Originally Posted by
Ranger III
You may have noticed that Susie has recently added "or $3.22" to her
"signature line."
I remember back in September thinking that the small minority of those
suggesting such a number had taken leave of their senses. But now, I'm not so sure.
Assume for argument's sake that twenty (20) trillion dinars were printed and
that the United States holds five (5) trillion. Both of these figures have been
suggested in prior posts. Then also assume that other governments and
people like us hold another five (5) trillion. Then assume that Socata 850
is right when he says that approximately six (6) trillion will have been taken
out of circulation by the CBI as soon as tomorrow. That leaves only four (4)
trillion dinars currently in circulation.
Now assume that the CBI continues at its current pace and takes another
one (1) trillion out by March 21st. We are now down to approximately
three (3) trillion in circulation. This figure is roughly supported by wciappetta's report that there were 4.6 trillion dinars in circulation in
November of 2005.
Now ask yourself the question of which was/is more feasible: (1) an r/v at $1.20 (.93 of the euro based upon Susie's corroborated rumors), at a time when neither the FIL nor the HCL had been passed and at a time when the amount of dinars in circulation was approximately ten (10) trillion; or (2) an r/v at $3.22 at a time post passage of the FIL and HCL when the amount of dinars in circulation is expected to be approximately three (3) trillion?
I suggest to you that choice (2) may be just as feasible on March 22nd as
choice (1) was in late September. Hasn't $3.22 been said to be the "normal"
or "previous" rate in Iraq? Add to these positives the impending admission
of Iraq into the WTO, the assists from the World Bank and the IMF, the improved security expected to be delivered by General Petraeus, and the
increase in the price of oil well beyond the $50 per barrel assumed for 2007
budgetary purposes - and what you might conclude is that $1.29 is some-
thing of a minimum r/v number.