Thread: The View from A Newbie

Good Post Baile. You have reflected why we have made this investment. As crazy as it seems. The rumor "ride" is fun to be on if you keep your eye on the prize. This old warrior has said all along, a reval of .30 to .35 will do just fine and allow the Iraqi's to get stronger so one day a 1 to 1 may just be possible. Ain't this fun..

welcome to rolclub....it is a roller coaster ride and i love it!!
Sarah!!

Originally Posted by Baile

I am happy to say that I was lead to dinar from a friend of mine, and have purchased my dinar some 6 or so months ago. I have been reading roloclub since that time, and I have learned a lot, been confused a lot and also learned to take the rumors with a grain of salt. All that being said, I wanted to offer my views on our investments, however mislead they may be. Now I won't quote the many posts, articles and what not that I have chosen to paraphrase these ideas from, I don't think any of us have that kind of time.

1. Dinar is a high risk investment. I'll accept that, but without risk, there is no reward. SO lets weigh the risk from a logical perspective. The United States currently has in excess of 90 BILLION dollars in the reconstruction of Iraq as of June 2004 (Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, July 4, 2004; Page A01) and countless billions more have come from Iraqi neighbors, other coalition countries, and this does not include the HUGE debt relief package that was just signed. Other sources say that as of mid March 2006 the total investment is as high as 1 TRILLION dollars, with that cost growing by 200 MILLION dollars each day. (By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 8:25 p.m. ETMarch 17, 2006) So, what's my point? The United States and other coalition countries have too much invested in the success of Iraq to walk away. I feel pretty secure that my investment will flourish. With over 90 BILLION already invested by the US, other Arab countries and coalition countries, it would appear we are on pretty solid ground, despite the naysayers.

2. Naysayers, naysay all you like. The dinar RV can't be too far away. Iraq and the interested countries have been busy as bees in the kick starting of the Iraq economy. Forex will be trading electronically and internationally by early June. (Yes, some reports said they would have their systems up by mid May, but let's be realistic. If they said mid May, they really meant early to mid June. The are government types after all.) It is in the best interest of all those involved to get Iraq going, and when I say all, I do mean all. The people of Iraq are poor. They may have a good deal of their own dinar lying about, but a dinar without value is only good for burning to heat your home. SO, Iraq will continue to speed it's way toward a RV so that the good people of Iraq can once again afford to buy and sell. The backbone of any economy (as I remember high school economics...whew, way it really 20 years ago??) is the need for a balance of supply and demand. The demand for goods in the area is pretty high, and the supply is ready to go, but the cost of said supplies is simply too high with the dinar so undervalued. The government has to re-value the dinar based on economic prospects, natural resources and other factors, in order to complete the economic cycle in Iraq.

3. What will the RV be? I would love to see $1.40, but I do believe the initial RV will be around 30 cents. Why? I believe we have to be realistic in our expectations, and take a careful look at what Iraq can sustain over the short term. Starting at .30 isn't all that bad considering it is currently 1268 to the US 1. With as modest RV, and the influx of goods and services, we can expect to see the value of the dinar rise sharply over a very short period of time, in my estimation, we could see that 1 to 1 in as little as 6 months following a reasonable initial RV. Believe me, as a daddy to six little ones, a huge RV would make me very very very happy, but I have managed to scrape up enough to buy 2mill dinar. On my tight budget, it was all I could afford to risk, but I mean to make the best of the 2 million dinar I do have.

4. Rumors, rumors, rumors and more rumors. Like I have already said, take it with a grain of salt. It may take a couple of years to see our investments pay off. BUT, that 1 to 1 is coming. Sooner, the better, but look at it from a simple investment point of view. IF it were to take 5 years to get 1 to 1, I would accept that, show me another bond, stock, CD..anyhting, where a paycheck to paycheck dad like myself can invest with so little up front that will have the potential for an equal yield.....go ahead...nope..it doesn't exist. I've wasted more on Barney tapes and beer that I have spent here, and I have FAITH that it will pay off.

