:cool:makes sense to me.
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:cool:makes sense to me.
As soon as the HCL is passed. But not any sooner...
Ok here is my take for better or worse:
As for as the ISX well I cannot answer but as for the low exchange rate well that's another issue.
Well I would have to conclude that someone forgot to inform to MOF of IRAQ on this ideology, since he publicly states the contrary [concernning the low exchange rate].
This notion is opposed to the IMF article IV tenets of fairness in exchange rates. Such a rate would destroy the economies of Iraq's neighbors and further fuel insurgent activity in the region.
Plus you cannot compare Vietnam to Iraq at all. Vietnam wants a weak currency for reasons as cited however an oil producer has not the same limitations. Iraq's commodity has no competition. Iraq is a 95% oil export economy. The world needs it and will pay the price whatever it is... this why all oil producers in the ME have expensive currencies [Saudi has a different monetary system than the other oil producers and Iran is a highly sanctioned economy]
All thousand fil monetary systems are over a $1.40 except for Iraq who is still under the program rate. As most already know this rate was established for the purpose of monitoring the current program in Iraq.
This is why announcement by the IMF of article IV discussions [end of April/ mid May] is so exciting since it mentioned the ending of the said Program. Ending the program also means ending the rate to monitor it. Very exciting.
I've said it before Iraq in the mid eighties $14.00/ barrel oil supported a currency of over $3.00. Even though today the amount of oil produced is a million barrels a day less than back then the price of oil is 2.5 times greater in real dollars therefore the monies gained is greater now than back then....oil in the ground and price per barrel have a lot to do with it. In fact the IMF has a listing of commodities on a form for supporting a currency that includes [gee who would have guessed it] OIL. Like I've said, interesting factual oddities...
Time will tell
Thanks to all those who are turning this into a great discussion. I take the liberty to borrow this line from someone else as well, "They do not have enough money to back a significant RV and "oil in the ground"will never be exactly the same as "money in the bank"
don't forget the new estimates of natural gas!:biggrin:
QUOTE: Bubba Dinar
Prediction:... No Revaluation!!..Will Return to Official Rate of $3.22.. No 85% Agreement of IMF members needed!!! JMHO
I have a question. How do they return to $3.22 without a revaluation? The 2 statements "No Revaluation" and "Will Return of Official Rate of $3.22" seem to contradict each other.