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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 22, 2011
AUD/USD has developed wave 1.0774-1.0477 - wave B of long term uptrend according to wave count - colored light green in the chart. Now potential wave C is developing from 1.0477. Within this wave on smaller scale we have A, B and C subwaves - colored magenta in the chart. And potential wave C is still developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0774-1.0477, and expansions off 1.0477-1.0634-1.0496, 1.0496-1.0615-1.0532.
Resistances:
- 1.0651-53 = confluence area of two objective points (OP)
- 1.0661 = .618 retracement
- 1.0725 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0750 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9707-1.1011, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0523-1.0714, 1.0714-1.0477-1.0634, 1.0634-1.0496-1.0619.
Supports:
- 1.0481 = OP
- 1.0463 = OP
- 1.0397-96 = confluence area of OP and XOP
- 1.0359 = .50 retracement
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...2-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (30-40 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for June 22, 2011
The AUD/CAD is declining further after a quite continuous consolidation. Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0189 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
Downside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the Stochastic.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0550 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0600.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110622/Picture_8.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for June 22, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF currency pair is still trading down after it failed to break the 0.8552 resistance level. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish as it is still in a downtrend.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF formed a Shooting Star candlestick, indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick shows that the pair demonstrated upside movement during several days, however, it rebounded after an unsuccessful attempt to break the 0.8946 level. At the next attempt of the bulls to fixate above 0.8900 the bears started to increase their influence and formed this candlestick.
Break of the support level 0.8747 proved this point of view. Successful break of the 0.8458 level, which is the Fibonacci projection level 61.8 from 0.9342 to 0.8552 on 0.8946, targeted the pair to 0.8350. Its break will probably lead to a downside movement to 0.8300.
Stop Loss should be placed slightly above 0.8552 as the break of this level will target the pair to 0.8747 and will lead to the formation of a short-term bottom at 0.8326.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110622/Picture_10.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/CHF Bullish Outlook, June 22, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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EUR/CHF
On the Technical level, the Euro - Swiss Franc pair, after having tested the level 1.1998,
is on the verge of a meaningful signal for the beginning of a new upwards movement . It is
recommend to buy when the price is above the level of 1.2150. It is estimated that such a
move would push the pair up to the significant resistance level of 1.2422.
The descent to the strong support level of 1.1980 this represents an opportunity to buy,
estimated that it will provide a strong basis for moving money.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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USD/CHF Bullish Above 0,8470 June 22, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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USD/CHF
The United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair continues its southward journey as part of a
downwards trend that technically could present stagnation and change the trend in the short
term.
Recommend to buy only if the price is above the bearish trend line or the weekly pivot
point around the 0.8460 level. It is possible to enter a buy deal already at the present
price levels, although another wave downwards the important support level at 0.8370 is also
likely. Such a move will serve us to increase the buy position with a brief stop loss order
set around the 0.8250 level. A partial realization can take place towards the weekly
resistance level, 0.8670.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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Fundamental Analysis, June 22, 2011
Stock markets had a bullish day yesterday, in which the main markets were buoyed by
expectations that the Greek prime minister would overcome the confidence vote in
Parliament, the first step to approve reforms to release the section of 12mM. € financial
assistance that would prevent the immediate default of Greece. Stock markets also reacted
positively to the Juncker statements ensuring that it would initiate a solution to the
sovereign debt crisis in Greece.
This morning gold was traded at around 1546.00 per ounce. Note that the precious metal
remains a focal point for investors, given the large number of questions regarding the
financial environment. Oil trade also proved temporary, as a result of concerns about
demand and supply. The commodities markets, except gold, are still showing caution.
The most important reference of the day is the Federal Reserve meeting followed by a
Bernanke press conference. Due to the slowing American economy shown by the latest
indicators, the most probable scenario is that the Fed confirms its intention to maintain
low interest rates over the next few quarters and continue reinvesting the balance of bonds
coming to maturity. The vision of the Fed on the evolution of the economy and inflation in
the second half and could be decisive backing to the closure of the bags if their estimates
of growth in 2011 remain above +3.0% .
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 23, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing potential wave C of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. To confirm this wave the price has to go below 128.90 (top of wave A). The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.90-130.51.
Supports:
- 128.41 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.11 = objective point (OP)
- 126.93 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 135.11-128.90, 132.30-128.90.
Resistances:
- 131.00 = .618 retracement
- 131.27 = .382 ret
- 132.01 = .50 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...3-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 23, 2011
AUD/USD has developed wave 1.0774-1.0477 - wave B of long term uptrend according to wave count - colored light green in the chart. Now potential wave C is developing from 1.0477. Within this wave on smaller scale we have A and B subwaves - colored royal blue in the chart. And corrective subwave B is still developing. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0477-1.0649, and retracements of 0.9707-1.1011, and expansions off 1.0774-1.0477-1.0649.