Lastly, thanks to all the intelligent and well informed people of this forum. I have learned a lot in the past 6 months. You all have pointed me to places I would have never looked, and I hope for all of that this ride will be over soon...as the saying goes....baby needs a new pair of shoes.

All excellent points. If I can, I would like to add that if you look at this from my perspective, you can actually view the Dinar as NOT risky. Why? Because I can cash all out right now and be better off than I was going in. It has moved in value enough to be able to cash out if it starts heading in the wrong direction. I will not have made any money, but will not have lost any, either. I don't think we have to worry about that, though IMO. Of course, if all goes to pot over there, not that it is wine and roses now, then. yes I could end up losing my shirt. But again, IMO... NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Thanks.

Chris

Welcome to Rol Club Baile, good luck with your investments! I second what Chris says as well.

Originally Posted by Baile

I am happy to say that I was lead to dinar from a friend of mine, and have purchased my dinar some 6 or so months ago. I have been reading roloclub since that time, and I have learned a lot, been confused a lot and also learned to take the rumors with a grain of salt. All that being said, I wanted to offer my views on our investments, however mislead they may be. Now I won't quote the many posts, articles and what not that I have chosen to paraphrase these ideas from, I don't think any of us have that kind of time.

1. Dinar is a high risk investment. I'll accept that, but without risk, there is no reward. SO lets weigh the risk from a logical perspective. The United States currently has in excess of 90 BILLION dollars in the reconstruction of Iraq as of June 2004 (Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, July 4, 2004; Page A01) and countless billions more have come from Iraqi neighbors, other coalition countries, and this does not include the HUGE debt relief package that was just signed. Other sources say that as of mid March 2006 the total investment is as high as 1 TRILLION dollars, with that cost growing by 200 MILLION dollars each day. (By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 8:25 p.m. ETMarch 17, 2006) So, what's my point? The United States and other coalition countries have too much invested in the success of Iraq to walk away. I feel pretty secure that my investment will flourish. With over 90 BILLION already invested by the US, other Arab countries and coalition countries, it would appear we are on pretty solid ground, despite the naysayers.

2. Naysayers, naysay all you like. The dinar RV can't be too far away. Iraq and the interested countries have been busy as bees in the kick starting of the Iraq economy. Forex will be trading electronically and internationally by early June. (Yes, some reports said they would have their systems up by mid May, but let's be realistic. If they said mid May, they really meant early to mid June. The are government types after all.) It is in the best interest of all those involved to get Iraq going, and when I say all, I do mean all. The people of Iraq are poor. They may have a good deal of their own dinar lying about, but a dinar without value is only good for burning to heat your home. SO, Iraq will continue to speed it's way toward a RV so that the good people of Iraq can once again afford to buy and sell. The backbone of any economy (as I remember high school economics...whew, way it really 20 years ago??) is the need for a balance of supply and demand. The demand for goods in the area is pretty high, and the supply is ready to go, but the cost of said supplies is simply too high with the dinar so undervalued. The government has to re-value the dinar based on economic prospects, natural resources and other factors, in order to complete the economic cycle in Iraq.

3. What will the RV be? I would love to see $1.40, but I do believe the initial RV will be around 30 cents. Why? I believe we have to be realistic in our expectations, and take a careful look at what Iraq can sustain over the short term. Starting at .30 isn't all that bad considering it is currently 1268 to the US 1. With as modest RV, and the influx of goods and services, we can expect to see the value of the dinar rise sharply over a very short period of time, in my estimation, we could see that 1 to 1 in as little as 6 months following a reasonable initial RV. Believe me, as a daddy to six little ones, a huge RV would make me very very very happy, but I have managed to scrape up enough to buy 2mill dinar. On my tight budget, it was all I could afford to risk, but I mean to make the best of the 2 million dinar I do have.

