Thread: NordFX - ECN/STP, MT4, SR, Multiterminal broker

Olympic DemoCup from NordFX – Games, Which Traders Make Money on

In parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Forex broker NordFX held its own "Olympic Games".

And so, the Olympic flame went out. For some this sport event became the way to the medal stand, for others – bitterness of defeat.
The rush of winning is in human nature, and this refers not only to wrestlers or track and field athletes, but also... to traders. Each of us wants to prove to the whole world, that he is faster, stronger, and more successful than the others. Sportsmen demonstrate it during the Olympic Games and the championships, as for the traders, DemoCup contest, which has been held for six years now by Forex broker NordFX, gives them such opportunity.

Only virtual demo accounts participate in this two-week contest, which takes place in the middle of each month. However, the prizes awarded to the winners are quite real – monthly prize drawing makes $3500, $3000 from which are divided among 10 winners, and 10 contestants obtain consolation prizes of $50.

In total, since March, 2010, about 300.000 dollars were awarded! Even though anyone can take part in this contest absolutely for free.


The thing, which juices up this contest, is that traders from almost 100 countries take part in it, namely, from: China and Russia, Ukraine and India, Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka, Romania, Iran, Thailand, Poland, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Belarus, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Estonia, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Bulgaria, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the USA, Morocco and Syria, Israel and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Great Britain, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Tajikistan, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Brazil, Libya, Armenia, Angola, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Ghana, Slovakia, Uruguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Yemen, Argentina, Latvia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Philippines, Cuba, Kenya, the Republic of South Africa, Taiwan, Peru, Morocco, Venezuela, Tunisia, Guatemala, Italy, Georgia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Portugal, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Swaziland and even from Saint Helena...

"The geography of the contestants is so broad, that DemoCup can be easily called a world-wide contest", the leading analyst of NordFX and the jury member John Gordon says. "And so we thought why not to hold our own Olympics for the traders in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. So said - so done: we established the organizing committee, developed special rules and allocated a very plum prize fund of $23100 for the winners.

Unlike standard, regular DemoCup, in the Olympic DemoCup we drew three sets – total 89 – of awards in team and individual scorings. The contests were held from August 8 to August 19, and during all these ten days the heat of the struggle did not subside for even a minute, the traders looked for the slightest opportunity to increase individual and team deposits.
And if in the medal ranking at the Olympic Games in Rio the Russian team took only the 4^th place, here it could step on the top of victory podium. In a very short time twenty best traders from the Russian team could increase their deposit by 22.5 times – from two hundred thousand to almost four and a half million virtual dollars! Such that they received yet 10000 real dollars – $500 for each member of the "gold" twenty.


The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000, and the representatives of China, having overtaken Russian sportsmen in Rio, took only the third place in the Olympic DemoCup, having received $2500 as a prize. As for the host country of the Olympic Games – Brazil, it took the fourth place. One more South American country – Venezuela - was in Top 5.
As for individual scores, Russian trader, who increased the deposit from 10.000 to 1.670.000 dollars, that is by 167 times, became the absolute winner here! Having won in all three nominations, he obtained $2000 as an award.
The organizers didn't forget about consolation prizes of $50 each, which got representatives of Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Belarus, Indonesia, Mexico and India.

"I'd like to emphasize", J. Gordon says, "that contests on demo accounts require traders to have not less, and sometimes even more self-control. If, trading on the real account, the trader is constantly struggling with a fear to lose his deposit, he has to overcome euphoria from the first successes and the seeming impunity – because the money is not real. Of course, a loss won’t ruin him, but he won't become a winner either. In DemoCup it is very easy to cross that fine line between a justified risk and mindless adventurism."


"In conclusion", the jury member sums up, "I'd like to congratulate our winners and invite all traders to take part in the next stages DemoCup, which, as a reminder, unlike the Olympic Games, are held every month. The annual prize fund makes $42000, and you can study the rules of the contest on NordFX website, they are simple. I'm sure, that you will appreciate advantageous terms and high quality of the services, which NordFX offers to each client. And the number of our clients, – John Gordon smiles, – already makes about 1.500.000 – a big close-knit family Olympic family!”

Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August – 02 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled:

– all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, “supported” by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016;

– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1, insisting on the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94;

– as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on Н4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend. It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pair’s movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255К to 164К–188К;

– trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 – as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both Н4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80% of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.2500–1.2800;

– giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.9840–0.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00–107.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 100% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500, had started;

– with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30;

– the assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4, predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;

– clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north. As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data from Switzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate – on Friday.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 – 16 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;

– as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;

– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50, and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;

– if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;

– giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;

– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;

– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;

– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;

– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards;

– as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960;

– as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25;

– Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears;

– the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow.

– as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00;

– talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 – 07 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts voted for the pair’s rise up to the resistance of 1.1260–1.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40% of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from – at the level of 1.1240;

– currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result – in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points;

– the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33;

– giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100%. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640, and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90%) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80%) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151К to 170К–176К, EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70% of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000;

– certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65% of experts, backed by the absolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline – down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060;

– as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally – about half of them vote for the pair’s rise, and the same number – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80–101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pair’s fluctuations to 99.00–104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week;

– as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.9700–0.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support – in the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, over 75% of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

September 2016: Pitfalls of Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

It is always interesting to watch how people make their choice and then understand why it happened. What is meant here is not future USA presidential elections, but the choice of the investors, subscribing to trading signals in the same-name service in MT4 platform. After all, people are not just subscribing, they virtually trust their, often considerable, funds to a given trader - provider of the signals.
It is well-known that anything money-related requires special attention. Naturally, this also applies to automatic copying of trades of other traders. Technically, it is possible just to choose the provider of the signals showing the maximum profit and copy his trading. But is it always the best option? As usual, the leading analyst of NordFX broker company John Gordon expresses his opinion on the subject. And, as often happens, he is not inclined to look at the choice of the subscribers only through rose-coloured glasses.

Following the results of September 2016, Top 10 of the most popular signals among the subscribers is as follows:

I. CALM (growth 2045%, 498 subscribers),
II. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 91%, 468 subscribers),
III. Seven Majors Renko Scalper (growth 301%, 336 subscribers),
IV. Revolution (growth 4138%, 317 subscribers),
V. New Stable Forex Profit (growth 44%, 261 subscribers),
VI. Small to BIG Money (growth 468%, 143 subscribers),
VII. WaterFragance (growth 1544%, 122 subscribers),
VIII. F Cracker (growth 281%, 98 subscribers),
IX. WaterFragance2 (growth 38%, 91 subscribers),
X. SURVIVOR (growth 2060%, 84 subscribers).

“If you don't mind”, J. Gordon peers at the monitor of his computer, “I will begin the analysis with the signal called CALM – the newbie of our TOP rating, which entered the TOP 10 for the first time. I tell you straight away that it took the first place not only among the subscribers, but also in the rating created by MetaQuotes company. And this is by no means unimportant, as two of these ratings very often don't match among themselves.

So, why do more than fifteen hundred investors have such a deep fascination for that signal, so that they entrusted to it $2.200.000 for management?
I guess, I'll be right in assuming, that its author has solid history as PAMM-manager. This is evident from his another signal – HOZYIN, which is accompanied by numerous deposits and withdrawal of funds.
As for CALM, this signal is a little more than one year old, and during the first 12 months it showed the growth of about 25% per month. With this, the drawdown repeatedly appeared in the area of 40% from the deposit, after which the author of the signal decided to lower the risks at least to 30%. But, as often happens, together with the risk the profitability also fell. According to the forecasts of the author, it will make from 10% to 15% per month now, and it's possible that with such parameters the signal will leave TOP 10 investors' preferences. But so far it makes an impression of a quite stable and profitable signal.”

