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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017
The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.
However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.
There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017
The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.
Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.
The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.
Attachment 13380
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017
The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.
The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.
For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017
The Canadian dollar was able to preserve its stance compared with the US dollar yesterday. The loonie received some support from the positive figures of Trade Balance a few days ago. Investors wait with expectation for the statistics of US labor market which could establish a route for the USD/CAD.
The pair was trading flat and toggled in the middle of the Wednesday night session. The price is positioned in tight channels of 1.3400 - 1.3430 all throughout the night.
Moreover, the USD resumed its short-term bullish trajectory during the earlier trades. The major further pulled out from the 1.3400 region and rallied higher heading to 1.3470.
As rolled out from the 4-hour chart, the price was developing beyond the moving averages. It further mentioned the 100 and 50-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern while 200-EMA move over the neutral grounds. Resistance touched 1.3470 mark, support hit 1.3400.
The MACD histogram is positioned within the same level confirming buyer’s strength. RSI oscillator hovered near the overbought readings and expected to support a fresh upward movement
The bullish market structure is expected to remain in its place in the short-term. Bulls’ next target is at 1.3470.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017
The House of Lords decided to allow the Parliament to exercise a veto with regards to the management of the Prime Minister towards the European Union. This resolution made some impact to the British currency. Moreover, Theresa May has to face another difficulty with the Brexit negations.
The sterling remained flat during the Asian hours. The sellers spend the whole night accumulating strength for another support and pushed the price lower in the morning.
The spot was removed from the region 1.2200 and progress lower prior to the opening of London session. The Cable was able to hold 1.2150 amid noon trades. As mentioned in 4-hour chart, the price resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs headed downwards. Resistance is seen at 1.220, support highlighted 1.2100.
The MACD indicator decline as the sellers gained strength. RSI belong in the undervalued zone and expected to favor for a new lower trend.
Based on the current flow, a scenario where a downward movement at 1.2100 is considered.
Attachment 13386
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2017
The trend of EURUSD made little changes prior to the onset of ECB monetary policy meeting. The German Industrial Production came in green which provided minor support for the European currency.
The bears continued to dominate the market on Wednesday. During the whole night of trading, the sellers persist in pushing the major lower and touching 1.0550 level in the earlier trades. While European traders struggled to break the mentioned handle.
The 4-hour chart showed the pair cut through the 50-EMA towards a lower point. The timeframe also outlined the price was situated under the moving averages and directed downwards.
Resistances landed at 1.0600, support is at 1.0500.
The MACD histogram has its seat in the centerline. An entry towards the negative zone will signal increasing strength for the sellers. The positive territory, on the other side, will indicate buyer’s control within the market. RSI hovered around the neutral territory.
Any action under the 1.0550 region would trigger bearishness to 1.0500 mark.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 10, 2017
The USD/CAD pair continued its ranging and consolidation manner without any visible signs of weakness in the pair. The USD had previously weakened slightly against its other peers but has managed to maintain its current stance against the Canadian dollar which is good news for the bulls. Oil prices have been relatively stable during the past trading day, which means that the Canadian dollar has also remained stable and has resulted into a sort of deadlock for the USD/CAD pair.
However, it is important to note that the USD/CAD pair has recently been in a tight trading barrier near 1.3500 points during the past two sessions, the same region which the currency pair has consistently failed to break through during the previous couple of months. The bulls have become very wary of this barrier since this has caused them to drop down by over 500 pips and the majority of the bulls would not want to be caught within this barrier again. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair is expecting for a very strong NFP report, as well as a higher USD value as a reaction to the said report. In addition, the March rate hike is also pretty much in the bag and the ADP employment report is also expected to come in as highly positive.
Aside from the NFP report set to be released today, the market will also be anticipating the release of the Canadian employment data. The bulls are advised to remain at the sidelines of this pricing barrier until such time that the activity clears and becomes safe enough
Attachment 13387
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 13, 2017
The single European currency was able to remain in the driver’s seat following the hawkish remarks from ECB President, Mario Draghi. Moreover, the broad-based retracement of the greens open doors for the euro to recover few of its losses.
