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GBP/USD Continuing Upward Trend January 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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GBP/USD
From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue moving north at least up to the 1.5850 resistance level. The stop loss order may be placed slightly under the last low and 200-day moving average around 1.5330 United States dollars for one British pound. We will note here the impressive positive deviation on the MACD indicator, supporting the bullish prediction for the pair.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011
_____WEEKLY______
Weekly - R3 = 1.6041
Weekly - R2 = 1.5852
Weekly - R1 = 1.5721
Weekly Pivot = 1.5532
Weekly - S1 = 1.5401
Weekly - S2 = 1.5212
Weekly - S3 = 1.5081
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_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
Monthly - S3 = 1.4753
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Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 03, 2011
Asia's stock markets opened the New Year with index rises this morning, this due to optimism regarding the world economic recovery in 2011, and the moderation of political activity in China. As such, Hong Kong was up by 1.4%, Seoul added 0.7%, Singapore climbed by 1.2% and Taiwan climbed 0.5%. In Japan, Australia, China and Thailand the stock markets are closed today for the holidays.
In the global macroeconomic sphere, on Saturday it has been reported that the Chinese procurement managers' index had descended for the first time in five months, suggesting that government's efforts to cool off the economy are beginning to bear fruit. The index had descended to a level of 53.9 points in December, as compared to 55.2 points in November.
This week investors and economists are expected to be concerned about the U.S. labor market, with the ADP employment report tracking the number of jobs in the private non-agricultural sector, expected to be published on Wednesday. It is also expected to point an improvement in the labor market. On Friday the Fed's monthly employment report is scheduled to be published, expected to point to a slight decline in U.S. unemployment to a level of 9.7% and a growth of 140 thousand jobs. Great attention will also be paid to the Federal Reserve Chairman's Senate testimony on Friday, which may discuss the possibility of extending quantitative easing into the coming year as well.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 3, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110103/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3397 – the target level. If this level is passed the next target will be the resistance level at 1.3600. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3165), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are diverging and directed up. The MACD is ascending, thus pointing to the current upside movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3397; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3600. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3248. In case the MACD reverses down long positions should be cut manually.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The GBP/USD wave analysis for January 3, 2011
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High volatility during the last trading day of the year allowed the GBP/USD pair to advance by more than two figures. Current situation implies that the December 28 low (1.5345) is completing the downward section having developed since December 14. This, in its turn, might denote formation of the C wave of November-December downward correction. If so, we can suppose that the pound will advance further in the direction of the 1.5800-1.5820 levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
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USD/CAD technical analysis for January 4, 2011
Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9820, 0.9750
Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380
On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD has dropped to 0.9891. At the moment the viewpoint to the pair is bearish.
As mentioned before, low trading volume caused exaggerated fluctuations of this currency pair last week. Therefore the bears have easily broken the 0.9980 support level. The breakout of this level allowed this pair to reach 0.9820 with 0.9750 as the next target.
Nevertheless, if a reversal takes place and the USD/CAD breaks the 1.0212 resistance level, this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0290. Further breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback from 1.0680 and that further advance should be expected.
In the midterm the breakout of the support level at 0.9930 indicated continuing midterm downtrend from 1.3063 (2009 high) with 0.9700 as a target. However, this downside movement is probably a correction, and strong support level is located near 0.9056-0.9700.
Thus, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0851 will confirm that the downtrend from 1.3063 is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the resistance level at 1.1126 with 1.1866 as the next target.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...icture%206.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CHF candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
The USD/CHF currency pair is continuing to reach all-time lows. The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish. The breakout of the support level 0.9350 targeted the USD/CHF pair to 0.9300 with 0.9250 as the next target.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9560 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9669.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
The AUD/USD is rolling back after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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GBP/USD candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.5650 to rebound further. The viewpoint on the pair is still bearish.
Earlier the pair dropped sharply after it failed to break the resistance level of 1.5900. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD manages to close above the 1.5650 level, it will be recommended to close short positions since this will lead to advance to 1.5900.
