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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
The Goods Trade Balance and Total Trade Balance established an optimistic data on Friday along with the strengthening of the sterling pound. The British currency procured some ground during the earlier trading session on Friday. Buyers drove the prices towards a higher position and tested the 1.2600 level amid the European session. The upward impetus short-lived consequent to the test, following the GBP’s rollback below the level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the cable pair rebounded through the 50-EMA. Moving averages uphold its bullish bias.
Resistance lies in the 1.2600 are, the support sits at the 1.2500 region. The MACD histogram pierced through the negative range. When the MACD stayed in the negative zone, sellers will obtain more strength. The RSI is within the neutral territory.
The GBPUSD is expected to weaken upon the break below the 1.2600 level. Likewise, this could lead the prices towards 1.2500.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The Japanese yen experienced downward pressure during Monday’s session due to the OPEC production deal as well as the positive market sentiment with regards to the Fed rate hike scheduled this December. Japan had recently released its Machinery Order and turned out to be positive, but even this particular economic data’s effect paled in comparison to the aforementioned events which had a much larger impact on the safe haven currency.
The price of the USD/JPY pair reverted from 116.00 points and went back to the 115.00 trading range. As seen in the currency pair’s 4-hour chart, the price of the USD/JPY stayed just above its moving averages and continued to inch higher. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is seen to be at 116.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 115.00 points.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair increased, showing a surge in buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators were able to remain within the overvalued regions. The market is now monitoring the pair’s current position at 116.00, and if the USD/JPY manages to break through this region, then the pair could possibly hit the 117.00 trading region.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
The USD/CAD pair remained under 1.3120 points and has now clinched its tenth day in the lower rung of the trading range. The CAD dropped during the previous trading session due to a 5% increase in crude oil prices after the OPEC meeting last week, which included non-OPEC oil-producing countries, with the participants altogether agreeing to implement production cuts on oil. Participants who were not OPEC members all agreed to productions cuts amounting to a total of 600,000 bpd, with Russia contributing a total cut of 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its possible plans to further cut back on its production of oil. However, in spite of the uncertainty on whether oil producers would be able to push through with their planned production cuts, an increase in oil prices would most definitely help in augmenting US shale production and could offset the production cuts announced last week.
The Canadian trade market would be able to benefit from steady increases in crude oil prices, as the USD/CAD’s 200 EMA is presently at 1.3075 points and is in line with 1.3040 on the lower region of the trading chart. Resistance levels for the USD/CAD pair is at the 1.3175-1.3185 trading region, and the pair shows signs of becoming oversold. Market players are now expecting a retrace if the 200 EMA maintains its current levels within the week.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 13, 2016
The GBP traded on a more positive note during Tuesday’s trading session due to the release of the UK inflation data, which came out better than the initial market expectations. The GBP/USD rose in value and was able to reach 1.2723 points before settling at 1.2710 points after increasing by +0.31% or 0.0040 points.
The inflation data from the UK exhibited a 1.2% increase last November, going well above the market expectation of 1.1%. The report also showed that the main catalysts for inflation in the region were culture, recreation, and clothing. The Core CPI data came in at 1.4%, again exceeding expectations of a 1.3% data release. Due to the positive economic data from the region, analysts are now saying that UK inflation could possibly reach the initial 2% goal during the first few months of 2017. However, this improvement might not be able to have much of an impact to the Bank of England’s impending decision-making this coming Thursday with regards to its adjustments in interest rates. BoE governor Mark Carney has also previously stated that the central bank would be willing to endure inflation overshoots if this would mean an increased economic support.
Wednesday’s trading session is expected to be somewhat light and muted as the Fed meeting looms close. However, since the GBP/USD had mostly positive reactions with regards to the shadow of the expected Fed rate hike, the present inflation data from the UK should be able to underpin the currency pair.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 13, 2016
The pair EUR/USD traded lower this day with a tight range and low volume of trading. The major players are on the sidelines waiting for Fed’s final announcement.
The final CPI resulted lower than the expected 0.3% from the actual 0.1% reading. This shows the inflations date for wholesalers. The most recent German ZEW survey indicates augmentation with an expectation at 14.2 higher than the prior 13.8. It is predicted to come in at 16.5.
The market is now focus on Fed’s data with the NFIB Small Business Index forecasted at 96.7 higher than the former 94.9. The prices are anticipated to reach 0.3% compared to last month’s 0.5%. The U.S. Treasury 30-year bond should also be looked out for by traders with interest rates anticipated to be higher than the 2.90% on November 10 as it closed at 3.1748% yesterday.