The current rebound from region 1.0525 that pulled away the euro from the red. The EUR have sustained its winning position on Friday. The buyers were able to push 1.0600 during EU opening and advanced towards 1.0615 during the latter part of the day.
The 4-hour chart presented the 100 and 50-EMA to ascend and come nearer to the 200-EMA. Moreover, the 50-EMA shifted towards the upper level, 100-EMA appeared neutral and the 200-EMA preserved a bearish trend. Resistance touched 1.0650, support is at 1.0600.
The MACD histogram came in the positive territory. Upon maintaining this grounds, buyers will gain more strength. RSI headed north indicating an upward impetus.
The euro indicated an overbought condition. Forecasts say that pullback is expected within the market in the near-term. The next focus is at 1.0550 mark.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017
The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.
The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.
If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017
Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.
In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.
For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.
Attachment 13394
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 17, 2017
The market mainly focused on the meeting of the Bank of England about its monetary policy decision. Investors anticipate that regulator will keep an unchanged rate and does not assume any other surprising events.
The market became bearish yesterday. Investors believe that the sterling should be lifted on top of 1.2300. The major stayed near the barrier and moved downwards during the first part of the day. The Cable preserved an ask tone throughout the day.
According to the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD broke the 50-EMA and tested 100-EMA afterwards. At the same, the 100 and 200-EMAs drove lower while the 50-EMA came in neutral.
Resistance is found at 1.2300 level, support is at 1.2200.
The histogram made its entry to the positive territory. Upon maintaining this position the buyer’s strength will increase. The RSI consolidated alongside the overbought readings.
Moving downwards near the 1.2200 level would the be the next possible scenario.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017
There is no expected economic release scheduled from the Australian dollar on Friday. Investors were in a wait-and-see mode for the RBA Meeting minutes scheduled on Tuesday. Moreover, the offered tone near the greenbacks provided strength for the Aussie.
Buyers found a hurdle around 0.7700 but needed to leave off their gains.The major rebounded and stalled on top of 0.7660.
A bout of renewed buying pressure came up during Friday’s Asian session. The AUD/USD were pulled back by the buyers towards 0.7700 removing its current losses.
The 4-hour chart determines the price continuously develop above the moving averages as the 200 and 50-EMA directed higher while 100-EMA seems neutral. Resistance entered 0.7700 level, support holds 0.7650 mark.
The histogram preserved in the same region favoring buyer’s strength. RSI indicator is situated close to the overvalued area which confirms another move lower.
After making a gap on top of 0.7700, the next will be 0.7750. Failure to post its fresh gains could possibly occur some profit taking. The AUD would likely weaken reaching 0.7600-0.7620.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017
The upside bias continued to exist until Friday. Buyers stalled its activity during the night. Moreover, the night correction was considered as a profit-taking action of buyers who failure to hold its place.
Bulls became active in the morning trades pushing the major near 1.2400 region and slowed down further. In line with the presentation of the 4-hour chart, the price cross above the 100-EMA and confined under the 200-EMA. Meanwhile, the 200 and 100-EMAs remained to be in a bearish pattern, 50-EMA directed up as mentioned in the chart. Resistance highlighted 1.2400, support entered 1.2300.
MACD indicator strengthened confirming for a buy signal. The RSI consolidated around the positive area.
Should the GBP/USD pair accomplish to breakout from the 1.2400 mark, the next focus is 1.2500 resistance region. However, there is an outside chance for a move on top of 1.2400 due to an overbought condition. Due to this probable scenario, the Cable is expected to reverse at 1.2300.
Attachment 13413
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 20, 2017
The Eurozone Trade Balance, particularly in Italy, presented negative results. While the greenbacks sentiment remained to be a major driver of the markets. The US dollar kept its stance near its lows on the back of slightly hawkish remarks of J. Yellen.
The common European currency spiked amid the post session of New York last Thursday. The buyers lead the price higher and broke the level 1.0750. On one side, bulls successfully edged higher towards 1.0770 in the latter part of the day and decided to stop.
The spot kept intact in a narrow range over the 1.0750 region. The neutral position was preserved amid morning session.
