Thread: Iraqi leadership's failures raise pressure on U.S.

THIS IS A REALLY INTERESTING READ....

Iraqi leadership's failures raise pressure on U.S.
By Paul Richter, Times Staff Writer
May 21, 2007

WASHINGTON — As Iraq's government compiles a record of failure, the Bush administration is under growing pressure to intervene to rearrange Baghdad's dysfunctional political order, or even install a new leadership.

Publicly, administration officials say they remain committed to Prime Minister Nouri Maliki, even though after a year in office, his elected government has failed to complete any important steps toward political reconciliation — the legislative "benchmarks" sought by U.S. officials.

But privately, some U.S. officials acknowledge that the congressional clamor to find another approach will increase sharply in coming months if no progress is made toward tamping down sectarian violence, bringing more minority Sunnis into the government and fairly dividing up the nation's oil resources.

Intervention "is the eternal temptation for the Americans," said one U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing internal deliberations. "As we get closer and closer to the fall, and the benchmarks are not met … there will be a growing appeal to the idea that if we can replace the top guy, we can get back on track."

Although U.S. officials vow not to meddle in the government they helped to create, they have brought their influence to bear again and again, including in Maliki's selection as prime minister in early 2006. In January of this year, top U.S. officials considered, and narrowly rejected, a proposal to try to reorganize the fractious political order around a new moderate coalition.

Americans could spur change through a multitude of diplomatic channels and could use their influence with other Iraqi groups and leaders to shake up the political order in Baghdad. For instance, Washington could encourage a parliamentary no-confidence vote on Maliki, then quietly work a new coalition to choose a leader to its liking, analysts said.

Many Iraqis, as well as Arabs from neighboring states, are convinced that a U.S. move is only a matter of time, given the political paralysis in Baghdad. One sign of the rising expectations is that two Iraqi political groups are trying to position themselves to win American backing as a replacement government, U.S. officials said.

A party headed by former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, with quiet backing from Saudis, Egyptians and Persian Gulf emirates, has been seeking allies among Iraqi groups and in Washington, U.S. officials said. Hoping to build support, Allawi's allies from neighboring countries tried to arrange for him to attend the meeting on Iraq in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el Sheik this month. The plan was abandoned when Maliki threatened to refuse to take part if his would-be successor was there as well.

Meanwhile, the party long known as the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the largest Shiite Muslim faction, has been changing its image to make itself appear more in the mainstream — "more presentable," said the U.S. official. In one such sign, the group announced recently that it was dropping the word "revolution" from its name. It is now known as the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council.

In the United States, congressional pressure on the White House is coming from both parties, and is growing. Although Republican lawmakers have been reluctant to criticize President Bush's troop buildup strategy, they have eagerly expressed their chagrin at Maliki's government.

"The Iraqi government needs to understand that they're running out of time to get their part of the job done," said Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the Senate minority leader.

Other Iraqi leaders have long had admirers within the U.S. government. Allawi, a secular Shiite with strong ties to Sunnis, has had advocates in the CIA and the State Department. Allawi's transitional government, installed under strong U.S. pressure, was often accused of corruption, and lost popularity with both Shiite and Sunni Muslims because of his support of U.S.-led military action in Najaf and Fallouja.

When Allawi ran for parliament in 2005, some officials urged that the administration make a special effort to help his cause, an idea that was shot down by top officials. In the end, his slate received only 14% of the vote.

Vice President Adel Abdul Mehdi, a French-trained economist and a top Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council official, continues to have supporters in Washington, including Meghan O'Sullivan, a senior National Security Council aide who recently resigned her post overseeing Iraq policy for the White House.

Since January, when the administration rejected the proposal to try to form a new governing coalition, many officials have taken a more cautious view. They fear that U.S. pressure could alienate Iraqis and undermine Bush administration claims to support democracy, while not delivering results.

Many outside analysts warn against intervening and question the value of new leadership during a period of crisis.

"There is going to be a constant temptation to try to rearrange the government…. But fundamentally, institutions are what matter," said Danielle Pletka, a vice president at American Enterprise Institute, a Washington institute with ties to the White House. "One guy does not a success make."

