Hey Desertwolf,
Would you care to expound on the idea from your post that I have highlighted in red? Exactly how would that work? I don't believe I have heard that theory before. Thanks.
TT
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TT,
Lets set up a sample RV of the ID at $1.00 USD per 1 ID. This would freeze for one year the amount that the set price could rise/lower for one year. A low of $.96 to a high of $1.04. For myself I don’t like any kind of freeze of this kind.
DesertWolf
Congrats on the 35..you must have a good one. If I add up all three I will have 21 years. It took me awhile to find a good one......I am keeping this one, she works for a lawyer....they give free divorces away to their employees as a fringe benefit. She would probably clean my clock..:fryingpan
If the RV is in June-07, we ALL win, just most of us in the pool (if no RV, no money paid out) will be $500. shorter. Small price to pay for a June RV!
DesertWolf
As I have maintained a few times before, the RV started a few months back. To see the rate we are all expecting to see in the form of an overnight RV, it will be at least middle of 2008 or late 2008 even. I've picked the following thoughts from someone else as I wish I could express the opinions in such a pragmatic manner!Quote:
Oil in the ground and an RV have nothing to do with each other. The ISX and an RV have nothing to do with each other. The thought that an overnight RV will make everything better without anything to back the RV is not valid. An overnight RV of $.01 USD would most likely bankrupt the country at this moment, cause high inflation, and of course, a run on the CBI with speculators cashing out. The ISX will open to foreign investment without an RV. In the U.S.A., there have always been penny stocks but that didn't mean that those companies could be bought for pennies. In all actuality, the stocks you hold right now will NEVER be at these prices again. What we look at as 1/10 of a penny stocks will soon be trading at nickels, dimes, quarters, and eventually dollars. These companies did not put ALL of their stocks up for sale. Each company or bank has millions and millions of shares in their possession which will go up in value with your shares. This is nothing new - Vietnam and Zimbabwe both had stock markets that started like this, both have currencies with horrible exchange rates (Vietnam undervalued), and yet, their stock markets opened to foreign investors without a RV. With all the prosperity Vietnam has had with their stock market (and economy), they have still NOT had any RV - why, because in their own words - they are trying to keep a tight grip on inflation.
As I have maintained a few times before, the RV started a few months back. To see the rate we are all expecting to see in the form of an overnight RV, it will be at least middle of 2008 or late 2008 even. I've picked the following thoughts from someone else as I wish I could express the opinions in such a pragmatic manner!
Quote:
Oil in the ground and an RV have nothing to do with each other. The ISX and an RV have nothing to do with each other. The thought that an overnight RV will make everything better without anything to back the RV is not valid. An overnight RV of $.01 USD would most likely bankrupt the country at this moment, cause high inflation, and of course, a run on the CBI with speculators cashing out. The ISX will open to foreign investment without an RV. In the U.S.A., there have always been penny stocks but that didn't mean that those companies could be bought for pennies. In all actuality, the stocks you hold right now will NEVER be at these prices again. What we look at as 1/10 of a penny stocks will soon be trading at nickels, dimes, quarters, and eventually dollars. These companies did not put ALL of their stocks up for sale. Each company or bank has millions and millions of shares in their possession which will go up in value with your shares. This is nothing new - Vietnam and Zimbabwe both had stock markets that started like this, both have currencies with horrible exchange rates (Vietnam undervalued), and yet, their stock markets opened to foreign investors without a RV. With all the prosperity Vietnam has had with their stock market (and economy), they have still NOT had any RV - why, because in their own words - they are trying to keep a tight grip on inflation.
I would like so more input on this please.
This scenario has occurred to me before. What about the other countries that have a very low exchange rate and are still able to have an open stock exchange w/o being bought up by foreign investors?
How is Iraq different?
The goal of returning to previous value by 2010 and the goal of 1260:1 already being reached and the 1000:1 goal keep coming back to me. Could they possibly be on the up and up with these statements?
If anyone could refute the above quote it would be very welcome. I know this has been rehashed again and again, but what will once more hurt?
I do trust those on this forum who are way more knowledgeable than myself,(which is just about everyone here) but am in need of more encouragement for a soon to come rv. I love the rumors, but facts sure are nice and reassuring.
Yeah, well, unfortunately NO ONE knows anything for certain, so guess and wish all you like...over think this whole goofy process till you are blue in the face if you like. It just doesn't matter. Even the smartest, most experienced currency investor/speculators will tell you...NO ONE KNOWS...most likely includes the GoI too!
As for the re-Val and some more encouragement, I know exactly what you mean. I would love some too. Anyone? Bueller? It seems reasonable that they need to do something REAL soon. I like the idea that there are threats of possible strikes! People telling the GoI to snap snap is reassuring.
Here's a thought though...
If the 11+ trillion that has been bought back at the daily auctions is REALLY and FOR CERTAIN being taken OUT OF CIRCULATION, then in my mind an reval is for sure and imminent (soon). The "taken out of circulation" part is key here. If that is happening AND they are making all these financial promises...pension law, raises, etc... a reval MUST happen. Also, I think that if they did not intend to have a sudden reval, they would just LOP the dinar and be done with it. So, if they are actually removing the auction purchased dinar from CIRCULATION, a LOP is not conceivable. Just my take.
:cool:makes sense to me.
As soon as the HCL is passed. But not any sooner...
Ok here is my take for better or worse:
As for as the ISX well I cannot answer but as for the low exchange rate well that's another issue.
Well I would have to conclude that someone forgot to inform to MOF of IRAQ on this ideology, since he publicly states the contrary [concernning the low exchange rate].
This notion is opposed to the IMF article IV tenets of fairness in exchange rates. Such a rate would destroy the economies of Iraq's neighbors and further fuel insurgent activity in the region.