The 4-hour chart presented the price to develop beyond the moving averages, as the 50-EMA showed an upward crossover to the 200-EMA. The 50 and 100-EMAs advanced upwards while 200-EMA is found neutral. Resistance is at 1.0800, support lies at 1.0750.
The MACD histogram increased which suggested a buy signal. RSI have seen consolidated within the positive zone.
It is expected that the outlook, in general, will remain to be bullish due to ascending trend en route 1.0800. Nevertheless, there still a possibility of reversal towards 1.0720-1.0700.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2017
The USD/CAD pair merely continued its weak trading streak within a limited trading range as the currency pair awaits clues on its price action as dictated by its fundamental indicators. Previously, the USD/CAD pair had already dropped in value last week following the FOMC rate statement, which disappointed investors in general, and since then the currency pair has been unable to make any significant progress and if the pair does move forward, it will be more of a consolidation in order to recover its recent losses than any move towards a definite direction.
The USD/CAD is currently trading at just over 1.3350 points, with the market expecting the currency pair to consolidate within the 1.3300-1.3400 region. The pair is expected to return to its wider trading range and could possibly reach 1.3000 points in the near future. The USD/CAD pair, along with other major currency pairs, are expected to consolidate within a much higher range in spite of their collectively high volatility levels.
The Canadian economy has been consistently releasing a slew of positive economic data, and this is expected to be very good news for the Canadian dollar and could cause the USD/CAD pair to retreat to 1.3000 points. For today’s session, Canada will be releasing its core retail sales data, which will be closely monitored by market players as this will be an important gauge on the overall health of the Canadian economy. If the data meets market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could retreat towards 1.3300 points and could be poised for more retractions depending on the strength of the said retail sales data.
Attachment 13416
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017
The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.
However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.
There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017
The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.
The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.
However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.
Attachment 13417
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017
The price action of the USD/CAD pair during the previous session was mostly dictated by the Canadian retail sales data, which came out better than expected. However, one downside to this is that the positivity of the data was somewhat offset by the data last month, which was revised on a much lower level. This correction has then helped remove some of the pressure off of the currency pair and enabled it to move towards 1.3350 before finally settling at just under this particular range. The pair eventually dropped towards 1.3260 where it is currently situated.
The pair was met with a lot of buying and this has helped the pair to slowly recover towards 1.3300 points, and the correction in the country’s retail sales data enabled the pair to go even higher. The Canadian dollar has also weakened as a reaction to the repeated failed attempts of oil prices to recover from its recent slump, causing the USD/CAD pair to recover towards 1.3350 points and even surpassed this particular barrier.
For today’s session, there are no major news releases from the US economy aside from the oil inventory data, which is expected to affect the status of the CAD based on the currency’s previous price action. Expect the Canadian dollar to drop in value as a reaction to this particular data and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3400 points for the duration of today’s trading session.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 23, 2017
The risk-off market sentiment alongside the softening of copper and other commodities affected the Australian dollar on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the AUDUSD was neutral following the sell-off occurred on Tuesday. The sellers found a hurdle around 0.7650 mark. The handle slowed down the seller’s movement and the price was rejected. The spot was confined near the region as its progresses in an aimless manner.
The commodity-linked pair tested the 50 and 200-EMA while the 50-EMA crossed on top of the 100-EMA touching the 200-EMA as shown in the 4-hour chart. Also, the 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while the 100-EMA shifted downwards while the 200-EMA showed signs of being neutral.
Resistance entered 0.7700, support is at 0.7650.
The MACD declined which confirmed the weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator en route downwards.
A break to 0.7600 region will pass the attention to the level 0.7550.
Attachment 13418
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017
The Canadian currency was unable to sustain its upside momentum as it currently endures the continuous weakening following the weak prices of crude oil.
The greenbacks rebounded 1.3330 and reversed towards 1.3375 in which the buying impetus seems short-lived. The price headed back in the mid-session of Asia and begin to retreat afterward.
The pair continued to decline amid early European trades and attempted to cut through the 50-EMA, nevertheless, failed to do so which caused it to reenter under the moving averages. Furthermore, the 50-EMA remain to move lower, 100-EMA appeared neutral and the 200-EMA headed upwards.
