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Market analysis "Commerzbank: below $1.6185 pound risks falling" ( 2010-11-15 )
The pair GBP/USD has now survived 3 attempts of the bears to break down its 20-day MA at 1.5976. As a result, technical analysts at Commerzbank see further consolidation as quite possible.
At the same time the specialists warn that there are significant downside risks as long as pound trades below Fibonacci resistance at 1.6185, so the 20-day MA may be tested again and sterling can drop below 1.5950 to 1.58.
GBP/USD is currently trading in the 1.6080 area.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...25_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "UniCredit: pound will rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62 (15 11 10)
Analysts at UniCredit SpA expect British pound to appreciate. Their assumptions are based on the fact that investors may increase demand for sterling regarding it as safer currency than euro is. The specialists are citing the deteriorating of the euro zone’s debt crisis, the concerns about Irish banking sector its possible implications for the 2011 Irish budget in particular.
According to UniCredit, when European investors choose sterling they theoretically remain in the European Union hedging themselves against euro-zone-specific risks. The strategists think that pound may rise to 84 pence per euro and $1.62.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...d3_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/GBP
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Market analysis "Citigroup: euro will rise to $1.45 in 2011" (2010-11-16)
Analysts at Citigroup Inc. note that the single currency that showed last week the biggest 5-day loss versus the greenback since August may rebound to its January levels. The specialists believe that investors will react optimistically to any bailout for Ireland will and the concerns about the debt crisis in the euro area will ease. As a result, the market’s attention will once again focus on the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures and US dollar will resume trading within a downtrend.
Citigroup specialists regard the current decline of euro that’s close to its recent minimums as a good buying opportunity. The European currency’s expected to climb to $1.45 at the beginning of 2011 that’s above November 4 high at $1.4282.
It’s necessary to point out that Ireland had the highest euro-region budget deficit in 2009 at 14.45% of GDP. Irish authorities are currently trying to convince financial markets that the country doesn’t need any external financial help but the other members of the EU pressure it for accepting aid in order to calm volatility that made borrowing costs of indebted European countries surge to record maximums.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...29_500_0_0.jpg
Сhart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Forecast Pte: dollar will climb to 84.47 yen" (2010-11-16)
Technical analysts at Forecast Pte expect the greenback to rise to the 7-week maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists note that the pair USD/JPY closed last week above 82.19 yen level representing resistance of descending trend line that connects the maximums of May 5, June 4 and September 17.
US currency broke through its 50-day MA at 82.67 yen that used to cap so far its upward movements. The short-term trend for USD/JPY is bullish, momentum is up and the pair is free to climb to the 100-day average at 84.47 yen.
Dollar’s rate added 3.6% from a 15-year minimum at 80.22 yen hit on November 1. Last week the greenback gained 1.6% showing its biggest advance since September 17. The US currency’s MACD was today at 0.0753, above the signal line that was found at minus 0.2724, that’s another sign that dollar is going to advance against yen.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...25_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Market analysis "UBS: US dollar forecast’s increased" (2010-11-16)
Currency strategists at UBS AG increased their one-month forecasts for the greenback as US economic data improves, while the concerns about debt crisis in the euro area strengthen making investors prefer dollars.
The forecast for US dollar versus the single currency in a month was lifted up from $1.40 to $1.30 per euro. The pair USD/JPY is now expected to trade at 85 yen in one month, while the previous estimate was at 80 yen.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...16_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...d5_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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Market analysis "BNY Mellon: euro will remain under pressure" (2010-11-16)
Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. expect the single currency to lose on the prospects of Ireland’s getting bailout from the EU.
The specialists believe that investors’ concerns about the problems in Irish banking system and the austerity measures have reached the point when they don’t believe that the country will be able to get out of the crisis on its own. The European Union and the European Central Bank are worrying about of the risk of contagion.
