Slow growth vs overnight RV

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05-06-2007, 05:13 AM
ChiefWealth53

Slow growth vs overnight RV

I was talking to a friend/acquaintence tonight about the future of dinar. He was very excited about and began talking about all the positives that are occurring. However, his take was that with laws passed and oil companies coming in, that we would begin to see an increase in value of the dinar, "in 90 days" & "we could possibly see a value of 50-75 cents in a year". My enthusiam was dampered just a bit as talk of an overnight RV has had me about to bust through my skin.

So what do you think? Will we really see an overnight RV or are we destined for slow growth over 1-2 years? All pros and cons of both models are welcome.
05-06-2007, 05:57 AM
RetMil

If someone told me that my dinar would be worth $.50 in a year, I would be a very happy camper. I would take that in a NY second.
05-06-2007, 06:14 AM
im1vestr

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefWealth53

I was talking to a friend/acquaintence tonight about the future of dinar. He was very excited about and began talking about all the positives that are occurring. However, his take was that with laws passed and oil companies coming in, that we would begin to see an increase in value of the dinar, "in 90 days" & "we could possibly see a value of 50-75 cents in a year". My enthusiam was dampered just a bit as talk of an overnight RV has had me about to bust through my skin.

So what do you think? Will we really see an overnight RV or are we destined for slow growth over 1-2 years? All pros and cons of both models are welcome.

Chief, As much as I would like an overnite RV, I am starting to believe that it will be a slower RV. I think your friend is right on. As security gets better and the fighting comes to a halt. I think with the HCL about to be passed the oil companies will move in in a greater number and oil productiion will skyrocket a lot more than the estimates plus the ISX will do great and as the markets see that the dinar will start making daily big tick moves. Hope for the quick but be bepaired to ride it out.
05-06-2007, 06:38 AM
Cdn Scrooge

I have read many posts by those that sincerely believe in the slow grow theory and have presented their reasons for thinking that way. I can understand that you honestly believe it. However, personally I don't. I cannot see how the Iraqi government is going to solve the unemployment and poverty of a high percentage of the population without a massive program of capital spending on the oil, manufacturing, and agricultural industries. They don't have enough cash in their coffers to do this by themselves. And the buying power of the dinar is too low to allow them to import all the materials and expertise they need to get this rolling. In my opinion the only choice they have to solve this mess is a revaluation of their currency to a figure at least equal to the USD and to allow foreign investment in their capital markets. They need a fiat currency just like most of the rest of the world. Unlike most of the world they have substantial assets to back up the fiat currency, primarily oil. Slow grow will take too long. I have made this comment before in the news thread but it didn't get much response.

Take care all. In my opinion we are definitely nearing the end of this roller coaster ride.
05-06-2007, 07:08 AM
mike brown

must we start this same topic every month?/////
05-06-2007, 07:24 AM
celilo

ChiefWealth53, I was a slow grow via float advocate from the beginning, but lean toward an RV of some amount at this point. Just thinking that they dilly dallied to long and that they will need a jump start of sorts at this point, a confidence builder for the Iraqi people.
05-06-2007, 07:25 AM
celilo

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike brown

must we start this same topic every month?/////

Why not? It's still a valid question.
05-06-2007, 07:32 AM
Raditz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cdn Scrooge

I have read many posts by those that sincerely believe in the slow grow theory and have presented their reasons for thinking that way. I can understand that you honestly believe it. However, personally I don't. I cannot see how the Iraqi government is going to solve the unemployment and poverty of a high percentage of the population without a massive program of capital spending on the oil, manufacturing, and agricultural industries. They don't have enough cash in their coffers to do this by themselves. And the buying power of the dinar is too low to allow them to import all the materials and expertise they need to get this rolling. In my opinion the only choice they have to solve this mess is a revaluation of their currency to a figure at least equal to the USD and to allow foreign investment in their capital markets. They need a fiat currency just like most of the rest of the world. Unlike most of the world they have substantial assets to back up the fiat currency, primarily oil. Slow grow will take too long. I have made this comment before in the news thread but it didn't get much response.

Take care all. In my opinion we are definitely nearing the end of this roller coaster ride.

