I agree with all but the part in bold. At the current rate of appreciation we would see 1:1 within 2 years.
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Though slow at times they moved the value about 200 points in the first half of the years (plus some of November and December). If no Overnight reval, and taking into consideration the statements about 1000:1, I see them moving to around 1000:1 by the end of the year. From there we are looking at about a 250 point increase every six months though most likely not as a steady increase but as a number of decent jumps. JMO.
:tongue: I didn't do the math...I was just exaggerating. Two years is certainly better than 10.
I was thinking faster slow-grow, as was mentioned in a previous post. That would be a pleasant compromise between the "Big Reval" believers and the "slow grow" believers, wouldn't it? I would greatly enjoy seeing nice big leaps in the exchange rates during the next 6 months to a year. :tongue:
On a math point: you cant say it will fall 'x' points consistently.
Im not good at numbers but going to the bottom of the scale:
Going from 2 iqd = 1 usd to 1 iqd = 1 usd may only be a 1 pip fall. but its a 100% increase.
going from 1249 iqd = 1 usd to 1248 iqd = 1 usd = nothing like 100% increase.
Good point, and thats why the 1249 down to 1000 dinar drop is rather meaningless in the grand scheme. Its the 1000 up to 100:1 rise in value that will spur the greatest speculation, because potential profits will be huge over a short period. If the CBI wants to curb the run on the dinar that belongs to the Iraqi's over the 1000 dinar down to the 100 to a buck run they need the overnight/sharp RV in a big way. Im hoping for a minimum of 10 cents by EOY or else this will have become a crappy investment.
You make some great observations. I believe the term "Slow Grow" scares people that we won't see rather rapid huge profits. Keep in mind this still all depends if the security situation is really reaching a turnaround point AND if the economy continues to upgrade. But Slow Grow IS growth. It IS revaluation because revaluation IS defined as positive movement by a Central Bank of currency exchange rate. (And clearly devaluation would be movements in negative direction). The better term, I suppose, would be Steady Grow. Steady Grow would be positive revaluation and can vary from Slow pace to moderate pace to a quicker (fast) pace. No matter how you term it, this is how all World Nations currencies work!!!
On November 1, 2006 the Auction price of IQD was 1470 IQD to 1 USD. On Jan 8, 2007 the Auction price was 1320 IQD to 1 USD. So in a short 2 month span IQD value rose swifty (Steady Grow) over 100 Dinar!!! Tonight it is at 1246. So don't be adverse to Steady Grow, thus far it's the only theory that has produced any results. http://www.cbiraq.org/C.B.I.%20FOREI...20AUCTIONS.pdf
And this is exactly why we discuss and debate these things!!! The term Slow Grow is tainted in many peoples minds, especially since they've been conditioned for nearly 5 years that an overnight astronomical Re-Val (or as you term it "Big Reval") was just around the corner. Steady Grow GETS US THERE!!!! Rolclub, a beer for you all: :beer::beer: You just made my weekend because we've made what I'd consider a huge step forward!!! :cool:
STEADY GROW RULES!!!!!!!!!!
New motto: Steady Grow IS better than No Grow!!!
I would not dis-agree that slow grow rules, but what do you think about the possibility of the ISX opening in conjunction with a slow grow mindset?
I am having a hard time understanding how the ISX can open to foriegn companies with the rate so low. I know many people who would sink thousands in, and that is a drop in the ocean compared to Big Time Investors ( like Buffet, Trump, etc.)
What is your take munny??