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Dear traders!
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I prize: Ghani Yanto (prize: Sony Vaio Z11 laptop)
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Regards,
FBS Holding Inc.
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BofT-Mitsubishi UFJ: dollar will recover to 82 yen
Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. claim that the greenback may recover to 82 yen as the as technical charts show that the currency is close to the bottom.
The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY fell yesterday below 5-day MA and an Ichimoku chart’s conversion line at 81.20 yen area. As it may be seen on the weekly candlestick chart, US dollar is forming a “spinning top” pattern that means after the long decline that the market is likely to reverse.
As a result, the bank analysts expect the pair to rise, though not strongly. In the near term the greenback may get up to 82 yen, but then the resistance line formed by the 21-day MA now in 81.82 yen area will step in limiting the further growth of American currency.
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Morgan Stanley: dollar forecast’s cut
Analysts at Morgan Stanley suppose that the greenback may fall to the minimum since December 2009 at $1.46 per euro. As for the trade versus Japanese yen, UD dollar will remain low in 81 yen area. Australian currency is expected to buy 98 US cents by year-end.
According to Morgan Stanley, dollar will be weak due to the Fed’s quantitative easing conducted to stimulate growth. Strategists note that the market’s very bearish on the greenback claiming that the US currency will enter 2011 strongly undervalued.
The previous forecast of the specialists was that the American currency would be at $1.36 against the single currency and at 93 yen by the end of 2010. The next year dollar may rebound climbing to $1.32 per euro, 85 cents per Aussie and 93 yen by the end of 2011, the bank predicted.
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IMF: euro, dollar, yen and pound reflect fundamentals
According to the International Monetary Fund’s report released yesterday, the greenback is rather strong on the basis of US economic data in the medium-term. The same was stated about the single currency, yen and pound.
As for emerging economies that have current-account surpluses, they need to begin allowing their currencies appreciate playing their role in rebalancing global demand.
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Notes:
FBS reserves a right to change or modify the promotion rules, stop the promotion or any of its parts anytime without prior notification. We will post such changes in our “Company news” section
Any arguable situation not listed in these rules will be the subject to the decision of FBS. Any decision taken by FBS will be considered final and mandatory for all the parties.
FBS reserves a right to decline client’s bonus application without explaining the reason
FBS reserves a right to cancel client’s bonus without explaining the reason
The English version of these rules should be considered prevailing over any other language versions.
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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD
Weekly GBP/USD
Last week pound regained everything it lost the week before and the rate returned again to the recent local maximums. This time the prices were supported by the weekly Turning line (3) and went above the Ichimoku Cloud.
All lines of the Indicator are directed sideways (1, 2, 3 and 4) that confirms the market is within sideways trend.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...72_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Weekly GBP/USD
Daily GBP/USD
On the daily chart the upper border of the Cloud remained untested. Instead of continuing downward correction the market was rebounding since Monday.
However, Tenkan and Kijun have already managed during this time to form the “dead cross” (5) that is likely to be false as the bullish sentiment returned to the market and Senkou Span A (1) reversed upwards.
As a result, we may assume that the bulls will continue their attacks aiming to renew local maximums.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...c1_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY 2010-11-01
Chart USD/JPY
Even though weekly Chinkou Span is in the area of maximal deviation from the price chart, the pair USD/JPY keeps its rapid decline.
During last week the prices hit the 80.50 level and this doesn’t seem to be the limit of the slump. All lines of the Indicator are moving downwards (1, 2, 3 and 4).
So, bearish trend is expected to continue this week.
Chart. Weekly USD/JPY
Daily USD/JPY
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...e7_500_0_0.jpg
The rebound of the middle of last week didn’t continue and just as the prices broke up through the Turning line they weren’t able to hold in the channel and again got to the negative zone forming the signal for further selling.
In other words, the Ichimoku Cloud became descending, while Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4) keep the “dead cross” actual.
It’s possible that Tenkan-sen will (3) in the near term lose its balance and follow the prices downwards strengthening the positions of the bears.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...4f_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF .................................. 2010-11-01
Weekly USD/CHF
Correction that began at franc’s market resumed last week. The trade ended in favor of the bulls but the prices came across the resistance of Tenkan-sen (3) that remained sloping down.
