Thread: Munny Model Timelines (UPDATE)

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

I dunno, Adman, you tell us what the newest rate will be. After all you've jumped on the .66, $1, $1.28, $1.48, $2., $3.22, and even pimping the latest $5.26 numbers. You've been all over the map on picking numbers, far wider than I ever have. I've pretty much stayed in the .01 to .20 zone for the past year. Throw a dart and give us a new overnight re-val, Adman, tis what you do best and most!!!

LOL, talking your usual BS. Go and change your model AGAIN.

Originally Posted by Adster

LOL, talking your usual BS. Go and change your model AGAIN.

Adster! Like your form!lol

Originally Posted by screwball

Adster! Like your form!lol

maybe he should change his name to colostomy bag! because I think he is full of it!

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

I dunno, Adman, you tell us what the newest rate will be. After all you've jumped on the .66, $1, $1.28, $1.48, $2., $3.22, and even pimping the latest $5.26 numbers. You've been all over the map on picking numbers, far wider than I ever have. I've pretty much stayed in the .01 to .20 zone for the past year. Throw a dart and give us a new overnight re-val, Adman, tis what you do best and most!!!

Please show where adster said this?? I only remember Adster saying there is no way it would open at this rate as it would hit the CBI to hard so your post like your muny model isn't exactly right.

Originally Posted by Onenomad

Please show where adster said this?? I only remember Adster saying there is no way it would open at this rate as it would hit the CBI to hard so your post like your muny model isn't exactly right.

My friend, Adman must have at least 20,000 posts spread across multiple Forums. No way on Earth can I go back and pin point every time he's claimed the magic re-val is just around the corner. Believe me he's jumped for joy over a far wider range of values than my model has ever had. It's fine if that's the way he truly believes, but for him to claim I've changed my model more than he's changed his values is simply inaccurate.

=lndmn_01;Perhaps you should read the IMF regulations, they require a currency be maintained in a (approx.) 4% range. not a 4% range in comparison with other countries but a 4% range from where they start when becoming a member. i.e. the dinar is at 1000:1 when Iraq becomes a member of the IMF. the dinar may increase to no more than 980 dinars to the dollar and may not decline in value any more than 1020 dinars to the dollar.

Fair enough. My answer was assuming you thought they had to be within 4% of their neighbors, my bad. Fact is they can move past 4% as time passes on. No way would Iraq be held to a 4% single time limit.

As for the slow grow I'll use the same example I used earlier elsewhere:

It's not difficult to see the merchants raising prices but the problem comes when long term imports/export contracts are signed.
If I agree to buy 1000 widgets a month from Joe in Jordan at 1000 dinar per widget for the next 2 years, (assuming a steady increase in the value of the dinar of 25% per year) by the time the contract is up I'm paying 50% more per widget then when I started.

Let's not forget the law that was passed requiring all transactions in Iraq to be conducted only in dinar.

Let's use the overnight 1:1 example for comparison. Abdul drives into Kuwait and buys 10 pallets of bricks for half a Million IQD (about $400 USD value) from Mubba the Brickman. Iraq re-vals overnight to 1:1. Now Abdul drives into Kuwait and buys Mubba's entire stock with his half a Million IQD (which is now worth $500,000 USD). See a slight problem with that scenario???

Originally Posted by lndmn_01

Also have you realized that your model shows an increase in the value of the dinar by 200-300 dinar to the dollar every four months or so? You just said that a large revaluation would cause mass chaos but I'm sure you realize that the last 3 increases shown in your model are increase of 60%, 33% and a 100% increase, respectively, in the value of the dinar. Are you really trying to say that a one time revaluation would cause more problems then continuous large increases?

I added the timeline because of requests from several people. They are a general example of what "might" happen. I've stated several times that the two key components of the model are Slow Grow theory (vs the standard belief of a high overnight type re-val) and the eventual value range of .01, .05, .10, .20 (vs 1:1 type values). I've wrestled lately with simply doing away with the timelines because people seem to get hung up on them. Which is completely understandable because it's natural to want to know when payday is coming. For reference let's look at the % increases we'd see from a reference point of 1430 from last year:

TABLE F

1430 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point.

1300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD = 10% increase in value.

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD = 43% increase in value.

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD = 100% increase in value.

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD = 186% increase in value.

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD = 1329% increase in value.

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD = 2757% increase in value.

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD = 5614% increase in value.

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD = 14,186% increase in value.

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD = 28,471% increase in value.

1 IQD = .27 USD = 38,471% increase in value.

1 IQD = .30 USD = 42,757% increase in value.

1 IQD = .50 USD = 71,329% increase in value.

1 IQD = $1 USD = 142,757% increase in value.

1 IQD = $2 USD = 285,614% increase in value.

1 IQD = $3 USD = 428,471% increase in value.

So, as you can see even the .20 levels are astronomical in returns. We can only hope we'll see that. If they even get to the 700 to 1 levels they've increased currency exchange rate by 100%. Even that will be a major news event.

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

Fair enough. My answer was assuming you thought they had to be within 4% of their neighbors, my bad. Fact is they can move past 4% as time passes on. No way would Iraq be held to a 4% single time limit.



Let's use the overnight 1:1 example for comparison. Abdul drives into Kuwait and buys 10 pallets of bricks for half a Million IQD (about $400 USD value) from Mubba the Brickman. Iraq re-vals overnight to 1:1. Now Abdul drives into Kuwait and buys Mubba's entire stock with his half a Million IQD (which is now worth $500,000 USD). See a slight problem with that scenario???

i see a 1:1 and then Abdul hires a pakistani, a filipino, and a lebanese to drive the new mercedes trucks he has bought down to Kuwait. Mubba knows of the rv and his rate per pallet has now climbed a little higher. Not much, but enuf to let Abdul know he hasnt just fallen off the turnip camel. the problem arises when the pakistani and the lebanese start arguing over which school of madras has the highest body count of infidels... the taliban or the hamas.
They start fighting and the filipino is forced to hit one with the other. When they finally arrive back to Abdul's compound, the two bloody moronzs are fired, and Abdul now has to figure out how to smuggle two more Filipinos into iraq to work for him , since the moronic Filipino govt still wont allow it. However , the problem is solved since he has so much more cash since the rv that he is able to bribe a few peeps and get it done.
So you see MunnyB, the lesson learned here is that there are no limits or boundaries except those that we impose on ourselves.

Money Bags, I like your post because they make me think. I'm too ignorant to know if your line of reasoning is correctly on track but I think you post make a lot of sence however, I do know just a little bit about the futures market and the senario you describe about the instant overnight changing of a currencies value is contended with every day by bussinesses making deals with foreign countrys. That is one reason the futures market exsist, so that profits can be locked in at todays price no matter what happens tomorrow. I don't see how an overnight R/V would do any harm.