Thread: The View from A Newbie

I am happy to say that I was lead to dinar from a friend of mine, and have purchased my dinar some 6 or so months ago. I have been reading roloclub since that time, and I have learned a lot, been confused a lot and also learned to take the rumors with a grain of salt. All that being said, I wanted to offer my views on our investments, however mislead they may be. Now I won't quote the many posts, articles and what not that I have chosen to paraphrase these ideas from, I don't think any of us have that kind of time.

1. Dinar is a high risk investment. I'll accept that, but without risk, there is no reward. SO lets weigh the risk from a logical perspective. The United States currently has in excess of 90 BILLION dollars in the reconstruction of Iraq as of June 2004 (Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, July 4, 2004; Page A01) and countless billions more have come from Iraqi neighbors, other coalition countries, and this does not include the HUGE debt relief package that was just signed. Other sources say that as of mid March 2006 the total investment is as high as 1 TRILLION dollars, with that cost growing by 200 MILLION dollars each day. (By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 8:25 p.m. ETMarch 17, 2006) So, what's my point? The United States and other coalition countries have too much invested in the success of Iraq to walk away. I feel pretty secure that my investment will flourish. With over 90 BILLION already invested by the US, other Arab countries and coalition countries, it would appear we are on pretty solid ground, despite the naysayers.

2. Naysayers, naysay all you like. The dinar RV can't be too far away. Iraq and the interested countries have been busy as bees in the kick starting of the Iraq economy. Forex will be trading electronically and internationally by early June. (Yes, some reports said they would have their systems up by mid May, but let's be realistic. If they said mid May, they really meant early to mid June. The are government types after all.) It is in the best interest of all those involved to get Iraq going, and when I say all, I do mean all. The people of Iraq are poor. They may have a good deal of their own dinar lying about, but a dinar without value is only good for burning to heat your home. SO, Iraq will continue to speed it's way toward a RV so that the good people of Iraq can once again afford to buy and sell. The backbone of any economy (as I remember high school economics...whew, way it really 20 years ago??) is the need for a balance of supply and demand. The demand for goods in the area is pretty high, and the supply is ready to go, but the cost of said supplies is simply too high with the dinar so undervalued. The government has to re-value the dinar based on economic prospects, natural resources and other factors, in order to complete the economic cycle in Iraq.

3. What will the RV be? I would love to see $1.40, but I do believe the initial RV will be around 30 cents. Why? I believe we have to be realistic in our expectations, and take a careful look at what Iraq can sustain over the short term. Starting at .30 isn't all that bad considering it is currently 1268 to the US 1. With as modest RV, and the influx of goods and services, we can expect to see the value of the dinar rise sharply over a very short period of time, in my estimation, we could see that 1 to 1 in as little as 6 months following a reasonable initial RV. Believe me, as a daddy to six little ones, a huge RV would make me very very very happy, but I have managed to scrape up enough to buy 2mill dinar. On my tight budget, it was all I could afford to risk, but I mean to make the best of the 2 million dinar I do have.

4. Rumors, rumors, rumors and more rumors. Like I have already said, take it with a grain of salt. It may take a couple of years to see our investments pay off. BUT, that 1 to 1 is coming. Sooner, the better, but look at it from a simple investment point of view. IF it were to take 5 years to get 1 to 1, I would accept that, show me another bond, stock, CD..anyhting, where a paycheck to paycheck dad like myself can invest with so little up front that will have the potential for an equal yield.....go ahead...nope..it doesn't exist. I've wasted more on Barney tapes and beer that I have spent here, and I have FAITH that it will pay off.

Lastly, thanks to all the intelligent and well informed people of this forum. I have learned a lot in the past 6 months. You all have pointed me to places I would have never looked, and I hope for all of that this ride will be over soon...as the saying goes....baby needs a new pair of shoes.

Originally Posted by Baile

I am happy to say that I was lead to dinar from a friend of mine, and have purchased my dinar some 6 or so months ago. I have been reading roloclub since that time, and I have learned a lot, been confused a lot and also learned to take the rumors with a grain of salt. All that being said, I wanted to offer my views on our investments, however mislead they may be. Now I won't quote the many posts, articles and what not that I have chosen to paraphrase these ideas from, I don't think any of us have that kind of time.