Senkou Span A (1) is still declining widening downwards the Cloud’s range and enforcing the bearish sentiment at the market. Never the less, the market may keep rebounding the next week.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...c8_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Weekly USD/CHF
Daily USD/CHF
On the daily chart the short-term trend switched upwards: Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have already formed the “golden cross” (5). As a result, Senkou Span A (1) and Senkou Span B (2) keep narrowing the range of the Ichimoku Cloud. There are some signs that the global trend is likely to change.
However, firstly the bulls will have to overcome the resistance of the Cloud’s bottom and this week they may start attacking the level. Before that the rate may decline to the Turning line (3) and then bounce off.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...66_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
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Mizuho: spike high on USD/JPY..............................2010-11-01
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the market was already extremely nervous when the speculation about the intervention or, according to other opinions, the system problem in Tokyo made the pair USD/JPY jump from 80.44 to 81.60 within minutes after the Asian session began with the new multi-year minimum at 80.21. After making the spike high the pair returned to the 80.40 area.
The specialists advised investors to be very careful in their trade. In their view, the record low monthly close means that US currency will with no doubts survive further declines testing the all-time minimum at 79.75. In addition, Mizuho thinks that weak dollar would suit US’s interests quite well.
The strategists recommend trying small shorts at 80.55/80.80 stopping above 81.15.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...87_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 USD/JPY
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Barclays Capital: GBP/USD may rise to 1.6460 ......................... 2010-11-01
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that that pair GBP/USD resumed today last week’s recovering. If the British currency closes the day above 1.6130 trading versus the greenback, it will be able to test 2010 maximum in the 1.6460 area.
The specialists note that the first attempts of sterling to get higher may be held by the resistance in 1.6100/30 zone. The pressure will remain on the upside above 1.5880.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...3e_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
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PNP Paribas: Demand for Swiss franc declines
Swiss franc dropped to the minimal level versus the European currency since August. Currently the pair EUR/CHF is trading at 1.3780, while on August 10 it reached 1.3923 and on September 8 franc’s rate reached the record maximum at 1.2764. It’s necessary to mention that the Swiss currency weakened versus its other main countries as well.
Franc broadly declined happened as China’s PMI climbed from 53.8 in September to 54.7 in October. The growth of Chinese manufacturing and stocks helped to improve investors’ sentiment and reduced demand for franc as a safe haven currency. Internal Switzerland’s data also put some pressure on franc as the country’s manufacturing industries advanced in October at the lowest pace in the last 8 months.
Analysts at BNP Paribas SA claim that the Swiss franc’s rate depends more on the external factors of global environment rather than on the domestic ones. The specialists note that there are a lot of events expected this week. The key of them are the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank. Ahead of these events some investors may be reducing some bullish positions on franc that has already gained much during the last 6 months adding 4.3% against its main rivals, believes BNP Paribas.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...cd_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/CHF
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Fukoku Capital Management: dollar will fall to 75 yen.................2010-11-01
Analysts at Fukoku Capital Management Inc. claim that Japanese yen may climb to the record postwar maximum at 75 yen per dollar if the Federal Reserve decides to extend monetary easing measures.
In their view, yen will keep strengthening until the US exits monetary stimulus that’s unlikely to happen until the second half of 2011. The estimates for a new round of asset purchases by the Fed range from $1 trillion at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research to $2 trillion at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The specialists predict that the United States will suffer from the long-term economic stagnation avoiding though the double-dip recession.
The Fed will meet on November 2-3, while the Bank of Japan’s meeting is scheduled on November 4-5.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...2f_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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Market analysis " RBA rate increase " ______________________________ " 2010-11-02 "
Australian dollar almost reached today the parity versus its US counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time in 6 months. The pair AUD/USD is currently trading in the 0.9991 area.
The RBA increased benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% as the Governor of the central bank claimed that the risk of inflation rising didn’t disappear. High rates in Australia in comparison with close to zero ones in the United States and Japan make investors pour their money into higher-yielding Australian assets that stimulates the demand for the national currency. In addition, Aussie strengthened due to the speculation that the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan will ease monetary policy this week.
Strategists at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. comment that December rate hike is quite unlikely, so Aussie’s advance may be limited. The specialists believe that the outlook for Australian dollar will from now depend on the greenback and QE expectations.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...d6_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 AUD/USD
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Market analysis "Forecast Pte: euro " ( 2010-11-02 )
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte believe that the single currency may rise to the 9-month maximum versus the greenback at $1.4400 last reached on January 19 in case it manages to overcome strong resistance at $1.4004. The specialists note that this resistance represents a descending trend line connecting maximums of October 15 and 25, which crosses ascending trend line through the minimums of October 20 and 27 forming a triangle pattern.
