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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 30, 2017
The USD/CAD pair closed down the week on a much lower note as compared to the previous trading week after the Canadian dollar exhibited strength across the board and the USD weakened in value yet again even though it was able to recover during the latter part of the week. This particular recovery of the US dollar looks like it will be here for the long run, and this is why dollar bulls are putting added confidence to the performance of the US dollar in the next trading sessions. In addition, the Trump administration has already went about making changes and fulfilling its campaign promises, such as the shifts in Obamacare and the Mexican border wall, and the pulling out of US from trading agreements with Canada and other neighboring countries. This has created unrest in the market, and could open the doors for a possible trade war which is very bad news even for the US economy.
This has then prompted the USD/CAD pair to drop significantly in value from 1.3450 to 1.3000 points, but was saved by the sudden surge in the USD’s value as the previous week came to a close. The Canadian dollar also received support from the resiliency of oil prices, which managed to stay put in spite of the recent increase in the value of the US dollar. Market players are expecting this uptick in the USD/CAD to continue and could possibly extend up to 1.4000if it manages to stay just above 1.3000 points.
The Canadian GDP will be released this week, and governor Poloz from the Bank of Canada will also be releasing a statement this week. On the other hand, US will be releasing a string of important economic data including the NFP, wage earnings, as well as the statement from the FOMC. These are all expected to induce volatility in the market, and traders should either exercise caution or wait for things to settle before trading with this currency pair.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017
The market has been generally expecting the USD/CAD pair to undergo a period of ranging and consolidation as the US prepares to release its NFP report, and this was what happened with this particular currency pair during the past trading sessions. The USD/CAD is currently trading at over 1.3000 and is headed in a generally disappointing trading streak, but then again this region has strong support barriers, and this region might be a good place for traders to go long with a stop loss.
Oil prices have already settled down last month and has exhibited little activity on both directions. As a result, the Canadian dollar was able to obtain some support and the economic data scheduled to be released from Canada are also expected to be generally positive, and there are no major changes expected to occur within the Canadian economy. The drop in the value of the USD/CAD was mainly due to the weakness of the dollar, and once Trump makes major changes in the NAFTA agreement, then the trade relationship between US and Canada could be up for some major adjustments. This has no positive effect on both economies whatsoever, and this uncertainty has been fueling the drop in the value of the currency pair.
There are no major news expected to be released from the Canadian economy today but the market is expecting the release of the NFP report as well as the average earnings data and the non-manufacturing PMI data from the US. If these data comes out as positive, then this could further affirm an interest rate hike from the Fed in the near future, but a weak reading could cause the USD to further decrease in value.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 3, 2017
The EUR/USD pair has been subject to a lot of messy trading activity during the past trading sessions as the pair had no definite direction and generally exhibited an uncertain trading stance. The currency pair has been vainly trying to break through the 1.0800 trading range and briefly made it through this barrier and even reached up to 1.0828 points but eventually reverted back to its original stance after a massive sell-off met the pair, causing it to fall back to 1.0800 and even went as low as just over 1.0760 points.
Today is the scheduled release date of the NFP report from the US, and the market volatility is expected to surge as this particular report is one of the major economic reports anticipated by the markets every month. The NFP report now is even more crucial than ever, because the Fed has previously stated that the central bank will be relying on positive economic data as basis for whether they will be hiking interest rates in the future or otherwise. In addition, the release of the NFP report is equally important to restore investor and trader confidence in the USD, especially since the past few days has seen the dollar subject to more weakness as Trump drew negative comments from his recently implemented foreign policies such as the immigration ban. This is one of the reasons why the general direction of the EUR/USD remains uncertain since the market wants first to confirm the results of the NFP report before making any concrete moves.
For today’s session, US will be releasing its NFP report as well as the non-manufacturing PMI data and average wage earnings data. Investors are hoping that these economic data comes out as positive in order to induce some strength in the ever-weakening stance of the US dollar.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 6, 2017
The EUR/USD pair will undergo pressure this week. Moreover, the NFP report was positive as the average earnings positioned at 0.1% lower than the expected 0.3%. When at first, it is expected for the bulls to take over the market but the trend doesn't have enough momentum bringing the price towards the 1.0800 as a resistance level which was the prior region. The greenback is being swayed because of the uncertainty from Trump and his team to change the policies and cannot be determined the next move of Euro.
