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  1. #1711
    Senior Investor KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Trading Signals for XAU/USD (GOLD) for May 14-16, 2024: buy above $2,342 (21 SMA - rebound)

    Gold is trading around 2,343, around the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since early May. Gold, after a strong technical correction below 2,375, found a bottom around 2,330 which gave it an opportunity to recover.

    The H4 chart shows that gold could resume its bullish cycle if it consolidates above 2,340 or 2,330 in the coming days.

    If gold keeps its uptrend channel intact, a technical bounce around 2,330 would be a key point to buy with targets at 2,375 and 2,392. At this level, gold left a GAP on April 18 and the price is likely to reach this area so the GAP will be covered in the next few days.

    If gold breaks and consolidates below 2,330, the outlook could be negative and we could expect a change in trend. Therefore, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 2,312 and the 200 EMA located at 2,301.

    We believe that in the next few hours, gold could gain momentum and we can look for opportunities to buy, only if it settles above 2,330. Any pullback in the price will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 2,355, 2,375, and 2,392.

    On May 10, the eagle indicator reached the oversold zone and we believe that gold could resume its bullish cycle as we see a relief in the bearish pressure so that gold could continue to rise.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  2. #1712
    Senior Investor maspluto's Avatar
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    Choosing a broker must be done carefully, as the broker acts as a bridge enabling traders to engage in forex trading. This is why I chose to join Tickmill, allowing me to trade comfortably and safely.

  3. #1713
    Senior Investor KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Powell reassures investors: Nasdaq closes at record high, with focus on price index

    The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high on Tuesday amid the close, while the S&P 500 and Dow also posted gains as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors ahead of a major consumer inflation report expected on Wednesday.

    Producer prices in the US rose more than expected in April, especially due to significant increases in prices for services and goods, which forced investors to reconsider expectations for a reduction in interest rates in September.

    However, speaking on Tuesday, Powell characterized the latest PPI data as mixed rather than an indication that the economy is warming, taking into account downward revisions to data from the previous period as well.

    Powell's comment that he doesn't expect any near-term interest rate hikes despite recent data on high inflation also added to investor optimism.

    "The market is now more confident in high rates over the long term. Much of the discussion has centered on the possibility of rate hikes, and Powell emphasized that this is not currently on the table," said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at Charlotte, North Carolina-based 248 Ventures. She also noted that the rise in stocks was observed against the backdrop of falling Treasury yields.

    "The bond market seems to be adapting and the stock market is responding to the bond market," Bell added.

    However, ahead of Wednesday, investors were cautiously awaiting consumer price index data to see whether the surprise growth recorded in the first quarter and April would continue.

    Persistent inflation and a stable labor market have prompted a revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve's initial rate cut from March to September.

    However, the stock market has posted strong gains this year on the back of strong, better-than-expected quarterly earnings and the prospect of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

    While the tech-heavy Nasdaq index made a strong run to its record set on April 11, the S&P 500 ended the trading day 0.1% below its closing high on March 28. Likewise, the Dow Jones closed at less than 1% of its record high, also reached on March 28.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 126.60 points, or 0.32%, to 39,558.11. The S&P 500 added 25.26 points, or 0.48%, to 5,246.68, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 122.94 points, or 0.75%, to 16,511.18.

    Among the 11 key industrial sectors in the S&P index, consumer staples posted the biggest decline, losing 0.2%, while the technology sector led gains, adding 0.9%.

    Alphabet (GOOGL.O) shares rose 0.7% after Google showed off innovations in its use of artificial intelligence, including an update to its Gemini chatbot and improvements to its search engine.

    Home Depot (HD.N) shares closed down 0.1% after falling more than 2% on the day. The decline followed the retailer's quarterly report, which showed an unexpected decline in same-store sales as consumers switched to smaller home projects and cut spending on big-ticket items.

    Alibaba's US-traded shares fell 6% after announcing an 86% drop in fourth-quarter profit.

    Shares of athletic footwear maker On Holding jumped 18.3% after the company raised its full-year sales forecast ahead of quarterly expectations thanks to strong demand for its sneakers.

    US President Joe Biden has announced steep tariff increases on imports of a range of Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products.

    Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto, also listed in the U.S., fell more than 2%, while shares of Tesla (TSLA.O) rose more than 3%.

    AMC Entertainment (AMC.N) shares soared nearly 32% to $6.85, while Koss Corp (KOSS.O) shares rose 40.7% to $6.15, among other stocks popular during the 2021 meme rally. year and shares in a short position.

    On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), AMC and GameStop were the most actively traded stocks, with advancers outnumbering decliners 2.43 to 1, with 358 new highs and 31 new lows.

    Asian stock markets were higher on Wednesday, while the US dollar weakened as investors digested mixed US producer price data and awaited a key consumer price report that could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's near-term monetary policy.

    MSCI's broad index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.38% to hit a new 15-month high during the trading session. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.58%.

    The latest data showed U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in April, indicating persistent inflation at the start of the second quarter.

    Shares of GameStop (GME.N) and AMC (AMC.N), popular among retail investors, jumped significantly after messages from Keith Gill, known as "Growling Kitten", leading to discussions about the possible return of a key figure of the 2021 meme rally.