“Here I want to pay attention to one specific moment connected with online monitoring on the website MQL5.com," J. Gordon continues. “Among the main and most marked parameters ‘The maximum drawdown’ is specified here. This parameter, on the one hand, is rather terrifying for the investors, but on the other hand – it is not reasonably objective. The paradox is that eventually it can only increase, but not decrease in any way.
Let's try to look into the matter of this nuance by the example of the same CALM signal.
When it started in life its author applied a rather risky strategy, and the maximum drawdown on equity at that time made 44%. If he began to risk even more, and the drawdown would increase, let's say, up to 60%, then it would be fixed in the corresponding column. However, our author reduced the risks, and value of his maximum drawdown fell to 30%. So what? He can trade another five, ten, twenty years, reducing the drawdown from 44% to 30%, 10%, to zero! But in this column from here to eternity those 44%, which were formed at the time of ‘wild youth’ of this signal, will be specified.
Does that sound fair?
In my opinion, such lifelong 'black spot' (do you remember the novel “Treasure island” by Stevenson?) isn't not quite fair. And the only option to get rid of this 'curse' is to register a new signal. But then the whole months-long or long-term work of the provider will be ruined, and this new signal will be at the very bottom of the rating, which no potential subscriber and investor will ever get to.
In my opinion, at least one more parameter – the average value of the drawdown for the whole life span of the signal - could be set forth near the maximum drawdown. Until this happens, I urge you to look attentively at the chart of the drawdown, which is included in monitoring of each signal. And before subscribing, compare dynamics of this chart to the data on profitability of the signal. This will give a true and fair view.

Data on profitability is generally very important and evident parameter which allows picturing what to expect from a subscription. Let's take, for example, Revolution signal – the IV place in this rating. The growth in a year and a half makes more than 4000% with the maximum drawdown of 8% – one would wonder what more could it be asked for? But if we look at the results of last months, it turns out that everything is not in the way that it wished to be. Indeed, last May 2015, the profit made 150%, and currently, in recent months, the picture has been absolutely different: April – 1.66%, May – 0, June – 1.53%, July – 6.79%, August – 3.31%, September (at the time of this article writing) – 0.62% at all! What thousands of percents are there to talk about? The annual forecast of MQL5.com – is just over 16% per year. It is up to you, dear readers, to decide whether it is worth subscribing to such signal.”

“And one more piece of advice", J. Gordon continues, “choose for subscription only those signals which can be analyzable on rather long time period – at least about a year. Otherwise, in a number of cases, you can discover unpleasant surprises. I don't want to suspect anybody of anything, but sometimes the results on the growth chart before the thin vertical gray line and after it differ significantly.
To clarify, this line means the beginning of online monitoring on the part of MQL5.com.
So, for example, in August one more signal, which in a month with the drawdown of less than 35% gained over 2800% of profit, approached TOP 10. Like I said: more than 2800% in 31 days! It's incredible! But it had been prior to the beginning of the independent online monitoring. And afterward – in September – it showed 37% of profit and drawdown of almost 60%. (That very drawdown which with a bonus of 100% most often leads to closing of accounts). I don't know how the author of this signal can explain such a decline in profit by 75 times. But I know that in September he instantly registered two new signals which showed the growth of... 6000% and 7000%, respectively, in less than a month!”

“I will watch this fantastic trader closely and I will surely tell you about his progress (or failures). Meanwhile I want to emphasize”, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up, “that we aren't going either to frighten investors, or, on the contrary, persuade them to subscribe to any given signal. We only want to share our experience of analysis of signals, to show what hides behind the figures and charts of monitoring, and to ensure that you received if not stratospheric, but though real profit. Admit that a bird in the hand is worth two in the wood. It is, by the way, one of the fundamental principles of work of our company – stability and reliability. Forex is serious business, which you should take extremely seriously. And, certainly, respectfully!”