According to Forecast Pte, euro is currently found at the top of a triangle and there are all the chances that it’ll break above the descending trend line. In other words, the strategists expect that the uptrend will continue.
Above $1.4004 the pair EUR/USD will be poised upwards to the next resistance at the October 15 maximum of $1.4159. The euro’s target of $1.4400 is calculated by adding to $1.4004 the difference between the October 20 minimum at $1.3698 and the triangle top at $1.4119 level.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...0e_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "ECB will have to act" ( 2010-11-02 )
Currency strategists at UBS AG believe that if the single currency keeps climbing versus the greenback the European central bank will be eventually forced to ease its monetary policy conducting some stimulus measures.
The specialists suppose that the ECB may broaden the collateral it accepts for loans or even reduce its key interest rate from the current 1%. At the same time UBS believes that more asset purchases in Europe are unlikely.
On the contrary, Bundesbank President Axel Weber is calling for an immediate end of the central bank’s bond purchase-program. The ECB’s buying is already different from quantitative easing in other countries as the central bank withdraws the resulting liquidity so that the net effect on the money supply is neutral.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...2e_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Mizuho: GBP/USD may advance to 1.6500" ( 2010-11-02 )
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that yesterday’s close of the pair GBP/USD was the highest since January and above the psychological 1.6000 level.
The closing candle formed on the h4 chart is a ‘doji’ that means the market is nervous – quite natural reaction with sterling trading so high.
The specialists underline that British currency isn’t overbought and momentum is steadily bullish and look forward to advance any moment now – the target levels for the pair GBP/USD are at 1.6100 and 1.6500.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy pounds if the pair lowers to 1.6000, adding to 1.5900 with stop orders below 1.5770.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...c9_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: GBP/USD won’t rise above 1.6108/32" ( 2010-11-02 )
Last week British currency bounced strongly versus the greenback from the 55-day MA to get in favorable position for revisiting of recent maximums in the 1.6100 area.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair GBP/USD will climb to test 1.6108/32 resistance zone limited by recent maximum and 3-month resistance line, but fails to overcome these levels.
If pound declines, support levels will be found at 1.5871 (20-day MA) and 1.5660/50 before 1.5526 (April peak) and 1.5474 (mid-July maximum).
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...0d_500_0_0.jpg
Chart, H4 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "UBS: dollar will rise if Republicans win" ( 2010-11-02 )
Currency strategists at UBS AG claim that if the Republicans will make strong gains in both the House of Representatives and the Senate on today’s US mid-term elections dollar will climb in the near term. According to the specialists, investors expect that government spending will be reduced if the power of Republicans increases.
The pair EUR/USD advanced today from 1.3895 to 1.3980 area.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...53_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Mizuho: mixed outlook for EUR/JPY" ( 2010-11-02 )
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that there’s a mixed outlook for the pair EUR/JPY. The matter is that Fibonacci support at 111.75 is holding, but the moving averages have crossed signaling the selling. The specialists believe that the rising daily Ichimoku cloud might provide some support.
All in all, Mizuho specialists remain bearish expecting that the single currency will get down to 111.50 and 110.50. Stop order should be placed at 113.35. The pair EUR/JPY is currently trading in the 112.60 area.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...3f_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/JPY
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Japan away on Holiday for Culture Day ! Wed, Nov 3 2010
Quiet holiday thinned, US elections + Fed FOMC markets, with Japan away on Holiday for Culture Day. USD/JPY at 80.67-70, still locked in tight range, with 2-way Japanese orders - as Japanese importers/ corporates likely to leave orders to buy on dips. BoJ likely to be watching markets, despite the holiday. Offers at 81.00-10, capping topside - not surprised to hear Asian sovereign, Korean, Asian CBs offers in USD/JPY - given reports of BoK and Asian CBs intervention to cap rise of their local units.. EUR/JPY back above 113 handle on back of EUR strength, but interest to sell on rallies. Offers at 113.40-50, bids at 112.50, vulnerable to downside on eurozone concerns.WL
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Market analysis "UBS: yuan will gradually strengthen" ( 2010-11-03 )
Analysts at UBS believe that Chinese yuan will keep gradually strengthening. In their view, this may happen due to multiple reasons, among which are the necessity to defuse international currency tensions and reduce the threat of trade protectionism, as well as to fight inflation and adjust the country’s economic structure.
