-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 1, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (from 1.0315) of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0418. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418, 1.0418-1.0685-1.0621, 1.0621-1.0720-1.0651, 1.0651-1.0719-1.0668.
Resistances:
- 1.0730 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0736 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0750 = OP
- 1.0771 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0778 = XOP
- 1.0786 = COP
- 1.0811 = XOP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0728.
Supports:
- 1.0610 = .382 retracement
- 1.0573 = .50 ret
- 1.0536 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...1-01-au-en.gifOverbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or gets into the oversold area (25-35 pips below the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 1, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.26-125.33.
Supports:
- 123.91 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.04 = OP
- 122.65 = COP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 126.55-124.16.
Resistances:
- 125.41 = .50 ret
- 125.68 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...1-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Oil Review for 31 August 2011
After the U.S Government announced last week a sharp increase in oil reserves, futures on crude oil closed on Wednesday with a slight decline. The decline was quite modest as the data also showed a decrease in petroleum reserves.
At the close of NYMEX trading, WTI oil futures decreased 9 cents (0.1%) to $88.81 per barrel. At the close of ICE trading, Brent oil futures increased 62 cents (0.5%) to $114.64 per barrel.
According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), petroleum reserves jumped 5.3 mln barrels last week. Refining capacity usage decreased 1.1 ppt. Petroleum reserves lost 2.8 mln barrels which supported petroleum prices and prevented them from a decrease. DOE indicator of petroleum demand advanced 2.4%. According to the data, distillates reserves went up 400 000 barrels including fuel oil and diesel oil.
Analytics expected 200 000 barrels growth of oil reserves, one million barrels decrease of petroleum reserves, and 700 000 barrels rise of distillates reserves.
Normally, a significant growth of oil reserves influences oil prices, but this time its influence was moderated by a slump of petroleum reserves and an increase of petroleum demand.
Market actors monitor weekly data releases on DOE reserves to follow oil supply and demand in the U.S., the largest oil consumer worldwide. The U.S. oil demand and its economic climate are increasing their influence on oil market against the escalating concerns of possible recovery slowdown.
However, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may break oil extraction and encourage increase of prices. According to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance that a “tropical wave” in the Caribbean may develop into a hurricane within 48 hours.
Wednesday’s moderate decrease shows that NYMEX quotes on oil futures dropped 7.2% in August. Futures stay below their maximum level of approximately $115 per barrel reached in May.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110901/Picture_1.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
EUR/CHF candlestick analysis for September 1, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the EUR/CHF currency pair is rolling back after it could not test the resistance level 1.2000. Nevertheless, the viewpoint at the pair remains bullish as the uptrend remains.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the pair formed a Long Shadows candlestick giving a bullish signal.
This candlestick shows that the pair was demonstrating downside movement during several months after an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance level 1.3238. However it reversed near 1.0070, which means that the bears did not manage to solidify here and further the bulls started to dominate.
Break of the 1.0800 level and the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 proves this point of view. This resulted in an upside movement to the resistance level 1.1400 where the Fibonacci level 38.2 is also located. Its break targeted the pair to 1.2000.
Upside movement is supported by the RSI divergence.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110901/Picture_5.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis, September 01, 2011
The meeting yesterday was on the stock rises on both sides of the Atlantic, due to the expectation generated after the publication of its Proceedings, Federal Reserve that the economy will introduce new measures of monetary stimulus (QE3). In Europe, increases were more pronounced due to a fact that can ease tensions Peripheral Merkel in principle has gotten the enough support to increase the skills and power of the European rescue fund (EFSF), measures to be voted on in the German parliament on 29 September.
The news from Europe still dominate the currency market, given the persistence of the rumors about the health of financial institutions, sovereign debt and potential measures to create stability. Political officials of the European Union are pursuing a public debate about the dilemmas that exist, but fail to reach agreement.
Today the market is looking forward to the publication of official employment data difficult to read: If you could either feed disappoint even the expectation of a QE3, helping the market, or bring back the market in its downward course, if the published data is positive, the same scenario but in reverse. That is why there is additional stress not only for the data but also regarding its interpretation.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
CAD/JPY Buy Above 79.00, September 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...pyseptem01.gif
CAD/JPY
The sharp decline in the price of Canadian dollar-yen pair Japanese stopped exactly on the crucial support level of 77.50, representing a potential signal of a base floor of a new sequence that can reach upward climb to the top price levels of around 83 Japanese yen and higher still.
To convince flatly that the intentions of the pair will remain positive in the period close, for it has to overcome the resistance level of 79.00 and testing. On the contrary, it is important to note the possibility of a new wave downward based on the pattern of stagnation that developed during the last month. The bottom of the pattern is around the 77.00 price levels, so that a drop to this level can act as a trigger for a new purchase at a low price and attractive.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/USD Bullish Above 1.6190 , September 01, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...sdseptem01.gif
GBP/USD
During yesterday the pound lost ground, because the Net Lending to Individuals turned out to be negative. Anyway the fact of keeping intact the U.S. interest rate for two years and comments about a third incentive plan impede the dollar will rise.