The current psychological level at 1.0800 is a significant region and a break in this region could further bring the price towards the 1.12 mark which has been the region for some time last week. The market is trying to break the EUR/USD in the midst of the weakened dollar. At the same time, the market aims to stabilize the current rates but there were not enough support from the administration and economic policy changes and the reports of the economic data.
Although, a majority of the support for the currency supported from the economic data or the administration and at the same time influence the next Fed rate hike. However, it seems that the wage earnings reports are on the lows which could delay the rate hike process. This would put more pressure to the dollar today and this whole week and it is still uncertain until when the dollar rates would hold.
As for today, there will be no major economic news from the Euro or from U.S. regions. It is expected for the price to EUR/USD to remain in consolidation with a bullish bias with chances of a breakout near the 1.0800 level.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: February 8, 2017
The decline in crude oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar while the stronger US dollar added pressure to push the loonie downwards.
The USDCAD resumed a short-term uptrend on Tuesday. Moreover, the USD came in green against its Canadian peer. The spot gradually increased overnight reaching 1.3120 level prior to opening of the European session. There is a renewed buying pressure within the greens which supported the pair towards its fresh highs. The price spiked and touched 1.3190 region in the post-EU open.
The barrier restricted its developement as it holds the major enclosed the region. The price drove the 100 and 50-EMAs higher as shown in the 4-hour chart. The pair nearly reached the 200-EMA which became the resistance. Furthermore, the 50 and 100 EMAs shifted to an upward trend while 200-EMA headed lower. Resistance entered 1.3190 area, support holds 1.3120 handle.
The MACD approached the positive territory, preserving this area would mean a stronger stance for the buyers. RSI hovered around the overvalued range indicating another upward trajectory.
It is projected that a near-term bullish momentum will return. In order to resumed this bullishness, the pair should focus on top of 1.3190 mark.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 9, 2017
The USD/CAD pair is still trapped within a tight trading range, however the currency pair’s bulls are fairly satisfied with the USD/CAD’s performance as the currency pair is still relatively strong in spite of the dollar weakness, and once the dollar regains its strength, then this will mean very good news for the pair’s bulls. The USD/CAD pair has recently undergone a very stressful period due to the dollar weakness combined with a surge in oil prices which has helped the Canadian dollar keep its head above water.
As the week unfurled, the market has seen oil prices being subject to tremendous pressure and corrections, thereby putting added pressure on the value of the CAD. This is why the Canadian dollar started losing some of its value at the beginning of the week and has provided support for the USD/CAD bulls. Strengthening the currency pair and revert back from its support barrier of 1.3000, with the USD/CAD currently trading at just under 1.3200 points. The pair is expected to continue its upward trend and would only go in for a trend reversal once it manages to break through 1.3000 points. Until then, the USD/CAD would probably exhibit reversions from its lows and the bulls would still be dominating the currency pair, with a medium-term target of 1.4000 points.
There are no major news scheduled to be released from the Canadian economy today but we do have the unemployment claims data from the US, as well as comments from some Fed officials. However, these are not expected to make a significant dent in the pair’s current stance and the pair is expected to consolidate at 1.3200 for the rest of today’s sessions.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 13, 2017
The figures for the United Kingdom Industrial Production exceeded the expected results which further give a temporary support for the British currency. Nevertheless, the recovery of the greens is wide-ranging causing the GBPUSD to conduct a reversal.
The sterling preserved its neutral stance amid Asian session on Friday. The spot hovered on top of 1.2500 close to the handle.
Traders were able to surpass the region after the EU hours and continued to push the spot through 1.2450 area.
The 4-hour chart presented that the price drove 100 and 50-EMAs towards a lower point. The 50 and 200-EMAs seem neutral while the 100-day moving averages descended as seen in the aforesaid chart. Resistance touched 1.2500 mark, support lies at 1.2400.
MACD is placed in the centerline. An entry within the positive zone will provide added strength for the buyers while an attempt towards the negative territory will allow sellers to take over the market. The RSI stayed in the neutral region. Either a move lower than 1.2500 would help produce an opportunity to test 1.2400.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017
The strength of the USD is now felt more than ever in the market, and this has caused other major currencies to experience the negative effects of the surge in the dollar’s value. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair has dropped to 1.0600 points and was only able to prevent itself from further decreasing due to its support barrier of 1.0580 points. However, the pair’s price activity looks very dismal and it is uncertain how long the bulls would be able to keep its hold on the pair before the bears manage to seize control and push the pair further downward. If this happens, then this could spell disaster for the euro.