Supports:
- 1.0543 = .618 retracement (achieved!)
- 1.0465 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0359 = .50 ret
- 1.0352 = objective point (OP)
If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0774-1.0477, and expansions off 1.0477-1.0649-1.0532.
Resistances:
- 1.0661 = .618 retracement
- 1.0704 = OP
- 1.0810 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...3-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (5-15 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (35-45 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/CAD candlestick analysis for June 23, 2011
The AUD/CAD is declining further after a successful break of 1.0285. Earlier in a daily graph the AUD/CAD has formed an Evening Star candlestick combination indicating bearish signal, confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was formed after the pair could not break the resistance level 1.0550, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level means that this point of view is correct. If the pair fixates below the support level 1.0189 will probably lead to downside movement to 0.9937 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
Downside movement is supported by the divergence on the RSI and the Stochastic.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the 1.0550 level as its break will target the pair to 1.0600.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110623/Picture_7.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Oil review for June 23, 2011
Futures on crude oil closed with a gain on Wednesday amid oil reserves reduction exceeding the forecast. Market participants overlooked a pessimistic US economy assessment provide by the FRS.
By the end of NYMEX trades the rates of August futures on WTI oil grew by USD 1.24 (1.3%) and equaled thus USD 95.41 per barrel. Brent oil futures on ICE increased by USD 3.03 (2.7%) up to USD 113.98 per barrel. The quotations of oil futures have been on increase after the USD Energy Department announced that oil reserves decreased by 1.7 mln. barrels last week. The shrinking exceeded the forecast by analysts who had foreseen it to fall by 800 000 barrels. Shrinking oil reserves may be suggestive of growing demand of part of oil consumers such as oil processing factories.
Gasoline reserves showed an abrupt decrease by 500 000 barrels last week. The distillate inventories including residual oil and fuel oil rose by 1.2 mln. barrels and refinery utilization index gained 3.1% and hit the highest level since August last year. Analysts had expected a growth of gasoline reserves by 800 000 barrels and an increase of distillate inventories by 500 000 barrels a day. As the forecast shows, refinery utilization was to gain 0.3%. This data was a source of optimistic vision of US oil and fuel consumption. On Tuesday MasterCard Advisory's LLC informed that demand for the US gasoline increased by 0.5% up to 9.347 mnl. barrels per day which is the highest level since the Memorial Day.
Futures first lost positions hit earlier after the FRS noted that the US economy recovery is continuing at a slower rate than it had been predicted. Yet later futures restored the lost positions. The market observers said that the announcement published following the 2-day meeting of the FRS Open market operations Committee met preceding US economy assessments.
Bernanke also claimed that the factors slowing the recovery down are likely to be temporary. Concerns over slowing US economy recovery has been withholding demand for oil and kept traders in tension this month having pushed the oil prices on NYMEX lower than USD 100 per barrel. The contract price fell by over 7% for the ended period of the current month.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110623/Picture_3.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY wave analysis for June 23, 2011
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The USD/JPY currency pair did not manage to pass the 80 figure level and yesterday in the
evening started to move back in favour of the dollar. At the same time, the whole wave
structure formed after June 8 is starting to resemble a horizontal triangle. In any case,
it seems by the end of the previous day the price formed another abc waves series with
reduced c wave.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for June 23, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110623/eurusd_4.gif
Overview:
The euro is still observing a buy signal with target level 1.4595, however the signal is
weak, therefore it is recommended to resume trading after the price passes the Ichimoku
Cloud. The formed buy signal is weak and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above
the price graph and the price is inside the Ichimoku cloud. Therefore it is not recommended
to trade up until the price fixates above the Cloud. At the moment the first target for the
upside movement is 1.4516 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the second
target will be the second resistance level at 1.4720. Upside movement remains while the
price is above the Kijun-sen (1.4280), if the price fixates below this line it is
recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which
confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show
the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is
descending, which indicates current correction movement, this filter does not allow us to
trade up now, therefore it is recommended to resume trading up after the MACD reverses up.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the price fixates above the Cloud and trade up
with target at 1.4516 and further to 1.4720. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.4280 and
stretched up as the Kijun-sen advances. Iit is recommended to resume trading up after the
MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the
time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - June 24, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing wave C of long term downtrend - colored light green in the chart. And within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves, with subwave C still developing - colored magenta in the chart. Within this subwave there are A and B waves of still smaller degree. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 130.51-128.45.
Resistances:
- 129.24 = .382 retracement
- 129.48 = .50 ret
- 129.72 = .618 ret
If the price keeps moving down and breaks below 128.45 the supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 139.93-130.26-135.11, 135.11-129.74-132.30, 132.30-128.90-130.51.
Supports:
- 128.41 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 127.11 = objective point (OP)
- 126.93 = OP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...4-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com