4. Rumors, rumors, rumors and more rumors. Like I have already said, take it with a grain of salt. It may take a couple of years to see our investments pay off. BUT, that 1 to 1 is coming. Sooner, the better, but look at it from a simple investment point of view. IF it were to take 5 years to get 1 to 1, I would accept that, show me another bond, stock, CD..anyhting, where a paycheck to paycheck dad like myself can invest with so little up front that will have the potential for an equal yield.....go ahead...nope..it doesn't exist. I've wasted more on Barney tapes and beer that I have spent here, and I have FAITH that it will pay off.

Lastly, thanks to all the intelligent and well informed people of this forum. I have learned a lot in the past 6 months. You all have pointed me to places I would have never looked, and I hope for all of that this ride will be over soon...as the saying goes....baby needs a new pair of shoes.

RIGHT ON, BABY!!!!!

Originally Posted by Baile

I am happy to say that I was lead to dinar from a friend of mine, and have purchased my dinar some 6 or so months ago. I have been reading roloclub since that time, and I have learned a lot, been confused a lot and also learned to take the rumors with a grain of salt. All that being said, I wanted to offer my views on our investments, however mislead they may be. Now I won't quote the many posts, articles and what not that I have chosen to paraphrase these ideas from, I don't think any of us have that kind of time.

1. Dinar is a high risk investment. I'll accept that, but without risk, there is no reward. SO lets weigh the risk from a logical perspective. The United States currently has in excess of 90 BILLION dollars in the reconstruction of Iraq as of June 2004 (Washington Post Foreign Service Sunday, July 4, 2004; Page A01) and countless billions more have come from Iraqi neighbors, other coalition countries, and this does not include the HUGE debt relief package that was just signed. Other sources say that as of mid March 2006 the total investment is as high as 1 TRILLION dollars, with that cost growing by 200 MILLION dollars each day. (By Martin Wolk Chief economics correspondent MSNBC Updated: 8:25 p.m. ETMarch 17, 2006) So, what's my point? The United States and other coalition countries have too much invested in the success of Iraq to walk away. I feel pretty secure that my investment will flourish. With over 90 BILLION already invested by the US, other Arab countries and coalition countries, it would appear we are on pretty solid ground, despite the naysayers.

2. Naysayers, naysay all you like. The dinar RV can't be too far away. Iraq and the interested countries have been busy as bees in the kick starting of the Iraq economy. Forex will be trading electronically and internationally by early June. (Yes, some reports said they would have their systems up by mid May, but let's be realistic. If they said mid May, they really meant early to mid June. The are government types after all.) It is in the best interest of all those involved to get Iraq going, and when I say all, I do mean all. The people of Iraq are poor. They may have a good deal of their own dinar lying about, but a dinar without value is only good for burning to heat your home. SO, Iraq will continue to speed it's way toward a RV so that the good people of Iraq can once again afford to buy and sell. The backbone of any economy (as I remember high school economics...whew, way it really 20 years ago??) is the need for a balance of supply and demand. The demand for goods in the area is pretty high, and the supply is ready to go, but the cost of said supplies is simply too high with the dinar so undervalued. The government has to re-value the dinar based on economic prospects, natural resources and other factors, in order to complete the economic cycle in Iraq.

3. What will the RV be? I would love to see $1.40, but I do believe the initial RV will be around 30 cents. Why? I believe we have to be realistic in our expectations, and take a careful look at what Iraq can sustain over the short term. Starting at .30 isn't all that bad considering it is currently 1268 to the US 1. With as modest RV, and the influx of goods and services, we can expect to see the value of the dinar rise sharply over a very short period of time, in my estimation, we could see that 1 to 1 in as little as 6 months following a reasonable initial RV. Believe me, as a daddy to six little ones, a huge RV would make me very very very happy, but I have managed to scrape up enough to buy 2mill dinar. On my tight budget, it was all I could afford to risk, but I mean to make the best of the 2 million dinar I do have.