Maliki is not a "transcendent, charismatic figure," said Ellen Laipson, president and chief executive of the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. "But there's no guarantee that if we changed parties we'd get something we liked."

The current U.S. approach is to try to pressure and cajole the Maliki government to adopt the key measures aimed at political reconciliation. U.S. objectives include one law that would divide oil revenue among the ethnic and sectarian groups, and another that would help onetime members of Saddam Hussein's banned Baath Party to reenter government.

A parade of U.S. officials, including Vice President Cheney, has visited recently with Maliki. On his stop in Iraq early this month, Cheney "gathered [Iraqi officials] in his embassy and told them, 'Very frankly, you have to do something,' " recalled Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish lawmaker. " 'If you don't deliver, we can't defend you.' "

So far, the U.S. strategy has yielded few results. In February, U.S. officials declared that victory was at hand on the oil law. But since then, progress has ground nearly to a halt.

In a recent conference call, a U.S. official in Baghdad shocked diplomats at the State Department's Foggy Bottom headquarters in Washington with a gloomy status report on the oil law. A Washington diplomat, taken aback, blurted, "What do you mean? We've been claiming it as a success. The president's been lauding it," recalled one person who was there.

In one limited attempt at intervention, U.S. officials have pushed a proposal to shift the distribution of power in the country. They want Maliki to work on major decisions with Iraq's presidency council, comprising three officials whom Washington considers constructive and moderate: President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Vice President Abdul Mehdi, a Shiite; and Vice President Tariq Hashimi, a Sunni.

Maliki at first resisted, seeing the proposal as an infringement on his powers. But lately, U.S. officials said, he has been more open to the idea.

The Americans also could shape a new government without leaving fingerprints, analysts said.

The Bush administration could quietly apply its influence in choosing a new prime minister if Maliki's government fell as the result of a no-confidence vote. Under parliamentary rules, only 50 lawmakers are needed to call such a vote. The government falls if it does not win support from half of the 275 members of the body.

The Al Fadila al Islamiya party and the bloc led by Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr already left Maliki's coalition this year.

"If any further deputies were to desert him, it is hard to see how Maliki could win a vote of no confidence," said Juan R. Cole, an Iraq expert at the University of Michigan.

Still, organizing a new government would probably take months, time that the Bush administration doesn't really have. And to hope that the next prime minister will be a success requires a good deal of optimism.

Americans have introduced the country's first three prime ministers with the same accolades, praising Allawi, Ibrahim Jafari and Maliki as "hands-on guys, who can make the tough decisions, who we can work with," the U.S. official recalled. But in each case, the pattern quickly changes. Said the official: "It's enthusiasm, then disenchantment."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...eadlines-world
__________________

REMEMBER LAST WEDNESDAY'S MEETING AT THE PRESIDENT's HOME?


"...In one limited attempt at intervention, U.S. officials have pushed a proposal to shift the distribution of power in the country. They want Maliki to work on major decisions with Iraq's presidency council, comprising three officials whom Washington considers constructive and moderate: President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Vice President Abdul Mehdi, a Shiite; and Vice President Tariq Hashimi, a Sunni..."
"...Maliki at first resisted, seeing the proposal as an infringement on his powers. But lately, U.S. officials said, he has been more open to the idea..."

This was the start of this new policy and SO FAR it has generate the deal that will bring the constitutional ammendments 140/142, Sunni Civil Rights and (if these others pass) HCL Tuesday for a vote (hopefully passing all by Wednesday - as this then goes back to the President's Council late Wednesday, published in the Gazette by Thursday...RV...Late Thursday night/Friday Morning...just in time for Friday's Signing of the WTO Intent to join...and before coming to the oil conference on the 27th)

BEFORE SOMEONE SAYS...BUT, I've just read that....PLEASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING POINT OF VIEW (TIA):


We were always told and advised that the disinformation around the RV would require hip-boots or wings (in this case) to stay above.

Many articles on the Kurds being against the oil law are old and a re-hash of stories from several weeks ago...How do I know? Look closely at the terminology and events that populate these stories...there is one posted today that people are referring to that mentioned that the oil minister had just said that oil contracts done without the oil law in place would be illegal...that event happened over three weeks ago...I read that as breaking news...but, three weeks ago.

