-
I remain bullish on USD/CAD.
Trade Idea: USD/Cad - Buy (Stop) at 1.0280; Target: 1.0480 ; Stop: 1.0200.
See the details on the charts.
"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 246.9 Month ~ 7259 Day
Database 1038 records 1.02573 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-10-17 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6250|~25O||____________+________________________ _______|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||________x___x_+______________________ _______|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x___x_o_x_o_+____________________ _______|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+__________________ _______|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+________________ _______|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+______________ _______|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+____________ _______|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|____x_o_____+_o___________+__________ _______|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x___x_____+___o_____________+________ _______|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+______ _______|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+____ _______|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+__ _______|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+ _______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x _+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o___o_________x_o_x_o_x _o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_________________o_x_______x_o_x_o_x _o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x _o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o__ _o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o___o_x___x_o_x____ _o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_____________________o_x_o_x_o______ _o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x________ _o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o___o_x________ _o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|__________________________o_x________ _o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x________ _o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|==========================o=x=======+ =o=x=o=x36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|__________________________o_x_____+__ _o_+_o_|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+____ _+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+______ _______|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+________ _______|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+__________ _______|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4 _1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5________ _2_____|
http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/8477/10oct241520.png http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/9129/10oct241529.png
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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1 Attachment(s)
Oli Light
I predict a bullish development of the price movement.
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov040636.PNG
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GBP/USD
It is more likely to go down to around 1.6150 or 1.6100, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.6200 - 1.6400
Trade Idea: GBP/USD- Buy (Stop or Limit) at 1.6020; Target: 1.6440 ; Stop: 1.5900.
"P&F GBPUSD10080 Box Size 250X5 or(7.21%) HI/LO
Data 2.1161 - 1.3503 ~ 246.67 Month ~ 7252 Day
Database 1037 records 1.61809 (Last Close)
1990-12-23 00~00
2010-10-31 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
2.1250|~25O||______________________________+______ ___|-0.42%|57.37%
2.1000|~5OO||______________________________x_+____ ___|0.76%|55.52%
2.0750|~75O||______________________________x_o_+__ ___|1.94%|53.67%
2.0500|~1OOO|______________________________x_o___+ ___|3.12%|51.82%
2.0250|~125O|______+_______________________x_o____ _+_|4.31%|49.97%
2.0000|~15OO|______x_+_____________________x_o____ ___|5.49%|48.12%
1.9750|~175O|______x_o_+___________________x_o____ ___|6.67%|46.26%
1.9500|~2OOO|o_____x_o___+_____________x___x_o____ ___|7.85%|44.41%
1.9250|~225O|o_____x_o_____+___________x_o_x_o____ ___|9.03%|42.56%
1.9000|~25OO|o_____x_o_______+_____x___x_o_x_o____ ___|10.21%|40.71%
1.8750|~275O|o_x___x_o_________+___x_o_x_o_x_o____ ___|11.39%|38.86%
1.8500|~3OOO|o_x_o_x_o___________+_x_o_x_o_x_o____ ___|12.58%|37.01%
1.8250|~325O|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o____ ___|13.76%|35.16%
1.8000|~35OO|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o____ ___|14.94%|33.3%
1.7750|~375O|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o____ ___|16.12%|31.45%
1.7500|~4OOO|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o___o_x_o____ ___|17.3%|29.6%
1.7250|~425O|o_x_o_x_o_____x_______x_____o___o____ ___|18.48%|27.75%
1.7000|~45OO|o_x_o___o_____x_o_____x_________o_x__ ___|19.66%|25.9%
1.6750|~475O|o_x_____o_____x_o_x___x_________o_x_o ___|20.84%|24.05%
1.6500|~5OOO|o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o ___|22.03%|22.2%
1.6250|~525O|o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o _x_|23.21%|20.34%
1.6000|~55OO|o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o _x_|24.39%|18.49%
1.5750|~575O|________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o _x_|25.57%|16.64%
1.5500|~6OOO|________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_________o_x_o _x_|26.75%|14.79%
1.5250|~625O|________o_x_o_x___+_o_x_________o_x_o _x_|27.93%|12.94%
1.5000|~65OO|________o_x_o___+___o_x_________o_x_o _x_|29.11%|11.09%
1.4750|~675O|________o_x___+_____o_x_______+_o_x_o _x_|30.3%|9.23%
1.4500|~7OOO|________o_x_+_______o_x_____+___o_x_o _x_|31.48%|7.38%
1.4250|~725O|________o_+_________o_x___+_____o_x_o _+_|32.66%|5.53%
1.4000|~75OO|________+___________o_x_+_______o_x_+ ___|33.84%|3.68%
1.3750|~775O|____________________o_+_________o_+__ ___|35.02%|1.83%
1.3500|~8OOO|____________________+___________+____ ___|36.2%|-0.02%
Column|||||||1_1_7_1_2_9_6_9_7_5_1_2_6_8_9_1_2_1_1 _8_|
Count||||||||5_1___2_3___________2_1_______5_9_3_1 ___|
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov072047.PNG http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov072109.PNG
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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Из-за длительного нисхощдящего движения и достижения новых минимумов должна последовать как минимум глубокая коррекция.