    In the Chinese market, stocks started the day lower, with the blue-chip index .CSI300 down 0.16% and the Hang Seng Index .HSI in Hong Kong down 0.22%.

    US President Joe Biden announced significant tariff hikes on some Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, computer chips and medical products.

    In currency markets, the dollar continued to slide as investors held back action ahead of consumer price index data, while the euro neared its one-month high, last trading at $1.0817.

    The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies, was seen at 105.01. The yen traded at 156.36 per dollar, having hit a two-week low of 156.80 on Tuesday, raising fears of new currency interventions by Japanese regulators.

    On April 29, the yen fell to a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar, followed by aggressive yen buying that traders and analysts speculated was carried out by the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

    Commodity prices rose in response to the threat of major wildfires in Canada's oil sands and ahead of expected declines in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories later in the day.

    The US WTI crude oil price rose 0.4% to $82.71 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $78.39 a barrel. The spot price of gold remained virtually unchanged at $2,356.79 per ounce.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  4. #1714
    Senior Investor KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maspluto View Post
    Choosing a broker must be done carefully, as the broker acts as a bridge enabling traders to engage in forex trading. This is why I chose to join Tickmill, allowing me to trade comfortably and safely.
    Hello! The forum thread is dedicated to the Forexmart company. If you have any questions, I will be glad to answer them.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

  5. #1715
    Senior Investor Uncle Gober's Avatar
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    Learning is very important, which is why I continue to study everything and develop all existing skills so that I can grow and trade optimally with Tickmill.

  6. #1716
    Senior Investor KostiaForexMart's Avatar
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    USD loses its downward momentum

    Today, the dollar index is trying to limit the falls of the last few days and is above 104.2. The EUR/USD exchange rate approached the 1.0900 mark.

    This is more of an emotional outburst. The markets are evaluating the new inflation figures in the US. Already today, emotions should subside, as traders will start analyzing the situation with a cool head.

    After the inflation publication, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis confirmed that it will probably be necessary to keep the rate at the current level for some more time and expressed doubts about how much it is holding the US economy back.

    Experts at the Bank of America remain in the same position, believing that the first rate cut will not occur until December. To cut the rate in September, it is necessary that inflation slows further or labor market data weaken even more.

    Still, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.32% on Wednesday, the lowest level since early April, as softer inflation data gives the Fed more flexibility to cut rates this year.

    The dollar index has weakened over the past few days. The DXY is now near the price lows of April (103.95), which is the nearest support level. Perhaps within this range, the dollar's weakening will temporarily slow down. At least that is the picture we see now.

    When will the Fed cut rates?

    The main question is when the Fed will lower interest rates. This is of interest to analysts and financial market observers. According to analysis and forecasts, the likely month to start cutting rates is still September, as key elements of US inflation have started to show declines.

    DNB Markets writes that they believed that current data would not change the likelihood of a rate cut in the autumn, provided inflation data remained moderate and labor market conditions continued to improve. Their forecasts indicate that the market expects the first rate cut in September.

    According to inflation data released on Wednesday, overnight index swaps, which reflect traders' expectations of future interest rates, show that the market now fully appreciates the likelihood of a rate cut in September.

    Two weeks ago, the first cut was not expected until December.

    In 2024, expectations for a Fed rate cut have fallen significantly due to higher inflation in the first quarter of the year. Signals have emerged that some elements of the inflation basket will resist a change.

    This boosted US bond yields and the US dollar in currency markets. Such a situation could happen again.

    Until core inflation (excluding housing costs) and housing costs decline, the overall inflation rate will not be able to hold steady at the Fed's 2.0% target.

    Housing costs, which account for about 40% of the overall consumer price index, have risen as a result of steady increases in home prices and rents in recent years.

    However, PNC Bank says the April 2024 consumer price report may bring some relief to Fed policymakers, as the most stable housing and core services segments of the CPI showed the first signs of softening in a long time.

    The core CPI declined to 0.2% month-over-month, and house price growth was just +0.2% month-over-month, the lowest since January 2021 (+0.6%).

    PNC's forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, in September and December, now seems more reasonable than earlier in 2024.

    Other analysts are expressing a similar view. Berenberg believes the current inflation data makes it slightly more likely that the Fed will start cutting rates sooner.

    "We continue to expect one 25-bp rate cut in December and three further such moves next year to bring the Fed funds target rate to 4.25–4.50%," Berenberg wrote.

    Economists at Wells Fargo and Pantheon Macroeconomics also share this view. It takes some favorable inflation indicators for the Fed to feel confident about a rate cut. The first rate cut is possible at the FOMC meeting in September.

    Pantheon Macroeconomics argues that the case for expecting a further slowdown in core inflation remains strong. Supply chains have stabilized, wage growth is slowing, and corporate margins remain strong, pointing to the outlook for the future.

    Economists also note the lack of threat from global food and energy prices, as well as subdued rent growth and lower car prices. This indicates a slowdown in auto insurance inflation.

    Thus, the stage is set for a further slowdown in the core CPI this summer, allowing the Fed to begin easing in September.

    With the market consensus increasingly leaning toward a September rate cut, all eyes will be on upcoming macroeconomic data that could confirm these expectations.
    Regards, ForexMart PR Manager

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