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Fundamental Analysis, October 04, 2011
The Euro fell nearly 9-month low against U.S. dollar while the new discovery scared investors worried that Greece can not meet its fiscal deficit target of 7.5% this year, which had committed just two months ago with the agencies that manage the delivery of aid from the rescue plan.
It is no surprise as we knew, but it seems as if the market still had the hope that somehow, no one knows what the news would have been less bad.
The euro has reacted to the floor in any case though, as I say, the impression is that this was granted. In reality, not just the fact that they can not meet its objectives, the concern is uncertainty about how you can get out of this mess.
As I said the secretary general of the OECD this morning, "the original sin is to have linked the future of the euro to Greece." Nor should we exaggerate, but it is true that the relaxation in compliance with the terms of both access and retention in the euro area are spending their bill.
Finance ministers of the Eurozone are rethinking the private sector in the second Greek rescue package, if the package is reduced, the potential of a Greek default to rise dramatically.
The most important of the afternoon session will be industrial orders in the U.S. (expected: 0.0% Previous: 2.4%).
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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NZD/USD Rebound, October 04, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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Buy long Above 75.20
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF wave analysis for October 4, 2011
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In general, as expected the USD/CHF pair resumed upside movement in favour of the American currency. Thus it continued to form the inner wave structure of the estimated 5th wave in the 3rd (or C). At the same time, given the inner wave dimension of this 5th wave we might suppose that it is targeted at the level located between the levels 0.9230 and 0.9235.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 5, 2011
AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 0.9985. On still smaller scale we have subwave 4 (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 0.9387.
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9985-0.9387, and 0.9878-0.9387.
Resistances:
- 0.9615 = .382 retracement
- 0.9632 = .50 ret
- 0.9686-90 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 0.9757 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the downside to continue the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9701-0.9878, 0.9878-0.9387-0.9596.
Supports:
- 0.9293 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9205 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9134 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9105 = OP
[imghttp://forex-images.instaforex.com/userfiles/20111005/1005-01-au-en.gif[/img]
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 5, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave A is now developing against the downtrend from 116.78, therefore wave C may be coming to an end. Within this wave (A) there are two waves of still smaller degree (colored magenta) with subwave B still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 127.31-116.78, and 120.78-117.66.
Resistances:
- 119.19 = .50 ret
- 119.56 = .618 ret
- 120.80 = .50 ret
- 122.05 = .618 ret
If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 116.78-120.78, and expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-116.78-120.78, 120.78-119.06-120.73, 120.78-117.66-119.06.
Supports:
- 117.16 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.23-10 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 115.99 = objective point (OP)
- 115.17 = SXOP
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (5-10 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-60 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Oil review for October 5, 2011
On Tuesday futures on oil closed at their high for more than a year, following stocks amid new concerns over the debt crisis in Europe.
By the end of NYMEX trades quotes of November futures on low-sulfur oil dropped by USD 1.94 (2.5%) to USD 75.67 per barrel, the record low since September 23, 2010. On ICE futures on Brent oil dropped lower than the psychologically important level USD 100 per barrel, by USD 1.92 (1.9%) down to USD 99.79 per barrel, the lowest closing level since February 7.
The day started with an abrupt decline during which the prices decreased by more than 3.4%. Yet onwards the market returned part of its positions and entered a positive zone for a while in the context of Fed’s president Ben Bernanke speech. He called legislators to help house owners and said that the central bank is ready to take further steps to support the economy if needed. As a result, stocks spiked and the US dollar sank. Oil prices frequently follow stock indices and contradict with the US dollar. Nevertheless, by the end of the day oil ceded the positions gained earlier.
In his speech Fed’s president Ben Bernanke did not concentrate on the threat of inflation and a possibility of another quantitative easing round which reduced demand for oil futures.
Besides, investors have been leaving their positions on raw materials in the light of expectations of slower global economic growth. It also affected oil as well as concerns regarding the debt crisis in Europe.
Bernanke also said that the unemployment situation in the USA has been a source of more concerns than inflation.
Meanwhile, at their meeting finance ministers of eurozone did not make any firm resolution concerning the debt crisis in Greece which keeps on staggering markets as the global economic prospects are exacerbating. Investors have been escaping from futures on oil since ministers delayed their decision on providing Greece with another loan tranche.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, October 05, 2011
The stock prices had a significant rise after speculation that the European Union is considering making use of so-called European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which was created last year to provide demand for sovereign bonds in the Eurozone member countries in emissions problems and banks questioned for their possible lack of capital, but especially to leverage their purchases. This means that credit could buy bonds with money that exists in the background. Germany also by a large majority and 10 of the 17 member countries have already voted for (political support, for now, is).
But while the plan would help deal with the fall of Greece in default, especially alleviating the pressure on the countries of the periphery, not a structural solution would not eliminate the problem of fiscal solvency. It is believed that the plans do not provide a structural correction in the economy of these countries, but rather continue to lose competitiveness and supporting the costs of years of fiscal austerity, as they remain tied to the euro.