However, China is expected to stay firm on its current monetary policy ignoring the external calls for faster and larger appreciation of its national currency as its monetary authorities are concerned about the state of the country’s exports sector.
UBS specialists believe that yuan’s trade-weighted index will rise by 5%/year during the next few years, while the pair USD/CNY will be trading at 6.5000-6.5500 by the end of 2010 and at 6.2000 by the end of the next year.
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Market analysis "SocGen: invest in emerging market currencies and bon" ( 2010-11-03 )
Analysts at Societe Generale SA expect that the demand for the emerging-market currencies and bonds that offer investors higher yields is likely to surge due to the huge monetary inflows from developed nations where the rates are close to zero. According to EPFR Global data, $39.5 billion was poured into developing-nation bond funds during the first 9 months of the year.
The world’s economy needs rebalancing and the resulting upward pressure on the emerging markets will concern primarily the currencies significantly undervalued on fundamentals in the long-term. The specialists advise investors to buy this year Egyptian pounds, Indian rupees, Korean wons and Polish zlotys. As for the debt, Societe General recommends purchasing Egyptian, Polish, South African and Czech bonds.
SocGen economists point at the fact that the liquidity injected by central banks into financial market after monetary easing is absorbed by the investments in the emerging-market assets. As a result, if the Fed goes for the second round of quantitative easing making the greenback’s rate weaken this trend will continue in the short term.
At the same time, emerging-market equities, on the contrary, don’t seem to be a good investment decision as their profitability would lower due to monetary tightening on developing nations and strengthening of their currencies. India today raised interest rates for a sixth time in 2010 and the Polish central bank is as well expected to do so this year.
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Market analysis "RBC Capital Markets: dollar may find support after t" ( 2010-11-03 )
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the greenback may be supported in case more than one Federal Reserve policy maker object to resuming asset purchases at today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
In addition, the specialists advise investors to pay attention to the details of the Fed’s decision as a suggestion that there will be gradual increases of the monetary stimulus depending on the country’s economic performance may also help US dollar advance.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...77_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Barclays Capital: EUR/USD levels" ( 2010-11-03 )
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that the single currency was trading versus the greenback this week between 1.3860 and 1.4060. According to them, stops should be placed on the both sides of this channel.
The pair EUR/USD will lose bullish momentum only below 1.3860, claim the specialists. If euro manages to get above 1.4080 and then 1.4160, it will be able to climb to 1.45.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...61_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: USD/CHF will rebound to 0.9921" ( 2010-11-03 )
The greenback went down versus Swiss franc ahead of the FOMC decision that will be announced at 18:15 GMT.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/CHF will find support firstly at 0.9771, and then at 0.9713.
In their view, US dollar is going to recover to the 55-day MA in the 0.9921 area. If the pair closes above these levels, it will manage to rise to the parity and then to Fibonacci retracement at 1.0118 and 1.0330.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...da_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 USD/CHF
Last News
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Market analysis "UniCredit advises to buy euro after the Fed" ( 2010-11-03 )
Strategists at UniCredit believe that the amount of the Federal Reserve’s bond purchase announced today will be equal to $300-$500 billion.
In their view, the pair EUR/USD may get below 1.40 right after the FOMC meeting.
The specialists regard such move of the rate as the opportunity to buy euro expecting that the single currency will rise to 1.43 in the fourth quarter.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...6f_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
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- 3rd prize – 111 USD
The idea of the contest is pretty straight forward: each participant gets a demo account with 9999 USD balance in it and 1:100 leverage. You can trade 12 major currency pairs and EAs are allowed.
3 participants with the highest deposits by the end of the contest period are announced the winners. It will be them who will withdrawable receive prizes from FBS. And the contestant with the lowest deposit will get a free FBS MasterCard.
We will run this contest monthly. The 1st contest will take place during 15.11.2010 – 15.12.2010.
Pre-registration for the contest will be open since the 1st of November 2010.
Hurry up to take part and win!
Contest rules
- A contestant can have only one contest account
- To take part in the contest, please follow this link
- Initial contest account deposit is 9999 USD
- Contest account leverage is 1:100
- It is prohibited to open or set any orders on the contest account before and after the contest. In case there are any opened positions on the demo account before the contest – they will be automatically closed.
- It is prohibited to use the same IP address on 2 different contest accounts. In case IP match is detected both accounts will be disqualified.
- It is prohibited to work via proxies or any other software modifying the real IP address.
- Logins and passwords for contest demo accounts lost by the participants can not be restored
- The prizes are paid to the contestants’ real account and are withdrawable. Each contestant must have a real account in order to take part in the contest.