As mentioned before, on a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here. Further the bears started increasing their influence.
A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 4, 2011
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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Fundamental Analysis, January 04, 2011
Asia's stock markets have climbed this morning to a high of two and a half years based on the positive trend recorded yesterday at Wall Street. As such, Japan's Nikkei was up by 1.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed about 0.5%, the Shanghai stock exchange strengthened by about 1.3%, whereas the South Korean KRX climbed by 0.4%.
In the American macroeconomic sphere, ISM had reported yesterday that activity in the United States manufacturing sector had increased this December for the 17th month running, expanding at the highest rate in the last 7 month, climbing in December to a level of 57 points, as compared to 56.6 points in the previous month. This climb was predicted by economists. Construction expenditures in the United States grew for the third month running, this according to macroeconomic data published today in the United States.
The American Department of Commerce reported yesterday that construction expenditures in the United States rose in November by about 0.4%, a third monthly rise in a row. This rise was sharper than the 0.2% rise predicted by economists.
The European stock markets took 2011 by storm, recording an extremely hard daily rise due to sharper than expected rise in activity in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. By the daily close, the Frankfurt exchange closed at a 1.1% rise, Paris leaped up by 2.5%, Milano climbed 1.3%, while no trade took place in London yesterday due to continued New Year's holidays.
As we said, the Market Economics Research Company announced yesterday that the index of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone rose in December to a level of 57.1 points, as compared to 55.3 in the previous months, beating preliminary estimates that only a 56.8 climb would occur.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 4, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110104/eurusd%204.gif
Overview:
Euro has been demonstrating upwards movement. The buy signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph and the price managed to fixate above the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, the first target for the upside movement is 1.3502 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3639. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3255), if the price manages to fixate below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, thus pointing to the correction against the current upside movement. The MACD is ascending, indicating the current correction movement.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3502; in case this level is passed the target will be 1.3639. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3255. Long positions should be opened only in case the MACD reverses up.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
The chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Upwards Breach is Expected Janaury 03, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
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USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair is beginning to form a bottom after failing to breach the strong support level around 0.9900. The trend line that accompanied the wave of downwards movements since it began about two weeks ago, will form a buy trigger for us should it be breached from below.
An upwards breach through the trend line is expected to pave the way back to a balance level of 1.0000, and later on even to a resistance level around 1.0070. The stop loss movement can be placed in a relative proximity, slightly under the last local low around 0.9860.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 03 to January 07, 2011
_____WEEKLY_______
Weekly - R3 = 1.3855
Weekly - R2 = 1.3639
Weekly - R1 = 1.3502
Weekly Pivot = 1.3286
Weekly - S1 = 1.3149
Weekly - S2 = 1.2933
Weekly - S3 = 1.2796
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_____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2530
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Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)
This week the EUR/GBP currency pair has been trading on the downside after it could not break the support level at 0.8650. As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rollback took place.
It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.
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Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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AUD/USD candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The AUD/USD is rolling back further after reaching a new all-time high. Nevertheless, the viewpoint on this pair is still bullish due to the continuing uptrend.
Earlier on a daily chart the AUD/USD has formed the combination of candlesticks Bullish Engulfing which indicates the uprising movement, confirmed further.
This combination of candlesticks developed near the support level of 0.9537, where the bulls started to increase their influence and a rebound after a downside movement took place. This combination of candlesticks provided a good opportunity to open long positions.
A breakthrough of the resistance level of 0.9710 means that this point of view is correct.
However, in case the reversal takes place and the AUD/USD breaks through the support level of 0.9825, then long positions should be closed, as it will lead to the further decline to 0.9537.
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com
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USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 5, 2011
The USD/JPY pair has failed to break the Fibonacci correction level at 38.2 to rebound further.
Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. The USD/JPY is expected to move upwards to the resistance level 82.85, where 50.0 Fibonacci correction level is located.
However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...re%2010(1).png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
More analysis - at instaforex.com