The other thing to be causious of is the quote(s) from this MP or that MP...look at the American Congress...some of these people being quoted would be like asking Trent Lot on an abortion bill.

See, you need to know who is being quoted and where are they in the leadership of their party and please remember that junior MPs will vote as there party leadership tell them to.

Like "RR" said in his post today...these votes will be decided with a phone call between the real power brokers and not by some junior MP who wanted the folks back home to know that he is hard at work by getting himself/herself quoted in the newspaper.

Originally Posted by fredgwest1999

BEFORE SOMEONE SAYS...BUT, I've just read that....PLEASE CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING POINT OF VIEW (TIA):


We were always told and advised that the disinformation around the RV would require hip-boots or wings (in this case) to stay above.

Many articles on the Kurds being against the oil law are old and a re-hash of stories from several weeks ago...How do I know? Look closely at the terminology and events that populate these stories...there is one posted today that people are referring to that mentioned that the oil minister had just said that oil contracts done without the oil law in place would be illegal...that event happened over three weeks ago...I read that as breaking news...but, three weeks ago.

The other thing to be causious of is the quote(s) from this MP or that MP...look at the American Congress...some of these people being quoted would be like asking Trent Lot on an abortion bill.

See, you need to know who is being quoted and where are they in the leadership of their party and please remember that junior MPs will vote as there party leadership tell them to.

Like "RR" said in his post today...these votes will be decided with a phone call between the real power brokers and not by some junior MP who wanted the folks back home to know that he is hard at work by getting himself/herself quoted in the newspaper.

and if you notice most of the kurds not happy articles are being published at iraqiupdates website which ive said repeatedly publishes old news and its usually with a slant.

(hilarious trent lot synonym)

Fredgwest1999, Thank you for that explanation.

SGS, I agree that "Iraqiupdates" site are always 2 to 3 days late if not more in updating their site as well.

So Come On RV, It's not "Git R Done" anymore.....It is now " Git R Passed"

RV here we come........

Do you guys think part of what the USA is pushing for is the RV?

Why or why not?

i know that my particular part of the U.S.A. is pushing for it!

Excellent observations Fred! Thanks so much for your insight!

lewscrew

THIS JUST IN FROM THE IRAQI PRESS

azzaman=

Bombing Office of the President and Parliament Najat Al-Dulaimi of the assassination, agrees to extend the deadline to amend the Iraqi constitution Baghdad Karim Zaire London struggle Laithy Riyadh and Washington decade tend political blocs in Parliament to grant the Commission a further amendment to the Constitution to achieve a practical outcome despite overcome mainly on term given to them while conflicting views of the deputies belonging to the Iraqi parliament blocs on the future Iraqi government, led by Nuri al-Maliki,

but they agreed unanimously that Maliki was not implemented program, which committed before Parliament when forming his government and that after one year of this government,

With the new Maliki urged to complete the reconciliation of the American President George Bush in a phone call by the official spokesman.

The deputies who disagree explored "time" their views on the reasons for this failure and defended Jaber Ziyadi member of the Dawa Party, led by al-Maliki in Parliament told the (time) of the existence of the Mahdi Army militia and said that the aim of defending themselves against Sadamien and Altkeverien longer a militia and the main obstacle to reconciliation in Iraq.

While Deputy compatibility Osama Al-Tikriti told the (time) to the controversy over the change and Defense Minister Abdul Qader Al Obeidi essential for progress towards reconciliation.

With the office of the Speaker of Parliament Mahmoud Almchidani came directly Nge Adnan Al Dulaimi, head of compatibility of the assassination in a suburb of Justice.

The Almchidani Al-Dulaimi and one of the most prominent advocates of change and the Minister of Defense.

An American official who wished to remain anonymous, told the Los Angeles Times yesterday that the days are numbered Maliki.

He stated : "As we approach more and more of collapse and the lack of respect for established standards, more acceptance of the idea of whether we can change the person responsible (Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, "and return to the track." while the Gulf states have agreed on security strategy to counter the possibility of leakage of armed men who belong to extremist organizations.