_____I remain bullish on USD/JPY.
_____Dollar/Yen bottomed out and is now recovering, even without an intervention by the Bank of Japan.
_____The weakness of the Japanese economy is likely to be confirmed now, pushing the pair higher.
_____Trade Idea: Usd/Jpy - Buy (Stop Limit) at 82.40; Target: 84.00 ; Stop: 81.60.
"P&F USDJPY10080 Box Size 270X4 or(9.5%) HI/LO
Data 147.71 - 79.75 ~ 247.38 Month ~ 7273 Day
Database 1040 records 82.518 (Last Close)
1990-12-09 00~00
2010-11-07 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
148.5|~27O||________________+_____________________ __|-0.53%|86.21%
145.8|~54O||________________x_+___________________ __|1.29%|82.82%
143.1|~81O||+_______________x_o_+_________________ __|3.12%|79.44%
140.4|~1O8O|x_+_____________x_o___+_______________ __|4.95%|76.05%
137.7|~135O|x_o_+___________x_o_____+_____________ __|6.78%|72.66%
135.0|~162O|x_o_x_+_________x_o_____x_+___________ __|8.6%|69.28%
132.3|~189O|x_o_x_o_+_______x_o_____x_o_+_________ __|10.43%|65.89%
129.6|~216O|__o_x_o___+_____x_o_____x_o___+_______ __|12.26%|62.51%
126.9|~243O|__o_x_o_____x___x_o_____x_o_____+_____ __|14.09%|59.12%
124.2|~27OO|__o_+_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x_o_______+___ __|15.92%|55.74%
121.5|~297O|__+___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______+_ __|17.74%|52.35%
118.8|~324O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______ +_|19.57%|48.97%
116.1|~351O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______ __|21.4%|45.58%
113.4|~378O|______o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______ __|23.23%|42.19%
110.7|~4O5O|______o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x_o_x_o_______ __|25.06%|38.81%
108.0|~432O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_____ __|26.88%|35.42%
105.3|~459O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___ __|28.71%|32.04%
102.6|~486O|______o_+_o_x_________o___o_+_o_x_o___ __|30.54%|28.65%
99.90|~513O|______+___o_x_____________+___o_x_o_x_ __|32.37%|25.27%
97.20|~54OO|__________o_x___________+_____o_+_o_x_ o_|34.2%|21.88%
94.50|~567O|__________o_x_________+_______+___o_x_ o_|36.02%|18.5%
91.80|~594O|__________o_x_______+_____________o_x_ o_|37.85%|15.11%
89.10|~621O|__________o_x_____+_______________o_+_ o_|39.68%|11.72%
86.40|~648O|__________o_x___+_________________+___ o_|41.51%|8.34%
83.70|~675O|==========o=x=+======================= o=X3.33%|4.95%
81.00|~7O2O|__________o_+_________________________ o_|45.16%|1.57%
78.30|~729O|__________+___________________________ +_|46.99%|-1.82%
Column||||||4_6_4_1_4_1_1_6_1_1_5_8_1_1_7_9_4_7_4_ 7_|
Count|||||||______2___2_7___3_3_____2_2___________ __|
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov142046.PNG http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov142314.PNG
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.
