Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.


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The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

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On Thursday, the central events were the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's speech. The rate remained unchanged by the regulator at 0%. Draghi stated that he does not also deny a transition to the negative rates. The soft policy will remain until the inflation hits 2%.

The dissatisfying retail sales publication cause the pound to decrease in opposition to the US dollar which weaken the optimism regarding the strength of the British economy. The total number of retail sales for March was anticipated to lessen by 0.1%, but it was diminished even lower to 1.3%.

For April, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index reduced and displayed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims occured at 247,000 contrary to the reported 263,000.

In spite of lower than expected Trade Balance publication, the yen increased slightly wherein the Balance reached 755 billion contrary to the expected 834,6 billion. While the exports increased from -4.0% y/y to -6.8% y/y, imports heightened from -14.2% y/y to 14.9% y/y. Kuroda's speech about further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.


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The Eurozone’s interest rate was kept parked at 0 percent, ECB president Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The announcement sent the Euro to the bulls but traders’ reaction quickly dissipated, sending the pair to 1.12 levels.

Draghi dismissed reports that helicopter money will soon enter the picture, generally showing an upbeat look on the economy. He kept doors open for a negative interest rate in the future.

Inflation was at 0 percent last month, largely missing ECB’s target of almost 2 percent. Draghi said that the inflation should rise before 2016 ends.

The ECB president also responded to Germany’s criticisms on the former’s soft monetary policies.

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone and not only for Germany alone,” he said.

The market is now waiting for reactions from Fed.

The MACD is currently below its 9-day EMA, reaching an intraday high of 1.1311. The spot rate is 1.1282 at the time of writing and is still declining. The pair is facing an immediate support at 1.129 and 1.1162, subsequently, while immediate resistance is at 1.1341 and 1.1397 subsequently.

The Eurozone’s monthly manufacturing and services PMI are the next stimulus for the pair. Figures will be released later today.


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The Aussie dollar is retracing despite high iron prices, and rallying commodity prices and risk sentiment. The AUD slipped to 0.7726 from today’s high of 0.7775 due to a recovering USD and flat oil prices.

Shortly after ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the Eurozone’s interest rate will remain at 0 percent yesterday, the pair reached 0.78 cents, but similar to the EUR/USD, dipped as well.

The pair’s 4-hour MACD shows a bearish divergence, but the long-term weekly MACD is pushing for a bullish convergence. The MACD indicator is in neutral location.

The pair’s first support occurs at 0.7684 and 0.7646 subsequently, while its first resistance is at 0.7787 and 0.7826.

The greenbacks’ side is fairly quiet with no data outflow later today.


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Further than what is anticipated, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany increased in the past month. It can be seen in the index that it grew by 51.9 contrary to the 50.7 in the recent month. Nevertheless, experts had expected the growth of index to 51.0.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending motion. This movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.


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After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday. Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.


Attachment 11807

On Monday, the dollar fell contrary to the yen, bidding goodbye to the three weeks of growth. The market was expecting for the Fed and BoJ meeting.

The first support occurs at 110.60 and at 109.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 111.40 and at 112.20 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

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The New Zealand dollar recovered when markets opened on Tuesday while the USD index is still weak.

Ahead of the RBNZ’s announcement on monetary policies, the central bank’s shadow board put together by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research urged that interest rate should remain at 2.25 percent, causing the bird to fly a little higher.

The pair broke through yesterday’s resistance of 0.6895, peaking at 0.6897 earlier today. The kiwi dollar is currently testing 0.69 levels and is trading at a 42-pip range.

The initial support is at 0.6848 and 0.6814 subsequently. The immediate resistance is now at 0.6921. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 0.6893 and rising.


Attachment 11817

Buying interest are surrounding the Euro as markets remain vigilant ahead of the FOMC meeting. Lower than expected home sales from the US also added upward pressure to the Euro.

Annual home sales only reached 511,000 from last year’s 519,000, hugely missing forecasts of 520,000. The spotlights are now on Fed’s two-day policy meeting that will commence later today and the announcement from the BOJ on Thursday.

The pair rose to 1.1301 today, almost hitting the nearest resistance of 1.1305. The next resistance is at 1.1362. The first support occurs at 1.1243 and 1.1187 subsequently.

The exchange rate is now at 1.1295. The MACD is in a negative location. The price is climbing.



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