Gulf strategy against infiltration from Iraq and said Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, Saudi Minister of Interior in statements reported Saudi News Agency yesterday there security strategy has been agreed on the basis of review and renewal if they require additions in line with the present circumstances. He added Prince Nayef announced last month the arrest of 172 suspected of being militants that Saudi Arabia has deported five men to Kuwait and who gave arrested in the city for distributing extremist propaganda tapes. He continued,

speaking before the interior ministers of the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council on Sunday that Iraq represents a security threat to the entire region. The security situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate and the growing phenomenon of terrorism which became fertile ground for producing a generation of terrorists learn and practice all methods of murder and destruction. deteriorating security situation in Iraq has great risks to the stability of our region and the security situation in our states.

an American official said yesterday high that Washington was confident that the British Prime Minister is expected Gordon Brown will not withdraw British troops from Iraq early.

The official, who requested anonymity journalists that Washington has an excellent level of discussion and dialogue with the British government on the future policy in Iraq.

These statements came after leaks about the possibility of taking Brown decision to withdraw from Iraq during cent on the first post-prime minister.

The confirmed last week that the Finance Minister Gordon Brown next Prime Minister a successor to Blair.

The official said absolutely not agree to such a position.

we believe that there will be continuity from the British government as to the approach to deal with Iraq and Afghanistan.

His not .. I do not expect any precipitate withdrawal or unilateral or sudden. we do not believe that we can depart from Iraq.

he would consult with the Iraqi government and Iraqi people over the next few weeks and then propose new ideas.

American pressure on Iran and the American official said that the Washington talks with elements of the Sunni insurgency did not yield results and should exert greater pressure on Iran to force it to stop the funding and training of members of the Shiite groups violent.

His Is there anything .. in talks with the rebels American produce results .. the answer is no. until now .. not. He added that what it is doing in Iraq, Iran is not limited to Iraq from the standpoint of Iran strategic warning that Tehran will take a more aggressive in other issues, such as continuing its nuclear program to squeezing one of them.

He said that support for further UN sanctions against Tehran is growing more than ever and that Tehran would lose the support of China and Russia.

For their part, leaders vowed Democrats in the United States Congress pass a new bill to finance the war in Iraq Afghanistan before the Congressional recess scheduled next week despite the continuing disagreement between Democrats and President George W. Bush on setting a date for withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and the objectives which the Iraqi government commitment.

In this context, the Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House Democrats support the commitment of American troops on the battlefield and providing the necessary resources before the anniversary of the commemoration of American soldiers who have died in wars next week.

reneging on the government program to another level Al-Takriti leadership in the Islamic Party and deputy Accord Front of "time" yesterday that Maliki has "implemented as stipulated by the government on national reconciliation and resolve militias and the abolition of abolishing the Baath Party and the former officers to the Iraqi army and the improvement of economic and living conditions and an end to sectarian violence in the country. "

He added that "the deportation and murder on the basis of ethnicity continues in all Iraqi cities continue with quotas in light of the ministers were incompetent in office, and rampant corruption" in the various institutions and the Iraqi state. quotas cause problems on his part, Jaber Ziyadi deputy in the parliament of the Dawa Party and member of the chopping to "time" that "no Dawa Party, which is headed by al-Maliki Maliki not bear responsibility for the deteriorating security situation and economic."

He emphasized that "al-Maliki has not been implemented as stipulated by the government," but parts of the blame on the occupation, which is a responsibility for security in the country ", CdTe "that the political process which is based on sharing one of the reasons for" non-implementation of the program, "said Ziyadi member of the Committee Uprooting in parliament that" reconciliation can not play with Sadamien and Altkeverien allied with them. "

He stressed that the model of reconciliation supported by Maliki is "supporting tribal groupings Anbar anti-base." It describes the forces p jackets this formula shift the tribes to government instruments.

Al-Takriti, in the course of evaluating the work of the government during the first year of life,

"The Accord Front had warned that it would withdraw from the Maliki government if it fails to implement the return promises to the Iraqis."

Another great post Fred!!!
Thanks