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http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov211718.PNG
"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size 170X3 or(5.33%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 221.19 Month ~ 6503 Day
Database 930 records 78.48 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-11-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
120.7|~17O||________________________+___+_________ __________________|-0.16%|70.72%
119.0|~34O||____________________+___x_o_x_+_______ __________________|1.25%|68.32%
117.3|~51O||____________________x_+_x_o_x_o_+_____ __________________|2.66%|65.91%
115.6|~68O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+___ __________________|4.07%|63.51%
113.9|~85O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_ __________________|5.49%|61.1%
112.2|~1O2O|____________________x_o_x_o___o_______ +_________________|6.9%|58.7%
110.5|~119O|____________________x_o_x_____o_______ __+_______________|8.31%|56.29%
108.8|~136O|____________________x_o_______o_______ ____+_____________|9.72%|53.89%
107.1|~153O|____________________x_________o_______ ______+___________|11.13%|51.49%
105.4|~17OO|________________+___x_________o_______ ________+_________|12.54%|49.08%
103.7|~187O|____________+___x_+_x_________o_______ __________+_______|13.95%|46.68%
102.0|~2O4O|________+___x_+_x_o_x_________o_______ ____________+_____|15.36%|44.27%
100.3|~221O|________x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________o_______ ______________+___|16.77%|41.87%
98.60|~238O|____+___x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_o_x_____ ________________+_|18.18%|39.46%
96.90|~255O|____x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________+___o_x_o___ __________________|19.59%|37.06%
95.20|~272O|+___x_o_x_o___o_x_______+_____o_x_o___ __________________|21%|34.65%
93.50|~289O|x_+_x_o_x_____o_______+_______o_+_o___ __________________|22.41%|32.25%
91.80|~3O6O|__o_x_o_x___________+_________+___o_x_ __x_______________|23.82%|29.84%
90.10|~323O|__o_x_o_x_________+_______________o_x_ o_x_o_____________|25.23%|27.44%
88.40|~34OO|__o_+_o_x_______+_________________o_x_ o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.65%|25.04%
86.70|~357O|__+___o_x_____+___________________o_x_ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.06%|22.63%
85.00|~374O|______o_x___+_____________________o_+_ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.47%|20.23%
83.30|~391O|______o_x_+_______________________+___ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.88%|17.82%
81.60|~4O8O|______o_+_____________________________ o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|32.29%|15.42%
79.90|~425O|______+_______________________________ +___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|33.7%|13.01%
78.20|~442O|====================================== ====o=x=o===o=x=o=X35.11%|10.61%
76.50|~459O|______________________________________ ____o_x_____o_x_o_|36.52%|8.2%
74.80|~476O|______________________________________ ____o_x___+_o_+___|37.93%|5.8%
73.10|~493O|______________________________________ ____o_x_+___+_____|39.34%|3.39%
71.40|~51OO|______________________________________ ____o_+___________|40.75%|0.99%
69.70|~527O|______________________________________ ____+_____________|42.16%|-1.41%
Column||||||1_3_5_9_1_3_4_5_6_3_1_5_6_5_4_1_3_8_4_ 6_6_1_1_6_6_8_8_7_|
Count|||||||________1___________1_________5_______ ____2_O___________|
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov202059.PNG http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov202101.PNG
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov281723.PNG
"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 155.85 Month ~ 4582 Day
Database 3277 records 1.32402 (Last Close)
1998-05-11 00~00
2010-11-26 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6000|~25O||______________________+___x_+________ _____________|0.24%|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_x_o_+______ _____________|1.8%|91.49%