I missed the last time you posted this Scrooge!
But what you just posted is what its really about.

Thank you for you informative post and the knowledge you bring to this forum!

Cheers
05-06-2007, 08:15 AM
Heres-Hoping

This seems to be the $64,000 question. However, I don't think that there is a thing called an overnight RV as this investment has been going on for 3+ years with many members who have been in it since day one. So IMO, if they Rved tomorrow, this would not be classed as an overnight RV. I guess it depends on the date you base the question on.
05-06-2007, 08:20 AM
breakeven

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heres-Hoping

This seems to be the $64,000 question. However, I don't think that there is a thing called an overnight RV as this investment has been going on for 3+ years with many members who have been in it for so many years. So IMO, if they Rved tomorrow, this would not be classed as an overnight RV. So it depends on the date you base the question on.

Agree with you completely. The RV started a few months ago and will continue in the same vein for months to come. If the overnight RV had to happen, it would have happened by now given the economic plight of Iraq. The fact that it hasn't denotes a slow approach by Iraq. I also do not agree with the notion that the Iraq is running out of time. The officials really do not care about the citizens...they are too preoccupied with egos the size of oil rigs and petty politics.
05-06-2007, 08:44 AM
Cdn Scrooge

Quote:

Originally Posted by breakeven

Agree with you completely. The RV started a few months ago and will continue in the same vein for months to come. If the overnight RV had to happen, it would have happened by now given the economic plight of Iraq. The fact that it hasn't denotes a slow approach by Iraq. I also do not agree with the notion that the Iraq is running out of time. The officials really do not care about the citizens...they are too preoccupied with egos the size of oil rigs and petty politics.

I agree that up to now the parliament as a whole has not seemed to be in any hurry to aleviate the plight of their people. However, from some of the articles I have seen in the think tank thread lately, it appears that there are some politicians who seem to be fed up with the stalling and delaying and are talking about a "coup" of sorts (for lack of a better word) and there appears to be some sort of massive shake-up expected (by some anyway). We will just have to wait a little longer to see how that part of the scenario plays out. In any event if I remember correctly there is an election due later this year in Iraq. The fall if I remember correctly. Maybe if we haven't had any significant improvement in their economy by then the people themselves may vote in a new bunch to see if things can get moving.

As an example of the type of article I was refrring to here is a copy of one that was posted (#425) in the news thread earlier tonight:

15 deputies Sunnis would announce tomorrow the formation of a new bloc nominated moderation and wisdom rather than sectarian polarization and extremism in the Accord Front and dialogue

Mohsen Gabri - 06/04/2007 - 21:21 |

Informed sources expect a representative to witness tomorrow the formation of a new parliamentary bloc of Menslekh Accord Front, dialogue, reconciliation and liberation, The sources said that the Front, which is led by MP Abdel-Jabouri were to come are the polarities of sectarianism, which is front and dialogue on the one hand to assist in finding practical solutions to citizens instead of through obstruction rushed Accord Front of conduct in their dealings with government and the political process. the sources expected that the new bloc comprises 15 deputies, and was expected to be a solid springboard for the emergence of the new line of moderation and reason after missing heroic odes sectarians and the Baathists who controlled the Sunni street.

Pratha News Agency (father)
05-06-2007, 08:55 AM
breakeven

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cdn Scrooge

I agree that up to now the parliament as a whole has not seemed to be in any hurry to aleviate the plight of their people. However, from some of the articles I have seen in the think tank thread lately, it appears that there are some politicians who seem to be fed up with the stalling and delaying and are talking about a "coup" of sorts (for lack of a better word) and there appears to be some sort of massive shake-up expected (by some anyway). We will just have to wait a little longer to see how that part of the scenario plays out. In any event if I remember correctly there is an election due later this year in Iraq. The fall if I remember correctly. Maybe if we haven't had any significant improvement in their economy by then the people themselves may vote in a new bunch to see if things can get moving.