In my view, the pound-dollar pair is also convenient to purchase their current price levels, but should pay attention to the level of proof of $ 1.6020. This level has to be overcome to allow the pair to continue to rise. Our price target over the medium term is located around the significant resistance level of 1.6560, dollars per pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/USD wave analysis for September 1, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110901/GBP_h4.gif
As expected earlier, during yesterday’s trading the GBP/USD resumed downside movement within the 5th wave of the whole trend downside section initiated August 19. At the same time the inner wave structure of this 5th wave has become quite complicated. In the meantime given the current MACD divergence we have all reasons to suppose that the current downside movement is about to be finished and the price might move to the 1.6400 after the 62 figure level is tested.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 2, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (from 1.0315) of medium term uptrend - colored royal blue in the chart. Within wave C there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0418. And the latter has four subwaves (colored red in the chart), with wave 4 still developing from 1.0771. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9928-1.0600-1.0315, 1.0315-1.0533-1.0418, 1.0418-1.0685-1.0621.
Resistances:
- 1.0771 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0786 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0888 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0771.
Supports:
- 1.0636 = .382 retracement
- 1.0595 = .50 ret
- 1.0553 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...2-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or gets into the oversold area (current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 2, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 126.55. And the latter also has its A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.33.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.26-125.33.
Supports:
- 123.91 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.04 = OP
- 122.65 = COP
- 121.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 126.55-124.11.
Resistances:
- 125.04 = .382 retracement
- 125.33 = .50 ret
- 125.62 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...2-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for September 2, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair is rolling back slightly after an unsuccessful attempt to break the upper limit of the trading range 0.8891-0.8642. Nevertheless in case the pair closes above 0.8891 short positions should be closed as it will target the pair to 0.9000.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break caused downside movement to 0.8720. Fixation below 0.8720 enabled the pair to reach 0.8600.
As mentioned before, in case the pair closes above the resistance level 0.8891 short positions should be closed as this break will target the pair to 0.9000.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110902/Picture_4.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/USD wave analysis for September 2, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110902/GBP_h4.gif
Yesterday’s positive sentiment of the currency markets towards the dollar enabled the GBP/USD pair to decline further and reach the 1.6130 level later in the day, and the 5th wave in the 5th became prolonged. In the meantime given the inner wave dimension of the whole downside section of the trend initiated August 19, the upside correction movement might begin either from the high reached yesterday or from the levels near the 60 figure.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/JPY Bullish Outlook ,September 02, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...yptember02.gif
EUR/JPY
The pair euro-yen Japanese usually reflects the market conditions that directly affect it. The technical picture suggests that the pair is on the threshold of very important support level. From a technical perspective, accumulating signs of a possible change in direction of movement of the pair. A new sequence could lead to bullish euro-yen Japanese to previous peak levels around 113.50 or even more up to 117.00 yen per euro.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD Technical Overview Based on the Regression Channels System for September 2, 2011
4-hour Timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110902/eurusd_41.gif
Technical Data:
Head channel of linear regression: direction – side
Low channel of linear regression: direction – up
Moving average (20; smoothed): direction – down
CCI: -138.8983.
Commentary:
On September 2, the euro is trading below the low channel, but the both channels are not moving downward. Therefore, speculating on a fall is not recommended. A sideward movement of the head channel signalizes an upward reversal of a global downward trend. A downward movement of the low channel means a trend’s short-term upward movement. Currently, the price is trading below the moving and the Murray level of 5/8. Therefore, the price target is at the Murray level of 4/8 at 1.4160. In case the price reaches the target, its next target will be at the level of 3/8 at 1.4038. Please also note that the Heiken-Ashi indicator colored bars blue signifying a local downward movement. As the moving average is moving downward with the price trading below it, a downward movement is the most promising. Wait until one channel has turned downward and start trading. The CCI indicator is approximately at the -100 level indicating a slight overbought.
The Closest Support Levels:
S1 – 1.4160
S2 – 1.4038
S3 – 1.3916
The Closest Resistance Levels:
R1 – 1.4282
R2 – 1.4404
R3 – 1.4526
Trading Recommendations:
EUR/USD Forex market analysis reveals renewal of a downward movement. The current price target is the Murray level of 4/8 at 1.4160. However, speculating on a fall is not recommended. Speculate on a rise only after the price has fixed above the moving.
Besides technical data, please always take into account fundamental data and its release date.
The Chart Annotation:
Head channel of the linear regression – unidirectional blue lines.
Low channel of the linear regression – unidirectional purple lines.
CCI – a blue line in the indicator’s window.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – a blue line in the price chart.
Murray levels – multicolored horizontal lines.
Heiken-Ashi indicator – indicator coloring bars blue of purple.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 5, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within corrective subwave 4 (colored yellow in the chart) from 1.0577 that is part of wave B of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0418-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0686-1.0735.
Supports:
- 1.0553-43 = confluence area of .618 and .50 retracements
- 1.0512 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0489 = .618 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0577.
Resistances:
- 1.0651 = .382 ret
- 1.0674 = .50 ret
- 1.0697 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 5, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing potential impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 124.76.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.11-124.76.
