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Analysis of USDX for March 07, 2014
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The ADP report out of the US delivered a drastic blow to bullish expectations for a positive NFP report in February. December and January showed the US labor market which is not nearly as strong as many have anticipated. Economists expect that 150,000 jobs were added last month, up from only 113,000 jobs added in January. The US economy appears to be much weaker than expected and yesterday's ADP report suggests that today's NFP report will print the third consecutive disappointment. If the same thing happens, the US Federal Reserve may have to adjust its tapering due to economic weakness in the US. It would send conflicting signals to forex traders, and USD is likely to violent swing with more downward, sell off sharply with heavy volume. Technical view- The US dollar is trading below the moving average's and hammered towards the October 2013 low at $79. The US dollar made a double top at the end of January 2014, and kept on correcting itself. It was unable to move above the 50SMA. In the H4 and hourly charts, RSI is under an oversold condition, expecting a pullback with the previous support at 79.0. A break below the 79.0 mark will push it up to 78.6, 77.0, and 75.75.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 10, 2014
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The pair is reaching the major resistance zone 0.9152-0.9166. On Friday's trading session the price broke the resistance level 0.9080 and made high at 0.9133. In the Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 0.9058, coming back and trading below the previous resistance level 0.9080. Currently the pair looks attractive for buying only if it trades above this level for the targets 0.9122, 0.9166, 0.92 and 0.9256. On the downside 0.8972 and 0.8923 is the strong support. Break below 0.8923 looks weak and could fall up to 0.8730, 0.8693 and 0.8659.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 12, 2014
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The EUR/USD pair stays above the 21EMA level in 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.3477. The uptrend could be expected to continue after a minor consolidation, and the next target would be at 1.4000 area. Initial support is at 1.3825, and the key support is at the trend line, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of theuptrend. In the H4 chart, oscillators are giving a sell indication. We could expect the price to fall before it moves further. If the price breaks below the level 1.38509, it will fall up to 1.3834 1.38232 and 1.3799. More downside only below 1.3799 towards 1.3718.
Recommendations- Sell below 1.38509 targets1.3834, 1.3823, 1.3799 and 1.3718
Buy above 1.3877 targets 1.3898, 1.3915 and 1.40(above 1.3910 only further up move).
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Mach 13, 2014
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EUR/USD remains in uptrend from 1.3477, the fall from 1.3915 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Key support is at the upward trend line in 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and the next target would be in the 1.4000 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of the uptrend. In the daily chart, the pair was facing stiff resistance at the level of 1.3915. The next up move happens only above the level of 1.3915 for 1.40. During yesterday's trading session, we recommended a buy call above the level of 1.3877 with targets at 1.3898, 1.3915, and 1.40. We are waiting for the final target. On the downside, a move below the level of 1.3880, the price will fall to 1.3860, 1.3833, 1.3812, and 1.3782 (intraday). A fresh breakout is only above 1.3964 for 1.40 and 1.4171. Intraday recommendation- Buy above 1.3915 with targets at 1.3664 and 1.40. Sell below 1.3880 with targets at 1.3860, 1.3833, 1.3812, and 1.3782.
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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 14, 2014
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The pair has been trying to cross the resistance level of 0.9085. If the pair closes above the level of 0.9085, then we can see a huge momentum upside towards the targets at 0.9205, 0.9246, 0.9450, and 0.9516. The pair did multiple attempts to cross the 0.9085 level from its daily high made on January 13, 2014. It succeeded three times, but was unable to close above that level. On the down side, 0.8992, 0.8977, and 0.8929 are the strong support zones. A move below the level of 0.8890 will lead to a fall towards 0.8730, 0.8693, and 0.8660. The daily momentum indicators show a buy signal.
Positional
S1 0.8992 R1 0.9085
S2 0.8890 R2 0.9205
S3 0.0.8693 R3 0.9246
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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 17, 2014
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Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The EUR/JPY pair seems to be bouncing off right from the trend line support as seen here. Please note that this region is also the past resistance turned support area. It is recommended to book profits from short positions taken earlier. Aggressive trade setup would be to go long again, risk remains below 140.00.
2. Immediate support is at 138.50/136.50 (intermediary), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower, while resistance is at 144.00 (intermediary), followed by 145.50 respectively. 3. The structure reveals that a bullish bounce here, would bring back control with bulls again and prices should rally back towards fresh highs.
Trading recommendations:
Book profits on short positions. Initiate longs now (141.05), set stop below 140.00, target is open.
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Technical analysis of USDX for March 18, 2014
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The US dollar index is trading in a weak trend. The pair is in a consolidation phase with strong support between 79.27 and 79.0. The RSI gives positive divergence indications in the hourly chart. A move below the 79 mark leads to more dramatic fall in coming days. On the upside, a move above the 79.70-79.87 area will attract buying bids. If the price crosses the 79.87, a buy call will generate towards the 80.12, 80.40, and 80.75 levels. In the daily chart, RSI is at a buying level. If any dramatic fall happens, it leads to oversold and a pullback will be expected in the near term. On the downside, if the price breaks the 79 mark, it will drift to 78.90 and 78.6 immediately. Buying is the best strategy in the near term.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 19, 2014
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The euro has risen in what could turn out to be an ending pattern. Based on the wave count below, we are in wave c of E up with the upper line at 1.396. Will it stop there or not? Will it take a European intervention to stop it? The Dollar index broke below the 79.5 mark, consolidating near the lowest levels. A break below the recent lows showing continued weakness in the dollar is going on. If the dollar goes into a collapse, trillions of the US dollars will start flowing out into other markets, then I am not sure what it will look like. 1.396 is going to be an important level. In Asia, the pair is trading at 1.3928. The pair is holding above the 21EMA in H4 chart. On the downside, support exists at 1.3910, 1.3891, 1.3862, and 1.3833. If the pair breaks the 1.3833 levels, it will drift to 1.3707. We can expect a strong reversal to happen at the level between 1.3845 and 1.3833. On the up side, if the pair trades above the 1.3966 level, we will see 1.4 and 1.41 levels.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 20, 2014
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EUR/USD is trading near key support at the level of 21EMA at 1.3816. Today in Asia, the pair has broken the level and made a low at 1.3814 as of now. As we recommended earlier, hold shorts until the pair crosses the level of 1.396. In the daily chart, the RSI is showing a sell sign. For today, trading perspective at 1.3803 is the key level, if the pair holds this level, we will see some pullback from the current level.
On the upside, 1.3893 and 1.3945 is the major resistance level fon a hourly basis. In the H4 chart, RSI is in oversold condition, we can see some pullback. On the downside, if the pair breaks the level of 1.3803 it will drift towards 1.3774 1.3708, and 1.3643.
Recommendation
- 1.3803 is the key level.
Intraday Buy with sl 1.3773 for targets at 1.3899, 1.3945.
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Technical analysis of Silver for March 21, 2014
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Unlike gold, silver failed to go above the 40-week average. It lacks the same impulsive behavior so it might be doing something different. $20.42 is the 20wma support, below which I would consider that its still forming a triangle and could go down to the lower line at $19.22$.
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