As an example of the type of article I was refrring to here is a copy of one that was posted (#425) in the news thread earlier tonight:

15 deputies Sunnis would announce tomorrow the formation of a new bloc nominated moderation and wisdom rather than sectarian polarization and extremism in the Accord Front and dialogue

Mohsen Gabri - 06/04/2007 - 21:21 |

Informed sources expect a representative to witness tomorrow the formation of a new parliamentary bloc of Menslekh Accord Front, dialogue, reconciliation and liberation, The sources said that the Front, which is led by MP Abdel-Jabouri were to come are the polarities of sectarianism, which is front and dialogue on the one hand to assist in finding practical solutions to citizens instead of through obstruction rushed Accord Front of conduct in their dealings with government and the political process. the sources expected that the new bloc comprises 15 deputies, and was expected to be a solid springboard for the emergence of the new line of moderation and reason after missing heroic odes sectarians and the Baathists who controlled the Sunni street.

Pratha News Agency (father)

Excellent post! This is what I am meant by expressing my gratitude in the Gratitude thread for those who bring such articles to the table. Thanks.

If there indeed a change at the helm, one hopes that they wouldn't take as long as this one to settle down and sort out the internal wranglings.
05-06-2007, 09:01 AM
Cdn Scrooge

Quote:

Originally Posted by breakeven

Excellent post! This is what I am meant by expressing my gratitude in the Gratitude thread for those who bring such articles to the table. Thanks.

If there indeed a change at the helm, one hopes that they wouldn't take as long as this one to settle down and sort out the internal wranglings.

I agree, we can only hope. But I read this in the light that there is at least some who have seen the light and realize that the petty wrangling over sectarian issues is never going to solve their problems.

Anyway, it was refreshing to discuss this in a calm and rational manner, but I work 2 days a week and tomorrow is one of them so I am off to bed.

I will check in tomorrow to see what other posts appear in this thread. Hopefully it will continue on this constructive manner.
05-06-2007, 03:00 PM
odus1000

reshuffle??

You know what they say about
" Too many Chiefs and not enough Indians ":wacko:

Well, gotta get back to the Hogan now and sweep the dirt floor,
clear out the cobwebs and make fry bread............:fryingpan

All the big Chiefs are having a card game tonight........
:thumbsup::thumbsup:
05-06-2007, 03:08 PM
mike brown

Quote:

Originally Posted by celilo

Why not? It's still a valid question.

i absolutely agree, but a why start a whole new thread? just makes it more confusing for the dinar noobies..
05-06-2007, 03:44 PM
jpadrino

Quote:

Originally Posted by mike brown

must we start this same topic every month?/////

Thanks, Mike!
05-06-2007, 04:38 PM
ChiefWealth53

Quote:
Originally Posted by wciappetta http://www.rolclub.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Clearly we are in a short holding pattern....Yesterday we read the HCL is only weeks away and they must RV before the HCL is passed or they will loose billions. We might be within days of our dream. Don't let them wear you out. But I agree there was never a slow growth plan, perhaps an adjustment period to counter inflation or to demonstrate to the IMF the ability to counter inflation, but never a slow growth scenario.

Thanks for this info.
05-06-2007, 04:45 PM
crave681

semantics

Quote:

Originally Posted by breakeven

Agree with you completely. The RV started a few months ago and will continue in the same vein for months to come. If the overnight RV had to happen, it would have happened by now given the economic plight of Iraq. The fact that it hasn't denotes a slow approach by Iraq. I also do not agree with the notion that the Iraq is running out of time. The officials really do not care about the citizens...they are too preoccupied with egos the size of oil rigs and petty politics.

call it a bold adjustment then. so now instead of rv we will say ba ! :party:
the fact that it hasnt does not necessarily denote a slow approach, it could mean that all the ducks arent lined up yet... h20Lover! can you lend a wing in this regard please? quack quack
-the hovering at 1260 is weird too.
05-06-2007, 05:05 PM
Caddieman

This thing has been RVing since the last quarter of 2006 and it is still going on! I have always said it would be a slow RV. As laws get passed and security come under control we will see it drop farther. How soon all this happens is in the air. The faster it happens the faster the RV. This thing might RV for 5 or 10 more years! But if you believe this you are not very welcome here. You know "neysayer" "go back to the dark side" "Negative Nelly" No way will it RV in one day. People here just can't except that. But I will tell you this, each and every day the "Negative Nelly's" are been proved right, much to the chagrin of the overnight RV people!
05-06-2007, 05:08 PM
danny51

Quote:

Originally Posted by breakeven

Agree with you completely. The RV started a few months ago and will continue in the same vein for months to come. If the overnight RV had to happen, it would have happened by now given the economic plight of Iraq. The fact that it hasn't denotes a slow approach by Iraq. I also do not agree with the notion that the Iraq is running out of time. The officials really do not care about the citizens...they are too preoccupied with egos the size of oil rigs and petty politics.