Resistance covered 1.3400, support is at 1.3330.
The MACD histogram was spotted at the centerline. On one side, an entry in the positive territory will favor buyers’ strength and on the negative grounds will allow sellers seize the control within the market. RSI was confined in the neutral area.
A break under 1.3330 mark would indicate further weakening towards support level 1.3260.
Attachment 13438
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017
The recovery of the greenbacks coupled with the BBA Mortgage Approvals of UK place pressure towards the British currency on Friday.
The Cable secured its bullish market position on Friday. The spot leaves the upper limit of the channel in the night and slowed down near its lower limit during the morning session of Europe. The GBPUSD kept steady amid the day maintaining its seat close to the 1.2500 region.
The 4-hour timeframe illustrated the major stayed aloft moving averages, seeing the 100 and 50-EMAs to drive higher while 200-EMA turned neutral.
Resistance touched 1.2500, support hit 1.2400.
The MACD indicator grew less presenting weak position of the buyers. RSI oscillator sits next to the overbought grounds, confirming for a higher move.
A move over the 1.2500 level would likely take an advance move towards 1.2600 mark.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 27, 2017
The positive figures of Manufacturing and Composite PMI from the countries, France, Europe and Germany offered some strength to the single European currency. Particularly, German index which attained the strongest level for almost six years. Meanwhile, the greenbacks obtained a weaker position after the treasury yields inch lower in which provided further support for euro.
The EURUSD continued to stay in the hands of the bulls on Friday. The EUR reached its lower limit in the ascending channel over the night and jumped higher. The price also spiked from the mark 1.0760 towards 1.0800 amid EU morning sessions and sit still in the New York trades.
The 4-hour chart determined that the pair resumed its development on top of the moving averages as the 100 and 50-EMA preserved a bullish pattern while 200-EMA came in neutral.
Resistance entered 1.0800, support touched 1.0750 region.
MACD indicator strengthened which showed a buy signal. RSI oscillator edged upwards.
In case the level 1.0800 broke, the next level would possibly be at 1.0850.
Attachment 13439
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2017
The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pair’s trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pair’s value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pair’s previous gains which was made last Monday.
Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pair’s price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.
For today’s session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USD’s strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.
Attachment 13441
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017
The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USD’s recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.
The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USD’s strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.
For today’s session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: March 29, 2017
The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar declined in the beginning of Tuesday trading but turned around and found significant support level at 0.7587 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bullish candle was seen and the market tries to move to higher towards the .7750 level and above.
Later on, the market was able to break higher than the 0.7648 resistance level completing the downtrend from 0.7749 to 0.7587 level. It is more favorable to buy this pair with chances for a breakout in the gold market which traders are trying to attain and if they are successful in doing so higher than $1262 level, this would give higher returns to the traders.
The current price could further go up towards the next target at 0.7700 zone while a break lower than the support level at 0.7587 could follow downtrend towards 0.7500 mark.
Attachment 13442
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017
The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollar’s strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trump’s frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.
For Thursday’s session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fed’s monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.
For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administration’s ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trump’s proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trump’s ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.
Attachment 13449
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017
The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of 1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.
The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channel’s upper limit.
The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.
In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.
Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.
The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.
As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017
The US dollar is positioned near its weekly highs on Tuesday but the bullish tone of German jobless rate stalled its advancement which offered another leg to the common European currency.
Furthermore, the price maintained a bearish sentiment last Friday, however, the bears did not hold its stance longer favoring the bull to reversed few of its ground.
The price bounced towards the area of 1.0675 amid Asian session on Friday. The EURUSD made a reversal to the mark 1.0700 throughout the European trades.
The 4-hour chart showed the EUR/USD cut through the 100-EMA downwards while 100 and 200-EMAs directed upwards, showing the 50-EMA to drove downwards.
Resistance was seen at 1.0700, support entered at 1.0650.
The MACD histogram grew less which indicates a sell signal. RSI indicator spent the day around the oversold territory, confirming a renewed higher move.
