within the estimated 4th wave of the whole
trend downside section initiated October 31. If so, after forming this b wave the currency
pair will resume growth to the local high of Wednesday or to the correction level 50.0%
(77.70).
General conclusion and trading recommendations:
At the moment the yen is demonstrating a weak movement within the b wave of the upside trend
section. If so, this decline can last up to the target level 76.80 or Fibonacci 11.4% level.
After observing the b wave we should expect a resumption of the upside movement to the
correction level 77.68 or Fibonacci 50.0% level.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 28, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave С is still developing from 125.63. Within the latter there are five subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) and potential corrective subwave A is developing from 119.31. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 121.70-119.31, 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-120.40-119.82.
Resistances:
- 120.49-51 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 retracement
- 120.79 = .618 ret
- 120.91 = objective point (OP)
- 121.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 119.31 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...8-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 28, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 still developing from 0.9663. Within the latter wave 4 there are also three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C developing from 0.9666. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0343-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9663-0.9785-0.9666, 0.9666-0.9773-0.9683.
Resistances:
- 0.9923 = .382 retracement
- 0.9963 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9985 = SXOP
- 1.0003 = .50 ret
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.9963 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...8-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/CHF Ichimoku technical analysis for November 28, 2011
H4
Last Friday the bulls returned to the GBP/CHF market and quickly recovered the pair to the upper limit of the 4-hour Ichimoku Cloud.
However, the Senkou Span did not let them go further and the week was closed inside the Kumo.
Nevertheless the short-term situation switched in favour of the buyers – the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a Gold cross (5) that is likely to provide support to the bulls in the nearest time.
Therefore in the nearest term we can expect the price to break the upper limit of the Cloud and fixate in a positive area. In case it succeeds this will denote the end of the correction phase on the market and resumption of the major positive trend.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-gbpchf-h4.gif
H1
The situation changed in favour of the bulls in the 1-hour timeframe as well. As a result of last Friday’s active recovery the price crossed quite a wide range of the Ichimoku Cloud and appeared in a positive area.
At the moment there is a consolidation on the market above the upper limit of the Cloud.
Obviously the recovery will be continued as the Kumo changed its character to the upside and the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen formed a Gold cross (5) applying by now.
Besides, the Chinkou Span is likely to leave the overbought zone in the nearest time.
Therefore during today’s trading session the Friday’s highs can be refreshed. The nearest target is 1.4470.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-gbpchf-h1.gif
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 28 - 30, November/ 01- 02 December, 2011
We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the
supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly
support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least
to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the
weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the
levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0276
Weekly - R2 = 1.0144
Weekly - R1 = 0.9926
Weekly Pivot = 0.9794
Weekly - S1 = 0.9576
Weekly - S2 = 0.9444
Weekly - S3 = 0.9226
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.2425
Monthly - R2 = 1.1588
Monthly - R1 = 1.1060
Monthly Pivot = 1.0223
Monthly - S1 = 0.9695
Monthly - S2 = 0.8858
Monthly - S3 = 0.8330
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 28 - 30, November/ 01- 02 December, 2011
We have two graphs, one weekly and one monthly. The strategy we should do is buy the
supports S1, (we must be cautious because if the market is bearish try to fall, until weekly
support S2) S2, (at this level there is greater probability that the price rebound, at least
to the weekly S1.) S3 (severe long-term strategy with the objective of take profit, to the
weekly pivot point.) on the other side. The same applies when a market is bullish expect the
levels of R1, R2, R3 to sell and take advantage of the price correction.
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0834
Weekly - R2 = 1.0678
Weekly - R1 = 1.0581
Weekly Pivot = 1.0425
Weekly - S1 = 1.0328
Weekly - S2 = 1.0172
Weekly - S3 = 1.0075
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1243
Monthly - R2 = 1.0949
Monthly - R1 = 1.0478
Monthly Pivot = 1.0184
Monthly - S1 = 0.9713
Monthly - S2 = 0.9419
Monthly - S3 = 0.8948
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 29, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave A (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.25. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and corrective subwave 4 is still developing from 119.31. Within the latter there are two subwaves (colored red in the chart) and corrective subwave B is developing from 121.62. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 125.63-119.31, and expansions off 119.31-121.62-120.70.
Resistances:
- 121.72 = .382 retracement
- 122.13 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.47 = .50 ret
- 123.01 = objective point (OP)
- 123.22 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.32-121.62, 119.82-121.62.
Supports:
- 120.74-72 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
- 120.51-47 = confluence area of .618 and .50 ret
- 120.19 = .618 ret
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...9-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - November 29, 2011
AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with corrective subwave 4 still developing from 0.9663. Within the latter wave 4 there are also three subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C developing from 0.9666. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0343-0.9663, and expansions off 0.9663-0.9785-0.9666, 0.9666-0.9975-0.9863.
Resistances:
- 0.9985 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0003 = .50 retracement
- 1.0054 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0083 = .618 ret
If the pair reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9663-0.9975.
Supports:
- 0.9856 = .382 ret
- 0.9819 = .50 ret
- 0.9782 = .618 ret
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...9-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (60-70 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (80-90 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/NZD Ichimoku technical analysis for November 29, 2011
H4
As expected the EUR/NZD declined to the support level 1.7600 formed by the lower limit of the Ichimoku Cloud in the 4-hour timeframe. A rebound to the upside followed and the market started consolidating on the current levels.
However the short-term negative sentiment remains as the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen (3, 4) are still holding the Dead cross (5). Therefore the Senkou Span B is very likely to be broken down. In this case the market might fall down to the next support at 1.7450.
Further downfall can only be prevented by the Senkou Span B being in the oversold zone. Therefore even if the price breaks below the Ichimoku Cloud, in the nearest time a consolidation under the Senkou Span B might start.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-eurnzd-h4.gif
H1
In a 1-hour timeframe the downside trend still remains both in short and in long term.
The Ichimoku Cloud has a downside character supported by the descending Senkou Span A (1), and the Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are keeping the Dead cross (5).
Therefore in the nearest time we should probably expect further downtrend if the price manages to fixate above the Rotation line (3) being broken down at the moment. Morning highs are likely to be refreshed.
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...-eurnzd-h1.gif
Performed by Vadim Idrisov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, November, 29 / 2011
The Friday after Thanksgiving Day, the largest U.S. stores are launching a series of bids, in what is called "black Friday", but not with the meaning usually given to the days when stock markets tremble .
This time, the black Friday (in other words means that the numbers went from "red", symbolizing loss, the "black" meaning profit) had a record retail sales, in part, served to you on Monday New York Stock Exchange re-sung, and the main contributors to gain ground actions.
Also contributed to the good business climate the commitment of European leaders put more emphasis on the recovery of their economies, and also to seek a sustainable solution to the problem of sovereign debts.
This complex picture in which the investor sentiment changes hour by hour, is also reflected in the currencies. A very bullish opening was followed by another move in the opposite direction of the euro, British pound, Swiss franc and yen.
In turn, driven by oil and gold, the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar also had a strong performance on the rise, attenuated toward the end of the American session.
While average European session on Tuesday, both the euro and the pound sterling and Swiss franc thrive against the dollar, waiting for the meeting of European finance ministers.
It is expected that at least they make an announcement encouraging about the crisis affecting the entire continent, and the expectation of the market leads to the purchase of risky assets.
Anyway, watching the two separate "gaps" that remain in the major pairs on Monday in the Asian session, and have not been covered, and with prices so far away from them, it is perfectly conceivable that by combining analysis fundamental technical, good news will not be leaving the meeting date.
Tuesday's U.S. session will report the importance of consumer confidence index issued by the Conference Board, at 10:00 Eastern.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook, November 29, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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EUR/USD
Investors are encouraged by the prospect that the Federal Reserve will launch an additional program to buy bonds the next quarter, yesterday evening was reported to have found a formula to leverage the billions of euros in rescue, when in the next few days details will be published. These events, surely encourage the Euro - Dollar,
On a technical level, the pair opened the week with a bullish Gap, and still has not closed. given that there is a slight upward trend, we believe that the force was over. just at the level of resistance around 1.3460, if this level is broken and the pair closes the November negotiations over this level. have for the month of December, a euro trading above 1.38. Our profit-taking in this exercise we will place in the nearest support around 1.3100. dollars per Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for November 29, 2011
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...9/usdjpy_4.gif
Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the upside movement is continuing, therefore long positions are recommended until the correction movement begins. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 78.44 – the second resistance level. If this level is passed the second target will be the third resistance level at 79.11. Upside movement remains while the price is above the Kijun-sen (77.60). The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which confirms the buy sell signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing upside movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed up, therefore it is recommended to consider long positions. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current upside movement, in case the MACD reverses down we should close long positions.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with target at 78.44 and further to 79.11. Stop Loss should be placed below 77.60. It is recommended to cut buy positions after the MACD reverses down.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com