I totally agree with the fact that the illiterate, corrupt and lazy officials don't give a hoot about the regular citizens. :nunu:
05-06-2007, 05:33 PM
ChiefWealth53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caddieman

This thing has been RVing since the last quarter of 2006 and it is still going on! I have always said it would be a slow RV. As laws get passed and security come under control we will see it drop farther. How soon all this happens is in the air. The faster it happens the faster the RV. This thing might RV for 5 or 10 more years! But if you believe this you are not very welcome here. You know "neysayer" "go back to the dark side" "Negative Nelly" No way will it RV in one day. People here just can't except that. But I will tell you this, each and every day the "Negative Nelly's" are been proved right, much to the chagrin of the overnight RV people!

They are proven right "until" an overnight RV occurs.
05-06-2007, 05:41 PM
Caddieman

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiefWealth53

They are proven right "until" an overnight RV occurs.

Exactly! I hope each and every day I am wrong:wink: But each and every day I have been right:eek: I hate it when I am right! lol
05-06-2007, 06:02 PM
apwerner

Quote:

Originally Posted by crave681

call it a bold adjustment then. so now instead of rv we will say ba ! :party:
the fact that it hasnt does not necessarily denote a slow approach, it could mean that all the ducks arent lined up yet... h20Lover! can you lend a wing in this regard please? quack quack
-the hovering at 1260 is weird too.

I'm glad you said something about the 1260 hovering.

One day it's 1260, then 1259, 1260....back and forth. I think I'm getting depressed - it's not going up OR down. :sads: :sads:

Can anybody give this inexperienced investor a clue? ...or maybe nobody knows.
05-06-2007, 06:20 PM
Admin

Quote:

Originally Posted by apwerner

I'm glad you said something about the 1260 hovering.

One day it's 1260, then 1259, 1260....back and forth. I think I'm getting depressed - it's not going up OR down. :sads: :sads:

Can anybody give this inexperienced investor a clue? ...or maybe nobody knows.

Depends on several things. Stability to be one. Economy to be second. etc etc.. Dont worry. We have come all the way from value of dinar beeing
$1=4000 IDQ to 1$=1260 today.. It can take some time...
Some early birds in this investment have alredy made over 75% on their investments in IQD since the lauch of the new dinars...

This is a slow process, and can take a lot of time..I hope i am wrong..

Regards
admin
05-06-2007, 06:46 PM
Admin

Hard measures taken for harder times...

Next person to track of from any topics posted in any thread deliberately, making the threads end up in a caos, will be subject to a BAN, by me....!!

This is a lasting warning, and will not be over now, in one week or a month.. I don't want to ban anyone, from anywhere so please do not force me to do so in your posting. Rolclub is and will stay a place were people can discuss things in a peaceful manner. I agree to have seen some high amplitudes from members in the past. But that will now change for better.

A steam blower thread is posted here: I suggest that if you have some steam to blow you come to this thread only:

http://www.rolclub.com/iraqi-dinar-d...team-here.html

Regards
admin
05-06-2007, 07:39 PM
costar01

Quote:

Originally Posted by danny51

I totally agree with the fact that the illiterate, corrupt and lazy officials don't give a hoot about the regular citizens. :nunu:

Sound like USA Officials, doesn't it. Greed is a bad thing but it is always a part of anything that happens.:yak:
05-06-2007, 08:00 PM
bigopie

Quote:

