Munny Model Timelines

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20-01-2007, 10:52 PM
MunnyBaggs

Munny Model Timelines

Ok, many a peeple have asked me to provide a timeline for my Munny Model. It would have been easier had they asked me to predict next weeks Power Ball Lotto numbers, or to cure cancer, or to negotiate World peace. But since we are now currently actually seeing the Munny Model in action and within a few months we will know if it is and will be the model the CBI is using I thought I’d guesstimate a few potential timelines.

To restate the Model the current and final target rate will be 1 IQD = .27 USD. When the Iraqis reach the .20 levels of exchange rate the Model calls for Iraq to “fix” or “peg” the rate somewhere in that level. This could potentially be the end rate before the GCC Gulf Dinar is introduced or there is a possibility Iraq could readjust the rate at a later time. I allow for a potential large re-val to the GK “Heavy Dinar” level of .06 or the BH “March levels of .05 to .10 since both those values fall within the projected Munny Model value. But the most likely scenario of the Model will remain steady “upticks” or “bumps” which are currently employed by the CBI. Keep in mind that this is only a theory based on all the information and factors I’ve amassed of today. There is no 110% guarantee that these events will come to fruition and do not invest based on theory or rumour. Also never invest more than you can afford to lose in any “high risk” venture.

These timelines are based on an initial value of 1315 from the date of January 13, 2007. Keep in mind none of these timelines will be or even could be linear in nature. These values are based on an average “bump” per week but remember the Iraqis do have several holidays during the year where the exchange rate will remain constant. There will be starts and stops, big bumps, smaller bumps. As I said none of these timelines will be linear and one may be employed by the CBI and then later they may take a quicker or slower path. There is no way to exactly predict how quickly we will get to the target rate and the final timeline may be longer or much shorter than the ones outlined here. The timeline in my sig will use the most conservative potential timeline (10 Dinar average per week) but will be adjusted based on new information and the pace the CBI actually implements.

It is suggested you save or print this chart out for future reference.

10 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD April 7th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD August 18th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 19th 2008

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD March 29th 2008

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD August 16th 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 3rd 2009

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD May 30th 2009

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD July 4th 2009

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD July 25th 2009

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD August 1st 2009

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD August 8th 2009

1 IQD = .27 USD August 8th 2009

15 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD March 10th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD June 16th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD September 15th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD November 3rd 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD February 2nd 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD May 3rd 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD August 9th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD August 30th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD September 13th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD September 13th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD September 13th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD September 13th 2008

20 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 24th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD May 5th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD July 14th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD August 18th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD October 27th 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 5th 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD March 15th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD March 29th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD April 5th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD April 12th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD April 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD April 19th 2008

25 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 17th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD April 14th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD June 9th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD July 25th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD September 1st 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD October 27th 2007

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD December 22nd 2007

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD January 5th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 12th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD January 19th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD January 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD January 19th 2008
21-01-2007, 01:23 AM
Mauser98k

good work

Thanks, Munny. Very interesting and useful.
22-01-2007, 05:33 AM
Gloribee

Quote:

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

Ok, many a peeple have asked me to provide a timeline for my Munny Model. It would have been easier had they asked me to predict next weeks Power Ball Lotto numbers, or to cure cancer, or to negotiate World peace. But since we are now currently actually seeing the Munny Model in action and within a few months we will know if it is and will be the model the CBI is using I thought I’d guesstimate a few potential timelines.

To restate the Model the current and final target rate will be 1 IQD = .27 USD. When the Iraqis reach the .20 levels of exchange rate the Model calls for Iraq to “fix” or “peg” the rate somewhere in that level. This could potentially be the end rate before the GCC Gulf Dinar is introduced or there is a possibility Iraq could readjust the rate at a later time. I allow for a potential large re-val to the GK “Heavy Dinar” level of .06 or the BH “March levels of .05 to .10 since both those values fall within the projected Munny Model value. But the most likely scenario of the Model will remain steady “upticks” or “bumps” which are currently employed by the CBI. Keep in mind that this is only a theory based on all the information and factors I’ve amassed of today. There is no 110% guarantee that these events will come to fruition and do not invest based on theory or rumour. Also never invest more than you can afford to lose in any “high risk” venture.

These timelines are based on an initial value of 1315 from the date of January 13, 2007. Keep in mind none of these timelines will be or even could be linear in nature. These values are based on an average “bump” per week but remember the Iraqis do have several holidays during the year where the exchange rate will remain constant. There will be starts and stops, big bumps, smaller bumps. As I said none of these timelines will be linear and one may be employed by the CBI and then later they may take a quicker or slower path. There is no way to exactly predict how quickly we will get to the target rate and the final timeline may be longer or much shorter than the ones outlined here. The timeline in my sig will use the most conservative potential timeline (10 Dinar average per week) but will be adjusted based on new information and the pace the CBI actually implements.