Plus you cannot compare Vietnam to Iraq at all. Vietnam wants a weak currency for reasons as cited however an oil producer has not the same limitations. Iraq's commodity has no competition. Iraq is a 95% oil export economy. The world needs it and will pay the price whatever it is... this why all oil producers in the ME have expensive currencies [Saudi has a different monetary system than the other oil producers and Iran is a highly sanctioned economy]
All thousand fil monetary systems are over a $1.40 except for Iraq who is still under the program rate. As most already know this rate was established for the purpose of monitoring the current program in Iraq.
This is why announcement by the IMF of article IV discussions [end of April/ mid May] is so exciting since it mentioned the ending of the said Program. Ending the program also means ending the rate to monitor it. Very exciting.
I've said it before Iraq in the mid eighties $14.00/ barrel oil supported a currency of over $3.00. Even though today the amount of oil produced is a million barrels a day less than back then the price of oil is 2.5 times greater in real dollars therefore the monies gained is greater now than back then....oil in the ground and price per barrel have a lot to do with it. In fact the IMF has a listing of commodities on a form for supporting a currency that includes [gee who would have guessed it] OIL. Like I've said, interesting factual oddities...
Time will tell
Thanks to all those who are turning this into a great discussion. I take the liberty to borrow this line from someone else as well, "They do not have enough money to back a significant RV and "oil in the ground"will never be exactly the same as "money in the bank"
don't forget the new estimates of natural gas!:biggrin:
QUOTE: Bubba Dinar
Prediction:... No Revaluation!!..Will Return to Official Rate of $3.22.. No 85% Agreement of IMF members needed!!! JMHO
I have a question. How do they return to $3.22 without a revaluation? The 2 statements "No Revaluation" and "Will Return of Official Rate of $3.22" seem to contradict each other.
Ok simple is simple.......
Before the war it was 3.22...(yes inflated by Saddam blah blah blah really was valued at 1.40 blah blah blah or something like that.)
War hit...the changed the value overnight. Just like a light-switch. (click)
There is no real reason why they can't just revert back. Just like a light-switch. (click)
We can all contemplate on how it's going to go at nauseum...let's just hope they are just going to revert back to a rate that will get their economy FULLY on track with the rest of the world and in turn help their people and benefit those of us holding the currency. Just ma'2-cents...BEEP BEEP.
JMHO i think this means rv is just simantics,the dinar value will return to what it used to be. the reasoning being that as long as it is only good in iraq 1260 or 1470 will do but iraq will not open to the world at less than what they had.
my interpritation anyway.:cool:
Can’t buy into this doom & gloom about the RV of the ID. Remember the Kuwaiti Dinar RV. It’s been a long time ago, but I remember it coming in at about a $1.22 and rallied over $8+ USD before settling down to its current day prices.
The ID was I think about $3.44 before we went in. It stands to reason with the military finding the gold and money caches and other hidden holdings with added oil revenues I can’t see a RV of only pennies of the dollar view of all this. Iraq has more to lose by holding off for much longer. JMHO…
DesertWolf
dESERTWOLF, is your siggy, the fat lady singing?
His siggy looks like a sign of satisfaction after having some Dong (Vietnam of course)
Sorry, but I’ve been out of Vitamin E for a long time…
However, the rally lasted only a short week or two before it did a nosedive from the high end. My trusted friend made over $75M before taxes and I’ve haven’t heard a word from him since then.
This time through, I’m invested and be damn with the doom & gloom guys because this time through I’m NOT listening to them like before.
DesertWolf
Wonderful,
Nice to see a friendly upbeat thread on issue of revalue finally. Even with a couple newbies, it has been very respectful, so I just wanted to thank our new posters for joining in with their valued opinions.
We may not all agree, but it is always interesting to see opposing views. A reprint is not only not practical, there is no valid reason for it, but in time, yes, a shift in values will dictate when, so seeing a reprint of smaller denoms replacing the larger would be welcome by us all. (g)
So much has happened in the past couple years, and although there is much to do, nothing that I see would stand in the way of a restoration to former levels, so reverse analyzation serves me well. lol I tend to look at things differently than most, looking for the reasons why a revalue would not happen, and I just cannot find a single reason to stand in the way. Nothing of any substance comes up in my research, so it looks good to me.
Thans again for keeping this new thread on the upbeat and positive side, and thanks for maintaining the respect of all, regardless of position or opinion, it has been a refreshing read.
Good luck and health to all, Mike
just maybe getting to the bank as fast as possible,just might be a little short sighted. i got less than 1mil dinar so ineed to make the most of it.
thanks for this new twist to consider!:bow:
Mining Companies, Oil Companies, Farmers and everyone else in the World can use Mining Reserves, Oil Reserves, Land, or any other un-developed asset as "Reserves". Since Iraq will "Book" any New Reserves found since they own the Land and the Mineral Rights to the Oil or Natural Gas, Iraq can use the Reserves as assets. Not the Oil Companies since they cannot "Book" the Reserves as their Asset... JMHO
I worked in the oil field and if oil was not money in the bank I would not have had a job for them 18 years. Yes oil in the ground is like money in the bank and in Iraq it is less costly to get it out of the ground. There is more of it and a lot less of a pain to get out of the ground. I could go on about how oil companys know it is money in the bank or they would not explore and drill for it.. JMHO:woohoo::wigged::nunu: Bill
I agee with you!! Iraq owns the Oil Property, the Oil Produced and the Mineral Rights to such oil in the ground. Iraq can "Book" the new Reserves, and not the Oil Companies. Therefore, Oil is an Appreciating Asset, can be used as a backstop for their Currency... JMHO
Remember...
"Black Gold" "Texas T" :woohoo:
DesertWolf