Attachment 12968
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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 15, 2016
The New Zealand dollar depreciated as more investors go for safe haven assets since commodity prices dropped in spite of the tension brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week. The pair NZD/USD weakened by 17 points to 0.6698 after the greenback rebounded since the decline on Friday influencing the cross trades while the commodity prices remain low.
Currencies that are heavily influenced by commodities dropped to its lowest recorded rate for more than six years because of a drop in oil prices. Concerns in U.S. Junk bonds reemerged while majority are feeling pressured by the Fed's policy meeting this week. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve Open Committee (FROMC) will proceed with the rate hike since the close to zero policy in December 2008 as the traders rely on hints for future changes.
The New Zealand's BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of services index for November will be announce today. While, Industrial production will also be released today from both Europe and Japan, as well as Tankan manufacturing index will be publicized by Japan.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016
The trade balance in the Euro area declined in October, same scenario with the volume of exports but the import volume increased despite the decrease in the value of European currency. Moreover, the euro made a recovery on Friday. Traders broke the price and reached 1.0450 as they made some reversal on its previous losses. Meanwhile, buyers were unable to regain the level which caused an ascending motion of impetus to fade thereupon the price move towards a lower area. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. The entire moving averages headed lower. Resistance touch the 1.0450 range, support lies at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram strengthened which means the positions for the sellers softened. RSI is in the oversold territory which indicates for another downward trend. According to speculations, the market will remain in the pressured area in case that EUR/USD fail to push the price higher, in return, the pair is expected to establish a weak point. The next target of the sellers is 1.0350 and 1.0400.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016
The decision of the BoE to remain a constant rates did not surprise the market at all, seeing the rates to exist at 0.25%. The British currency was able to gain strength in spite of the reverse movement of its American counterpart subsequent to rally that took place on Friday.
Moreover, the sterling had a stronger stance as it bounced off its losses during the trades on Friday. The current rebound are considered as bear’s activity in selling its stock in order to gain despite of the sharp rise last week. Recovery seems weak and even there is a dollar retracement, the greens established a solid position generally.
The 4-hour chart showed that the price tested the 200-EMA, while the 50-EMA headed towards a lower level, both 100 and 200- day moving averages sustained a bullish pattern. Resistance is seen at the 1.2500 region, support is at the 1.2400 level. The MACD histogram increased which means a weak position for the sellers. RSI stayed in the oversold levels.
It is best to go short within the 1.2400 handle as its first target. In case that a price consolidation arise below the first target, it is expected that the GBP/USD will moved in the 1.2300 mark. However, a break on top of the 1.25 handle would weaken the U.S dollar. The pound have the tendency to expand its recovery through 1.2550.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
Along with the positive report from the German Business climate is the strengthening of the single European currency. But the upbeat of euro was impeded by a fresh selling interest.
Meanwhile, the market appeared to be calm within this week as the greenbacks slowed down towards its major rivals amid the Asian session. The EUR edged over the dollar and further recovered during the trades on Monday while the dollar continued to soften. Buyers pushed the price through 1.0475 level by which the seller’s resistance is found. The renewed selling pressure caused the pair to slid down the 1.0450 region in the post-EU open. Moreover, the pair approached the 1.0400 mark throughout the North American Trading session. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA towards a lower point. The entire moving averages manage a descending trend. Current resistance touched the 1.0450 level, support settled within the 1.0400 area.
The MACD histogram declined as it indicated stronger stance for the sellers. RSI holds the oversold territory and signaled a downward movement.
Should the pair remained under the level of 1.0450 in order for the market to continue its moving to enter the 1.0350 and 1.0400 regions.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its previous monetary policies and give more positive economic expectations, thereby cementing speculations that the central bank could possibly induce an interest rate increase instead of a rate cutback. Because of the lack of policy adjustments, USD/JPY traders will now be shifting their focus on BoJ’s Kuroda’s statement regarding the increase in Japanese yields. There are speculations that Kuroda could either talk about economic expectations for 2017 or the risks involved with a sudden surge in bond yields. However, it is more definite that Kuroda will be treading carefully with regards to increasing market expectations of an interest rate hike.
