Thread: My Prediction.

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Originally Posted by Traveler

I believe a significant Reval is inevitable, at some point, but they just don't have all their ducks in a row, yet.

I also hope I am wrong.

Dont tell me you sent all your paper to warka?

Originally Posted by Bungalobill

Dont tell me you sent all your paper to warka?

I have all my Dinar in my safety deposit box.

I've been following this ride for over 3 years now. I still feel pretty confident the dinar will make us some $$ at some point but am finding it harder to believe I'll be rich over night.
I think with all the conflict going on they are going to have a tough time moving the dinar to a higher rate quickly. I also think we have less chance of a lop with the slow grow as we're seeing now.
I'm content to wait as for the first two years, the dinar stayed the same with no movement at all. I don't feel the stock exchange is going to have any effect - maybe a slight bit but no grand reveal. I have nothing but gut instinct to base that on.
I'll feel better when I see lower denoms in place as well. Kinda hard to buy milk with a 50 dinar note if the price is 2 dinar
Don't get me wrong, nothing would please me more than to have a few hundred grand or even a couple million bucks suddenly come my way (my husband has been having heart problems and probably won't be going back to work) but at this time, I just don't see any big changes coming this week.
mo-

Originally Posted by PaulieThaGreat

I predict that there will be no reval before the ISX opens. Please post your input and what your feelings are about the ISX opening and the relevance to a revalue of the Iraqi Dinar?

(Note: Lets hear all opinions, negative and positive. No bashing.)
~PaulieThaGreat

If it does not revalue before the opening of the ISX to the world, they are merely setting their self up for a tremendous fall. If I were to purchase stocks today (August 2nd for that matter) that have a par value of IQD 3, which is the equivalent of less than one U.S. cent all total, and then shortly afterward or even 6 months later the currency "reverted to former rates" as in $3.22, who in their right mind would not sell ALLtheir stock and take the profits? Answer is, anyone with the savvy to invest in the stock market, to begin with, would understand the benefits of cashing in their shares. When you see an arrow pointing downward on a stock market index, that is an indication that more shareholders sold than bought. More than likely, should the revalue take place after the ISX opens to the world, that is exactly what you would see. I know, I, for one, would sell my holdings and not even look back. If that takes place, obviously, portfolios lose value and everyone suffers. If portfolios lose value, regardless of how much, it must first regain any loss before any positives in the market can have their full effect...no matter how big the portfolio. It would be a long time before the market would regain its standing for those reasons already mentioned, plus the fact that the "companies" that those stock shares would be representing are located in a part of the world that seems to continually be plagued with political and social unrest. The "world" at large would take years before any "trust" would be strong enough to invest again. Oh, by the way, I'm registered with the NASD.

Edit: I have removed the Font type & reduced the size as well, it is horrible for reading!!! - YB.

i agree with everyone about all this but the only thing is how much longer can they hold off these countries that have forgiven them of their debt and the big investors if they dont do it soon people are going to lose interest and go somwhere else to make money

Originally Posted by boomcreek

If it does not revalue before the opening of the ISX to the world, they are merely setting their self up for a tremendous fall. If I were to purchase stocks today (August 2nd for that matter) that have a par value of IQD 3, which is the equivalent of less than one U.S. cent all total, and then shortly afterward or even 6 months later the currency "reverted to former rates" as in $3.22, who in their right mind would not sell ALLtheir stock and take the profits? Answer is, anyone with the savvy to invest in the stock market, to begin with, would understand the benefits of cashing in their shares. When you see an arrow pointing downward on a stock market index, that is an indication that more shareholders sold than bought. More than likely, should the revalue take place after the ISX opens to the world, that is exactly what you would see. I know, I, for one, would sell my holdings and not even look back. If that takes place, obviously, portfolios lose value and everyone suffers. If portfolios lose value, regardless of how much, it must first regain any loss before any positives in the market can have their full effect...no matter how big the portfolio. It would be a long time before the market would regain its standing for those reasons already mentioned, plus the fact that the "companies" that those stock shares would be representing are located in a part of the world that seems to continually be plagued with political and social unrest. The "world" at large would take years before any "trust" would be strong enough to invest again. Oh, by the way, I'm registered with the NASD.

I agree with u boomcreek

Originally Posted by boomcreek

If it does not revalue before the opening of the ISX to the world, they are merely setting their self up for a tremendous fall. If I were to purchase stocks today (August 2nd for that matter) that have a par value of IQD 3, which is the equivalent of less than one U.S. cent all total, and then shortly afterward or even 6 months later the currency "reverted to former rates" as in $3.22, who in their right mind would not sell ALLtheir stock and take the profits? Answer is, anyone with the savvy to invest in the stock market, to begin with, would understand the benefits of cashing in their shares. When you see an arrow pointing downward on a stock market index, that is an indication that more shareholders sold than bought. More than likely, should the revalue take place after the ISX opens to the world, that is exactly what you would see. I know, I, for one, would sell my holdings and not even look back. If that takes place, obviously, portfolios lose value and everyone suffers. If portfolios lose value, regardless of how much, it must first regain any loss before any positives in the market can have their full effect...no matter how big the portfolio. It would be a long time before the market would regain its standing for those reasons already mentioned, plus the fact that the "companies" that those stock shares would be representing are located in a part of the world that seems to continually be plagued with political and social unrest. The "world" at large would take years before any "trust" would be strong enough to invest again. Oh, by the way, I'm registered with the NASD.

If each share of your stock is only worth less than a U.S. penny today, that's what it would be worth after a reval tomorrow.

IMO, there won't be any huge profits made in the ISX as the result of a significant reval. They'll just express each stocks value in a lower amount of Dinar or Fils to reflect the Dinar's new strength against the U.S. Dollar.

An investor in the ISX won't lose any portion of their investment. The value of their holdings will stay the same.

What I believe will be the driving forces behind a reval are the desperation of the Iraqi people and action by the U.S. Congress to withhold the support of the U.S. Taxpayers. JMO.

Originally Posted by CROW

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Crow,

Always enjoy your input at the "other" place, and good to see you over here.

Although sometimes your input can be very cryptic :)

Ebay auctions.. most of those people are no different than us, speculating based on the information at hand. Aren't the auctions down because of the speculation with the ISX, etc., just as we are watching this week with anticipation? I would think the Ebayers have no different info than we do. Or, do they?

Originally Posted by bluezzguy

Crow,

Always enjoy your input at the "other" place, and good to see you over here.

Although sometimes your input can be very cryptic :)

Ebay auctions.. most of those people are no different than us, speculating based on the information at hand. Aren't the auctions down because of the speculation with the ISX, etc., just as we are watching this week with anticipation? I would think the Ebayers have no different info than we do. Or, do they?

His point is that there appears to be a decrease in dinar sales on ebay, and that perhaps "people in the know", and some of the larger dealers, are holding their supplies. I suspect that may be true, but only because of the opening of ISX to foreign investors. I think that come Aug 3rd, when its business as usual, the sellers will come back in droves. (IMHO of course, but as usual dreaming for the big overnight RV)