Originally Posted by costar01

Sound like USA Officials, doesn't it. Greed is a bad thing but it is always a part of anything that happens.:yak:

it does sound a lot like our[USA] government...but the BIG difference is it is not Iraq sending its young men and women to fight and die and BILLIONS of their tax payers money over here to the USA...its OUR[taxpayers money] going over there and our young men and women dieing....i think everyone of us on this forum agrees that a revel would do wonders for Iraq and their people....so all this HAGGLING and inside fighting that this[IRAQI GOVERNMENT] is doing isn't in the best interest of their people is it....and these people are well paid for what they are ""SUPPOSED"" to be doing for ""THEIR"" people....the longer they take for the good ole USA to fight for them,the longer they will take to make up their minds.....because it seems they can TALK a good fight,but they can't get anything done....and still,their people suffer.....REVEL....its like ROLAIDS....it spells...RELIEF.....for their people and their country......and still...they haggle and delay.....while our young men and women die and our money pays...that IMHO is the difference between our government[CORRUPT and ILLITERATE] and their government....IMHO...Pat
05-06-2007, 09:16 PM
ChiefWealth53

I know this article is about the dong but look at the date. This could have something to do with what some have theorized, that the dong and dinar will RV at the same time.

http://www.rolclub.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Guess who's coming to dinner?
Vietnam President to visit U.S. on June 22

By Grant McCool | June 4, 2007
HANOI (Reuters) - President Nguyen Minh Triet will visit U.S. President George W. Bush in the White House on June 22 at a time when Washington is applying pressure on Vietnam over the trials and jailing of political activists.
A U.S. Embassy official said on Monday that a formal invitation has been made to Triet, who will be the first Vietnamese head of state to visit Washington since the end of the U.S. war in Vietnam in 1975.
The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1995 and friendly ties are largely founded on trade and business.
"The White House meeting will take place on June 22," the embassy official said.
Triet, who is expected to be greeted by protests in support of Vietnam's tiny dissident community, is making the trip to reciprocate Bush's state visit to the communist-run country last November around the time of an Asia-Pacific summit in Hanoi.
The relationship between the former enemies has matured in the last 12 years to encompass trade and business, military ties, education and fighting diseases such as HIV/AIDS and bird flu.
"I believe there is a recognition on both sides that individual events should not be an obstacle to continued dialogue aimed at strengthening ties," said Tom Vallely, head of the Vietnam program at the Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
The United States, along with the European Union, has condemned a series of trials since March in which at least seven proponents of a multi-party system were jailed for between three and eight years.
Western governments have also called for their release and the release of other dissidents opposed to one-party rule.
Last week, Bush met Vietnamese-American supporters of the dissidents at the White House.
The Vietnamese President is also expected to visit New York and Los Angeles, diplomatic sources said. His entourage will include representatives of Vietnam business.
Among the issues to be discussed are efforts to clean up so-called "hot spots" of dioxin, commonly known as "agent orange" from three former American wartime air bases.
"This issue is important and we are pleased that we are having more ongoing conversations about that," a U.S. Embassy official said.
The issue has long been sensitive in the relationship, but last year Hanoi and Washington set a new tone in discussing it.
However, a Vietnamese victims group has pursued a lawsuit against U.S. chemical manufacturers. Coincidentally, a hearing in the case is scheduled for June 18 in New York while Triet is in the United States.
Dioxin is a small compound within the "agent orange" herbicide that the Americans used to defoliate the jungles where communist troops were based, but it is one of the most toxic compounds known, scientists say. http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/F...y_end_icon.gif

Vietnam President to visit U.S. on June 22 - Boston.com
__________________
05-06-2007, 11:12 PM
apwerner

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admin

Depends on several things. Stability to be one. Economy to be second. etc etc.. Dont worry. We have come all the way from value of dinar beeing
$1=4000 IDQ to 1$=1260 today.. It can take some time...
Some early birds in this investment have alredy made over 75% on their investments in IQD since the lauch of the new dinars...

This is a slow process, and can take a lot of time..I hope i am wrong..

Regards
admin

I hope, also, that it doesn't take too much time. I felt better when the
exchange rate was going down, even just one point at a time. It's at a stand-still right now and I guess it's just making me nervous. Gosh, it could take a hundred years at this rate.

Maybe we'll be surprised here soon. Thanks for your response - OMG, I don't know your name - - - - - thanks for your response Admin. :smiley: