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Japan Export Growth Steady in October





Japan's export growth was steady in October, which indicates that global demand for Japanese cars and electronics will likely extend the economic recovery into the current quarter.


According to data from the Ministry of Finance, exports increased 14.0 percent year-on-year in October, driven by shipments of automobiles to Australia and liquid-crystal device production equipment and raw materials for plastics to China. It follows a 14.1 percent rise in September.


The recent figures follows data which showed that Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4 percent in the third quarter, propelled by strong external demand.


In volume terms, exports increased 3.8 percent in October from the previous year, following a 4.8 percent annual rise in September.


The value of exports to the United States was up 7.1 percent in the year to October led by motors and construction and mining machinery, following an 11.1 percent rise in September.


Japan's trade surplus with the United States increased by an annual 11.3 percent in October to 644.7 billion yen ($5.75 billion), a source of concern given President Donald Trump's demand for bilateral trade talks to fix trade imbalances under his “America First” policy.


The data recorded the fourth consecutive month of annual expansion in Japan's trade surplus with the United States.


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Thai GDP Growth Accelerates In Q3





Thailand's economy grew at a faster pace in the third quarter, data from the National Economic and Social Development Board showed Monday.


Gross domestic product expanded 4.3 percent year-on-year, bigger than the 3.8 percent growth posted a quarter ago.


The economy was forecast to grow 3.9 percent.


Quarter-on-quarter, GDP advanced 1 percent versus 1.4 percent in the previous three months.


On the expenditure-side, private consumption grew 3.1 percent annually versus 3 percent a quarter ago. Likewise, growth in government spending improved to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent.


Gross fixed capital formation advanced 1.2 percent, much faster than the 0.4 percent increase seen a quarter ago.


For the external sector, exports and imports of goods and services climbed 7.4 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.


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BRAZIL: Real Remains Unchanged As Local Holiday Drains Market Liquidity





A local holiday in S?o Paulo, the main financial center in Brazil, kept the country's stock market closed Monday and drained liquidity from the foreign exchange trading, leading the real to end the session unchanged at R$ 3.2640 per dollar.


According to Correparti's analyst Ricardo da Silva Filho, there were dollar trades in cities where there was no holiday, but the smaller trading volume resulted in an increased bid/ask spread.


"There was no market benchmark to the dollar price. Only those who really needed were trading," he added.


On Tuesday, when the market volume is set to rise again, traders will focus on the developments regarding the pension reform bill, said analysts from H. Commcor.


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Yellen to Retire from Fed Board after Powell is Sworn In





Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that she will step down from her seat on the Fed's Board of Governors once Jerome Powell is confirmed and takes oath as the new chairman of the U.S. central bank.


Yellen, in a letter to President Donald Trump, also pledged to do everything in her capacity to ensure a seamless transition of power to Powell, who was nominated by Trump to succeed her earlier this November.


It is widely anticipated that Powell will take her place when Yellen's term ends in February. Despite Yellen being able to stay on as Fed governor until 2024 given that board terms run for 14 years, it has been a tradition for departing Fed leaders to depart the board and at the same time as a courtesy to give the next chairman clear leadership of the FOMC.


Yellen has been credited with stabilizing the economy and steering the monetary policy from the defensive mode that came after the 2007-2009 recession and financial crisis. She served as the Fed vice chair before being nominated as Fed chief in 2014 by Democratic President Barack Obama and was the first woman to head the U.S. central bank.


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BRAZIL: Ibovespa Rises With Expectation For Discussion Of Pension Reform





Ibovespa, the benchmark stock market index in Brazil, closed up 1.57% at 74,594.61 points on Tuesday amid a better external scene and investors' view that president Michel Temer is closer to get the pension reform bill voted in the House of Representatives later this year.


"In the external scenario, it was a very positive day for risky assets. There was news that led to a positive expectation on the pension reform bill, which could be voted at the beginning of December, giving the market a boost," said Rafael Passos, an analyst at Guide Investimentos.


According to H. Commcor's chief operating officer, Ari Santos, the cabinet reform promoted by Temer leads the market to believe that he would have the political strength to pass the pension reform bill.


According to Santos, the expiry of stock options brought selling pressure at the end of the trading session.


For Wednesday, Passos sees Ibovespa keeping the upward trend, once the political scene continues to corroborate the purchase. Santos foresees space for profit-taking and expects a fall for Wednesday.


Meanwhile, the locally traded U.S. dollar closed down for the third consecutive trading session (-0.36%), at R$ 3.252, reflecting an increase in the expectation of the pension reform bill's approval and a quieter external scenario, with a drop in the greenback against emerging currencies.


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UK Government Borrowing Increased in October





The UK government borrowed more than expected in October, following a six month period to September during which public sector borrowing had came in sharply below expectations. The figure comes ahead of the Budget, and the monthly deficit was larger than economists had predicted.