The Bank of Japan could possibly sustain its present pledge-to-guide short term rates at -0.1% and 10-year Japanese Government bond yields at around 0% in spite of a somewhat positive sentiment for the Japanese economy. However, traders are advised to be careful with regards to holding Japanese bond yields at 0%, since long-term interest rates have now increased due to speculations of a steadier US rate hikes and an inflation surge under the Trump administration. The Bank of Japan is now under pressure due to calls for the central bank to add
up its 10-year yields target.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
The GBP/USD pair exhibited consolidation and range trading during the past trading session, with the currency pair now trading over 1.2400 points with more consolidation plus a bearish bias for today’s sessions. The currency pair initially exhibited positive movement during the earlier sessions but dropped in value as yesterday’s trading sessions progressed. There were economic releases from the UK during yesterday’s session, but the Scottish Prime Minister has released a statement which inadvertently threatens the UK’s Brexit process after Scotland decided to remain in the European Union, whereas the whole of UK has already decided to relieve themselves from the eurozone. This has already increased the risk of the already very muddled Brexit process since Parliament members are now in the middle of debating the validity of Article 50 which is a vital part of the said process.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic releases expected from the UK but the recent strength of the USD could dominate the whole market, and the continuing confusion with regards to the Brexit process could increase the downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair for the coming weeks. Any bounce found in the currency pair should be immediately seen as a short opportunity for this particular currency pair.
Attachment 12978
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2016
The GBP/USD pair is now struggling to cope with the effects of the markedly low liquidity during this holiday season, much like other currency pairs. However, the GBP/USD managed to fare relatively better in terms of market volatility as compared to other currencies since it had a 100-pip range for the previous trading sessions. In spite of the USD’s current strength becoming the dominant feature of the financial market, the lack of market volatility has managed to offset the USD’s strength and has become advantageous to other currencies such as the sterling pound. The USD is expected to regain market control eventually, but until that happens, then the GBP could still range and consolidate at the lower region of 1.2500 points.
As the Brexit process resumes, the GBP/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias for the short term and medium term, especially since Scotland is apparently disagreeing with UK’s plans to leave the European Union and the UK will have to exert more effort in order to negotiate with all involved parties and make way for an easier Brexit process. Theresa May will also be needing additional support as the Brexit process begins, which is expected to become a long and arduous process.
For today’s session, there are no major news releases from Britain, and with the holiday season fast approaching, liquidity is expected to drop further which could lead to more ranging and consolidation on most currency pairs.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2016
The EUR/USD pair experienced consolidation and ranging during Tuesday’s trading session, with the currency pair becoming limited to a 60-pip range in spite of the dollar’s increasing strength. This particular range for the EUR/USD is expected to become more limited and tighter as the holiday season approaches, mostly due to lowered liquidity during this period, with market players most likely taking advantage of this period to drive certain currency pairs in directions more favorable for their trades. Traders are advised against trading during this time, but if they do so, stop losses should be tight enough to avoid possible mishaps in the short term.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic events scheduled to be released from either the US or the European Union, and the EUR/USD is expected to exhibit more ranging, albeit with a more pronounced bearish bias. If the pair would be able to reach the 1.0460 region, then this could be seen as an opportunity to trade in the short-term with a more secure stop loss. The recent strength of the value of the US dollar is expected to dominate the overall direction of the market both in the short run and the long run.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The JPY experienced a drop in value following the latest economic news release from Japan, where the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current monetary policies until such time that inflation rates go beyond 2%. The Japanese economy is also reportedly continuing its recent recovery. The USD/JPY pair rallied during Tuesday’s trading session following this move from the BoJ, and buyers were able to take control of the pair and sent the USD/JPY soaring well beyond its daily highs. The USD went up from 117.00 to 118.00 in the London trading session, and was able to test the 118.00 region prior to the opening of the North American session. The value of the USD/JPY reverted from the 100 EMA in the pair’s hourly chart. Meanwhile, the USD went beyond the 50 EMA while on its way towards the upper region of the chart and veered away from its moving averages. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 118.00 points, while support levels are expected to be at 117.00 points.
The MACD levels for the currency pair stayed within its previous level, indicating the increase in buyer strength. The RSI indicators for the currency pair went upwards as well. If buyers are able to maintain its control over the USD/JPY pair, then the price of the value could possibly move up further to 119.00 points.
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
The remarks of Yellen about the strengthening of the U.S job market plus the 2017 plan for Fed tightening subsidize the greenbacks, however, weighed heavily on higher-yielding New Zealand dollar. The NZD continued to be bearish and slid down through 0.6900 during the mid-Europe session held yesterday.
Upon successfully breaking the level, sellers had expanded its gain through the 0.6850 region. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the price traded under the moving averages as the 50-EMA pass over the 100 and 200-EMAs in a lower point. Moreover, the entire moving averages sustained its bearish pattern. Current resistance touched the 0.6900 area, support settled around the 0.6850 level.
MACD grew less which confirmed stronger stance for the sellers. The RSI approached the oversold zone in which supports a renewed downward movement. The NZD/USD will reach the 0.6850 after it broke the 0.6900 region. Should the price advance towards the 0.6800 upon beating its initial target.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 23, 2016
The consecutive events regarding the economic growth of US together with the fiscal policy issued by Trump and hawkish outlook of the Fed for 2017 set the minds of the investors to avert from higher-yielding currencies including the Aussie dollar.