Forecasts say a move on top of the immediate resistance involves higher chance of testing the region 1.0750. Alternatively, a sell-off has a probability to occur towards mark 1.0650.
Attachment 13463
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017
The renewed figures of British Gross Domestic Product saddened the investors as it presented lower than expected results. The report stalled the current recovery which pushed the spot downwards.
The Cable started the day with a bullish tone. Traders successfully lead the price near the resistance level 1.2500 where the spot met new offers. The GBP/USD stirred away from the barrier in the mid-session of Asian hours and sustained a downward sentiment amid European trades.
The price moved close the mark 1.2450 in the middle part of the day in which the sterling lost its selling impetus.
The 4-hour chart pointed out the 50-EMA being tested by the major. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-EMAs preserved its bullish pattern, alongside the 200-EMA to appear neutral.
Resistance touched 1.2500, support entered 1.2400.
The MACD histogram increased indicating weak seller’s position. The RSI maintained its position within the neutral grounds.
The major is seen struggling with an aim to build towards the recovery gains. A break over the region 1.2500, the next focus would probably the 1.2600 mark.
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017
On Friday, the New Zealand currency was kept intact below the selling pressure on the back of the sluggish business confidence released by ANZ.
The suffering of kiwi extended its softening until Friday. The sellers ran out of steam despite maintaining the control and breaking under the level 0.7000. Moreover, they were able to drove the NZD/USD lower.
During the morning, the pair traded in a tight range, viewed in the middle points of 0.7000 and 0.6980.
According to the 4-hour chart, the spot crossed downwards to the 50-EMA and resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50 and 200-EMAs continued to move down while the 100-EMA steered higher.
Resistance touched the region 0.7000, support made an entry at 0.6950 mark.
The MACD weakened indicating strength for the sellers. In case the histogram stayed within the positive zone, the position of the buyers will strengthen. The RSI indicator is in the oversold levels.
The price was stuck in a range in order to get some steam used for further activities. There is a possibility of minor correction. Having broken the 0.7000, the radar will prompt 0.7050 level.
Attachment 13467
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 4, 2017
The USD/CAD pair had a fairly good trading session yesterday as it tested its range highs and is now trading at just under its range highs. The USD/CAD is expected to remain within the 1.3300-1.3400 region as of the moment and this was very evident during yesterday’s session. The market is now waiting for the string of economic data set to be released within this week. The market is now in a ranging and consolidation mood as traders prepare themselves for the possible repercussions of this said release of various economic data.
Oil prices dropped a bit below $51 yesterday, which is one of the main reasons behind the sudden weakness in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on oil prices and as such, an increase in oil prices would mean an increase in the CAD and vice versa. And since oil prices dropped yesterday, this resulted to a weak CAD as well and caused the USD/CAD pair to go above 1.3350 points before moving towards its range highs of 1.3400 points. The currency pair was then met with a lot of selloffs, and although yesterday was a generally very dismal trading session, volatility levels are expected to increase today as several economic data are scheduled to be released within the week.
The Canadian Trade Balance Data will be released today, and the market will be monitoring this reading since this is a very essential economic basis for the Canadian economy especially due to its trade relationship with US. This is expected to increase volatility in the pair and could cause the USD/CAD to break through 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.
Attachment 13468
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017
The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pair’s bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pair’s inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pair’s bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.
The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firm’s analysts had the said information but regardless of Lacker’s manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.
However, during today’s session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pair’s bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during today’s series of sessions.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017
The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pair’s bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.
The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the country’s economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the country’s imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.
However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.
For today’s session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pair’s price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.
Attachment 13470
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged on Wednesday session. The market tries to move the price towards the 112 level but still with downward pressure in the upper channel. The pair recovered after some losses as it settled close to 111.44 level despite the market sentiment getting better. Asian shares were seen to advance in the Wall street after the Nikkei PMI rallied to 52.9 in March data as its highest in less than two years. On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI reaching 52.4 this month denoting a steady demand for goods and services.
The overall trend of the pair will be in consolidation but the traders should expect choppiness in the trend.