It is suggested you save or print this chart out for future reference.

10 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD April 7th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD August 18th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD January 19th 2008

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD March 29th 2008

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD August 16th 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 3rd 2009

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD May 30th 2009

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD July 4th 2009

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD July 25th 2009

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD August 1st 2009

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD August 8th 2009

1 IQD = .27 USD August 8th 2009

15 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007
1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD March 10th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD June 16th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD September 15th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD November 3rd 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD February 2nd 2008

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD May 3rd 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD August 9th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD August 30th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD September 13th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD September 13th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD September 13th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD September 13th 2008

20 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 24th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD May 5th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD July 14th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD August 18th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD October 27th 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD January 5th 2008

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD March 15th 2008

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD March 29th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD April 5th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD April 12th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD April 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD April 19th 2008

25 Dinar average increase in value per week:

1315 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0007 USD Baseline starting point. January 13, 2007

1200 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .00077 USD February 17th 2007

1000 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .001 USD April 14th 2007

800 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0013 USD June 9th 2007

700 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD to .0014 USD July 25th 2007

500 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.002 USD September 1st 2007

300 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .0033 USD October 27th 2007

100 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.01 USD December 22nd 2007

50 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.02 USD January 5th 2008

25 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD =.04 USD January 12th 2008

10 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .10 USD January 19th 2008

5 IQD to 1 USD
1 IQD = .20 USD January 19th 2008

1 IQD = .27 USD January 19th 2008

I find it funny that your idea makes so many changes from when you first starting posting it. Doe's it change based on the CBI opening? Sorry. but to me it makes zero sense at all. Not bashing it or you, but I have no idea on how you think this is correct. Basically I get the same from CBI. Care to explain how you arrive at these numbers as I am totally confused by them.

Gloribee
22-01-2007, 05:49 AM
Elfwizard

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gloribee

I find it funny that your idea makes so many changes from when you first starting posting it. Doe's it change based on the CBI opening? Sorry. but to me it makes zero sense at all. Not bashing it or you, but I have no idea on how you think this is correct. Basically I get the same from CBI. Care to explain how you arrive at these numbers as I am totally confused by them.

Gloribee

Basically thats what it is, The way the CBI is doing it. His model says there will be no MAGICAL RV at a high rate. I tend to be right with him on that. Slow rise scenerio.
22-01-2007, 06:00 AM
Gloribee

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elfwizard

Basically thats what it is, The way the CBI is doing it. His model says there will be no MAGICAL RV at a high rate. I tend to be right with him on that. Slow rise scenerio.

Thxs Elf for the reply. While I disagree 100% I appreciate all posts that do not bash. Thxs for helping clear this up.

Gloribee
22-01-2007, 07:29 AM
shotgunsusie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gloribee

Thxs Elf for the reply. While I disagree 100% I appreciate all posts that do not bash. Thxs for helping clear this up.

Gloribee

perfect example of an appropriate response. i aspire to be as wise.
22-01-2007, 10:19 AM
Cdn Scrooge

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gloribee

Thxs Elf for the reply. While I disagree 100% I appreciate all posts that do not bash. Thxs for helping clear this up.

Gloribee

I agree with you Gloribee. I cannot for the life of me understand how a slow and gradual rise will help the average Iraqi citizen. It will take far too long for the Dinar to have an effective buying power that way. And it will also force the export and import prices to still be negotiated in USD or Euros and then the Iraqi's will have to convert at their home banks. (in my opinion)

I don't see how this is in line with the statements in all the news articles we have seen lately about raising the buying power of the dinar to a point where it becomes the currency of preference for the Iraqi people.

However, we will just have to wait and see who has made the correct assumptions and has arrived at the correct conclusions in our analysis of all the info.

And I also agree that Munny's post is very articulate and his and Elfwizard's posts in no way bashes anyone. That is so nice to see. In my opinion this is how you have a good discussion of both sides of the coin.
23-01-2007, 06:09 AM
MunnyBaggs

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cdn Scrooge

I agree with you Gloribee. I cannot for the life of me understand how a slow and gradual rise will help the average Iraqi citizen. It will take far too long for the Dinar to have an effective buying power that way. And it will also force the export and import prices to still be negotiated in USD or Euros and then the Iraqi's will have to convert at their home banks. (in my opinion)

I don't see how this is in line with the statements in all the news articles we have seen lately about raising the buying power of the dinar to a point where it becomes the currency of preference for the Iraqi people.