The market carried a bearish sentiment on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair further decline after the 2-day narrow consolidation. The sellers pushed the AUD towards 0.7200 from the previous 0.7250 region in the EU hours. Moreover, sellers failed to surpass the 0.7200 mark which caused them to take a pause. After the price touched the aforesaid levels, it made a roll back.
As shown in the 1-hour chart, the Australian dollar bounce back through the 50-EMA and resumed a downward trend. The moving averages maintained a bearish pattern as indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance is at 0.7250, the support holds the 0.7200 handle.
MACD grew less which means further strengthening for the sellers. RSI still was seen in the oversold territory and supported another downtrend.
Technical indicators exhibit a bearish tone. It is highly expected for a downward movement within the 0.7100 and 0.7150 levels.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: December 28, 2016
The stock market of Canada is close due to U.K’s official holiday, Boxing Day. While the release of GDP and CPI last week has changed the supposition of the Canadian regulator for the easing of its monetary policy in the near future. The pair remains in the hands of the buyers within its 6-week high. The greenbacks regain some of its losses because traders pushed the price towards the 1.3540 from the previous 1.3500 level.
The short-lived upward momentum further weakened in the predetermined level where the buyers came across the resistance of the sellers.
According to the 4-hour chart, the USDCAD hovered on top of the moving averages. The 50-EMA cross over the 200 and 100 EMA in an upward direction. While the 100 and 200-day moving averages are neutral and the 50-EMA headed up. Resistance highlighted the 1.3540 region, support sits in the 1.3470.
The MACD histogram grew less which confirmed weak position for the buyers. RSI remained overvalued.
If the 1.3540 region were unable to break, it would cause for a downward correction when the pair plunge below the 1.3470 support level. The next potential target of the sellers is 1.3400. The pair is able to expand its gains towards 1.3589 if the buyers break higher.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The GBP/USD pair traded within a tight range of 50 pips during yesterday’s trading session, and is expected to continue this particular trend along with ranging and consolidation for today’s session unless interrupted by a currency flow just before the month ends. The UK market was characterized by a remarkably low level of liquidity yesterday due to a UK holiday. However, some market players are banking on an increase in volatility just before this month draws to a close, as well as currency flows which could possibly occur towards the end of the week. However, the recent market trends are not expected to become completely altered even if the month-end currency flows appear and induce market volatility. This is because the recent dollar weakness is expected to continue up until the end of this week, and since the USD is expected to bounce back immediately after the holiday season, the recent trends might still be sustained even after the holidays.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases expected from UK, and this means that the GBP/USD would most likely engage in more ranging and consolidation up until the end of today’s series of sessions.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The EUR/USD is still experiencing a tight-lipped trading range after trading within 30 pips. The market liquidity is not expected to increase until next year since there are no signs of currency flows as of late. However, the new year is expected to bring back market liquidity since this signals the end of the holiday season. The EUR/USD had high trading ranges during the North American session yesterday, where it attempted to go beyond 1.0470 points in order to reach 1.0530 points. Meanwhile, the USD exhibited a marked weakness during these past few sessions, particularly against the EUR. This trend is expected to remain for the rest of the week as the market attempts to remove some of the bearishness of other currencies against the USD. The USD’s strength is expected to bounce back next week, and it is therefore vital that the euro bulls would be able to take hold of this opportunity and accomplish all moves in order to avoid the adverse effects of the USD regaining its strength.
There are no major economic data releases expected from the international community for today’s sessions, and this means that added consolidation and ranging could possibly be felt as there are no currency flows which could be a catalyst for added market volatility. As such, traders are advised to tread lightly and remain within the sidelines for this particular period.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2016
The USD/CAD pair is still trading with a bullish stance after spending almost the whole of the previous session trading above 1.3500 points, and this trend is expected to continue for today’s session. The USD traded on a somewhat much weaker tone in relation to other currencies, but in the loonie’s case the weakness of the US dollar seemed to have little if not completely no effect on this particular currency, with the CAD easily trading over 1.3500 points and could possibly become more positive when the USD regains some of its recent losses next week. Market speculators have long since been saying that the CAD might soon be subject to a very strong uptrend, and traders should be loading up on longs in order to make way for bigger future gains.
The USD/CAD pair seems to be already unaffected by the movement of oil prices unlike a few weeks back, wherein the CAD had significant reactions to the wild careening of oil prices. Now, in spite of the recent increase in oil prices, the CAD continues to trade strongly. However, the next few weeks are expected to hit an adverse effect on the Canadian economy since the recent economic data from the region has done little to appease investor sentiment, and oil prices are expected to continue increasing, and Trump will be assuming office in January. The somewhat weakening of the CAD is evidence of this foreboding string of events next year.