The uncertainty will disappear only when there will be a clear decision on Ireland. Until it happens euro will stay under downward pressure and the greenback will be poised to advance.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...eb_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: dollar will gain versus yen" (2010-11-16)
The greenback recovered from 15-year minimum at 80.20 rising yesterday to the 83.00 area and closing the day above the 55-day MA at 82.70/87, September minimum and the 6-month downtrend channel. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that such move of the rate means that it’s going to keep climbing.
According to the specialists, if US dollar advances, it will manage to get to 85.94 and 88.00/02 (200-day ma). The declines of the US currency will be limited by the 20-day MA at 81.49.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...7a_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Okasan Securities: USD/JPY will rise to 86.00 yen" (2010-11-17)
Currency strategists at Okasan Securities are certain that the pair USD/JPY will remain strong for some time. The specialists claim that the greenback may rise versus Japanese yen during the coming weeks to 86.00 that’s the level reached right after September currency intervention of Japanese monetary authorities.
According to Okasan Securities, technical levels with plenty of stop-loss buying orders are found at 84.00, 85.00 and 86.00.
Among factors helping US dollar strengthen there are declining commodity prices, increasing US Treasury yields and the deepening concerns about the euro-zone’s debt crisis.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...c4_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Danske Bank: market comments" (2010-11-17)
Strategists at Danske Bank note that the market is still focused on Irish debt problems that continue weighting on euro’s rate.
The specialists believe that the single currency isn’t ready to react to some positive unexpected data. After yesterday’s surprisingly strong ZEW the pair EUR/USD rose only by 30 pips.
If Ireland keeps refusing to take financial aid from the European Union, the crisis risks spreading to other indebted euro area’s countries.
Danske analysts also claim that it’s necessary to pay attention to today’s Bank of England’s meeting. According to them, downside risk for British pound is limited as UK central bank is quite unlikely to go into further monetary easing.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...44_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD will consolidate at current level" (2010-11-17)
Yesterday the single currency continued declining versus the greenback. The pair EUR/USD broke through the 55-day MA at 1.3577 to the 50% retracement of the advance from August.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the near-term consolidation of the pair at the current levels seems to be quite possible as the market attempts to compensate recent losses.
The specialists note that the bulls will face resistance at 1.3645, 1.3765/75, which together with 1.3851 (20 day-ma) will limit the rate on the upside. The European currency risks lowering to 1.3365/35 support (38.2% retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...a3_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Citi: pound will decline versus the greenback" (2010-11-17)
Analysts at Citi advise investors to look forward to more declines of British pound versus the greenback.
According to the bank, even though pound was the best performer among G10 currencies during the last five days, it yesterday’s drop from the day’s maximum at 1.6086 to the minimum at 1.5839 suggests that sterling’s going to catch-up with the drop in other dollar crosses.
If the market’s risk aversion keeps increasing, pound will correct downwards in the near term.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...e5_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 GBP/USD
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Today in the end of Hajj Muslims throughout the world celebrate Eid al-Adha. It is the most celebrated holiday in Islam. It represents the end of the pilgrimage to the Islamic sacred places and reminds of the eternal values for any confession: justice, kindness, mercy and care.:)
FBS would like to congratulate all our Muslim clients on this important spiritual holiday and wish peace, harmony and happiness to your home. Let your families always have love, respect and prosperity. :)
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Market analysis "JPMorgan&Chase: dollar will fall to 75 yen in 2011" (2010-11-18)
Analysts at JPMorgan & Chase Co. are sure that the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing policy is making US dollar the world’s “weakest currency”. The specialists expect that the greenback will fall to 75 yen in 2011. The lowest level of the pair USD/JPY was hit at 79.75 yen in April 1995. The minimal rate since then was at 80.22 yen on November 1.
US, Japanese and European central banks will keep rates next year at the minimal levels in order to spur the growth of their economies, while the Fed is likely to take additional easing steps following the $600 billion bond-purchase program announced this month depending on inflation and the labor market. JPMorgan strategists also reminded that the United States has the world’s largest current-account deficit. Even if the US prolongs easing it won’t increase inflationary pressures as the balance sheets of banks and households are still damaged by the global financial crisis.
