hummn...strange...I did not make a post like this either.....someone is playing games...
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I certainly hope many read your post...it is excellent.
You are dead on! The IMF had made arrangements to facilitate all debt relief via IMF means but Iraq chose a "deal making" path for the debt outside of the Paris Club...their mistake. When Jabr starting putting his fingers in the chili the matter just got worse, until the IMF had enough.
I agree the question still remains..."Is there a rv?"...my vote is still yes and the amount will remain as agreed upon by the CBI and IMF back in Jun 05. Only after a free market float will the dinar reach historic levels, maybe 2-5 years after the initial rv.
Truly great to read your posts again eosirl! You have a keen insight.
My thoughts
I think one of the main points that seems to escape most is that the oil monies will be divided. A portion will go to the people and the rest will go to sustaining a country...not all of it can go to the debt. The reconstruction of the country will be paid for by the ICI donor countries if Iraq meets the benchmarks set by the ICI...if not Iraq will have to foot its own bill. Debt relief is a key component if the CBI intends to rv. Currently the debt is estimated at $50 billion. They are getting closer but not there yet.
My thoughts
Thank you EJAMM,
Always appreciate your posts and your take on things. Even though they don't always make me happy :)
Have seen your posts that it could be October or later before an rv. And, if I understand your previous posts correctly, it's all about debt relief, and not the HCL or the ISX coming online..
Thanks again,
Randy
thanks for all the good work, and especially thanks to all for helping to keep one rumor thread alive and not devolved into infighting or total dumbness.
If you remember the SBA is due to expire in September 07 and has been the only thing allowing Iraq to take advantage of the Paris Club debt relief. The SBA is the guarantee that allowed the Paris Club members to move forward with debt relief. But after the SBA expires then what? IMO the revalue/reversion will not happen before October. However, it is Iraq and anything can happen from day to day.
The HCL will indeed be a great boost to the economy of Iraq but it will still take a little while to get in a groove, so to speak. Also, if Shabibi is smart he'll allow fdi into Iraq for a period of time at the current program exchange rate which would make Iraqs exports a little more tempting which would help solidify the foreign investment before a revalue/reversion.
The ISX, I read somewhere, will be online but not electronic...this would hamper the explosion of investment slightly but the ISX will boom regardless of the exchange rate...IMO. The ISX may be prepared for a rv or may have a contingent plan...I do not have a dog in the ISX fight.
My thoughts
I agree that Iraq has probably the largest reserves in the world! However, that has to help the Iraqis sustain a economy for generations. I read somewhere that the oil production is not going to top 3 mbpd until the end of 2008. So even if they are sitting on the "black gold" they can only realize profits if the oil is sold. They can, however, choose to monetize a portion of the reserves, according to the IMF, to back the currency. Although backing the currency with oil reserves still doesn't pay off the debt.
My thoughts
it didnt seem like your usual tenor which is why it confused me. i am not offended by insults and bashers dont bother me. i will always express my opinions...im not here to win a popularity contest. i believe my views are supported by the facts as i know them. my research is more macro than micro.
my point exactly.
what many believe is the news we are getting out of iraq is actually taking place now. if youve noticed the articles that are being posted are ones from last week re-written to appear as new. there is no news being reported out of iraq currently that is new as maliki has put a hault on the media. its like a reel to reel tape being looped.
there are things taking place on the ground in iraq currently that are ensuring security. as soon as they get the adequate security in place we are going to see our economic recovery plan begin to be implemented. it is alot closer than you will ever imagine.
the rate remains $3.45 as this is shabibis baby.
I imagined it as close as a year ago. Then in January. Then obviously in April just like I think 90% of ROL. Even a few weeks ago seemed really promising. I've been "invested" and researching, reading, learning for about a year and thats nothing compared to some of ya. IMO, however, I have swayed from the huge overnighter to the seemingly more likely 2-3 year pay out. If I'm wrong wooooo, but I don't think I'll be holding my breath waiting for the magical weekends to come anymore.