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex_signals #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 – 14 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151К to 170К–176К. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151К instead of 167К, and then it announced that the print for September made 156К. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months’ pivot point – to the level of 1.1200, very quickly;

– last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday – during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3(!) minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i.e. 450 points lower – with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicating robo traders and the president of France, François Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main “suspects”. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430;

– as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened – gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90;

– USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.9700–0.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area – the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90% of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend;

– GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher – up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120;

– USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pair’s rise, just over half – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70–103.90, and then decline – first to the level of 102.70, and then – to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75;

– the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, almost 80% of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 – 21 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– referring the future EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (90%) predicted that the pair would decline to the area of 1.1000, which did happen. First with a single bound it travelled 220 points by Thursday, then it stalled at the level of 1.0985, following which we saw a 70 points rebound, in a result of which many traders, using averaging of positions, could recover from a deep drawdown and catch a break. Then the pair again reversed to the south and on Friday evening it made a second attempt to consolidate below the support of 1.1000, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.0970;

– as for the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on H4 turned out to be right, it expressly pointed to continuation of the descending trend, which had begun on September 06. The levels of 1.2340 and 1.2120 were indicated as the support levels. This scenario panned out almost entirely. As early as Tuesday during the Asian session the pair easily got over the first support turning it into the resistance, and it sharply plunged further. Inertia of the decline was so strong that the pair couldn’t even fall 30 points below the support of 1.2120, but then, likewise, it sharply went up to the intended resistance area. The entire second part of the week the pair spent trying to get over the newly formed resistance of 1.2165, and eventually it ended the week at the level of 1.2185;

– USD/JPY. As a reminder, experts' opinions split almost equally in this case: just under half of them voted for the pair's rise, just over the half - for its fall. And here, as with GBP/USD, the graphical analysis proved to be right, it pointed to predominance of bullish sentiment and the pair's rise. But as for the ultimate target of the upswing, the forecast differed from reality. The graphical analysis on H4 predicted that the pair would go up to the resistance of 103.70-103.90, and the one on D1 - up to 106.40. In reality, the pair reached the level somewhere in between the specified highs – at the level of 104.65. The end of the week coincided with the high of October 6 - 104.155;

– The medium-term forecast for USD/CHF starts panning out slowly but steadily. The strength of bulls starts outweighing, and thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to the intended target - 1.0100. Last week it could consolidate above the level of 0.9800, but the resistance of 0.9900 appeared to be an insurmountable barrier on its way, and the pair failed to rise above the level of 0.9910.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– it's clear after a deep decline of EUR/USD, all 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 point to the south. As for the analysts, only half of them agree to this opinion. They indicate the support of 1.0900 as the short-term target. The alternative viewpoint provides for return of the pair to the level of 1.1100, the next resistance will be at the level of 1.1200. As for the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, according to it, the pair should first decline to the level of 1.0940, and then transit to the sideways movement within the range of 1.0940-1.1000. In a longer term the number of supporters of fall increases, and now more than 60% of experts reckon that the pair will go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825;

– GBP/USD. Here, about 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and only 5% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330, and then, maybe it will return to the level of 1.3000. The graphical analysis on D1 strongly disagrees with this scenario, according to its readings the pair can fall below the area of 1.1850. With this, we should take into consideration the fact that for a long time formation of a given trend will depend not so much on the readings of Great Britain as on announcements of politicians on terms and conditions of United Kingdom exit from the EU;

– USD/JPY. For a third week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: one half, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, predicts the upswing of the pair to the high of 105.00, the second half votes for its decline to the level of 102.80 and further down - to the area of 102.00. The graphical analysis on D1 also votes for fall and transition to the sideways trend within 102.80-104.30;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 60% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the bulls' strength have weakened and the pair is in for a temporary rebound to the benchmark area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts reckon that the ascending trend hasn't ended yet, and the pair will be able to go further 50 points - up to the high of 0.9950. The medium-term target remains the same - 1.0100, though the number of supporters of such a scenario decreased from 80% to 65% as compared to the last week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex signals #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/