According to JPMorgan, 10-year Treasury yields may drop from 2.89% today to 2.25% over the next year and their premium over similar-maturity Japanese yields won’t widen. Loose policy of the key central banks flooding the market with extra liquidity will correspond to 3% advance of the global economy in 2011 as it happened in 2004-2004 when stocks and commodities surged on improving risk appetite and dollar lost 25% versus yen. The rebound of the world’s economy encouraging risk sentiment will make investors reduce their demand for Japanese currency that will decline against other currencies beside the dollar to levels last seen in early 2007.
The analysts also believe that Japan’s monetary authorities won’t intervene again at the currency market as it did on September 15 when the national currency rose to 15-year maximum even if yen appreciates versus US dollar due to the international criticism of foreign-exchange intervention.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...20_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Danske Bank: EUR/USD will lower to $1.34 in a month" (2010-11-18)
Analysts at Danske Bank believe that the pair EUR/USD will trade in a month at $1.34.
In their view, there may be several factors that could make the single currency stabilize versus the greenback in the near term. These factors include the solving of Ireland’s funding question and the following decrease of the risk of the crisis’ spreading to other indebted euro zone countries. It’s also important that the global risk sentiment wouldn’t be determined only by the concerns about the situation of the peripheral European nations.
In addition, US yields have to correct lower. The 2-year EUR-USD swap spread has stabilized just below 100 basis points after it narrowed due to the Fed’s announcement about the beginning of QE2.
Danske specialists note that these factors haven’t realized yet, so they believe euro will find itself under negative pressure. That’s why their one-month forecast is for the European currency’s drop to $1.34.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...24_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD won’t be able to overcome 1.3850" (2010-11-18)
The single currency was gaining versus the greenback during the last 2 days. Euro managed to rebound getting above 1.3600. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note, however, that it won’t be able to get much higher and, on the contrary, risks falling to 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the August peak) and then to the 200-day MA at 1.3138.
The specialists claim that the pair EUR/USD will face interim resistance at 1.3645 and 1.3765/75 and its attempts to climb higher will be limited by the 20-day SMA in the 1.3850 zone.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...9c_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "UBS: euro may fall to $1.10" (2010-11-18)
Currency strategists at UBS AG expect that the single currency may fall below long-term support at 1.1000 during the coming months.
According to them, euro is likely to trade within the downtrend as the European Central Bank will be forced to keep its monetary policy extremely loose because the euro zone nations will be tightening their fiscal belts. Moreover, a lot of private institutions are increasing short positions on euro encouraging public investment firms to follow their example that’s even more strengthening negative pressure on the pair EUR/USD.
UBS specialists advise investors to buy EUR/USD put-spread with 6-month expiry, strike at $1.1000, $1.000. Recommended trade's cost is 0.9025% with reference spot at 1.2190.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...eb_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Monthly EUR/USD
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Market analysis " Barclays Capital: sell EUR/CHF on growth to 1.36" (2010-11-19)
At the beginning of the week the pair EUR/CHF showed a daily reversal signal. However, strategists at Barclays Capital claim that the weekly reversal signal posted 2 weeks ago seems to be stronger. If their assumption is correct the single currency will trade between 1.32 and 1.36 against its Swiss counterpart. The bank advises to sell euro as its rate approaches the upper border of this range.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...30_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/CHF
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Market analysis " Ueda Harlow: euro will rise to $1.40" (2010-11-19)
Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. claim that the single currency that’s rebounding for the third day in a row may climb to $1.40.
The specialists note that if euro managed to break above resistance created by the top of the Ichimoku Cloud at $1.365 and is currently struggling to overcome the conversion line at $1.3711 that is the last resistance ahead of $1.40. The base line is situated at $1.3865.