The market is now able to fully adjust to Trump’s policies after an initial unrest caused by his team’s adjustments to certain regulations, with the market now sure of the administration’s approach with regards to policies, thereby improving investor confidence in the US dollar. This has helped to shift the market’s focus from the Fed’s future moves and Trump’s future implementations as well, and this has further helped to support the USD especially now that the Federal Reserve is keen on sticking to its statement that there will be a total of three interest rate hikes for this year.
The US will be releasing its PPI data today, and Fed chair Yellen will be making statements with regards to the central bank’s monetary policies during today’s speech in the New York session. The market will be monitoring Yellen’s speech later today and if Yellen becomes consistently bullish in her remarks, then the euro could be in for more price drops.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 14, 2017
The GBP/USD pair exhibited a tight trading activity during yesterday’s session as the USD’s value surge was felt across the market. However, this activity somewhat failed to make a dent in the value of the sterling pound. A lot of analysts have been saying during the past few days that the GBP is practically the only currency which has resisted the negative effects of the dollar strength in spite of the fact that it continues to be weak as a result of the Brexit process. This is because UK government officials have been working very hard to make the Brexit process clear for everyone, and any kind of certainty is very much welcomed by market traders and investors.
Another reason for the GBP/USD’s resistance against the strength of the dollar is the continuously positive string of economic data coming from UK which is an indicator that the country’s economy has not yet been affected by the repercussions of the Brexit process. This could also mean that both the UK economy and the sterling pound might even become better and stronger in the long term even when it finally relieves itself from the European Union. These speculations was able to maintain the GBP/USD pair’s position at 500 pips, with more ranging and consolidation expected to continue in the near future in spite of the dollar strength.
UK will be releasing its CPI data today and this will be closely monitored by the market whether this will come out as positive and affirm the country’s strong economic status. US will also be releasing its PPI data today and Yellen will be making a statement with regards to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, including economic status and interest rate hikes.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 20, 2017
The technical pictures the GBPUSD to hover around the trading range of the previous week. The cable came across with a wave of selling pressure after the failure of the spot in reacquiring the psychological mark 1.2500.
The British currency weakened to 1.2500 amid Asian hours and touched 1.2400 level overnight. The level prevents its losses which rejected the price higher. The pair pushed the 50-EMA lower, tested the 200-EMA and rebounded the 100-day moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart.
Furthermore, the 200-EMA seems bullish-neutral while the 50 and 100-EMA are neutralized. Resistance settled at 1.2500, support entered 1.2400 area.
The MACD sits in the center point. Should the histogram move near the positive zone to provide further strength for the buyers. While an entry towards the negative territory will imply sellers capacity to manage the market. RSI departed from the neutral zone and advance south.
The technicals manifested a moderate bearish signal. We projected the major will proceed towards 1.2400 and the price might decline to 1.2340 after reaching the initial target.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017
The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.
Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.
For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 22, 2017
The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very well during the past trading sessions in spite of the US dollar regaining the majority of its losses. The GBP/USD pair remains to be one of the most resilient currency pairs, with the pair even bouncing back significantly as the dollar exhibited weakness and managing to hold on its own once the USD strengthened.
However, it is important to note that in spite of its relative strength, the GBP/USD pair is still trading within a very wide range of 400-500 pips, with the pair consistently trading within this range and not going much further. However, as the Brexit process starts to unfold and with the forthcoming invocation of Article 50, the pair might be in for some added volatility in the coming weeks. But it still remains to be seen whether the pair will be able to finally surpass its current ranges and record some significant change in trend.
UK will be releasing its second GDP estimate today which is expected to give the market an inkling of the current state of the UK economy. The GDP estimate would most likely come out as somewhat positive since the economic state of the country has been well during the past periods. The FOMC minutes will also be released later today, and this is expected to be an indicator of the GBP/USD pair’s short-term trend. If the market expectations with regards to the FOMC minutes is met, then the currency pair could possibly revert back to 1.2400 points.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 27, 2017
The British currency preserved a bid tone close to its recent highs. The sterling gained strength following the favorable results for the BBA Mortgage Approvals along with the USD retracement.
