The End of Dollar Domination

[itu]

The U.S. occupies a special place in the global economy. We hold the world’s reserve currency. The dollar dominates because the dollar denominates.

Everybody accepts U.S. dollars; everyone wants U.S. dollars. This gives the U.S. many advantages like lowered exchange rate risk and increased buying power, but this won’t last forever.

Historically, one country has held the dominant reserve currency for about 100 years (give or take 20 years). Although the U.S. was formally declared the reserve currency after World War II, it was informally used as the reserve currency since the 1920s after World War I.

That’s 100 years...

Again, these things don’t happen overnight. It’s a slow-moving transition that’s obvious only after a few decades have passed, but I think the days of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency are coming to an end.

This shouldn't be cause for fear or alarm as we're resilient. We'll tiptoe through these troubled times, and we'll emerge stronger as a result.

What’s more, I think we can do better.

The positive aspect of holding the world reserve currency is that the U.S. has been able to help provide stability and confidence in the financial system.

The negative aspect is that it concentrates power and influence in the U.S., sometimes at the expense of smaller and weaker nations.

Moreover, when the U.S. financial system looks shaky (as it has the past few days), it causes reverberations throughout the world.

I believe we’ll look back on the days of reserve currencies as a kind of “financial colonialism,” where one country had outsized power to exercise its will on smaller, weaker nations. I suspect we'll be ashamed of this period of U.S. history. We may even try to make reparations, but that day is likely far into the future.

Of one thing we can be sure... The days of the U.S. dollar's dominance will eventually come to an end. History shows us it's not a question of if, but when.

When the U.S. dollar is dethroned, what will replace it?” - John Hargrave


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