However, we will just have to wait and see who has made the correct assumptions and has arrived at the correct conclusions in our analysis of all the info.

And I also agree that Munny's post is very articulate and his and Elfwizard's posts in no way bashes anyone. That is so nice to see. In my opinion this is how you have a good discussion of both sides of the coin.

Thanks for the reply, Scrooge, I agree we are at a point where the infighting and bashing are no longer a help to any of us. I don't mind hard critique or questions of my theories or models. Sometimes that's when you get the best information out on the table. All of us want the same thing and that is a "Microsoft" type Return on our Investment (ROI). It's very rare, but I believe we are still VERY much on that path. Let's put it this way. Had I thought this investment was over and had no room to grow I would have "cashed out" all my IQD, put my logic and reasons for doing so out on the Forums, and said goodbye to all of you fellow investors long ago. The fact that I'm still EXTREMELY positive in our potential outcome is great news for all. YOU WANT ME ALL IN on this poker hand, my friends. Best of luck to all involved.
23-01-2007, 02:06 PM
frathousemicrowave

Quote:

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

The fact that I'm still EXTREMELY positive in our potential outcome is great news for all. YOU WANT ME ALL IN on this poker hand, my friends. Best of luck to all involved.

You got that right, once you start to get negative on this is when I will start to worry. Get over your self please.
24-01-2007, 06:31 AM
MunnyBaggs

Quote:

Originally Posted by frathousemicrowave

You got that right, once you start to get negative on this is when I will start to worry. Get over your self please.

One critical component of our eventual success will be President Bush's new Baghdad security plan. Thus we are in critical mode and in the 11th hour of knowing which direction this investment will take and the outcome of Iraq. I do rub elbows with military personel and am told there is a high confidence this plan will work and that we are near a "tipping point" in Iraq. Thus your worries can be placed on hold for the near term. I'll let you know any new direction or information I receive. Until then it is best we all continue to search for clues. These are the clues that lead to the utlimate conclusions which I have reached.
24-01-2007, 06:52 AM
jedi17

Hi Munny....I have a quick question for you. I see your point and appreciate it, however how will a slow r/v keep speculators out? As we know, we can still get Dinar at any time. Does your theory take into speclators and the possible negative outcome of having to much currency out of country? Again, not bashing...just looking for some clarification.
25-01-2007, 06:49 AM
MunnyBaggs

Quote:

Originally Posted by jedi17

Hi Munny....I have a quick question for you. I see your point and appreciate it, however how will a slow r/v keep speculators out? As we know, we can still get Dinar at any time. Does your theory take into speclators and the possible negative outcome of having to much currency out of country? Again, not bashing...just looking for some clarification.

Excellent question. Keep in mind the Iraqis have underpriced (in a manner of speaking) the IQD for over 3 years now. Part of that was a requirement by the IMF for the CBI to prove stability. Remember under the Saddam regime the Dinar was very unstable and values fluctuated wildly. Thus for 3 years the CBI put a cap on IQD value in the 1470 range with a few trial runs at value increase or decrease. They did a great job in true sense.

As far as speculators the Iraqis are fine with it at this stage. They are pulling some of the Dinar back into the banks, thus limiting outside supply to what is already out there. The CBI has a very healthy money exchange industry going on. Street money sellers are the ones not happy with IQD value increases. But thus far they have seen that their business is still very brisk. These sellers must buy IQD from Iraqi banks at a new "premium" price of 1295 to $1. This brings hard cash reserves into the banks which will help build required reserve amounts. They also benefit from any exchange fees charged. As they increase the IQD price, they make much higher profits because they "bought back" a ton of IQD at the lowest prices and continue to do so even at the current price.

The Iraqis are under NO obligation to keep moving the IQD value higher and higher in order to "pay off" speculators. They can fix or peg it at any time and any level they see most beneficial to their people and economy. While there are some similarities to a stock, currencies are not exactly like stocks. And nobody loses big in this "pyramid" scheme type investment. True the people who get in the earliest (us :smile: ) will walk out with the highest profit. Just for the sake of arguement let's say their final target rate is .10. Those of us in it now make astronomical returns. Those that "speculate" at say .09 STILL MAKE A PROFIT!!! Not as big, but some profit is made. Maybe those that speculate at .095 might break even or even lose slightly. Hey, tough cookies. Too bad they did not jump in at .0007 (us :smile: ) or .004, or .002, or .01. Too bad, so sad. The Iraqi Government is under NO obligation to pay off every speculator on their currency.