Supports:
- 123.71 = objective point (OP)
- 123.25 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 122.65 = COP
- 122.32 = OP
- 121.95 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 126.55 - this wave is not developed so no resistances are available so far.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09 / September, 2011
_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6723
Weekly - R2 = 1.6588
Weekly - R1 = 1.6403
Weekly Pivot = 1.6268
Weekly - S1 = 1.6083
Weekly - S2 = 1.5948
Weekly - S3 = 1.5763
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.7046
Monthly - R2 = 1.6832
Monthly - R1 = 1.6539
Monthly Pivot = 1.6325
Monthly - S1 = 1.6032
Monthly - S2 = 1.5819
Monthly - S3 = 1.5525
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09/ September, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0965
Weekly - R2 = 1.0867
Weekly - R1 = 1.0757
Weekly Pivot = 1.0659
Weekly - S1 = 1.0549
Weekly - S2 = 1.0451
Weekly - S3 = 1.0341
_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.2341
Monthly - R2 = 1.1703
Monthly - R1 = 1.1207
Monthly Pivot = 1.0566
Monthly - S1 = 1.0067
Monthly - S2 = 0.9429
Monthly - S3 = 0.8930
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 05 - 09/ September, 2011
____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.4806
Weekly - R2 = 1.4677
Weekly - R1 = 1.4441
Weekly Pivot = 1.4312
Weekly - S1 = 1.4076
Weekly - S2 = 1.3947
Weekly - S3 = 1.3711
____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.5091
Monthly - R2 = 1.4820
Monthly - R1 = 1.4597
Monthly Pivot = 1.4323
Monthly - S1 = 1.4103
Monthly - S2 = 1.3832
Monthly - S3 = 1.3609
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For September 05-09, 2011
_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 78,63
Weekly - R2 = 78,16
Weekly - R1 = 77,40
Weekly Pivot = 76,93
Weekly - S1 = 76,17
Weekly - S2 = 75,70
Weekly - S3 = 74,94
_____MONTHLY___
Monthly - R3 = 83,57
Monthly - R2 = 81,90
Monthly - R1 = 79,28
Monthly Pivot = 77,61
Monthly - S1 = 74,99
Monthly - S2 = 73,32
Monthly - S3 = 70.70
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for September 5, 2011
4-hour Timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110905/eurusd_4.gif
General review:
According to the Forex market analysis for September 5, a sell signal is being carried out, and the price is steadily moving downwards. Therefore, short positions are recommended. A Chinkou Span being below a price chart, with the price below the Ichimoku cloud, confirms the strong sell signal. The current target level is the second support level at 1.4075. The downward movement continues as long as the price is below a Kijun-Sen line at 1.4335. In case the price is fixed above the line, the current signal weakens and calls for closing short positions. Currently, the Chinkou Span is below the price chart which supports the current sell signal and reflects bearish intentions of traders. A Bollinger Bands reveals a continuation of the downward movement, and the bands are extending and moving downwards. Therefore, speculating for a fall is more profitable. Falling MACD reflects the current downwards movement, and a filter allows trading for a fall. In case MACD turns upward, it signifies the beginning of a correction and calls for closing short positions.
Trading recommendations:
Given the current euro trading situation, speculation on a fall is recommended, with a target of -1.4075. In case the price breaks this level, the next target is 1.3947. It is recommended to put a stop-loss above 1.4335 and lower it following a decrease of the Kijun-Sen line. In case MACD turns upward, manual close of short positions is recommended.
Besides the technical review please take into account fundamental data and the date of its release.
Annotation to the Chart:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – a red line
Kijun-Sen – a blue line
Senkou Span � – a light-brown dashed line
Senkou Span B – a light-purple dashed line
Chinkou Span – a green line
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a bars chart with white bars in the indicator’s window
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 6, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave 5 (colored orange red in the chart) from 1.0590 that is part of wave A of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0735-1.0518-1.0590.
Supports:
- 1.0489 = .618 retracement
- 1.0456-49 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 ret
- 1.0373 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0350 = .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0504.
Resistances:
- 1.0606 = .382 ret
- 1.0638 = .50 ret
- 1.0669 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 6, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 124.76.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-124.11-124.76, 124.76-123.50-123.99
Supports:
- 123.25-21 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 122.73-65 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and COP
- 122.32 = OP
- 121.95 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 124.76 - this wave is not developed so no resistances are available so far.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (15-20 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-45 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Awaiting Barack Obama's Address: Review for September 6, 2011 (EUR/USD)
Facing reelections in a little more than a year, Barack Obama is expected to call for substantial investments in the U.S. faltering infrastructure. He may also call for another extension of benefits and allowances to stimulate consumer spending. However, the Republicans are likely to oppose Obama’s proposals being greatly concerned about public expenditures. The White House lowered its economic forecast on Thursday and claimed that unemployment level would probably average 9% until 2012.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...ss_Rate(1).jpg
Head of the Fed Ben Bernanke announced a week ago that the Fed could not mitigate U.S. problems including unemployment level and weak real estate. In other words, he sent a signal to Obama and the Congress to take responsibility for strengthening the economy. In case they assume that responsibility, the Fed will retain its right to intervene if the U.S economy seems in danger because of the Government’s non-feasance. Several chiefs of the central bank announced their readiness to consider a possibility of a third round of quantitative easing at the last Fed session on August, 9.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110906/US_GDP.jpg
According to a report released on Friday, 42.9% of Americans, which is 6.0 mln people, had been unemployed for more than 6 months as for August. The longer they are unemployed, the more difficult it is for them to find a job.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110906/NFP_US(1).jpg
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis, September 06, 2011
Concerns about the euro-zone debt was again the main focus of investors in yesterday's session, reeling the euro, and bringing down markets. The German DAX stock was one of the hardest hit, closing the day at -5.3%. The CAC 40 in France was a -4.7% and even the UK's FTSE 100 closed the session at -3.6%. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, fresh from their fifth loss in direct local elections in Germany, says that Greece will not receive financial aid this month if the conditions of its rescue package, a statement made to crystallize the fears of many operators and further spurred both the sale of EUR / USD as sovereign bonds.