- Any Contest Rules violation is a subject to disqualification
- In case a participant provides intentionally false registration data, the contest account will be disqualified and no prizes will be paid. FBS reserves a right to demand real account authorization BEFORE paying the prizes.
- If there are 2 or more winners in the contest, they will share the prize equally
- A contestant can win (1st,2nd or 3rd prizes) only once. If a he/she becomes a winner again, only 10% of the prize is paid to him/her.
- In case the prize funds are used for real trading, the withdrawable profit from the account can not exceed 300% of the prize.
- The contest will be started with no less than 50 participants
FBS reserves a right to
- Disqualify any participant in case of Contest Rules violation without prior notification
- Cancel or re-calculate the participant’s orders and/or prizes in case of Contest Rules violation without prior notification
- Use any information related to the winners’ accounts for advertizing and publish it on forum, company’s website or other media
- All the arguments are settled by FBS. The decisions are final and can not be reviewed.
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Hello All Participate in " FBS Demo Contest ( 999 ) "
Here is the link http://www.fbs.com/themes/fbsnew/ima...art_en_new.gif
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Pre-registration for the FBS Demo 999 contest will be open since the 1st of Nov 2010
Hello Dear All !
Pre-registration for the FBS Demo 999 contest will be open since the 1st of November 2010.
Contest Duration :- 22.11.2010 – 21.12.2010
Take part today and you can win:-
- 1st prize – 555 USD
- 2nd prize – 333 USD
- 3rd prize – 111 USD
- 3 participants with the highest deposits by the end of the contest period are announced the winners. It will be them who will withdrawable receive prizes from FBS.
Free Gift :- The contestant with the lowest deposit will get a free FBS MasterCard.
What are you waiting for????
Hurry up to take part and win!
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Market analysis "The Fed will buy $600 billion of assets" ( 2010-11-04 )
The Federal Open Market Committee announced yesterday that the Federal Reserve will spend $75 billion a month to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries over the next eight months through June. According to the estimates of American central bank, the planned bond buying will have approximately the same economic impact as cutting short-term interest rates by 0.75 percentage points. The FOMC kept its benchmark interest rate target for overnight interbank loans at 0-0.25%, where it has been since December 2008.
The two main goals of US monetary authorities are to reduce unemployment that has reaches 9.6% and fight deflation threat. It’s necessary to ensure that inflation that is now at around 1% on annual basis moves towards the Fed's informal 2% target.
The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the asset purchases should spur the country’s economic growth through lower borrowing costs and higher stock prices. The policymakers also left open the possibility of extending the program in case the GDP and inflation don't rebound during coming the months.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...ef_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Wells Fargo: the Fed was cautious" ( 2010-11-04 )
The greenback fell sharply trading extremely volatile right after the Fed’s statement. The pair EUR/USD hit minimum at 1.3996 and maximum at 1.4190 during one hour. However, the rate soon managed to stabilize in range 1.4100/50 before climbing today above 1.42.
Analysts at Wells Fargo claim that Investors anticipated the asset purchase program to be $500 billion over 5-6 months, while the Federal Reserve announced one for $600 billion over 8 months. So, it’s possible to say that US central bank was careful not to disappoint the market which would have caused large dollar advance and not to engage in a shock-and-awe campaign of massive Treasury purchases which would have led to a sharp and sustained dollar loss.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...69_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Citigroup: BOJ will follow the Fed" ( 2010-11-04 )
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. believe that there are strong chances that the Bank of Japan will follow the Federal Reserve and will do more monetary stimulus to support the national economy. The specialists believe that the Japanese central bank will as well increase this week asset purchases as part of its quantitative easing program that will go together with its foreign-exchange intervention campaign.
According to Citigroup, Japan will act even though dollar managed to appreciate a bit after the Fed’s decision. The pair USD/JPY is currently trading in 81 yen area, while on November 1 it hit 15-year minimum at 80.24. The strategists note that it’s necessary for the BOJ to ease influencing the market in the similar way as the Federal Reserve did. Otherwise, yen may resume its gains and renew maximums.
The European Central Bank, on the other hand, made clear that it’s not going to follow the Fed. As for the UK, Citigroup believes that British fundamentals don’t require easing as much as the growth and inflation data in US or Japan do.
The Bank of Japan will meet on November 4-5 instead of November 15-16 as it was scheduled before.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...50_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 USD/JPY