1.5500|~75O||______________________x___x_o___+____ _____________|3.35%|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_____o_____+__ _____+_______|4.91%|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|______________________x_____o_______+ _____x_+_____|6.47%|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_____o_x______ _+___x_o_+___|8.03%|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|______________________x_____o_x_o____ _x_+_x_o___+_|9.59%|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_____o_x_o____ _x_o_x_o_x___|11.15%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________________x_____o___o____ _x_o_x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________+___x_________o____ _x_o_x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__________________x_+_x_________o____ _x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_________o_x__ _x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|______________+___x_o_x_________o_x_o _x_o_x_o_x___|18.94%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|______________x_+_x_o_x_________o_x_o _x_o_x_o_x___|20.5%|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|__+___________x_o_x_o_x_________o___o ___o___o_x___|22.06%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|__x_+_________x_o_x_o_x______________ _+_____o_x_+_|23.62%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|__x_o_+___+___x_o___o_x_____________+ _______o_+___|25.18%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|__x_o___+_x_+_x_____o_____________+__ _______+_____|26.74%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|o_x_o_____x_o_x_________________+____ _____________|28.3%|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+______ _____________|29.85%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|o_+_o_____x_o_______________+________ _____________|31.41%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|+___o_____x_______________+__________ _____________|32.97%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+____________ _____________|34.53%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+______________ _____________|36.09%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+________________ _____________|37.65%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+__________________ _____________|39.21%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+____________________ _____________|40.77%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+______________________ _____________|42.32%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+________________________ _____________|43.88%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x__________________________ _____________|45.44%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o____________________________ _____________|47%|3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+______________________________ _____________|48.56%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|____+________________________________ _____________|50.12%|-2.74%
Column|||||||2_5_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_1_3_8_3_9_3_3 _8_8_1_1_9_4_|
Count||||||||____6_____3___________6______________ _____O_2_____|
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov281738.PNG http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Nov281750.PNG
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Dec051649.PNG
"P&F NZDUSD10080 Box Size 150X3 or(7.43%) HI/LO
Data 0.8214 - 0.39 ~ 248.57 Month ~ 7308 Day
Database 1045 records 0.76571 (Last Close)
1990-11-25 00~00
2010-11-28 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
0.8250|~15O||__________________________+___+______ _____________________|-0.44%|111.54%
0.8100|~3OO||__________________________x_+_x_+____ _________________+___|1.39%|107.69%
0.7950|~45O||__________________________x_o_x_o_+__ _________________x_+_|3.21%|103.85%
0.7800|~6OO||__________________________x_o_x_o___+ _________________x_o_|5.04%|100%
0.7650|~75O||__________________________x_o_x_o____ _+___________+___x_o_x6.87%|96.15%
0.7500|~9OO||______________________+___x_o_x_o____ ___+_________x_+_x_o_|8.69%|92.31%
