ForexPros Daily Analysis June 16, 2011

US Dollar Move: The Easy Money Is Gone, Wait on Pull-backs

Stock markets are lower across the globe, after Greek debt worries and a slowdown of the U.S. economy. The results seen on the FX board is obviously higher reaction on US dollar and Japanese yen, currencies that were also supported after extremely bearish reaction on some of commodity markets yesterday during the US session.

Now, the question is how to catch further strength of the US dollar?! Well, we can count five wave patterns on a lot of majors, so jumping into the market around current levels itís definitely something that we are not interested in. As such, we really hope that some solid correction will occur, and give us an opportunity to go with the market.

US Dollar Move: The Easy Money Is Gone, Wait on Pull-backs
Looking at the Eur/Usd pair, decline from the 1.45 can be counted very easily in five waves, which means that in the near future, a corrective bounce higher should unfold. Well, itís definitely not easy to call a bottom after almost 400 pips of decline. As such, ALT count also valid with wave (ii) already done at 1.42.

We however need to be patient traders, and wait on a solid pull-back before we may consider shorting this pair! We are talking about wave (ii) retracement towards 1.43!

Something similar is also unfolding on Aud/Usd, a pair that should continue lower while trades below 1.0715 resistance. The main reason for weakness on thus pair, is of course a lower commodity market!


Forex Trading analysis written by Gregor Horvat for Forexpros.


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