(I hope this is the right place for me to post.)
At any rate, thank you all from the "think tank" thread for your warm response...I will do my best...and only ask that you continue to show me kindness in the event that I disappoint.
My predictions are that the NID will revalue to an amount between 1.33NID and 3.12NID against the US dollar, and that the date of the RV will lie between December 29th, 2006 and January 8th, 2007. I am pretty confident of these numbers, according to the results of my studies.
In my earlier post, I asserted that I will use only data which we at rolclub have posted, agreed upon and accepted as true.
Neno has clearly asked that posts be made at the length of 50.000 words...so I will limit myself to just three parameters and will explain the weighting I have given to each. I am sure that other members will be able to suggest additional data bases and be able to apply the weightings which I have found useful...and, of course, to put forth weightings of their own devising.
The three data groups are:
1.) The Iraqi fiscal year will begin afresh during my suggested time frame;
2.) There is now a consensual, elected government in place (for the most part male) subject to the wishes of it's constituents...and that fully one-half of those constituents are female, and;
3.) The Iraqi officials have promised their constituents 10,000NID, plus additional moneys which can be used for dwellings and to begin businesses.
I believe we have pretty well taken these data groups to be accepted fact here at rolclub.
We can therefore move on to judging their weight and meaning - their importance to any predictions we may feel moved to make.
At the outset, I would like to posit clear definitions of some of the acronysms we frequently see in rolclub postings as well as some which I propose anew:
1.) BURF (not barf) which I propose as shorthand for "bureaucratic effect";
2.) GOI - which stands for "grinding on indefinitely";
3.) ISX - "Ibraham says NOT!";
4.) CBI - "clearly beyond infinity";
5.) M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, etc. - "Mother of" (noun...as in "war");
6.) WWWWAG - "Wanting, Willing, Willful Wild-Ass Guess";
and MOST important
7.) NMWFFY - "no more warm fuzzy for you" T - for tonight
TW - for this week
TM - for this month
TY - for this year
EA - ever again.
BURF is known in all cultures (cross-cultural constant) from time immemorial as being that omnipotent force which can bring all rational progress to a grinding stop (GOI can apply here) without being subject to appeal of any kind.
BURF as I apply it in this instance is directed to RV.
KNOWN to bureaucrats is the FACT that financial changes may not occur during an ongoing fiscal year. Witness the collective effect of:
"That's not within our jurisdiction";
"My superior has left for the day/week/month/year/eternity, so he is not available to speak with you;
"Don't raise your voice to me";
"Our computers/pencils/wax tablets and styli are off-line at present";
and all the endless permutations of "you can't get there from here".
Is why the RV hasn't happened yet.
BUT...given the fact that the iraqi bureaucrats in the main are male - the RV will happen before January 8th, 2007, according to NMWFFY (as we shall see below), since the new fiscal year is about to begin.
The second data group clearly falls entirely within our NMWFFY weighting, given that the elected government officials are predominently male.
Finally, critical mass among Iraqi women, individually and collectively, was reached when the promise of thousands of NID apiece reached their ears (to be used for spending money and access to homes and businesses) - and they have the votes, time and money to influence their lives and men PLUS (and this is the biggie!) the sole existing supply of "the other thing" - WARM FUZZIES.
"Put down that silly AK-47 and get the lawnmower out" -or NMWFFY (T)
"Hold up the curtainrod with that thing while I get the stepladder so you can fix it -0h, fiddle, did you just HAVE to shoot the begonia?" - NMWFFY (TW).
"Prop open the car door with that thing and carry in the groceries for me, OK? - GEEZ Louise...I've told you and told you to keep that selector off automatic...you've blown all the windows out of the Mercedes" - NMWFFY (TM).
There really isn't a (TY)...gotta have little ones...and besides, women love to forgive.
And the Iraqi brothers aren't so dumb...they know that if they take the AK out for an evening walk instead of the dog that they may never have any warm fuzzies (E)ver (A)gain!
Anyway, you all see how it'll go.
I rest my case.
Almost forgot...the amounts of the RV as being between 1.33 and 3.12
WWWWAG, of course
