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Fundamental Analysis, January 10, 2011
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in his testimony in the Senate Budget committee that signs of a sustainable recovery are continuing to strengthen. He added, however, that he is still concerned over the slow recovery of the labor market, and warned that the deflation risk. In summary, a moderate improvement in the rate economic recovery exists in 2011 as compared to 2010, according to the chairman.
In the macroeconomic scale, the United States Department of Labor has reported last Friday that 103 thousand new jobs have been added to the American labor market in December, with the rate of unemployment dropping to 9.4%, the lowest point since May 2009. Economist predictions were for a sharper rise of 150 thousand jobs, but a more moderate decline in the unemployment ratings, to a level of 9.7%.
Index declines have been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stocks of the export sector, this due to the United States employment report and data regarding China's trade balance. The Hong Kong stock exchange declined by 0.2%, the Shanghai stock exchange retreated by 0.4%, the Seoul exchange dropped 0.5%, the Singapore exchange dropped by 0.1%, the Sydney exchange climbed 0.2%, while the Tokyo stock exchange is closed today due to holidays.
Analysts estimate the gold is expected to reach a level of 1,800 United States dollars per ounce of gold in 2011. Since gold is currently trading at 1,370 United States dollars per ounce, this constitutes a climb of over 30%.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 10, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
The Euro has been demonstrating the sell signal with target level at 1.2899. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the downside movement is 1.2813 the first support level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second support level at 1.2645. The downside movement continues while the price is below the Kijun-Sen(1.3150), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing downside movement, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, indicating the current downside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.2813, and further to 1.2645. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3150. Short positions should be cut manually in case the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.3790
Weekly - R2 = 1.3611
Weekly - R1 = 1.3257
Weekly Pivot = 1.3078
Weekly - S1 = 1.2724
Weekly - S2 = 1.2545
Weekly - S3 = 1.2191
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurrf.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/eurrfmot.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.5906
Weekly - R2 = 1.5778
Weekly - R1 = 1.5661
Weekly Pivot = 1.5533
Weekly - S1 = 1.5416
Weekly - S2 = 1.5288
Weekly - S3 = 1.5171
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/gbpww.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/gbpmm.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 10 to January 14, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.0453
Weekly - R2 = 1.0332
Weekly - R1 = 1.0143
Weekly Pivot = 1.0022
Weekly - S1 = 0.9833
Weekly - S2 = 0.9712
Weekly - S3 = 0.9523
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/audww.gif
_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
Monthly - S3 = 0.9044
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110110/audmm.gif
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 11, 2011
Asia's stock markets have recorded moderate index rises his morning, with China's Shanghai index ascending by 0.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng trading at a 1% rise, South Korea's KRX strengthening by 0.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 continuing to trade in negative territory, dropping by 0.3% of its value.
Japan's Minister of Finance, Yoshihiko Noda, has announced yesterday that his government will join China in supporting Europe by purchasing the debt of problematic nations like Portugal, Spain, and Italy. Japan, he said, will purchase about 20% of the Special European Fund that has been founded to rescue nations from the EU's debt crisis.
The President of Portugal, Anibal Cavaco Silva, denied reports that the country is under pressure to accept international aid to avoid the spreading of its debt crisis, due to rumors that Germany and France trying to pressure the country into accepting an aid package of 50-100 billion Euro. The President added that the country does not intend to ask the IMF for aid, nor is it under any pressure to accept such aid.
On the background of these reports, the European stock markets have locked on a negative trend for the second day running, erasing about half the gains recorded last week yesterday. As such, the London stock exchange locked at a decline of 0.5%, the Frankfurt exchange retreated by 1.3%, the Paris exchange declined by 1.7%, whereas the Lisbon exchange dropped by 2.7% due to the strengthening of the estimates that Portugal will be forced to ask for a European aid package.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD,Upwards Movement, January 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/euryooo.gif
EUR/USD
Investor concerns regarding the economic state of Portugal have burdened the European currency, which recorded sharp declines in the last five days of trading, both against the dollar in particular and other leading currencies in general. The Euro United States dollar pair dived about 500 points from the peak levels of 1.3400, which it visited recently, to the low levels of 1.2900, where it is currently trading.
An upwards breach expected to pave the way back to a level of 1.3000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.3380. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 1.2850. We must point to the positive deviation on the MACD indicator, which supports positive predictions on the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY,Opportunities to Buy Janaury 11, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/euryy.gif
Euro Japanese Yen
The technical angle allows us to identify an attractive buy opportunity;The fact that the pair has failed to breach the support level at 107 hints that it is possible that the Euro Japanese Yen pair had bottomed out in expectation of a new wave of upwards movement. It is also important to point out the positive technical deviation on the MACD indicator, combined with the appearance of the Bat bullish reversal pattern. These allow for entry into a buy deal with an exit goal near the meaningful resistance level of 109.70 Japanese Yen for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 11, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/gbpusd%204.gif
Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5515). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the Chinkou Span fixates above the price graph, and then trade up with the target to 1.5661. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5515. For successful trading it is also recommended to wait until the Bollinger Bands start diverging.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 11, 2011.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110111/GBP_h4.gif
The GBP/USD situation is developing according to the corrective scenario, that implies forming a wave structure of a horizontal triangle. At the same time, its wave is probably developing further. If so, it is likely that levels near the 57 figure might cause another decline of the pound price in the range of the future d wave of such triangle.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011
AUD/USD is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse wave C of the medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). The targets of the corrective upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9668-0.9803 (wave 3).
Resistances:
- 0.9866 = .382 retracement, already hit (!)