Today’s trading session will most likely be characterized by more consolidation and ranging with a bullish undertone since there are no major news releases from the Canadian economy.
Attachment 13008
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The EUR/USD pair became somewhat active during the previous trading session after a lackluster performance during the past few days, and this is especially good news for traders who are waiting for any sign of market activity since the holiday season has caused the market liquidity to diminish. The currency pair was able to go beyond its daily price range of 30-40 pips, and the USD’s recent price surge has caused the EUR/USD pair to plummet below 1.0400 points and even reached 1.0360 points. However, the negative pending home sales data from the US has caused the currency pair to go back above 1.0400 points.
As the new year starts and the holiday season comes to an end, the market’s volatility and liquidity is expected to return, and liquidity levels could possibly go higher. However, the strength of the US dollar is not expected to be stalled anytime soon, and government leaders from both the UK and the European Union are now preparing for the onslaught of the Brexit process next year, which is expected to be very tedious for both regions. On the other hand, Germany will also be holding its elections next year, and the market will be closely monitoring Merkel’s performance before and during the elections. However, until such time that these things happen, market players should first monitor just how long will the USD be able to maintain its recent strong stance. For the EUR/USD pair, the currency pair is expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone as the market adjusts to the very disappointing pending home sales data from the US.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD was able to regain some of its lost strength during the earlier parts of yesterday’s trading session, which was felt all throughout the market, and has also affected the sentiment of the sterling pound. The GBP then plummeted and the GBP/USD pair went way below 1.2200 points after almost two months as a result of a very disappointing home sales data. However, as the North American session commenced, the GBP/USD pair was able to surface over 1.2200 points and has hovered over this level for the rest of the trading session. But it still remains to be seen whether the currency pair would be able to deflect the effects of the USD’s ever-growing strength.
The effects of the long and winding Brexit process is expected to be seen during the next several months since various government leaders from the UK and the EU is set to debate on how to go through with the process in general. These are expected to create a constant pressure for the sterling pound, and all reversions on the part of the GBP/USD could immediately be sold by bears, therefore making it hard for this currency pair to make any significant advancements in the coming months.
For today’s trading session, since there are no major economic data which is set to be released from the UK region, the GBP/USD pair is more likely to encounter more consolidation with a bullish undertone, especially since the market is currently experiencing low volatility and liquidity due to the holiday season.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 29, 2016
The USD/CAD pair continued to trade in an upward direction due to substantial support coming from the USD, which was basically the market’s theme during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair was able to maintain its buoyancy in spite of the recent surge in oil prices. Market speculators are now stating that oil prices could be well on its way towards reaching its optimum price and once oil prices stop going in an upward direction, then this could put more pressure on the Canadian dollar, thereby inducing a strong uptrend on the USD/CAD pair.
The USD experienced a short correction during yesterday’s session after the US home sales data came in at a disappointing reading of -2.5% which fell short of initial market expectations of 0.5%. Luckily, the market is now shifting its focus on the Fed’s rate hikes this 2017, particularly the pricing of these rate hikes. The strength of the USD is very evident as of late, since the lack of trading and relatively low market liquidity was unable to mask the dollar’s strong stance, as well as the CAD’s pointed weakness.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic data scheduled to be released from Canada, while the US is expected to release its weekly oil inventory data. Since the market is relatively thin due to the holiday season, expect an added consolidation for the USD/CAD with a bullish undertone.
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 3, 2017
The trading session of the pair NZD/USD has high volatility on Friday as traders settle their positions in closing for the year end. A slightly supportive candle is seen to form with a strong resistance at 0.70 level while it is supportive on prior trading session. The exhaustive candle pattern encouraged sellers to be active, trying to move the price towards the 0.68 level. The U.S. dollar remains strong while the New Zealand dollar is expected to be lower as greenback dominates the trend.
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: January 3, 2017
The pair EUR/GBP declined last Friday and has been carried on for quite some time. There’s quite a resistance above the psychological level on the direction towards the 0.87 level that signals an opportunity for selling. The market is trying to move the levels further downward on the way to the next target at 0.83 handle, With the strong resistance for this pair, one way to trade this pair is to sell it moving along the surge on its short-term charts that continues to go downward.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: January 3, 2017
The EUR/JPY had an initial rally on Friday, however, shifted to another direction and formed an exhaustive candle logically. The pair was unable to break out through the upside and continued to consolidate on its current place. Meanwhile support level hovered in a lower position in order to maintain the market out of debt and any other difficulty. The price floor of the market settled near the 120 region. The next potential target is 125 mark, favoring a higher level against longer-term trends. Selling interest seems little no importance as of this writing.