Today we have the reference of the U.S. stock market, although the focus will remain focused on Europe. Finance ministers from Germany, Finland and the Netherlands will meet in Brussels to discuss the collateral required by the Helsinki exchange for their participation in the rescue of Greece. Hellenic And the country will face a € 1.000m issue in letters to 6 months, but do not expect problems because it is probably placed in advance with the backing of the ECB in the secondary market.
In the macro front, In the U.S., the likely decline in the ISM services will help to push the Fed to implement new incentive programs (QE3). Ta is the absence of catalysts will continue to risk aversion today very much in the markets, we expect another round of setbacks
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/JPY wave analysis for September 6, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110906/JPY_h4.gif
Yesterday the USD/JPY moved further within the limits of a narrow horizontal corridor. At the same time, as we have already mentioned, we can suppose that the price is forming the c wave in the c of a horizontal triangle. It is quite difficult to predict the length of this c wave, however its target levels might be located near 77.50 or 77.65.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/USD Bullish Above 1.6030 , September 06, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember06.gif
GBP/USD
The pair-United States Dollar pound sterling. Since the recent peak levels around 1.6600, which ran two weeks ago, the pair managed to lose 450 points of its value. From a technical perspective, it is estimated that if drilling support 1.6030, apparently continue to decline. However, if the pair manages to stay above the level of proof seems to begin a new upward movement, and may reach peak levels of 1.6720 earlier and higher still. The first price target is is in near the resistance around the 1.6403.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook September 06 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember06.gif
GBP/JPY
Yesterday morning, the British pound-Japanese yen pair showed signs of a potential minimum point recorded after they slumped to levels of 123.45, then rebounded to close above the important support level of 123.57. The performance of pair decidedly hints that it is possible that it is a soil that represents a basis for a new upward sequence.
Technically, the pair is in the very low price levels and has a huge upside potential. It is estimated that the pair may stumble upon the significant level of testing around 127.50 Japanese yen per pound.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 7, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C (colored red in the chart) from 1.0624 that is part of wave A of larger degree (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0771. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0315-1.0771, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0502-1.0624.
Supports:
- 1.0489 = .618 retracement, reached already (!)
- 1.0458-49 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 ret
- 1.0355-50 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .50 ret
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0771-1.0486.
Resistances:
- 1.0629 = .50 ret
- 1.0662 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...7-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 7, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.05.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.36-125.05, 125.05-123.04-123.93.
Supports:
- 123.08 = contracted objective point (COP), already hit (!)
- 122.69-65 = confluence area of two COP's
- 121.95-92-86 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two objective points (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.05-123.04.
Resistances:
- 124.05 = .50 ret
- 124.28 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...7-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis 07 September 2011
ECB President Trichet called on euro zone states immediately pass the strengthening of the rescue fund to fight the debt crisis. Also stressed that the euro area needs a series of economic reforms and structural improve productivity, increase growth and boost employment.
What has been happening lately is that downward movement of euro sovereign rebalancing flows appear, which eventually mitigate the fall of the single currency, the euro is needed is a catalyst strong enough to get him out of his range with the dollar, leading the euro to fall against most currencies.
The Swiss franc weakened against the dollar and euro after the Swiss Central Bank (BNS) declared that it would buy unlimited amounts of currency in the country to curb the strength of the currency and lower its value to a target of 1.20 francs against the euro. The EURCHF reached a price of 1.21 and this also caused the rise of the dollar against the franc and the USDCHF was at 0.8579 francs.
On the other hand the price of gold reaching back to 1920 dollars an ounce, rising expectations that the U.S. re-launch a QE and the aforementioned European debt fears. It is quite clear that any event that generates some fear in financial markets by strengthening the gold finish, at least for the remainder of the year.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD Bullish Outlook September, 07 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...urin_fxccc.gif
EUR/USD
On the short graph 4 hours for the euro – United States dollar pair we can see that the wave of price drops was stopped exactly at the support level of 1.3975. It is still to early to state with any degree of certainty if the euro – dollar pair has established strong enough foundation in order to change its direction and begin, once again, to move upwards towards its previous record levels in the region of 1.4525. In the short term, there is a very good chance for a move that can be expected to reach the resistance level of, at least, 1.4360 euro to the dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
CAD/JPY Bullish Outlook for 07/september/2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110907/cadjpy.gif
CAD/JPY
Since the start of casualties in the financial markets about four months ago, the loonie-yen pair Japanese lost about 1300 points! braking was exactly the last support level of 76.90. The estimation about the strength of the support level was surpassed for the pair failed to close below this important support of 77.00. This is indicative of a high potential for reversal and go to hikes. The price target over the medium term is around the 83.60 level, Japanese yen per Canadian dollar.
Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/JPY Wave Analysis for September 7, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110907/JPY_h4.gif
Yesterday the market was highly volatile which provoked rather a dynamic expected though USD/JPY growth to 77.70. In spite of this, the pair still moves within a horizontal range of a current correction. However, yesterday’s maximum probably marked the end of C, B and C waves of a horizontal triangle. If this is the case, the price will recommence a downward movement to a 76.50 level forming a future D wave of the triangle.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD wave analysis for September 7, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110907/EUR_h4.gif
As expected, another attempt of the EUR/USD to pass the 1.4050 level resulted in a rebound of the rate to the upside. At the same time in force majeure conditions such 200 point move was quite dynamic and ended near 1.4245. Therefore, we might suppose that the price finished to form the estimated a wave of the current downside correction. In the meantime, further resumption of the euro decline has probably indicated the beginning of developing b wave of the current correction.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 8, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 126.55. Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 125.05.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.36-125.05, 125.05-123.04-123.93, 123.93-123.17-123.64.