- 0.9886 = .50 ret
- 0.9905 = .618 ret
If the price reverses down and continues the downtrend the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9903-0.9987, 0.9987-0.9878-0.9968.
Supports:
- 0.9813 = .618 retracement is hit (!)
- 0.9792 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9769 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9709 = .764 ret
- 0.9683 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now above the zero and the overbought area is 20-30 pips away (0.9880-90) which roughly corresponds to .50 retracement - 0.9886.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 12, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing corrective subwave 4 (colored orange red in the chart) within impulse daily wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-129.49-128.98.
Resistances:
- 130.72 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 130.92 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
However if the price keeps moving down its nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.29-130.37.
Supports:
- 129.58 = .382 retracement
- 129.33 = .50 ret
- 129.08 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and the oversold area is within 10-20 pips - 129.85-75, which is a good moment to consider longs.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 12, 2011
Support levels: 0.9820, 0.9711, 0.9650
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is declining further after it successfully broke the support level at 0.9891. The viewpoint to the pair is bearish. Now the extension of the downside movement with target at 0.9711 should be expected.
Earlier the pair has broken through the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9711 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%209.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD is testing the resistance level near 1.5665. If it is broken, short positions should be closed as it means the downtrend is broken.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5665 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2011.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 12, 2011
The USD/JPY pair is consolidating after it has successfully broken the resistance level 82.85. However, the viewpoint at the pair is still bullish and the upside movement is expected to resume in the nearest future.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...cture%2010.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 12, 2011
The price of oil locked yesterday at a 2.1% climbed over a level of 91 United States dollars for one barrel, oil's highest price level in the last week, this was due to concerns of reduction in oil production due to the clothing of the Alaska oil pipe and an oil field in the North Sea.
The Japanese government announced that it would purchase European obligations in order to aid the region with dealing with its debt crisis. The Asian stock markets responded positively to the announcement, recording index rises. The Tokyo stock exchange rose by 0.2%, the Seoul stock exchange rose by 0.2%, while Hong Kong's stock exchange rose by about 0.8%.
Europe's stock markets set a 28-month high yesterday, on the background of Japan's announcement. The country has joined China in its attempt to aid Europe in braking the continent's debt crisis. By the end of the trading day, the London exchange climbed by 1%, the Frankfurt stock exchange climbed 1.2%, while the Paris exchange climbed by 1.6%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of labor announced that the amount of available jobs in the United States declined in November after it rose to the highest level in two years in the month previous, a sign that the recovery in America's job market may be slower and longer than expected. The number of available jobs in the United States declined by 80 thousand in November, to a total of 3.25 million, a 2.4% decline as compared to October's 3.3 million. The stream of economic publications will continue throughout the week, and will include retail sales data, the consumer price index and the industrial production index, the manufacturer price index, trade balance etc.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 12, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/gbpusd%204.gif
Overview:
The sell signal has cancelled, instead a buy signal with target level at 1.5722 has formed. However, the movement has resembled a sideways one for several weeks. The formed sell signal is strong and not confirmed since the Chinkou Span has not yet fixated above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. In case the current signal is confirmed, i.e. the Chinkou Span fixates above the graph, the first target for the upside movement is 1.5661 the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5778. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.5530). The Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph, which does not confirm the current buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show sideways movement, the lines are not diverging and directed sideways. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.5661, and further to 1.5778. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.5530. If the MACD reverses down, long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen red line
Kijun-Sen blue line
Senkou Span A light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for January 12, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/JPY_h4.gif
The USD/JPY currency pair did not make another attempt to overcome the correction level 50.5% and resumed growth, supposedly starting to form the 5th wave of the whole local uptrend, developing since December 31. Thus, at the moment its 4th wave looks complete. At the same time estimated target for this 5th, located near 84.30 is still in force.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD,Our Overall Outlook Remains Bullish, Janaury 12, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110112/eurrr.gif
EUR/USD
Since the pair still hasn't succeeded in breaching the minor resistance at 1.3040, there exists a chance for a brief wave of downwards movements towards the 1.2900 level. In such a case, there will be an opportunity to collect the Euro United States dollar pair at an improved price before the upwards trend enters high gear. Further, a breach of the resistance levels at 1.3040 and then at 1.3100 will strengthen and confirm the pair's direction, expected to take it at the very least to the resistance level of 1.3370 United States dollars for one Euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011
The GBP/JPY is now moving within subwave C (colored red in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 133.03-125.47 and expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-130.37-129.59.
Resistances:
- 131.25 = .764 retracement
- 131.67 = objective point (OP)
- 132.23 = OP
If the price keeps retracing the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 128.59-131.13.
Supports:
- 130.54 = .382 retracement
- 130.36 = .50 ret
- 130.18 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-gbpjpy-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero level and the oversold area is within 15-20 pips which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement (130.54).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 13, 2011
The AUD/USD has finished wave 1.0255-0.9803 (wave A of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart) and now is developing corrective wave B which on smaller scale consists of subwaves A and B (colored orange red in the chart), the latter is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-0.9971.
Supports:
- 0.9907 = .382 retracement
- 0.9887 = .50 ret
- 0.9867 = .618 ret
- 0.9843 = .764 ret
If the wave up continues with the break of 0.9971 the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803.
Resistances:
- 0.9976 = .382 ret
- 1.0029 = .50 ret
- 1.0082 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...-audusd-in.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that medium term wave is up, it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross below the zero level to consider long positions. The oscillator is now at the zero and the oversold area is 25-35 pips away (0.9920-10) which roughly corresponds to .382 retracement - 0.9907.
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com