The GBPUSD lacks momentum and failed to touch resistance region 1.2600. The bulls stalled near the 1.2565 level due to failure in driving the spot upwards. The pair is confined in a tight range around 50 pips amid the European trades. A bout of renewed selling interest developed amid EU morning trades.
The Cable weakened versus the greenbacks moving near 1.2500 area. The GBP/USD bounced back from the 200-EMA and surpassed the 50 and 100-EMA higher viewed in the 4-hour chart. The GBP resumed its development over the moving averages. The 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while the 100-EMA preserved a bearish pattern indicated in the same chart. Resistance is set at 1.2600, support pierced the 1.2500 mark.
The MACD indicator increased which confirmed strength for the buyers. RSI weakened and descended.
Bullish sentiment would likely prevail. A trend on top of 1.2550 would restore the bullish tone through 1.2600 – 1.2650.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017
The market saw a very dismal durable goods data reading while Trump continues to further delay his long-awaited tax cut policies, thereby contributing to the further dwindling of the value of the US dollar. As a reaction to this particular phenomenon, the EUR/USD pair was able to reach 1.0630 points in a matter of a few hours and seems poised to move further.
However, the US dollar suddenly reverted its losses for no apparent reason at all and this caused the EUR/USD to drop further to 1.0600 before settling at just over 1.0580 points. Some market analysts are crediting this sudden surge in the dollar’s value to Trump’s previous statements regarding the infrastructure increases, a favorite campaign topic of Trump during his candidacy. Previously, there have been rumors swirling around that this infrastructure policies would not come into effect until 2018, but since Trump has already re-discussed this particular proposal, the market has since then been speculating that the increase might be implemented within the year which could help in keeping the buoyancy of the market. The USD has been able to revert its losses as a result but the real determinant here would be the rate statement next month as well as the FOMC rates.
Now that the market is slowly shifting its focus from Trump’s policies towards the move of the Federal Reserve, it is highly likely that the market’s movements will be relying on the Fed’s decision on when they will be implementing the next rate hike.
There are no major releases coming from the eurozone today but the US will be releasing its consumer spending data as well as its Preliminary GDP data today which could bring in added volatility to the USD and affect the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair is expected to continue consolidating with bullish undertones for today.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 28, 2017
The GBP/USD took a heavy hitting during the previous session as the pair’s bulls were unable to create a continuously good run for the pair since every time a bounce in the pair manifests, the pair immediately drops as it is met with major selloffs. There are still overshadowing concerns with the currency pair since the Brexit process is still ongoing, and this ensures that the GBP/USD pair will be unable to go higher for quite some time.
The GBP/USD pair was hit even more harder yesterday after rumors that Scotland is currently planning to implement another referendum in their favor in order to discern whether it would still be beneficial for them to continue becoming part of the UK. If this happens, then this would be disastrous for the UK economy since other parts of the UK might also be encouraged to do the same. This is probably the worst that could happen to the UK, especially since Scotland had initially voted to remain part of the European Union but was outvoted by the majority of UK members. But then further confirmation of this particular rumor never happened, and this caused the GBP/USD pair to bounce back from 1.2400 and is currently trading at just under 1.2450 points.
There are no major news releases expected from the UK today but the US will be releasing its Preliminary GDP data and consumer confidence data. The currency pair would most likely remain under pressure for today, with the 1.2500 barrier presenting a possibly limit to any kind of uptrend in the pair.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 6, 2017
The downbeat data of UK non-manufacturing PMI coupled with the growing expectation for the rate increase in US occurred on the back of British currency’s 6-week low recovery versus the greenbacks. Moreover, the sterling resumed its period of consolidation during the Asian trades took place on Friday. The price traded range-bound lower in a tight range of 50 pips. The sellers were able to push the GBP towards 1.2200 as it became active throughout the morning EU trades.
The 4-hour chart continued its development under the moving averages while the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower. Meanwhile, the 100 and 50-EMA made a downward crossover to the 200-EMA. Resistance is seen at 1.2300, support highlighted 1.2200.
The MACD histogram weakened which indicates seller’s strength. RSI came in the oversold territory, en route south.
Technicals are expected to support a downward extension to 1.2200 level. The final break would suggest further weakness at 1.2150 region. The possible minor correction still predicted to happen if the spot appeared to be oversold. In order to ease the downward pressure, buyers may push the price through the mark 1.2300.
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