Supports:
- 122.88 = objective point (OP)
- 122.69-65 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 122.41 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 121.95-92-86 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and two objective points (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 125.05-123.04.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...8-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis 08/September/ 20011
In the United States Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech about the economy and in the evening, President Obama will act in relation to the unemployment situation. The U.S. stock market closed the day higher on Wednesday, but one day of profit does not mean that the performance of the market has turned positive.
The German court said yesterday it was OK for the government to allow financial assistance in connection with sovereign debt crises. However, the court added that all future aid packages must be approved by the German parliament. On the other hand, can still be heard rumors regarding the dilemma faced by Greece for its economic prospects and its ability to meet established goals.
For the day today, it is expected that global investors keep close Trichet signals, this speech has already been given, Bernanke and Obama. However, it is likely that after the statements operators continue to have several questions unanswered. Nevertheless, it should be noted that officials will do their best to give a positive spin on the week.
Traders are on alert for any change in tone, in particular any change toward a more conciliatory.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/JPY wave analysis for September 8, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110908/JPY_h4.gif
In general, as expected, yesterday the USD/JPY started to decline from the 77.72 level reached on Tuesday, thus probably forming a wave structure in the contents of abc waves within the future d wave. If so, the currency pair might continue declining to the lower limit of the horizontal corridor that coincides with the 76.50 at the moment.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/USD Strong Support 1.5912, September 08 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...dseptem(1).gif
GBP/USD
The pair, British pound - U.S. dollar, came down in price, directly to the strong support 1.5912. Since the recent peak levels around 1.6600, which ran two weeks ago, the pair managed to lose 680 points of its value. From a technical perspective, it is estimated that if drilling weekly support 1.5880, apparently continue to decline.
However, if the pair manages to stay above the level of proof seems to begin a new upward movement, and may reach peak levels of 1.6600 earlier and higher still. The first price target is in the vicinity of the resistance around the 1.6418.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
The capital acumen of the access in metal prices on Monday was the advice about one of the above chestnut mining companies in Chili Dona Ines de Collahuasi suspending administration indefinitely. On Monday in the Company’s anchorage an blow entailing 3 deaths took place.
-
USD/CHF wave analysis for September 9, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110909/CHF_h4.gif
With the beginning of yesterday’s trading the 1-day recess of the uptrend was over and the USD/CHF advanced further in favour of the US currency. At the same time, given the correlation between the 1st and the 3rd wave we might suppose that the first target for such growth will be located at the level slightly above the 88 or even 89 mark.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 9, 2011 AUD/USD is moving within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave there are also A and B subwaves (colored red in the chart) with subwave B still developing from 1.0668. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0486-1.0668-1.0570. Resistances: - 1.0682 = contracted objective point (COP) - 1.0752 = objective point (OP) - 1.0864 = expanded objective point (XOP) If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9928-1.0771, 1.0486-1.0668, and expansions off 1.0771-1.0486-1.0668. Supports: - 1.0556 = .618 ret - 1.0492 = COP - 1.0449 = .382 ret - 1.0383 = OP - 1.0350 = .50 ret http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...9-01-au-en.gif Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (25-40 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 9, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave С (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are four subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with subwave 4 still developing from 123.04.
The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 123.04-126.55, and expansions off 123.04-123.93-123.11, 123.11-124.36-123.60.
Resistances:
- 124.37-38 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .382 retracement
- 124.55 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 124.80-85 = confluence area of .50 ret and objective point (OP)
- 125.21 = .618 ret
- 125.44 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 125.62 = XOP
If the price continues the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36.
Supports:
- 122.65 = COP
- 122.19 = COP
- 121.95 = XOP
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...9-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (45-60 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
USD/CAD candlestick analysis for September 9, 2011
Support levels: 0.9742, 0.9635, 0.9568
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0209
In a 4-hour chart USD/CAD pulls back after a sharp increase. Previously, USD/CAD tested a support level at 0.9742 without success which probably forwarded the currency pair to a parity level. In case it breaks the parity level, the trend turns bullish.
As written before, a fresh upward movement is confirmed by a breakthrough of the downward channel’s upper level and a previously developed MACD /RSI divergence. Moreover, a breakthrough of resistance level at 0.9780-0.9800 signified a new mid-term bottom at 0.9406 and opened the way to 1.0000. In case the price breaks a 1.0000 level, the next upward target will be at 1.0209.
However, short-term signals indicate a downward. In particular, MACD reveals a downfall to its key level, while RSI falls from an overbought level at 70.0. In case the downward movement continues, a breakthrough of a major support level at 0.9400 will forward the price to fresh multi-year minimums. A downward movement to 0.9172, which is a 61.8 Fibonacci Projection level from 1.0670 to 0.9445, can also be expected.
In mid-term trend, a breakthrough of a support level at 0.9930 indicated further mid-term movement from 1.3063 (maximum of 2009) to a 0.9400 target level. However, the downward movement is likely to be a correction and has a strong support level at 0.9056–0.9700.