The last time the pair EUR/USD reached at $1.40 was at November 8 before it went down to hit on November 16 the minimal level since September 28 at $1.3448.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...69_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: resistance for GBP/USD is at 1.6185" (2010-11-19)
British currency recovered from Tuesday’s minimum at 1.5840 getting above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Friday/Tuesday decline.
Never the less, technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the outlook for sterling will be negative as long as the pair GBP/USD trades below 1.6185. The specialists regard the upward move of the pound’s rate as correction. According to them, general trend’s still descending with resistance in place at 1.6185.
If the pair fell below 1.5859/1.5790 support area, it will be poised to fall to 1.5680/50 (October minimum) which in its turn would trigger the slump to the 200-day MA at 1.5340.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...2a_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "UBS: USD/CHF didn’t manage to get above 0.9972" (2010-11-19)
Analysts at UBS AG draw investor’s attention to the fact that the pair USD/CHF stumbled again unable to overcome 0.9972 and retreated downwards.
The specialists note that the upside momentum seems too weak to push US dollar’s rate above the parity with Swiss franc. As a result, claims UBS, resistance at 0.9972 has become only stronger.
The pair USD/CHF is currently trading in the 0.9896 area.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...29_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 USD/CHF
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD" (2010-11-22)
Weekly GBP/USD
One more week on the GBP/USD market ended in favor of bears. On the weekly price chart, however, the Turning line managed to act as a support (3) pointing at the continuing uptrend.
The Preceding lines switched the Cloud upwards and the Senkou Span A (1) was also poised for growth.
As a result, this week the rate may bounce up. There are doubts only about the location of the Chinkou Span found in the area of the maximal deviation from the price chart as it may lead to the consolidation at the current levels.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...54_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Weekly GBP/USD
Daily GBP/USD
As it was expected, on the daily chart the Standard line was tested at the beginning of the week. Kijun-sen (4), however, didn’t manage to hold the bears. As a result, the prices broke it down on Tuesday and then even consolidated below its level.
On Thursday the rate returned to the positive area going even through Tenkan-sen. It’s possible that the correction will finish soon and that we may see the end of the uptrend as the Ichimoku Cloud is going up.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...7a_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily GBP/USD
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY" (2010-11-22)
Weekly USD/JPY
The bulls keep actively buying US dollar versus Japanese yen. The rate has already broken up through Tenkan-sen (3). If the prices consolidate above this level the pair USD/JPY may survive further rebound to the Standard line (4).
Never the less, the bears aren’t likely to give up their positions. The global bearish sentiment of the market will make the rate bounce downwards and only after this the greenback may resume rebounding.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...69_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Weekly USD/JPY
Daily USD/JPY
On the daily chart the prices got inside the Cloud as they almost instantly broke through its bottom. The strong “golden cross” (5) formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen was pushing the rate since the beginning of the week – the pair didn’t return to the Turning lien as it was expected.
The rapid rebound of US dollar let the rate break the Chinkou Span through the body of a black candle. In addition, Senkou Span A also kept narrowing the Kumo range.
So, the market’s aiming to show further growth. It’s possible to expect that USD/JPY will overcome the upper border of the Cloud this week. Before that, however, the market may sag a bit as Tenkan and Kijun are directed sideways (3, 4).
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...1c_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/JPY
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Market analysis "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF" (2010-11-22)
Weekly USD/CHF
The greenback keeps rebounding versus Swiss franc as well. During the past week the prices managed to break through the Turning line (3) into Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4).
The situation, however, didn’t change much – almost all the lines remained in the same positions as a week ago: Tenkan (3) and Senkou Span A (1) are directed downwards, while Kijun-sen (4) and Senkou Span B (2) are horizontal. That means that the main trend at the market is bearish.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...29_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Weekly USD/CHF
Daily USD/CHF
On the daily chart the situation may change any time as the prices approached the upper border of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.