As much as I would like to see the dinar jump to $3 it is an economic impossibility...at least in the near term. Besides, Shabibi would be a fool to revert the dinar to $3 immediately, he is not dumb and would weed out speculators by first pegging the currency to the Euro or the USD at a rate of 1:1. After a period of time he would float the currency or move to a basket like Kuwait allowing for the dinar to rise to the historic levels capable of an oil rich country. Iraq is not yet ready to stand on a $3 dinar economy...there is much more to it than just purchasing power.
My thoughts
Thanks shotgunsusie, I needed your positive post to pick me up a little. I hope it all comes about soon for all our sakes.
SGS, you've made some bold statements and taken a lot of heat over the years (yeah years!!) that we've been in this and I just want to say I admire and am thankful for your determination. You've provided the strength of conviction that has provided many of us with the day to day optimism we have needed to remain determined ourselves. I call that leadership. It doesn't matter to me that dates have come and gone. I know, as you do, that this will pay off in a big way for those that have the foresight to stay in. Leaders who are consistent but willing to admit mistakes are the best kind and that's how you have conducted yourself. I'm thankful for your work and although you're not the only one pulling in the research and I'm thankful to all who do you do stand out in the crowd as one who's willing to shout loud and defend your position. For those of us standing at the back of the crowd it's the loud shouting that gets heard. We're shouting with ya Susie! Just want you to know that. :woohoo:
I have read that at present the GOI, can back a RV up to $6. USD with existing gold & other assets without touching their oil reserves. Crunch the numbers here. For every 1M USD spent on building and other supplies now, after the RV (if even at a 1:1 rate) they will have over paid by $1.249 Billion. It goes to reason the sooner the RV and the higher the RV rate (3.26, 3.45, or even 5.26) the better it is for the Iraqi people, the GOI, and the Iraqi Banking system.
DesertWolf
Did I mention us too?
I for one feel that this is a positive attitude toward this investment. I have seen as well as myself from time to time that it is easy to get off track or lose sight of the big picture. I feel that most of our glasses are half full and soon to be overflowing. Sure it's easy to get down but a positive outlook here or in life in general will make these long days go buy much better. No matter what it comes out at or when we are all still here and just waitin.
My two cents.:wacko::wacko:
Heck, I would love a 1:1 to start. That would be my wildest dream come true.
Well I do have to hand it to you...you certainly dream big. Unfortunately your dream is unattainable...for now. The logistics for a revalue is chaotic enough without pressuring the economy to the upper limits right from the start. I seriously doubt that the Iraqis have enough to revalue their currency to $6 nor would the CBI and Shabibi be willing to take such a risk. As shotgunsusie stated earlier..."we shall see" .
Happy dreaming.
My thoughts
I would think i had died and gone to heaven with a $5.26:1 ratio, Most of all I would then be set for the rest of my life. YA Got to love the imaginative post here. BOB
A few years back we rented one movie and found out that when we got home that it was the wrong movie. The movie was called “Waking Ned Devine.” In short it was the story about the little Irish town of Tully Moor where one person dies from shock (May I add with a S*** eating grin) when he finds out that he has won the Lottery and how the town folk try to clam the winnings. A GREAT movie with a surprising ending!
So my point being, just how many emergency rooms will be filled with IQD investors when the IQD is RV at or over $5.2631 USD? One thing is for sure, they will be able to pay the bill! :woohoo:
DesertWolf
woooooooooot!!
I'll take 5.26 any day!!!
There's as much chance of pigs flying around the world in 80 days that this rate of $3.45 coming to fruition. Sorry to burst the bubble but currency does not fluctuate in such a manner. It is an economic impossibility to go from 1250 dinars to a dollar to 1 dinar equates to over 3 dollars. In time yes...but definitely not in the forseeable future.
A lot of people are discounting the debt issue here...the third and final chunk won't be relieved until the end of Dec 2008 according to an IMF report.
.001252
look, just reporting what im hearing. shabibi set the rate at $3.45 to be on par with kuwait then kuwait raised theirs slightly. but the word is the rate remains at $3.45. i dont have to agree with a darn thing i report on, i tell everyone what i hear.
im not one to beat around the bush about what my beliefs are on the other hand.:cool:
Hope so, The other side has an article about the GOI about to fall apart because the PM missed the June 30th deadline but as has been posted could just be spin who knows anymore oh well will continue to rob peter to pay paul until it hits (As im still sure it will)