1. Dinar is a high risk investment. I'll accept that, but without risk, there is no reward. SO lets weigh the risk from a logical perspective. The United States currently has in excess of 90 BILLION dollars in the reconstruction of Iraq as of June 2004 (Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, July 4, 2004; Page A01) and countless billions more have come from Iraqi neighbors, other coalition countries, and this does not include the HUGE debt relief package that was just signed. Other sources say that as of mid March 2006 the total investment is as high as 1 TRILLION dollars, with that cost growing by 200 MILLION dollars each day. (By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 8:25 p.m. ETMarch 17, 2006) So, what's my point? The United States and other coalition countries have too much invested in the success of Iraq to walk away. I feel pretty secure that my investment will flourish. With over 90 BILLION already invested by the US, other Arab countries and coalition countries, it would appear we are on pretty solid ground, despite the naysayers.

2. Naysayers, naysay all you like. The dinar RV can't be too far away. Iraq and the interested countries have been busy as bees in the kick starting of the Iraq economy. Forex will be trading electronically and internationally by early June. (Yes, some reports said they would have their systems up by mid May, but let's be realistic. If they said mid May, they really meant early to mid June. The are government types after all.) It is in the best interest of all those involved to get Iraq going, and when I say all, I do mean all. The people of Iraq are poor. They may have a good deal of their own dinar lying about, but a dinar without value is only good for burning to heat your home. SO, Iraq will continue to speed it's way toward a RV so that the good people of Iraq can once again afford to buy and sell. The backbone of any economy (as I remember high school economics...whew, way it really 20 years ago??) is the need for a balance of supply and demand. The demand for goods in the area is pretty high, and the supply is ready to go, but the cost of said supplies is simply too high with the dinar so undervalued. The government has to re-value the dinar based on economic prospects, natural resources and other factors, in order to complete the economic cycle in Iraq.

3. What will the RV be? I would love to see $1.40, but I do believe the initial RV will be around 30 cents. Why? I believe we have to be realistic in our expectations, and take a careful look at what Iraq can sustain over the short term. Starting at .30 isn't all that bad considering it is currently 1268 to the US 1. With as modest RV, and the influx of goods and services, we can expect to see the value of the dinar rise sharply over a very short period of time, in my estimation, we could see that 1 to 1 in as little as 6 months following a reasonable initial RV. Believe me, as a daddy to six little ones, a huge RV would make me very very very happy, but I have managed to scrape up enough to buy 2mill dinar. On my tight budget, it was all I could afford to risk, but I mean to make the best of the 2 million dinar I do have.

4. Rumors, rumors, rumors and more rumors. Like I have already said, take it with a grain of salt. It may take a couple of years to see our investments pay off. BUT, that 1 to 1 is coming. Sooner, the better, but look at it from a simple investment point of view. IF it were to take 5 years to get 1 to 1, I would accept that, show me another bond, stock, CD..anyhting, where a paycheck to paycheck dad like myself can invest with so little up front that will have the potential for an equal yield.....go ahead...nope..it doesn't exist. I've wasted more on Barney tapes and beer that I have spent here, and I have FAITH that it will pay off.

Lastly, thanks to all the intelligent and well informed people of this forum. I have learned a lot in the past 6 months. You all have pointed me to places I would have never looked, and I hope for all of that this ride will be over soon...as the saying goes....baby needs a new pair of shoes.

Welcome to RolClub Baile! Standby for some Earth-Shakin excitement in the coming weeks.

Welcome to ROLCLUB Baile. Excellent post. I could not have said it near as well. Thank you for recapping why we have it made with this investment. I look forward to many more of your post.

I have to admit, rolclub has the highest level of optimism when it comes to predicting the next jump.

Nice post.

Good first post Baile, and welcome to RolClub.

Welcome mate.

Terrific first post btw!

Very well put, and you have learned alot in 6 months!
Welcome to Rolclub and join us in this ride of a lifetime.

welcome, and hope it messes with your head like it has mine.

I elected to bow out of the dong interest, only because I work with a vietmanese, and got their take on it.

However, I ran across this:

The ruble is buoyant because of high oil prices and the Russian government's "extraordinarily strong" budget controls, meaning its value could be underestimated by up to "35 to 40 percent," he added.

I wonder. . . . .?

The biggest obstacle to staying on top of it all seems to be free time to spend
on it all; just keeping up with daily posts on RC makes my head hurt.

Go Baile!
I love it!
I´m very happy to be part of this exciting time. Good luck to you all.