According to Angela Merkel, the rescue of Greece may need to be renegotiated, while European Commission President Jose Barroso called for more speed to create a relief fund and will press for the issuance of Eurobonds, as to which Germany objects. The Greek parliament approved a new property tax, strengthening their ability to facilitate meeting the goals required to ensure international financial aid.
The economic agenda of the day is expected ADP report shows an increase in unemployment of 73,000 jobs in September. Also there may be surprises for the expectations of the report Friday on payrolls.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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CRUDE OIL Bullish Outlook October 05 , 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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CRUDE OIL
The U.S. dollar rose against major currencies, which also put the price of oil under negative pressure. to reach the lowest in a year around 74.84 amid growing risk aversion in the markets, where traders are concerned the European debt crisis is worsening, prompting investors to lower assets performance. At this moment the price of oil is trading at 77.70. Here are two options, continue their upward sequence or decline again until 75.00
The outlook for oil prices remains generally lower. but we believe that before a new price rally bearish will have to consolidate at the levels of 75.60 and start an upward trend, at least to the level of 83.20
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GOLD Buy Above 16010.60 October 05, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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GOLD
The gold markets fell again on Tuesday as the “risk off” trade continues throughout most of the world. We haven’t seen a fresh low though, and continue to think that the general area we are treading currently is still supportive. The outlook for gold remains generally to the upside, however, we still expect volatility to continue to dominate gold prices Because of this, we are waiting for supportive candles instead of selling.
If the price of gold closed negotiations today over the pivot point of 1610.60, we will have an input signal to buy long, at least until the resistance level of 1754.60 as our goal.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for October 5, 2011
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With the opening of yesterday’s Asia Pacific session the USD/JPY resumed the indicated upside movement and closely approached the 77 figure level by the end of the day. At the same time the major wave situation is still complicated and indefinite. Based on this we can consider yesterday’s growth as formation of another series of abc waves within the continuous horizontal wave structure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 6, 2011
AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and subwave C is over at 0.9387, now we have potential corrective wave A developing that can terminate the whole movement from 1.0401. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0401-0.9387, 0.9985-0.9387, and expansions off 0.9387-0.9596-0.9487.
Resistances:
- 0.9686-96 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 0.9757 = .618 ret
- 0.9774 = .382 ret
- 0.9825 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 0.9894 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-0.9667, and expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9387-0.9667.
Supports:
- 0.9560 = .382 ret
- 0.9527 = .50 ret
- 0.9494 = .618 ret
- 0.9297 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9205 = objective point (OP)
http://forex-images.instaforex.com/u...6-01-au-en.gifOverbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 6, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and subwave A is now developing against the downtrend from 116.78, therefore wave C may be coming to an end. Within this wave (A) there are two waves of still smaller degree (colored magenta) with subwave B still developing.
If the price keeps falling the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-116.78-120.78, 120.78-119.06-120.73, 120.73-117.66-119.06, 119.06-118.03-118.80.
Supports:
- 117.77 = objective point (OP)
- 117.16-13 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 116.23-10 = confluence area of super expanded objective points (SXOP) and contracted objective point (COP)
- 115.99 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.78-117.66.
Resistances:
- 119.22 = .50 retracement
- 119.59 = .618 ret
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Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (30-40 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (60-80 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/JPY candlestick analysis for October 6, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY currency pair is rebounding after recent sharp decline, however it is still trading within a downtrend.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating a decline confirmed further. This candlestick was formed amid a rollback after a breakthrough of an upside channel, which means that the bears dominate on the market.
Besides, the currency pair broke the support level 110.10 which proves this point of view. Further another bearish combination Three Falling Methods was formed, which intensified the downside movement. At the same time a break of the Fibonacci projection level 61.8 targeted the pair to the support level 106.75. Break of 106.75 will probably lead to a decline to a psychologically relevant support level 100.00.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 105.33 as its break will cause upside movement to 107.00.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, October 06, 2011
Yesterday, world stock markets showed a growth of contributions to the
growing optimism of investors, supported by rumors that the EC is preparing
a plan to recapitalize European banks to large scale and in the expectation
that the IMF could be studying a fund to buy debt Italian and Spanish. The
mood of investors has improved thanks to discussions taking new measures to
support the European banking system and after the macroeconomic statistics
output stronger than expected in the United States. The dollar weakened
yesterday against most major currencies in cash, except the British pound
and Swiss franc while the dollar index, which reflects the dynamics against
a basket six currencies, fell yesterday to 79.00 from 79.83 the Tuesday.
This morning the British currency fell almost 200 points against the dollar
in a few minutes, and now recovers mildly positions after reaching the
minimum 1.5275.
Within few minutes, the monetary policy announcement of the European Central
Bank. In this regard, many analysts believe a rate cut timely interest.
However, the publication of retail inflation in the Eurozone, met last week,
would not lead to a measure of this type. In situations like the current one
is clearly showing the difference between countries that have a certain
economic boom and those who do not. An interest rate cut might somehow
encourage Greece and other countries in crisis. Instead, it would be very
damaging for Europe's largest economy, Germany.
The press conference of ECB President Trichet, from 8:30 am Eastern will
shed light on the fundamentals of the ad. Trichet leaves office in the
coming weeks, after which management will be able to criticize many things
except one: not being faithful to the statutes of the ECB. In the worst
moments, the officer did not stop talking about inflation, when the main
problem was not that, but a recession which is costing too much to leave to
Europe.
Also at 8:30 will be known in U.S. weekly jobless requests.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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EUR/JPY Bullish Outlook, October 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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EUR/JPY
The euro – Japanese yen pair has been recovering from its lowest recorded in
100.76. Right now is trading at 101.89 according to the Fibonacci indiador
we think the price of the pair must to descend a little more up to 101.40
nivles of 61.8% area shrinkage coincides with the fractal formed at this
level.
Technically, it is important to pay attention to weekly pivot located at
101.70 only to the extent that weekend to negotiate the pair above this
level will get confirmation of a real support and the possible beginning of
a new wave bullish is expected to lead to the euro-yen in the long term to
the price levels of 110.50
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/USD wave analysis for October 6, 2011
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During yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD currency pair was trading in a narrow
range with deviation amplitude 100 pips. At the same time the price is
forming the inner wave structure of the upside correction developing in
relation to the 3rd wave of the current downtrend section. If so, in the
nearest time the pound might resume downside movement in the direction of
levels located below the 53 figure mark.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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Fundamental Analysis, October 07, 2011
The biggest news yesterday was the result of the highly anticipated matches
of the BoE and the ECB, in which the central issue was the increase of the
stimulus. For starters, the BoE announced a dramatic increase of 75 billion
pounds in the purchase target assets (totaling 275 billion pounds), citing
the same reason strong pressure from bank funding markets. As expected,
interest rates in the UK were left unchanged at 0.50%. Following this
measure, the ECB announced a new purchase of bonds and the provision of two
categories of long-term refinancing in the coming months, in order to help
the banking sector to handle the prevailing lack of confidence in financial
markets. As for the meeting, there had been considerable debate about
whether we would be considering a rate cut, but it clearly has not
materialized.
Also, the jobless claims data in the U.S. have had a mixed character, since
the figures were smaller headlines than expected but have been offset by
upward revisions to data from the last week. The initial jobless claims
reached the figure of 401,000, when the forecast was for 410,000, but the
figure of last week, which had been 391,000, has been revised upwards by
395,000. Quite similar were the continuation applications, which had
impressed at first with 3700000 compared to 3725000 forecasting, but the
reviews of last week marred the joy to increase from 3729000 to 3752000.
In today's session in the morning, non-farm payrolls data for this month was
103 K. The markets predicted an addition of 57,000 jobs in September to the
U.S. economy, after zero growth in payrolls last month. The U.S.
unemployment rate was left unchanged at 9.1%. After the publication of this
data the main crossroads of the dollar rebounded upwards.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook October 07 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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GBP/USD
From yesterday to today from 8:30 am to 8:30 am on two-dollar pound has
risen so bullish, since its minimum of 1.5275 for more than 300 points.
Technically, the two-dollar pound gives clear indications of the possibility
of a long upward wave that can lead to resistance levels of 1.6000 and
higher still, to the maximum levels around 1.6600. However, it should take
long position in low levels of 1.5440. because the pair can correct up to
the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our short term goal puts it in
the resistance around 1.5720 dollars per pound of sterling.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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Crude oil technical analysis for October 7, 2011
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Analysis of crude oil for October 7 shows that the bearish trend is over but
the price consolidated at support level 3 that is why bullish movement is
now being observed.
Analysis: crude oil analysis for October 7 shows that the bearish trend may
well be over, the price consolidated over the support level 3 that is why
bullish movement is now being observed. At present investors’ sentiment
shifted in relation to the oil price. The first target of bullish trend is
83.20. Bullish trend will continue only after this level is broken. In case
this price level is broken, buying will be resumed with a target USD 89.94
per barrel. Bearish trading will be actual only below trend line 3. Awesome
Indicator points at the current upside movement of the price as the last bar
is green. It means that now opening long positions and reducing short ones
are recommended. If this indicator paints the closed bar red, it will be
another signal to reduce buying as it can be interpreted as starting
correction.
Trading recommendations:
At present it is recommended to buy oil with a target to 83.20. In case this
level is broken, it is recommended to keep on buying with a target to 89.94.
At the moment Awesome Indicator allows bullish trading. As to reducing long
positions, it is recommended to reduce them at forming of the red button in
the indicator’s window. Stop loss can be set below trend line 3 or the
nearest support level. Bearish trading is not essential now.
Apart from the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their
release are to be taken into account.
Clarifications to the pictures:
Awesome Oscillator - red and green bars in the indicators’ windows.
Trend lines – blue lines.
Support and resistance levels – red horizontal lines.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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