0.7350|~1O5O|______________________x_+_x_o_x_o____ _____+_______x_o_x___|10.52%|88.46%
0.7200|~12OO|__+_______________+___x_o_x_o_x_o____ _______+_____x_o_x___|12.34%|84.62%
0.7050|~135O|__x_+_____________x_+_x_o_x_o_x_o____ _________+___x_o_x___|14.17%|80.77%
0.6900|~15OO|__x_o_+___________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ ___________+_x_o_x___|16%|76.92%
0.6750|~165O|__x_o___+_________x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o _____________x_o_x___|17.82%|73.08%
0.6600|~18OO|__x_o_____+_______x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o _____________x_o_____|19.65%|69.23%
0.6450|~195O|__x_o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x_____o___o _____________x_______|21.48%|65.38%
0.6300|~21OO|__x_o_________+___x_o_x_o_x_________o _x___________x_______|23.3%|61.54%
0.6150|~225O|__x_o___________+_x_o_x_o_x_________o _x_o_________x_______|25.13%|57.69%
0.6000|~24OO|o_x_o_____________x_o___o___________o _x_o_x___x___x_______|26.95%|53.85%
0.5850|~255O|o_x_o_____________x_________________o _+_o_x_o_x_o_x_______|28.78%|50%
0.5700|~27OO|o_x_o_____________x_________________+ ___o_x_o_x_o_x_______|30.61%|46.15%
0.5550|~285O|o_x_o_x___________x_______________+__ ___o_x_o_x_o_x_______|32.43%|42.31%
0.5400|~3OOO|o_x_o_x_o_________x_____________+____ ___o_+_o_x_o_x_____+_|34.26%|38.46%
0.5250|~315O|o_x_o_x_o_________x___________+______ ___+___o_+_o_x___+___|36.08%|34.62%
0.5100|~33OO|o_+_o_x_o_________x_________+________ _______+___o_x_+_____|37.91%|30.77%
0.4950|~345O|+___o_x_o_____x___x_______+__________ ___________o_+_______|39.74%|26.92%
0.4800|~36OO|____o_+_o_____x_o_x_____+____________ ___________+_________|41.56%|23.08%
0.4650|~375O|____+___o_____x_o_x___+______________ _____________________|43.39%|19.23%
0.4500|~39OO|________o_x___x_o___+________________ _____________________|45.22%|15.38%
0.4350|~4O5O|________o_x_o_x___+__________________ _____________________|47.04%|11.54%
0.4200|~42OO|________o_x_o_x_+____________________ _____________________|48.87%|7.69%
0.4050|~435O|________o_+_o_+______________________ _____________________|50.69%|3.85%
0.3900|~45OO|________+___+________________________ _____________________|52.52%|0%
Column|||||||7_1_1_5_1_3_3_6_3_1_7_9_9_1_9_9_1_3_7 _3_6_4_5_5_7_1_6_9_3_|
Count||||||||__3_5___O_________7_______4_____1____ _____________7_______|
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Dec051851.PNG http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Dec051853.PNG
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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Канадский доллар(USD\CAD) длительное время , можно говорить с сентября 2009 года находится в горизонтальном движении (лист 001 Excel файла ). И если воспользоваться классической методикой горизонтального счёта P&F, то в долгосрочной перспективе возможен рост в район 1.1500 или падение к 0.9000 т.е. приближается время разрешения ситуации. Касательно долгосрочной перспективы мнения есть разные. Но большинство склоняется к тому, что доллар США будет снижаться по отношению к канадскому доллару. Я относительно долгосрочной перспективы готов лишь утверждать, что подходит время
сильного движения.
"P&F USDCAD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(5.94%) HI/LO
Data 1.6196 - 0.9056 ~ 248.57 Month ~ 7308 Day
Database 1045 records 1.00896 (Last Close)
1990-12-02 00~00
2010-12-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6250|~25O||________+___+________________________ _______|-0.33%|79.44%
1.6000|~5OO||____+___x_+_x_+______________________ _______|1.21%|76.68%
1.5750|~75O||____x_+_x_o_x_o_+____________________ _______|2.75%|73.92%
1.5500|~1OOO|____x_o_x_o_x_o___+__________________ _______|4.3%|71.16%
1.5250|~125O|____x_o_x_o___o_____+________________ _______|5.84%|68.4%
1.5000|~15OO|____x_o_x_____o_______+______________ _______|7.38%|65.64%
1.4750|~175O|____x_o_x_____o_________+____________ _______|8.93%|62.88%
1.4500|~2OOO|+___x_o_____+_o___________+__________ _______|10.47%|60.11%
1.4250|~225O|x_+_x_____+___o_____________+________ _______|12.02%|57.35%
1.4000|~25OO|x_o_x___+_____o_x_____________+______ _______|13.56%|54.59%