Before that the prices have rapidly broken through the Senkou Span A. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have formed again the “golden cross” (5) and also headed upwards. That means that the short-term trend’s strongly bullish.
In addition, Senkou Span A (1) keeps narrowing the Kumo range that’s also positively influencing the sentiment of the market’s players.
This week the prices may be found outside the Cloud, above Senkou Span B.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...6a_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily USD/CHF
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Market analysis "Ireland will accept aid from EU and IMF" (2010-11-22)
The single currency rose today to one-week maximum versus the greenback as the European Union finance ministers announced that a capital fund will be established to rescue Irish banks.
As a result Ireland’s going to be the second country getting bailout the EU and the IMF. The European Central Bank yesterday expressed confidence that the support of the European monetary authorities will help Ireland to restore stability of its banking system.
According to Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, the negotiations on the financial aid package will be completed in the next few weeks. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan estimates the loan to be less than 100 billion euro ($137 billion).
Strategists at ANZ National Bank Ltd. note that Ireland’s deal will bring relief to markets only in the near-term, while it will soon become clear that the euro area’s problems won’t be solved quickly.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...5b_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H1 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/CHF is moving towards 1.3798" (2010-11-22)
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency is moving up versus the greenback towards 200-day MA at 1.3798. In their view this level and the 4-month resistance line at 1.3812 will be strong enough to hold the initial attempt the bulls to get higher.
As for the longer term, the dynamics of the EUR/CHF rate is regarded as a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. If euro closes above 1.3812, it will be able to climb to 1.4000 pivot and beyond.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...fd_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/CHF
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Market analysis "Commerzbank: EUR/USD will reverse at 1.3865/1.3965" (2010-11-22)
Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the current advance of the single currency from the minimums in 1.3445/55 area hit last week as a correction reaction to the longer-term downtrend.
According to the specialists, euro’s growth will continue above 1.3775 to cap at 1.3865/1.3965 levels representing 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. Then the pair EUR/USD is likely to reverse slipping to 1.3365/35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the August peak) and then to 1.3139 (200-day MA).
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...5b_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "Irish bailout won’t solve euro zone’s problems" (2010-11-22)
Strategists at Barclays Capital claim that despite the fact that Ireland formally applied for an EU/IMF bailout the contagion risk for the other peripheral European nations didn’t decrease – Portugal’s yield spread with Germany mimics the pattern of Spanish spreads.
The same opinion is shared by the specialists at Danske Bank. In their view, any rebound in the single currency will be less than its advance after the Greek bailout.
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the program of financial help for Ireland may raise the risk of social unrest as the loan will be granted on the conditions of policy tightening. Most of concerns are connected with the risk that some European governments may force Ireland to increase its 12.5% corporate tax rate.
Economists at UBS AG are bearish on euro and note that it’s going to take years for the fiscal issues of certain euro zone countries to be resolved. According to them, the pair EUR/USD will trade $1.25 by the end of January.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...9f_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 EUR/USD
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Market analysis "BNP Paribas: pound may rise to $1.63" (2010-11-22)
Currency strategists at BNP Paribas advise investors to buy British pounds versus the greenback. According to them, the potential Irish bailout seems to be quite positive for UK banking sector.
The specialist note that the pair GBP/USD has broken through the key resistance at 1.6030. Sterling may climb to 1.6120 and possibly to 1.63, claims BNP.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...64_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. H4 GBP/USD
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Market analysis "Mizuho: euro may climb to 116.60 yen" (2010-11-22)
Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that a small gap higher above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud means that the pair EUR/JPY has strength to break above the broad range within which it was trading since May.
The specialists note that if the single currency manages to hold above the moving averages or close the week above 115.00 bullish momentum will increase letting euro overcome 116.25 level completing a large “broadening bottom” pattern.
According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to buy at 114.80 stopping below 113.20. First target is at 115.50, then 116.60.
http://www.fbs.com/upload/image/tech...7c_500_0_0.jpg
Chart. Daily EUR/JPY
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