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I’m guessing the big casinos lobbied Congress for this ban. They probably figure all those online players will be forced to come to the casinos now. Plus, getting even with the offshore gambling moguls makes them feel good.
Do you think it’s a coincidence that on the same day the newswire reported the online poker ban, a group of private investors announced a $15 billion buyout of Harrah’s? I don’t. I bet these private investors think casino profits will rocket now that online gambling is out of the market.
What I can’t figure out at this point is: Are they really this stupid? Have they have failed to realize that Internet gambling is the primary source of growth for brick and mortar casinos?
For 150 years, the poker business went nowhere. Then the Internet comes along, and suddenly the whole country went crazy about poker. It is no coincidence. Internet poker paid for televised poker with advertising dollars. Next thing you know, everyone wants to play poker at home, online, and in the casinos.
Or look at it this way: The recent World Series of Poker had 8,567 entrants, each paying $10,000. More than half of them qualified through online poker tournaments.
If they’re stupid, the casinos just killed the goose that lays golden eggs. By pushing for a ban of online poker, I think Las Vegas casinos just wiped out three years of revenue growth. Maybe more.
There is another possibility. Once again, I can’t prove any of this. This is my theory only. But this hypothesis makes much more sense.
The casinos are following a long-term strategic plan to dominate the online poker business. First they get Congress to clear the marketplace. Then they wait a few years for the dust to settle. Finally they push congress to rescind the ban and regulate the industry.
Only this time, the Vegas casinos have the market all to themselves. And the senators get their hands on the tax revenue.
Here’s how I’m going to play it: First, I’m going to wait for the casino stocks to trend lower. Without online poker, the casinos will earn less money, and this week’s events will turn out to be a massive sell signal for casino stocks.
The stocks could halve in value, at which point I’ll buy them. And then, I wait. If I’m right about all of this, senators will call for regulation sooner or later. Then news will leak that Harrah’s has developed an online gambling platform... and the gambling boom will reignite.
Good investing,