1.3750|~275O|x_o_x_+_______o_x_o_____________+____ _______|15.1%|51.83%
1.3500|~3OOO|x_o_+_________o_x_o_______________+__ _______|16.65%|49.07%
1.3250|~325O|x_+___________o_x_o_________________+ _______|18.19%|46.31%
1.3000|~35OO|x_____________o_x_o_________x___x___x _+_____|19.73%|43.55%
1.2750|~375O|x_____________o_+_o_________x_o_x_o_x _o_+___|21.28%|40.79%
1.2500|~4OOO|x_____________+___o_x_______x_o_x_o_x _o___+_|22.82%|38.03%
1.2250|~425O|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x _o_____|24.36%|35.27%
1.2000|~45OO|x_________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o__ _o_____|25.91%|32.51%
1.1750|~475O|x_________________o_+_o_x___x_o_x____ _o_____|27.45%|29.75%
1.1500|~5OOO|x_________________+___o_x_o_x_o______ _o_____|28.99%|26.99%
1.1250|~525O|______________________o_x_o_x________ _o_____|30.54%|24.23%
1.1000|~55OO|______________________o_+_o_x________ _o_____|32.08%|21.47%
1.0750|~575O|______________________+___o_x________ _o_x___|33.63%|18.71%
1.0500|~6OOO|__________________________o_x________ _o_x_o_|35.17%|15.95%
1.0250|~625O|__________________________o_x_______+ _o_x_o_|36.71%|13.18%
1.0000|~65OO|==========================o=x=====+== =o=+=o=|38.26%|10.42%
0.9750|~675O|__________________________o_x___+____ _+___+_|39.8%|7.66%
0.9500|~7OOO|__________________________o_x_+______ _______|41.34%|4.9%
0.9250|~725O|__________________________o_+________ _______|42.89%|2.14%
0.9000|~75OO|__________________________+__________ _______|44.43%|-0.62%
Column|||||||1_3_9_5_6_3_3_1_5_9_3_6_3_1_1_6_6_4_4 _1_3_3_|
Count||||||||2_____________3___________O_5________ _2_____|
На этом текстовом графике ценовые изменения пары Usd\Cad за последние 20 лет. Как видим пара колебалась в диапазоне 1.6196 - 0.9056 , а сейчас имеем двойное дно в районе 1.000.
На том же листе 001 Excel файла есть график времени, согласно применённому алгоритму (более подробные пояснения на графике) канадский доллар находится в уверенном нисходящем движении уже 88 дней. Однако пара трижды не могла преодолеть сопротивление в районе 0.9990. Это может свидетельствовать о возможном росте вплоть до 1.0350 -1.0360. Более подробно на листе 003 Excel файла.
Потому торговая идея видется так: Usd/Cad - Покупка (Stop Limit) от 1.0080; Цель: 1.0360 ; Стоп : 1.0000. (Лист General Excel файла )
На листе 004 картинки индикатора P&F для МТ-4 одной известной софтверной компании.Сам бесплатный индикатор во вложении на листе.
Относительно применяемого размера бокса и реверса есть два основных принципа. Можно избрать размер бокса и реверса под применяемую торговую систему. Т.е. выделяются паттерны допустим для размера 10х3
10 пунктов размер клетки разворот 30 пунктов.
Я использую несколько другой принцип определяю среднесуточное движение за 1000 дневных свечей ( если брать за 2000, 3000 или более дневных свечей данные не сильно отличаются от данных за 1000) и делю эти данные на три, при этом округляю до целого.
Например в среднем разница между дневными максимумами и минимумами по паре USD\CAD составляет 130 пунктов за 1000 дневных свечей. Разница между открытием и закрытием в среднем 65 пунктов за тот же период. Т.е. отношение 1/2. Самое интересное что по другим парам это соотношение один к двум тоже сохраняется.
Для канадского доллара базовый график таким образом будет 40х3, размер клетки 40 пунктов, игнорирование изменений цены 120 пунктов.
Это рассчитано в основном на среднесрочную торговлю.
Отталкиваться от среднесуточного изменения цены, естественно не моё изобретение.
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/9483/10dec120820.png
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A look at the CHF, its historical use as a safe haven currency.
P&F =>>> Chf\Jpy & Jpy\Chf; Usd\Chf; Gbp\Chf; Eur\Chf and Chf Index.
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...0Dec191904.PNG
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages2/...Dec1917471.PNG
=>>>img88.imageshack.us/img88/9812/10dec191731.pdf
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
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P&F =>>> EUR\Usd;Aud;Chf;Gbp;Nzd;Jpy;Cad.