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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: January 3, 2017
The British pound paired with the Japanese Yen rallied last Friday as it moved ahead of the hammer pattern on Thursday. This event caused many buyers to return to the market as it moved near the 145 level. A break above the aforesaid level will drove towards the 150 region.
The GBP/JPY continued to have a significant dip by which the market in return would increase buying opportunities. On the other hand, the price floor of the pair is below the 140 handle.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 3, 2017
The pair GBP/USD has been moving softly and remains resilient despite the appreciation of U.S. dollar since yesterday. This was brought by closing of London market same with the New York market that causing the low liquidity and weak volatility of the pair. Since today is the opening again, it is expected for the pair to gain volatility and waiting for hints on what will happen to the short term trend.
The U.S. dollar surged in the early weeks of December since the announcement of the Fed rate hike but a few correction were seen as the days advanced near the holidays. This pushed the pair to go lower towards the 1.2400 level predominant in thin market but it is expected that this will only occur for a short period of time. Since it is after holidays, then there will be high liquidity that guarantees the next moves compared to how it was 2 weeks ago.
The Manufacturing PMI data from U.K. will be announced today that starts this week rich in data while the market awaits if the trend will continued to be supported by U.K. keep posting positive results in the midst of Brexit preparation. However, the surge of dollar may continue for some time while pound weakens. Hence, any form of rebound for the pair signals an opportunity for short-term position.
Attachment 13021
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/CAD was one of the few currency pairs which benefited from the dollar index surge, as well as the recent drop in crude oil prices during yesterday’s trading session, which was the result of the carrying out of the recent agreements between oil production firms. The USD/CAD pair continued to exhibit a somewhat circumspect trading in spite of the dollar strength and has also limited itself to a tight trading range yesterday. The USD/CAD pair made a short-term drop at just below 1.3400 points but eventually reverted back to due an onslaught in demand and is now currently hovering at just below the 1.3450 trading range. The currency pair is expected to increase its strength as the day progresses, especially since majority of traders are now finishing off the holiday season and are now coming back to their trading desks. Even if the increase in the dollar index is not expected to drop anytime soon, its effect on the currency pair is expected to be somewhat subdued since the effect of the dollar surge could be offset by the recent increase in oil prices.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from both Canada and US, and if the USD’s strength continues to go across the board, then the USD/CAD could possibly re-test the 1.3500 levels soon.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 4, 2017
As the market’s overall volatility and liquidity returned yesterday following the holiday season, the USD once again exhibited its strength across the board. The strength of the currency was further augmented by the strong economic data which was released from the US. The US Manufacturing PMI data came in yesterday and showed a positive reading of 54.7, which just evident of the US economy’s recently positive economic data. If the nation continues to clock in positive economic sentiments, then this could further cement the chances of more frequent rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year, and could also lead to faster hike pricing as well.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair plummeted through 1.0400 points and even surpassed its monthly lows last December for a short duration but eventually recovered during the opening of the European trading session and is currently hovering within the 1.0400 trading range. Market players are expecting the USD’s strength to be felt across the market for today, and if the EUR/USD could manage to break through 1.0400 points, then this could lead to the pair going lower further and possibly reaching 1.0300 points.
For today’s session, there are no major economic data coming from both the European Union and US and the market is most likely to be dominated by the onslaught of the returning of traders into the market, and any reversion in the EUR/USD should be seen by trades as a short-term opportunity.
Attachment 13022
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The USD/JPY pair broke its psychological level yesterday but rebounded higher than the turnaround level. A semi exhaustive candle was seen to form that could further push upwards the long-term levels with chances for pullback. The Support level was posited at 115 area with the next target at 120 level. It seems the market could reach this mark anytime soon.
The non-farm payroll data is anticipated to come out which will have a big impact to the pair that could subdue the market.
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The New Zealand currency had recovered compared to its American counterpart after the data release from China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Meanwhile, the pair established its recovery during the early trades yesterday in spite of the dollar’s strengthening across the board.
The NZD plunged through an upward trend and beat the 0.6950 level in the middle session of Asian trading. Nevertheless, the upswing that last overnight tried to hold back below the 0.6950 hurdle where the NZD/USD found a renewed selling interest. Moreover, the pair rebounded from the level amid the post-EU open and continued towards the 0.6900 support.
The 4-hour chart showed the price pushed the 50-EMA upwards in the morning trades. The pair was unable to expand its growth and further entered the 50-day moving averages before the outset of the North American session. The 200-EMA together with the 100-EMA sustained its bearish signal and the 50-EMA established a neutral stance. Resistance took the 0.6950 level, support approached the 0.6900 area. The MACD histogram traded on the downside. While the RSI oscillator lies in the neutral zone after it departed in the overvalued readings.