The Resistance level is seen at 112 while the support level comes in at 110 mark and this could persist as the trading range of the pair for some time. A break lower than the 110 mark could induce the pair to further go down towards the 108 level. The 100-SMA maintains its bearish tone while the RSI indicator stayed in neutral after the market lost its impetus to go higher. It is expected for the pair to maintain uptrend before the NFP data to be issued on Friday.
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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017
The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.
Attachment 13473
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017
The New Zealand dollar surged following a break higher than the peak of the hammer during the Thursday session. A strong resistance level is found at 0.70 handle. It is anticipated for the pair to have a volatility and it could increase towards the 0.71 handle when the jobs data comes out and break higher than 0.70 mark. There could also be reversals and the support level to position close to the 0.69 handle. Nevertheless, traders should expect volatility for today’s trading session.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017
The European currency was kept intact below the pressured area against its U.S peer which would likely post further losses. Germany released a mixed data while exports and imports did not meet traders’ expectations. The strong figures of Trade Balance have given support for the EUR. On the other hand, the dovish remarks of ECB President, Draghi place pressure on the major.
The entire perspective showed moderate changes on Friday. The EUR/USD stayed near the neutral spot during the morning session as its trades close to the lower end of its weekly narrow range. Moreover, the sellers came in active in the first part of the day pulling the spot downwards. The major cut through the level 1.0650 touching 1.0630 amid late trading of Europe.
Renewed selling pressure occurred prior the New York open. Sellers were able to direct the price through the points 1.0610-1.0600.
The price settled under the moving averages as registered in the 4-hour chart, 100 and 50-EMAs turned lower while 200-EMA continued to heads up.
Resistance reached 1.0650 area, support highlighted 1.0600 region.
The MACD histogram softened which signaled sellers’ strength. RSI headed southwards confirming a current downtrend.
The spot is expected to resume a bearish tone within a short period of time. A break under 1.0600 is awaited as it may trigger for a lower support.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: April 10, 2017
The Australian dollar became weak on Friday along the sluggish statistics of Performance of Construction Index. Meanwhile, the risk off sentiment amid Asian session have put pressure on risk assets including treasury yields, equities, and the Aussie.
The pair continued to be well offered last Friday and resumed a negative sentiment throughout the day. The AUD leave the region 0.7550 during the night trades extending its bearish impetus within the day.
The sellers were able to reach the 0.7515 mark and rebounded. The major hovered over its session lows until the outset of North American hours.
As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the AUD/USD is positioned under the moving averages which shifted lower. Resistance holds 0.7550, support pierced into 0.7500.
The MACD histogram sustained its level affirming sellers’ strength. RSI indicator is found near the oversold territory which signaled a lover move.
Forecast says the pair would continue to decline within a short period of time. We still expect for a further move towards 0.7500.
Attachment 13487
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2017
The GBP/USD pair has managed to make a slight recovery during the previous trading session as the USD strength wavered slightly and is now trading at just over 1.2400 points. The strength of this currency pair is not expected to translate into a bullish stance since the pair could possibly persist with its ranging and consolidation action on both sides of 1.2400 points. The market has been very slow during yesterday’s session and this is expected to seep through up to today’s session, especially since the majority of traders are now in a stop and stare mode as they do not have any kind of significant trade bases as of the moment.
The uncertainties surrounding the Syrian war has somewhat died down since there are no recent updates with regards to the ongoing war in the region. However, there’s no denying that these problems continue to exist and this is why traders are still afraid to direct their trades into any direction lest they be caught once the pair reverses its price action due sudden events such as the US airstrike on Syria last week. The GBP/USD pair is now caught within the range of 1.2100-1.2600 and does not look poised to move in any direction now that the Brexit negotiations are about to begin. The start of the negotiations are not expected to induce significant volatility since both sides are expected to hold their own. This is also the reason why traders are refusing to take specific trade directions for the moment.
For today’s session, the UK CPI data is scheduled to be released while there are no major releases from the US economy. The GBP/USD pair is expected to stay put no matter how the CPI data pans out within the day.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 12, 2017
The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesday’s session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.
There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.
Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.
It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.
For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.
Attachment 13491