4. Rumors, rumors, rumors and more rumors. Like I have already said, take it with a grain of salt. It may take a couple of years to see our investments pay off. BUT, that 1 to 1 is coming. Sooner, the better, but look at it from a simple investment point of view. IF it were to take 5 years to get 1 to 1, I would accept that, show me another bond, stock, CD..anyhting, where a paycheck to paycheck dad like myself can invest with so little up front that will have the potential for an equal yield.....go ahead...nope..it doesn't exist. I've wasted more on Barney tapes and beer that I have spent here, and I have FAITH that it will pay off.

Lastly, thanks to all the intelligent and well informed people of this forum. I have learned a lot in the past 6 months. You all have pointed me to places I would have never looked, and I hope for all of that this ride will be over soon...as the saying goes....baby needs a new pair of shoes.

Very solid.

A good way to look at it.

You don't view it as something that will never happen, and you don't view it as something that is going to make you a millionaire instantly (aka the great pipe dream)

I believe the same way. A shakedown "lap-dance" rate of somewhere under a dollar, but over a dime is very likely to happen first. This has been discussed quite a bit.

But with everything that is currently taking place, and if it is true about the ISX.... that does not cancel out their "lapdance" rate to start out above a dollar.

If anyone knows me well enough, they will tell you that I love seeing negative posts about the dinar.

It discourages people.

Right now there are those few of us that know better. But there are still a lot that will look at the negative side of things, and they wont buy in.

Which is great.

The less people that buy dinar, the better off for dinar holders like me and the rest of the 10%.

This is why I believe our govt is about 75% discouraging, 25% encouraging people to invest in Iraq.

If you read this and have a big "?"

I will explain further....

It's very easy to find an article that reads something like "dinar investing is not encouraged because there is no market for dinar except in Iraq"

If you are someone like me that refuses to believe everything they read, then try this.

Call 10 US banks and ask them if they will exchange your dinar.

about 20-30% of them will do it. and that small # of banks are willing because they know exactly what's going on, they know of the RV, (one of them straight up told me it's going to happen.... a US BANK!!) and they are willing to exchange because they will make money from the initial exchange (fees) and both the federal and state govt will get their share in US dollars when the LTCG taxes are paid....the bank will have a fresh supply of dinar, that will raise in value again and again, several times over in the short term, and when it all slows down, the rate will be way up where it is supposed to be, and by then, those few banks will have a solid supply of dinar that is worth more than USD.

they know that:

a) most people will cash out early

b) if it starts under a dollar there will still be a ton of people cashing out

c) as soon as it gets to between 1-2 dollars, the majority will cash out

those small # of banks know this. they have had it all worked out way before they even bought in. they will make more than any of us from exchange fees and when it reaches peak value, they will have most of our dinar.

it's hard to say if other banks will join in, but logically I don't see the rest of the banks exchanging until there is an even flow going.... that is after the majority of us have cashed in, the rate reaches its peak, and the banks that got in early have made their profits.

Like I said in some other posts, I believe there is a very good reason there are so few banks exchanging, for the same reasons the govt has all of those websites out there discouraging dinar investments to ensure that they don't have too many of us buying dinar.

If 40% of america bought dinar it would have a very bad impact on our economy. try imagining 40% of our population suddenly becoming rich.

30% may even be too high.

It is for all of those reasons, that I love seeing people post negative vibes and discouraging anyone from buying in. It is my belief that through a limited # of banks, and the US Govt giving a HUGE THUMBS DOWN, while with the other hand giving a very small, obscured thumbs up.... that it is their strategy to keep the majority from ruining everything, while supporting it just enough with that 10% active investors to enable its growth.

So, when you step back and view this whole thing at just the right angle....it isn't hard to see that our own govt has a very large investment in Iraq, and they know exactly how to ensure it's success.

This is the most fun i've had with an investment so far, good, bad, sideways this whole experience has been a great eye opener for me. My favorite part is arguing with uninformed, *****s at work. Its amazing how little people know about what goes on outside of what the t.v. tells them anymore.