A bearish sentiment ruled on Tuesday. It is highly anticipated that the currency pair’s next target is 0.6900. In case the NZDUSD surpasses the initial target, the price is possible to move ahead to the 0.6850 region.
Attachment 13023
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
The manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom had supported the sterling temporarily amid trades on Tuesday. While the strength of greenbacks had curbed the major gains.
Moreover, the GBP presented a neutral-to-bearish position yesterday. The cable pair reversed its early lows during the Asian session but the pound lose its legs to move ahead the 1.2300 level where major currencies work over new offers.
The pour lowered down in the 1.2245 region, although a renewed bout of buying interest stimulate the British currency to regain its previous losses hence it continued to bounced back towards the 1.23 barrier.
As presented in the 4-hour chart, the price pushed the 50-EMA upwards. Meanwhile, majors failed to escape around the area of 50-EMA thus, it hovered within the region all throughout the trading day. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200). The resistance highlighted the 1.2300, support jump in through 1.2200 mark.
The MACD histogram is set in the centerline. In case the indicator came back to the negative zone, seller’s strength will grow. If it entered the positive territory, buyers have the power to dominate the market. The RSI kept intact in the neutral stance.
According to forecasts, the bearish sentiment will prevail. Most likely, the scenario will exhibit a further downward movement around the 1.2200 region.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive sentiment of the oil market yesterday brought favorable impact on commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar.
The U.S dollar recovered in the Asian hours and slowed down within the 1.3470 range when the commodity-linked pair move towards fresh offers as it continued to fell under the 1.3400 support during the onset of EU trades.
Sellers were able to resume their gains amid the European session and pointed to the 1.3260 region. The downward pressure weakened near the 1.3300 while the price made a reversal around the aforesaid level. The price further broke the 200 and 100-EMAs in a descending manner as shown in the 4-hour chart. The 100 and 50-EMAs maneuvered towards a higher position while the 200-EMA is trending neutral. Resistance took the 1.3400 level, support highlighted the 1.3330 mark.
MACD indicator declined which confirmed strength for the sellers. RSI kept intact around the oversold zone.
In case the price had directed below the 1.3330 region, it will open an opportunity for the sellers to continue a short-term downward trend. The next probable target of the sellers are the 1.3190 and 1.3260 marks. The USD/CAD is able to bounce off few of its losses if it moves back on top of the 1.3330.
Attachment 13024
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
The positive data from the Euro zone supported the single European currency which further strengthened versus its US peer. Based on the EU statistical data, the inflation rate of the European countries is fast growing. While the favorable Markit Services and Composite PMIs of France and Germany further reinforced the EUR.
Technically, the major pair maintained a mid-term downward channel within a lower boundary. However, the 4-hour chart showed a limited upside potential. The Fiber reversed some of its losses during the trades on Wednesday. The buyers drove the prices towards the 1.0450 level where an upward impetus gradually disappear in the middle session of the EU hours. After reaching the aforesaid level, euro return on its recent region where it stayed.
The 50-EMA is in a neutral position and have been tested by the price in the mentioned time frame accordingly, while the 200 and 100-EMAs headed downwards.
The EUR/USD hovered under the moving averages as the level of resistance touched the 1.0450 and support entered at 1.0400.
The MACD histogram increased which indicated a weak position for sellers. RSI moved in the neutral zone and departed from the oversold area.
As it was mentioned in the forecast, the EUR is expected to kept intact in the pressured area but recovered the 1.0500 barrier. Buyers are able to lead the pair towards 1.0550. A break down from the 1.0400 handle will cause weakness for the EURUSD as well. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0350.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The GBP/USD significantly increased in value during the previous trading session after the USD dropped following the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes. The market was somewhat docile during the rest of yesterday’s session but immediately picked up after the release of the minutes during the North American session yesterday, and has caused the USD to undergo corrections across the board.
However, the reaction of the GBP/USD pair to this phenomenon is somewhat docile compared to other USD-related currency pairs, and this is expected to keep the bulls on their toes. Initially, the GBP/USD pair was expected to rise exponentially since the UK construction PMI data clocked in a highly positive reading and exceeded its market expectations of 54.2, and the FOMC minutes lacked the expected hawkishness from the market. But the reason why this currency pair’s growth was significantly limited is that the various risks and uncertainties surrounding the Brexit process continues to dog a lot of traders due to the general confusion within this issue. This is why a number of speculators are saying that the GBP/USD would be receiving the shorter end of the stick once the USD regains its strength.
Although the UK is not expected to release any economic data for today, the US will be releasing a number of important economic data along with the highly essential NFP report, which is expected to determine the overall market sentiment for the rest of the month. If these set of data comes out as positive, then the USD could possibly rebound and could be sustained until the end of January.