In case of a pullback, a breakthrough of a 1.0851 level will confirm a breakthrough of the downward trend from 1.3063. In this case USD/CAD is expected to move upward to a resistance level at 1.1126 with a further target at 1.1866.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110909/Picture_2.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/USD wave analysis for September 12, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110912/GBP_h4.gif
During Friday’s trading the GBP/USD pair managed to proceed with the downside movement and tested the 1.5850 level by the end of the day. At the same time the wave situation of the whole downtrend section initiated August 19 still looks as a 5-wave structure with a considerable prolongation in the 5th wave. If so, the 1.5757 level might be a possible target for this trend section.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
The GBP/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for September 12, 2011
4-hour timeframe
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110912/gbpusd_4.gif
Overview:
The pound rate is declining further, the sell signal is still being observed with the first target at 1.5754 not reached yet. The formed sell signal is strong and confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated below the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target is 1.5754 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 1.5627. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (1.5990), if the price fixates above this line it is recommended to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, which confirms the current sell signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show continuing downside movement, the lines are slightly diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending, which indicates current downside movement, therefore it is possible to trade down now, however the reverse of the MACD to the upside will be a signal to cut short positions.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to trade down with target at 1.5754 and further to 1.5627. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.5990 and stretched down as the Kijun-sen declines. It is recommended to cut short positions after the MACD reverses u.
In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.
Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis, September 13, 2011
Breaches of Greece increased opposition in Germany to new financial aid Merkel leaving more and more alone in its efforts to save Greece.
Thus, the markets begin to discount an orderly restructuring of Greece or even leaving the euro was more likely the former than the latter. The biggest losses recorded by the French CAC affected by the explosion of a nuclear plant and the fear that Moody's downgraded the rating to its 3 major banks (BNP, Credit Agricole and Soc Gen) on maintaining a negative outlook by high exposure to debt helena.
WAS also was carried away by the negative tone, but rumors of future purchases of Italian debt by China allowed a bullish close. In this context, the Bund increased in price (IRR 1.74%) and the euro recovered some lost ground on Friday to $ 1.368.
The markets are reacting with fear to a situation whose consequences are difficult to calibrate. There are two problems with bankruptcy in Greece: the impact on the European financial system and contagion to countries like Spain and Italy.
In the first case, the French banks seem to be the most affected, but do not forget the Germans. The fall of these values �‹�‹in the last few days speak for themselves. And in the contagion spreads are reflecting it. Today's auction of 5 years in Italy has reached historic highs of the bond return if the amount raised is approaching the maximum of the target.
What does the future hold?, Authorities in Greece seem committed to keeping the ship afloat, but there may come a time when the Greek people have to evaluate the actual cost of implementing austerity measures in order to maintain their membership in the euro area, and decide that you no longer worth it. Either that, or the increasingly discontented members of the main euro zone states may wonder what exactly they are getting in exchange for all the bailout money, and if they are investing more and more funds in the rescue, with little hope of recovering their investment. There seems to be an easy solution to the dilemma of Greece.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/USD wave analysis for September 13, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110913/GBP_h4.gif
Yesterday during the whole day the GBP/USD currency pair was trading in a narrow price range stuck between the levels 1.5800 and 1.5880. At the same time the price tried to finish the formation of the 5th wave in the estimated 5th of the whole downtrend section initiated August 19. Thus, we might suppose that after observing the target level at the 1.5757 level the spot rate will start a correction movement to the upside to the 61 and 62 figure levels.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/JPY Bullish Above 104.18 , September 19, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember13.gif
EUR/JPY
The euro – Japanese yen pair fell to new low levels, the like of which it hasn’t seen for some 11 years. reaching the price of 103.86.
Technically, it is important to pay attention to weekly support located at 104.18 and 102.40 only to the extent that weekend to negotiate the pair above this level will get confirmation of a real support and the possible beginning of a new wave bullish is expected to lead to the euro-yen in the long term to the price levels of 118.50
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD Technical Correction, September 13, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember13.gif
EUR/USD
The analysis of long-term (weekly chart) euro-dollar pair shows that the last upward wave euro-dollar trend began in June 2010 and is still ongoing as long as the pair is trading above the level of support Finally, about $ 1.3200 per euro.
Given that markets are now unlikely to exist not agitated when the dust settles to make ends meet. However, chances are you have a break until the weekly pivot level 1.3840, then resume their downward trend in short term. We expect that the price reaches down to the level of important test of 1.3222, in order to locate positions of long-term purchase and return to the upward trend with target price of 1.3830 and $ 1.4464 per euro in the long term.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 13, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-122.55.
Supports:
- 120.85 = objective point (OP)
- 120.64 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = OP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.36-121.27.
Resistances:
- 122.45 = .382 retracement
- 122.82 = .50 ret
- 123.18 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...3-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (20-25 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (50-60 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
EUR/GBP candlestick analysis for September 13, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP pair is rolling back slightly after a sharp decline to 0.8500. Nevertheless the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/GBP formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating downside movement confirmed further.
This candlestick combination was demonstrating strong upside movement after a fail to break 0.8720. However, it reversed near 0.9083. It means that the bears activated near 0.9100 and did not allow the bulls to fixate.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110913/Picture_11.png
Fixation below the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 denotes that this point of view is correct. This caused a decline to the support level 0.8860 where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is located as well. Its break caused downside movement to 0.8720. Fixation below 0.8720 enabled the pair to reach 0.8500.
As mentioned before, in case the pair closes above the resistance level 0.8891 short positions should be closed as this break will target the pair to 0.9000.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110913/Picture_12.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis, September 14, 2011
All European stock markets closed yesterday in the red, as investors are trying to escape the danger of contagion in the eurozone. The problem: the suspicion of imminent insolvency collective Greek. Even the French government is preparing for such insolvency, promising its big banks, which are flooded by Greek bonds - the liquidity necessary for ensuring its solvency.
There should be no such concern for the French banks since the summer of 200 passed the test of financial stress. But now reports suggest that most banks are severely undercapitalized French-up to 273.2 billion U.S. dollars - and this is beginning to worry investors.
Therefore, investors have fled from Europe to send money back to American and Asian markets. This has driven these markets, if only slightly, an average rise of 1% for both American DIJA (11 061) and for the Japanese Nikkei (8588). In Italy, government bonds are looking to raise their yields and the Italian government, which has a debt of 1.9 billion euros, is desperately seeking investors. According to reports, China could be your new buyer.
There is a scenario of global deceleration, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
EUR/USD wave analysis for September 14, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110914/EUR_h4.gif
Yesterday during the whole day the EUR/USD currency pair was trading between 1.3570 and 1.3730 levels. At the same time the formation of the expected 4th wave in the 3rd, or c, was continued. It should be mentioned that given the current inner wave structure of this 4th wave we might expect that its targets are located between 1.3750 and 1.3800. In the meantime, in case the euro finds enough power to continue the upside movement to higher price levels, the inner wave dimension of the 3rd wave, or c, will demand corresponding corrections.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
GBP/JPY Bullish Outlook September 14 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember14.gif
GBP/JPY
The British pound-yen pair Japanese did fall below the lowest point recorded in the fall of the beginning of August registering its new low in 120.67, just below its crucial support level of 120.82. If the pair-British pound Japanese yen, closing the week above the 120.80 level this will represent an important signal about the possible termination of the wave bearish.
It is estimated that the pair will not drop much as the other markets, can be invested so blunt. The positive deviation being carried in the MACD indicator estimation strengthens the low price of the pair can now serve as a good entry point from a long-term.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
CAD/JPY Buy Above 79.00, September 14, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember14.gif
CAD/JPY
The Canadian dollar-yen pair Japanese, accurately represents the state of the markets to fluctuate horizontally for more than a month, apparently in anticipation before the Fed announcement within a few days. The pair have time to build another wave downward toward the bottom of its range of stagnation around 75.90 and create a good opportunity to purchase. Still, if from here continue to rise and overcome the resistance of 79.00, this will represent a signal of low-end markets and the beginning of a new upward sequence.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 15, 2011
AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0668. Within this wave there are also A, B and С subwaves (colored red in the chart).
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0486-1.0665, 1.0665-1.0259-1.0379, 1.0379-1.0181-1.0299.
Supports:
- 1.0177 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0128 = COP
- 1.0101 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9979-73 = confluence area of expanded objective point (XOP) and OP
- 0.9927 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0665-1.0181.
Resistances:
- 1.0366 = .382 retracement
- 1.0423 = .50 ret
- 1.0480 = .618 ret
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-01-au-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (55-65 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 15, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-122.55, 122.55-120.68-121.40.
Supports:
- 120.24 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = objective point (OP)
- 119.53-46 = confluence area of two OP's
- 119.11 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 118.68 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- etc.
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 122.55 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...5-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
EUR/JPY candlestick analysis for September 15, 2011
In a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY currency pair is demonstrating consolidation after a sharp decline earlier. Nevertheless the viewpoint at the pair remains bearish as the downtrend remains.
Earlier in a 4-hour graph the EUR/JPY formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating a decline confirmed further. This candlestick was formed amid a rollback after a breakthrough of an upside channel, which means that the bears dominate on the market.
Besides, the currency pair broke the support level 110.10 which proves this point of view. Further another bearish combination Three Falling Methods was formed, which intensified the downside movement. At the same time a break of the Fibonacci projection level 61.8 targeted the pair to the support level 106.75. Break of 106.75 will probably lead to a decline to a psychologically relevant support level 100.00.
It is worth mentioning that stop loss should be placed slightly above the resistance level 107.85 as its break will cause upside movement to 110.10.
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110915/Picture_6.png
Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
Fundamental Analysis, September 15, 2011
There is a scenario of global slowdown, mainly influenced by the debt problems of Europe and the delicate economic situation facing the U.S., which now has a population growth of around 1% that fails to reduce the high levels of unemployment. In this environment, emerging countries, mainly Latin Americans, although they are entrenched in a situation with respect to external shocks, and are not immune to a possible worsening of the fiscal crisis of the G3 debt and feel the impact, especially relating to external trade (real channel) and capital flows (financial channel).
The reduction in global demand has added to concern policy makers in emerging countries, which suffer a contraction in aggregate demand in their economies. The exhibition of Latin American countries to the vagaries of the business cycle in developed economies, unlike other historical moments, is relatively low, Mexico is the exception because it depends heavily on the U.S. economic cycle. However, the main trading partners in the region, as is the case of China has a high exposure to economic problems that may arise in the advanced economies, and could spread to Latin America indirectly.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/JPY wave analysis for September 15, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110915/JPY_h4.gif
Yesterday the USD/JPY continued recent decline and tested the 76,60 level, thus complicating the wave situation within the almost horizontal triangle even more. In the meantime, at the moment it is quite difficult to predict the form that the c wave of this triangle can eventually get. We are waiting for the situation to become clearer.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 16, 2011 AUD/USD is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart) from 1.0668. Within this wave there are also four subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave 4 still developing from 1.0181. Tthe targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0665-1.0181 and expansions off 1.0181-1.0299-1.0186, 1.0186-1.0350-1.0298. Resistances: - 1.0366 = .382 retracement - 1.0377 = expanded objective point (XOP) - 1.0399 = contracted objective point (COP) - 1.0423 = .50 ret - 1.0462 = objective point (OP) If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0181 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available so far. http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-01-au-en.gif Overbought/Oversold Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices). Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for September 16, 2011
GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend from 127.31. Within this wave there are five subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with impulse subwave 5 still developing from 124.36.
The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 130.81-123.27-127.31, 127.31-124.47-126.55, 126.55-123.04-124.36, 124.36-121.27-120.61-122.22.
Supports:
- 119.90 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 119.77 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 124.63-120.61, and expansions off 120.61-122.22-120.97.
Resistances:
- 121.96 = COP
- 122.15 = .382 retracement
- 122.58-62 = confluence area of OP and .50 ret
- 123.09 = .618 ret
- 123.57 = expanded objective point (XOP)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...6-02-gj-en.gif
Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices).
Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
GBP/USD wave analysis for September 16, 2011
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110916/GBP_h4.gif
As expected, during yesterday trading the GBP/USD continued to form the inner wave structure of the upside correction. At the same time, the correction level 38.2% (1.6055) might act as a possible target for such correction. In the meantime, the whole correction structure would look much more convincing if the level 50.00% (1.6160) coinciding with the upper limit of the inclined corridor was hit.
Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
USD/NOK Bullish Outlook September 16 , 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember16.gif
USD/NOK
We can see on the daily chart, the intensity of the reaction torque in relation to sub-prime crisis a few years ago shows that the pair U.S. dollar, Norwegian krone is very sensitive to extreme crisis. The pair rebounded to high levels of 6.7000 at the peak of the crisis and is estimated to reach this step to rebuild this time. The clean break of the test level of 5.7000 represents a pair of signal the start of the upward movement, to our medium term objective.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
================================================== ===================================
================================================== ===================================
CRUDE OIL Technical Triangle September 16, 2011 (Daily Strategy)
http://instaforex.com/userfiles/2011...eptember16.gif
CRUDE OIL
The price of oil reflects the rising demand for energy when there is growth, but low in times of recession and lack of growth.
The movement upward slightly stagnating in oil prices in recent weeks, looks like a pressure cooker that was about to break into one of two possible directions. Technically, the break of the bottom line around 85.00 is a sign of continued downward movement with significant horizon downward to the $ 80 minimum. By contrast, the breakup of the top line will provide a clue to a new market recovery and a potential bullish on oil, back to the levels of resistance around $ 100 a barrel.
Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis - at instaforex.com
-
EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23/ September, 2011 ____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 1.4432 Weekly - R2 = 1.4184 Weekly - R1 = 1.3991 Weekly Pivot = 1.3743 Weekly - S1 = 1.3550 Weekly - S2 = 1.3302 Weekly - S3 = 1.3109 ____MONTHLY______ Monthly - R3 = 1.5091 Monthly - R2 = 1.4820 Monthly - R1 = 1.4597 Monthly Pivot = 1.4323 Monthly - S1 = 1.4103 Monthly - S2 = 1.3832 Monthly - S3 = 1.3609 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23/ September, 2011 _____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 1.0748 Weekly - R2 = 1.0597 Weekly - R1 = 1.0483 Weekly Pivot = 1.0332 Weekly - S1 = 1.0218 Weekly - S2 = 1.0067 Weekly - S3 = 0.9953 _____MONTHLY____ Monthly - R3 = 1.2341 Monthly - R2 = 1.1703 Monthly - R1 = 1.1207 Monthly Pivot = 1.0566 Monthly - S1 = 1.0067 Monthly - S2 = 0.9429 Monthly - S3 = 0.8930 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For 19 - 23 / September, 2011 _____WEEKLY____ Weekly - R3 = 1.6054 Weekly - R2 = 1.5967 Weekly - R1 = 1.5879 Weekly Pivot = 1.5792 Weekly - S1 = 1.5704 Weekly - S2 = 1.5617 Weekly - S3 = 1.5529 _____MONTHLY____ Monthly - R3 = 1.7046 Monthly - R2 = 1.6832 Monthly - R1 = 1.6539 Monthly Pivot = 1.6325 Monthly - S1 = 1.6032 Monthly - S2 = 1.5819 Monthly - S3 = 1.5525 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== USD/JPY. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For September/ 19 - 23, 2011 _____WEEKLY_____ Weekly - R3 = 78,42 Weekly - R2 = 78,00 Weekly - R1 = 77,40 Weekly Pivot = 76,97 Weekly - S1 = 76,36 Weekly - S2 = 75,94 Weekly - S3 = 75,33 _____MONTHLY___ Monthly - R3 = 83,57 Monthly - R2 = 81,90 Monthly - R1 = 79,28 Monthly Pivot = 77,61 Monthly - S1 = 74,99 Monthly - S2 = 73,32 Monthly - S3 = 70.70 Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com ================================================== =================================== ================================================== =================================== GBP/USD wave analysis. Week review http://instaforex.com/userfiles/20110919/GBP_d.gif During last week trading the GBP/USD currency pair nearly passed the 57 figure level. After this it started to trade in the range trying to form the beginning of an upside correction. At the same time, given the nearness of the lower line of the old upside corridor we might suppose that the price will try to return into its limits. In this case there is a possibility that within such future upside correction structure the rate might reach 1.6055 – 1.6160. Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011 More analysis - at instaforex.com