According to the Office for National Statistics, the public sector, excluding state-backed banks, borrowed a net £8 billion in October, which is £0.5 billion higher than the same period in 2016. The figure implies that borrowing is poised to come in below the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of £58.3 billion for the financial year as a whole.


The rise in October came after a six-month period during which public sector borrowing dropped to its lowest level in a decade and came in below the short-term outlook predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility.


In the financial year-to-date, the public sector had to borrow £38.5 billion, £4.1 billion lower than in the same period in 2016. September's borrowing figures, which already came in £0.6 billion below expectations, were revised downwards, from £5.9 billion to £5 billion.


Chancellor Philip Hammond will present the latest Budget on Wednesday. Hammond has to balance calls for more government spending against the prospect of softer future economic growth, which could affect tax revenues.


A deterioration in the long-term outlook and an expected downgrade to productivity growth forecasts is likely to raise projected public borrowing.


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LATAM: Bradesco Points To General Slowdown In Inflation During 2017





Brazilian bank Bradesco said that throughout 2017 there was a general reduction in inflation in Latin America - except in Mexico, where inflation accelerated. By 2018, Bradesco's analysts expect inflation in the region to continue at healthy levels, leading central banks to keep interest rates at the current patterns.


In Colombia, according to Bradesco, the slowdown in food prices was the main factor for the decline in inflation. Such prices reached a year-on-year increase of 15.7% in mid-2016 and fell to 2.5% in October, which contributed to a 3.8 percentage point decrease in general inflation. Thus, annual consumer prices receded to 4.0% in 2017, after recording a peak of 9.0%.


In Peru, the rise in food prices caused by heavy rains in the first months of the year was quickly reversed, Bradesco noted. The prices returned to the previous level in the following months.


In Argentina, the dynamics of inflation have been different from those of other countries. After a rise of 41.0% in 2016, driven by the withdrawal of subsidies for electricity tariffs, inflation declined this year, reflecting mainly the lower impact of these measures. However, the speed of this fall has frustrated expectations, since from January to October inflation already accumulates high of 19.4%, exceeding the ceiling of the central bank target, of 17.0% for 2017.


For 2018, however, Bradesco indicates that it would be necessary to monitor oil prices and the possibility of the climate phenomenon La Ni?a hits with greater intensity.


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U.S. Yields Slide as Fed’s Concerns About Subdued Inflation Persist





Prices on U.S. government bonds advanced, causing yields to retreat, after the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting of the Federal Reserve showed policymakers are worried about the weak inflation, affecting the prospects for rate hikes in 2018.


The 10-year Treasury note yield edged down by 4.1 basis points to 2.320 percent. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year note declined by 3.8 basis points to 1.735 percent. The yield on the long bond or the 30-year Treasury note fell by 2.1 basis points to 2.741 percent.


On Thursday, financial markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday, while stock and bond markets are slated for an early close on Friday.


The readout from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve OPen Market Committee indicated a December rate hike continues to be on its planned track, a move that is highly expected by markets. Before the release of the minutes, traders in the fed fund futures market placed a 97 percent probability of a rate hike in December.


However, the overall perception of the meeting's talks were mostly dovish as some officials voiced their concern regarding inflation remaining below 2 percent for longer than their current expectations.


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Japan Manufacturing Growth Strongest Since March 2014





Japan's manufacturing activity expanded at the steepest pace in more than three-and-a-half years in November, survey figures from IHS Markit showed Friday.


The Nikkei flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, climbed to a 44-month high of 53.8 in November from 52.8 in October.


Any reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.


Among components, output, new orders, employment all increased at faster rates in November.


"A cheaper yen and higher material prices have intensified cost pressures, as input price inflation increased to a 35-month high in November," Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit, said.


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U.K. Consumer Spending Powers Economic Growth





Consumers fueled the British economy's growth in the third quarter as spending on vehicles regained footing but Brexit appears to be taking a toll on business investment.


According to a report by the Office for National Statistics, household spending increased 0.6 percent, the fastest pace in a year. However, business investment slowed down and net trade weighed on growth. Total GDP grew at an unrevised rate of 0.4 percent, higher compared to the 0.3 percent expansion in the last quarter.


Business investment increased 0.2 percent, its worst performance since the end of 2016 and net trade shaved 0.5 percentage points from growth as exports declined and imports increased.


Despite consumer spending strengthening from growth of just 0.2 percent in the previous three months, recent reports have underlined the risk of a slowdown before a crucial holiday shopping period as the squeeze on incomes from inflation begins to bite.


The economic data comes a day after Chancellor of Exchequer Philip Hammond issued a downgraded economic outlook due to the weak productivity and headwinds presented by Brexit.


The Office for Budget Responsibility estimated the economy will grow 1.5 percent this year, down from the 2 percent growth projected in March and estimated growth will remain below 2 percent through 2022.


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