Attachment 13025
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD/CAD pair exhibited a significantly large correction during yesterday’s trading session after the USD lost some of its value due to the absence of a hawkish undertone on the minutes of the FOMC meeting which was released yesterday. The USD/CAD only weakened further since it had already failed to reach the higher trading regions. The USD/CAD pair is now sitting just over the 1.3300 trading region.
Since oil prices have been generally positive during the past few days, the market expects that its effect would be felt in the current value of the CAD as well, and true enough, the currency pair dropped yesterday while the market went into a lull. The Canadian dollar then extended its losses after the release of the FOMC minutes, which triggered the weakening of the USD and therefore increased the downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
There are no major economic news releases from the Canadian economy for today’s session. However, the US is expecting to release a number of major data, including the Unemployment Claims data, and the ADP employment report. These data are determinant of whether the market would experience added volatility or otherwise, depending on the readings. The US will also be releasing the NFP report tomorrow, which is considered as a critical determinant of market volatility. Traders are encouraged to evaluate the effects of these news releases on the currency pair before trading in on the USD/CAD.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 5, 2017
The USD has been exhibiting corrections across the market during the start of today’s trading session, causing the EUR/USD pair to break through 1.0500 before eventually settling at 1.0525 points, with the outlook for the currency pair looking generally positive for today’s session. The market is expected to go through a lot of market volatility during the next few days since there are a number of major economic news releases set to be released in the coming days. However, it is still unclear whether the USD would be able to sustain its corrections in the next few days.
Since there were no economic data released during the first few hours of the previous trading session, the market has shifted its focus on the minutes of the FOMC meeting. Once the minutes were released, however, the USD sustained damages since the minutes did not have any clear hawkish stances. This has caused the EUR/USD to hit 1.0500 and then went even lower as the USD quickly recovered. The currency pair has since then been regaining its footing after the USD lost some of its strength.
For today’s trading session, the major economic news releases include the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data, a precursor to the NFP data which is set to be released during tomorrow’s trading session. The Unemployment Claims data as well as the Non-Manufacturing PMI data will be closely monitored by the majority of market players, since these are expected to continue the generally positive economic trend seen in the US lately. A positive reading from this particular set of data could also become determinants of whether the next interest rate hike from Fed would come earlier, therefore increasing the frequency of hikes. However, if the data comes out as negative, then the USD could be subject to more corrections prior to the release of the NFP economic data.
Attachment 13028
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 9, 2016
The kiwi expand its recovery against its U.S peer during the middle session of Asia. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD is unable to move further the 0.7050 level and bounce back after it touched the aforesaid level.
During the EU session, the pair remained in a tight range that lies in the middle of 0.7000 and 0.7030. Another session of selling interest drove the New Zealand dollar downwards prior to the opening of the NY trades.
The price had a steep decline towards the 0.7000 range and extended its losses. According in the 4-hour chart, the price pushed the 50 and 100-EMAs higher and the 200-EMA was tested. It continued to struggle together with the neutral 200-EMA in the course of the EU hours. Moreover, the 50-EMA ascended, at the same time the 100-EMA moved southwards. Resistance touched the 0.7050, support is seen at 0.7000.
The indicators en route north around the bullish zone. The MACD histogram increased, favoring buyer’s strength. The RSI lies in overvalued territory.
The technical represents a bullish momentum. A The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A rapid price decline on top of the 0.7050 impedes the increase within the 0.7100 resistance level.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 9, 2017
There is no major economic news anticipated in the United Kingdom last Friday. While the data from U.S affected the market as traders awaits for the figures of trade balance and labor data.
After it reached the 1.2430 level in the Asian session, the GBP/USD weakened and shifted downside. The British currency returned to the support region 1.2400 where it met a stable support during the morning trades.
The cable pair extremely toggles in a narrow range amid EU session waiting for a renewed stimulus. Furthermore, a selling interest arises before the onset of the NY trades as it pushed the pair downwards.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price drove the 50 and 100-EMAs higher. The pair remained in the middle of the neutralize 200-EMA and bearish 100-EMA in the earlier trading. Resistance entered the 1.2400, support touched the 1.2300 region.
The technicals had a moderate reversal from the overbought zone. The MACD indicator traded in the downside. The RSI stayed around the overvalued readings.
In case the GBPUSD breakout within the 1.2400 resistance level upon the establishing of buy orders, the price recovery may extend through the marks 1.2450 and 1.2500. However, a negative signal and further risk easing would emerge when a movement push through the 1.23 level. Furthermore, sellers were able to send the pair towards 1.2200.
Attachment 13046