this is just a theory and would like some input.
iraq 27,000.000 population and 15 trillion dinars
kuwait 2,200,000 population and 10 billion dinars
but Iraq has 12.27 times more people then Kuwait
so if you take kuwaits exchange rate of 1 Kuwaiti Dinar = 3.47126 US Dollars
and divide that by 12.27 more people in Iraq you would get an exchange
rate of 0.2829 for Iraq, roughly 3.5 iqd = 1usd
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Thread: A theory
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24-01-2007, 09:38 PM #1
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A theory
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24-01-2007, 10:17 PM #2
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Sounds like a winner to me. I'll take it.
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24-01-2007, 10:18 PM #3
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I Take It To Banky!!!!!!!
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24-01-2007, 10:35 PM #4
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25-01-2007, 12:03 AM #5
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Arch, I understand where your comming from but, comparing population size to formulate like currency values does not take into consideration a ton of things that influences their economies.
The first thing that comes to mind is Iraq will have a far more rebust economy because they have so much infrastructure to develop. Another thing to remember Kuwait has nothing of it's own but oil. That is the single industry in Kuwait. Yes they have a little gold trade and some tourists but that is it. Iraq on the other hand has oil, agriculture and will have manufacturing. Mark my words Iraq will be the be the largest manufacturer of goods in the middleast in ten years. I know you don't want to wait ten years, we won't have to. Just developing the infrastucture to build that manufacturing capability will boost the economy like a rocket. Iraq has cheap lobor, lots of it. It also has a market place. Companies are already at the starting line to develop that market. Instead of "gold rush" we have an "Iraq rush".
Just my two cents.
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25-01-2007, 12:08 AM #6
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25-01-2007, 12:43 AM #7
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25-01-2007, 01:15 AM #8
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is there a good faith estimate as to how many trillions of dinar are held by foreign gov's?
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25-01-2007, 01:16 AM #9
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25-01-2007, 06:37 AM #10
Bravo!!! Excellent excellent excellent. You get the Gold Star for today, bro. While the formula is not quite that simple, you open people's eyes to the fact that there are many factors that go into any nations exchange rate. It's not as simple as who has the most oil or gas or assets has the highest exchange rate. Exchange rate is one measure of wealth, but not the only one. The rate has to fit or work for each nation individually and their circumstances. A country with the large population of Iraq would want a rate near the middle of their Middle Eastern OPEC neighbors similar to Saudi Arabia. It actually gives them more leverage than if they were at the top with Kuwait, Bahrain, or Oman.
3.5 IQD to 1 USD is approximately .28 USD. A nice compact formula part of which you bet the CBI used in their original calculations. Keep in mind this table showing other factors that they would have used in their currency exchange formulas:
TABLE D
All this information has been culled from the World Factbook:
GDP Purchasing Power parity World Ranking. Note Iraq rates closest to UAE, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Note Iraq’s purchasing parity will increase as does its economy:
21. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD $562 Billion
30. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD $388 Billion
34. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD $303 Billion
54. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD $154 Billion
59. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD $111 Billion
61. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD $94 Billion
68. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD $72 Billion
71. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD $66 Billion
82. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD $45 Billion
90. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD $40 Billion
104. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD $27 Billion
108. Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD $24 Billion
109. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD $24 Billion
113. Afghanistan 1 Afg = .023 USD $22 Billion
127. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD $16 Billion
Natural Gas proven Reserves World Ranking. Once again note which countries Nat Gas wealth Iraq most closely resembles (Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar). Iraq may even have far more reserves than are listed here:
3. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD 27 Trillion (cu m)
4. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD 26 Trillion (cu m)
5. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD 7 Trillion (cu m)
6. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD 6 Trillion (cu m)
12. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD 3 Trillion (cu m)
20. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD 1.9 Trillion (cu m)
24. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD 1.6 Trillion (cu m)
25. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD 1.3 Trillion (cu m)
29. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD 829 Billion (cu m)
44. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD 241 Billion (cu m)
54. Afghanistan 1 Afg = .023 USD 100 Billion (cu m)
56. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD 92 Billion (cu m)
54. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD 39 Billion (cu m)
84. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD 6 Billion (cu m)
Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD N/A
Proven oil Reserves World Ranking. Note once again where Iraq falls in oil wealth (Saudi Arabia, UAE). Note also Iraq has only 10% of known oil reserves surveyed. They could actually have as much oil as Saudi Arabia:
2. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD 263 Billion (bbl)
4. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD 133 Billion (bbl)
5. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD 113 Billion (bbl)
6. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD 98 Billion (bbl)
7. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD 97 Billion (bbl)
10. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD 40 Billion (bbl)
17. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD 16 Billion (bbl)
22. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD 6 Billion (bbl)
31. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD 2.7 Billion (bbl)
32. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD 2.5 Billion (bbl)
67. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD 124 Million (bbl)
88. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD 1.9 Million (bbl)
90. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD 6 Billion (bbl)
Afghanistan 1Afg = .023 USD N/A
Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD N/AMunny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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