I love it, all the replys, good bad and ugly. I am hopeful, if not overly so. I know it may be a longer term investment than others think it wil be. Regardless, as I have said, I plan to make the most of the 2mil I have, and if I walk away from this with my home paid for, and some pocket cash, I will be content. If we all walk away from this with way more, I will be seeing you all somewhere tropical on dinar club group vacation. Right now, I am trying to remain focused, grounded and realistic, with that hope for great great things waiting patiently in the wings. Again, thanks for all your replys and your insight.

Originally Posted by The_Mad_Scot

Very solid.

A good way to look at it.

You don't view it as something that will never happen, and you don't view it as something that is going to make you a millionaire instantly (aka the great pipe dream)

I believe the same way. A shakedown "lap-dance" rate of somewhere under a dollar, but over a dime is very likely to happen first. This has been discussed quite a bit.

But with everything that is currently taking place, and if it is true about the ISX.... that does not cancel out their "lapdance" rate to start out above a dollar.

If anyone knows me well enough, they will tell you that I love seeing negative posts about the dinar.

It discourages people.

Right now there are those few of us that know better. But there are still a lot that will look at the negative side of things, and they wont buy in.

Which is great.

The less people that buy dinar, the better off for dinar holders like me and the rest of the 10%.

This is why I believe our govt is about 75% discouraging, 25% encouraging people to invest in Iraq.

If you read this and have a big "?"

I will explain further....

It's very easy to find an article that reads something like "dinar investing is not encouraged because there is no market for dinar except in Iraq"

If you are someone like me that refuses to believe everything they read, then try this.

Call 10 US banks and ask them if they will exchange your dinar.

about 20-30% of them will do it. and that small # of banks are willing because they know exactly what's going on, they know of the RV, (one of them straight up told me it's going to happen.... a US BANK!!) and they are willing to exchange because they will make money from the initial exchange (fees) and both the federal and state govt will get their share in US dollars when the LTCG taxes are paid....the bank will have a fresh supply of dinar, that will raise in value again and again, several times over in the short term, and when it all slows down, the rate will be way up where it is supposed to be, and by then, those few banks will have a solid supply of dinar that is worth more than USD.

they know that:

a) most people will cash out early

b) if it starts under a dollar there will still be a ton of people cashing out

c) as soon as it gets to between 1-2 dollars, the majority will cash out

those small # of banks know this. they have had it all worked out way before they even bought in. they will make more than any of us from exchange fees and when it reaches peak value, they will have most of our dinar.

it's hard to say if other banks will join in, but logically I don't see the rest of the banks exchanging until there is an even flow going.... that is after the majority of us have cashed in, the rate reaches its peak, and the banks that got in early have made their profits.

Like I said in some other posts, I believe there is a very good reason there are so few banks exchanging, for the same reasons the govt has all of those websites out there discouraging dinar investments to ensure that they don't have too many of us buying dinar.

If 40% of america bought dinar it would have a very bad impact on our economy. try imagining 40% of our population suddenly becoming rich.

30% may even be too high.

It is for all of those reasons, that I love seeing people post negative vibes and discouraging anyone from buying in. It is my belief that through a limited # of banks, and the US Govt giving a HUGE THUMBS DOWN, while with the other hand giving a very small, obscured thumbs up.... that it is their strategy to keep the majority from ruining everything, while supporting it just enough with that 10% active investors to enable its growth.

So, when you step back and view this whole thing at just the right angle....it isn't hard to see that our own govt has a very large investment in Iraq, and they know exactly how to ensure it's success.

Good points but I was wondering what prevents other banks from looking at it the same way as those banks who are exchanging IRAQI D? ain't all banks have their currency advisory dept?
Just want to have some knowledge about those stuff.
Nawal

The majority of banks wont get involved because of the gov't "showing" mostly against the idea. They just are like people, after all they are run by people.

Exactly what the gov't wants.