Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The America filled the economic calendar with its important releases yesterday. For March, the Durable Goods Orders record was issued first wherein it came out at 0.8% in opposition to the report of 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence for April hitted 94.2 wherein the recent value was 94.2 and the report was 96.0. Traders were hoping to have a glimpse of sign about the state of the economy before the Fed release their decision on Wednesday. And this could also have an effect on any further activity of the dollar. Now, investors abstain from opening new positions before the meeting.

The Eurozone did not have any significant news yesterday. After a solid increase, the EUR/USD pair reduced a bit by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the UK has issued Mortgage Approvals index for March wherein the data came in at 45.1K in opposition to the report of 46.0K. The GBP/USD pair displayed an increase but diminished a bit by the end of the trades.

The attraction set for the safe assets provoked the buying of yen. The gossips regarding the BoJ who won't implement fresh soft measures also sustained the yen. We are thinking that the regulator will cautiously assess the impact of the running measures furthermore and will implement the new ones only in June. The USD/JPY pair consolidated.


Attachment 11824

As it has been expected, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK heightened by 0.4%, while its economy made an increase of 0.6%. The interest for the pound were sustained a bit by the 10-year UK government bonds yield which showed a growth in the Bonds Market.

The first support stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. While the first resistance occurs at 1.4560 and at 1.4650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

Attachment 11827

The US and Germany government bonds yield differential has reduced in the bond market which also served as a "bullish" factor for the euro. Since commodity prices are in the US currency, the commodity market displayed an ascending trend that normally had a negative effect on the dollar. The center of attraction were focused on the US Fed meeting.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a poor sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

Attachment 11828

On Wednesday, the dollar were constantly steadfast to other major currencies as a preparation for the last Federal Reserve System political speech. Investors put their attention to the result of the political meeting expecting for any signs about the interest rates modification in June. The Fed left the rates remained at 0.5%.

In Germany, the Consumer Confidence outstandingly improved as it came at 9.7 in opposition to the recent value of 9.4. The consumers think that the economy of Germany will get better for the next months and look forward to its modest improvement. The EUR/USD stabilized a little.

Since the market realized that the UK economy gained by 0.4%, the pound ceased in growing together with the expectations of economists, but it slowed down to 0.6% in the recent quarter. In the first quarter, the UK economy grew by 2.1% on annual basis, which is the same with the recent quarter and rather high than the anticipated 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair heightened by the end of the trades.

Attachment 11831

The kiwi is hovering 20 pips below 0.70 handle after recording losses from an intraday high of 0.6990. With rate decisions coming from a number of currencies this week, NZD is showing the second strongest performance after the Yen.

The ANZ Business Confidence released today showed that companies are expecting positive economic activity as it jumped from 3.2 in March to 6.2 in April. Thirty-five percent of the surveyed firms predict an interest rate cut in the next policy meeting.

On the US side, personal spending will be released today while a deluge of data including manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payroll will come next week.

The first support is at 0.6918 and 0.6883 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7037 and 0.7072 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in neutral location. The price is rising.


Attachment 11832

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

Attachment 11846

The Manufacturing PMI of the USA for April heightened to 51.8. Many traders had looked forward for the index to lessen by 51 in opposition to 51.5 recorded in March. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI of Japan surpass our expectations and grew by 48.2 contrary to the report of 48.0.

The first support occurs at 105.80 and at 105.00 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 106.60 and at 107.40 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.

Attachment 11847

Insignificant forecasts has been issued by the USA which is the ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices wherein the data came in at 48,7 in opposition to the reported 46,6. The stabilization of the price can be viewed already, yet it is too soon to determine whether this is enough for a rate hike. At the next meeting that will take place in June, the decision for the rate hike will come up.

Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March displayed -4.2% wherein the report was -4.3% and the recent value was -4.2%. And for the first time this year, the index heightened. It could be a sign that the growth is impossible to decline for the next months.

The pound reduced on Tuesday from being on peak for four months when the manufacturing activity of the UK dropped in April for the first time over the past three years wherein the data came in at 49.2 from 51.0 in March contrary to the reported 51.2. The index that has been issued heightened the concerns regarding the probable growth in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, in the midst of the Constitution Day, the Bank of Japan did not have any activity on Tuesday.


Attachment 11849

Declining to its bottom-most level since February 2013, the Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK modulated to 49.2 in April. This data was lower than the re-assessed value of 50.7 in March and below the economists' expectation of 51.2. The Manufacturing is still one of the most unpredictable sectors of the economy and still faces challenges including poor demand in the Asian markets and the slowing down of the euro area.

The first support occurs at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4560 and at 1.4670 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a horizontal motion. The ascending movement will remain until the price is on top of the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is strengthening.

Attachment 11851

Favorable market data trimmed the Aussie dollar's losses and bounced it back to 0.75 handle in the early session.

Australia's statistics bureau revealed on Wednesday that retail sales gained 0.4 percent in March from February's 0.1 percent, topping a projected 0.3 percent growth. However, retail sales for the first quarter only rose by 0.5 percent, just 0.2 points shy of analysts' 0.7 percent expectations. Retail sales in Q4 of 2015 was 0.6 percent.

But the upbeat data still failed to propel the once-glowing USD to 76 cents. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7492, struggling to break through 0.75 level, although it reached an intraday high of 0.7515 before sinking back down.

Scott Morrison, Australia's treasurer, said on Thursday that RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe will take Glenn Stevens' place as governor on September 18. Lowe will fill the post for seven years.

The first support occurs at 0.7416 and 0.7379. The first resistance is at 0.7488 and 0.7525. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is increasing.


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