http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/5...0dec270832.png
"P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 240.79 Month 7329 Day
Database 1048 records 1.31209 (Last Close)
1990-11-25 00 00
2010-12-19 00 00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"
1.6000|~25O||_____________________________________ _____________________x_+_____________________|0.24 %|94.53%
1.5750|~5OO||_____________________________________ _____________________x_o_+___________________|1.8% |91.49%
1.5500|~75O||_____________________________________ _____________________x_o___+_________________|3.35 %|88.45%
1.5250|~1OOO|_____________________________________ _____________________x_o_____+_______+_______|4.91 %|85.41%
1.5000|~125O|_____________________________________ _____________________x_o_______+_____x_+_____|6.47 %|82.37%
1.4750|~15OO|__________________________+__________ _____________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_+___|8.03 %|79.33%
1.4500|~175O|__________________________x_+________ _____________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o___+_|9.59 %|76.29%
1.4250|~2OOO|______________+___+_______x_o_+______ _____________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___|11.1 5%|73.25%
1.4000|~225O|______________x_+_x_+_____x_o_x_+____ _____________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|12.7 1%|70.21%
1.3750|~25OO|__+___________x_o_x_o_+___x_o_x_o_+__ _________________+___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|14.2 7%|67.17%
1.3500|~275O|__x_+_________x_o_x_o___+_x_o_x_o___+ _________________x_+_x_____o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|15.8 2%|64.13%
1.3250|~3OOO|__x_o_+___+___x_o_x_o_____x_o___o____ _+_______________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.3 8%|61.09%
1.3000|~325O|o_x_o___+_x_+_x_o___o_____x_____o____ ___+_________+___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.9 4%|58.05%
1.2750|~35OO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_____o_____x_____o____ _____+_______x_+_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|20.5 %|55.02%
1.2500|~375O|o_+_o_____x_o_x_____o_____x_____o____ _______+_____x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_x___|22.0 6%|51.98%
1.2250|~4OOO|+___o_____x_o_x_____o_x___x_____o____ _x_______+___x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_x_+_|23.6 2%|48.94%
1.2000|~425O|____o_____x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_____o____ _x_o_______+_x_o___o_x_____________+___o_+___|25.1 8%|45.9%
1.1750|~45OO|____o_____x_o_____+_o_x_o_x___+_o____ _x_o_____x___x_____o_____________+_____+_____|26.7 4%|42.86%
1.1500|~475O|____o_x___x_____+___o_x_o_x_+___o_x__ _x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_____________|28.3 %|39.82%
1.1250|~5OOO|____o_x_o_x___+_____o_+_o_+_____o_x_o _x_o_____x_o_x_______________+_______________|29.8 5%|36.78%
1.1000|~525O|____o_x_o_x_+_______+___+_______o_x_o _x_o_____x_o_______________+_________________|31.4 1%|33.74%
1.0750|~55OO|____o_+_o_+_____________________o_x_o ___o_____x_______________+___________________|32.9 7%|30.7%
1.0500|~575O|____+___+_______________________o_+__ ___o_____x_____________+_____________________|34.5 3%|27.66%
1.0250|~6OOO|________________________________+____ ___o_____x___________+_______________________|36.0 9%|24.62%
1.0000|~625O|_____________________________________ ___o_____x_________+_________________________|37.6 5%|21.58%
0.9750|~65OO|_____________________________________ ___o_____x_______+___________________________|39.2 1%|18.54%
0.9500|~675O|_____________________________________ ___o_x___x_____+_____________________________|40.7 7%|15.5%
0.9250|~7OOO|_____________________________________ ___o_x_o_x___+_______________________________|42.3 2%|12.46%
0.9000|~725O|_____________________________________ ___o_x_o_x_+_________________________________|43.8 8%|9.42%
0.8750|~75OO|_____________________________________ ___o_x_o_x___________________________________|45.4 4%|6.38%
0.8500|~775O|_____________________________________ ___o_x_o_____________________________________|47%| 3.34%
0.8250|~8OOO|_____________________________________ ___o_+_______________________________________|48.5 6%|0.3%
0.8000|~825O|_____________________________________ ___+_________________________________________|50.1 2%|-2.74%
Column|~85OO|3_4_1_3_3_9_5_9_4_4_1_4_4_1_5_3_1_4_3 _6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_9_5_|100% |-100%
Count|~875O||____1_______________1_____3_____4____ ___6_____3___________7_______________O_2_____|100% |-100%
http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/822...0dec270848.png
BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.