Thread: Let's Lighten Up - cont.

I'll bet some folks were really expectecting some sort of scientific statisticle prediction that would give them something to sink their teeth into and you come up with this????lmao! male iraqi's not getting sum so they gotta rv soon so the ladies can go shopping!!?? lolol well i can see this was supposed to be a joke.. but i wonder how many of these people have taken your (theories) seriously..lol hope no one got their hopes up on this one.. lol good luck all go dinar!!!

Very funny, I enjoyed it. I'm looking forward to more.

It was going well until those acronyms seeped into the post! And here I was expecting a statistical analysis that would confuse the heck out of me! Oh well...someday someone is bound to be right with the RV!

Fun post. I've decided to "lighten up" on the amount of posting for now. I understand the excitement of new investors I was there once. But I have a different excitement and maybe I've tried to convince people too hard and too fast to see it. To me the excitement comes in seeing a real investment evolve over time in a steady and sure manner. We're only over a month into it so I can see that some will still go with what has been the majority view of a quick overnight extremely high re-val. By March we will be 4 months into this and I think most will finally come to accept this is the best process for the CBI to use. We all want the same thing. Peace in Iraq which will lead to a spreading of Democracy (over a very long time frame) across the Middle East. It can happen and I fully believe it will happen. Happy Holidays to all and this Bud is for everyone involved:

Originally Posted by MunnyBaggs

Fun post. I've decided to "lighten up" on the amount of posting for now. I understand the excitement of new investors I was there once. But I have a different excitement and maybe I've tried to convince people too hard and too fast to see it. To me the excitment comes in seeing a real investment evolve over time in a steady and sure manner. We're only over a month into it so I can see that some will still go with what has been the majority view of a quick overnight extremely high re-val. By March we will be 4 months into this and I think most will finally come to accept this is the best process for the CBI to use. We all want the same thing. Peace in Iraq which will lead to a spreading of Democracy (over a very long time frame) across the Middle East. It can happen and I fully believe it will happen. Happy Holidays to all and this Bud is for everyone involved:

You allready had my respect as all do. But, now I'll post It. This is the way I see it too. Not really by your Munny Model, But by common since. I still dont understand the Iraqi (Government) ways that they do things, But I still also believe that there could be a drastic move. Only Time will tell. If the HCL and FIL finally come into Play along with the Opening of the ISX and the CBI still floats like the movement Now. Then Yes it will be a Great 2007. But there is still that Overnight Chance I believe in as well.

Originally Posted by neno

You allready had my respect as all do. But, now I'll post It. This is the way I see it too. Not really by your Munny Model, But by common since. I still dont understand the Iraqi (Government) ways that they do things, But I still also believe that there could be a drastic move. Only Time will tell. If the HCL and FIL finally come into Play along with the Opening of the ISX and the CBI still floats like the movement Now. Then Yes it will be a Great 2007. But there is still that Overnight Chance I believe in as well.

I've never ruled out a higher move and the gradual appreciation can speed up at the leisure of the CBI. I'm only going by the bylaws currently in place by the Central Bank and IMF. If the HCL will allow a % of oil revenue to cover foreign reserves for the banking sector then the IQD value increase can be higher and faster. Until that point I'll keep the model geared a bit more conservatively. Believe me most heavy investors in any investment would say even my model is extreme in it's projections. Let's let this unfold and see where it really ends up going.

Some have suggested that they'd like me to take a real try at predicting the real RV date and amount...after I sort of teased with my other two posts. 'Waaaay kind. Maybe I can earn my place in this family.

I'll give it a shot...my opinion, yes, but I'd rather call it something closer to profiling.

I do not have expertise with respect to politics or economics. I respect deeply those among us who do and sit at their knee in gratitude for the information they are so kind as to seek out and post. But I see facts as bare things and it is still left to us to sort, relate and weigh them in order to understand their relevance to the answers we seek.

For example: The iraqis have been "given" dinars (fact) and a time frame within which they would receive them (fact); but the dinars have not been disbursed (fact); even though the dinars are on hand (fact); and could be quickly delivered - within a couple of days or so (fact); and this will attract widespread attention among the recipients (fact); and are essentially valueless in their current state (fact).

Should we as prognosticators simply overlook these seemingly unrelated facts?

I see them as related and brilliant: because of the particular vantagepoint I take when looking at them...my frame of reference. I think it's because of our vesting in our frames of reference that we often can't make sense of facts which are plain before us...as these are.

(I do blushingly admit that I am a people watcher. I've learned over a pretty long lifetime that folks throughout the world and for all recorded history actually have a LOT in common. It's been called human nature.)

We must pay close attention to our frame of reference AS WELL as to facts. I for one in this matter, must guard my thinking, because I am without money. If (I far prefer when) this RV occurs, I will not become a burden on my children should I die in a costly fashion. The rest of you will have similar important concerns as you organize and weigh the facts.

My style is turgid...I apologize.

Let me skip the sassafras and get to the meat of what I am saying. I'll do that by suggesting some perspectives which I believe to be valuable. If we use these perspectives, the facts we view may make more sense.

1.) This whole affair is not about us (though we certainly have an interest) it is about the Iraqis.
2. Optimism and gratitude work.
3.) People in high positions are NEVER stupid or uncaring about their goals.
4.) The good in people will always advance humankind over the long run.
5.) Self-interest trumps just about everything.

This is a short list which will carry us closer to the answers we seek.

Let me run it past you:

BRIGHT leaders who care about the goals of freedom and wealth on behalf of the Iraqis (advancing) will be unfailingly OPTIMISTIC as they put before their constituents (pragmatic) the prospect of wealth soon to be in hand (pragmatic) as a means to sell (pragmatic) their doubting tribes an unfamiliar ideology - consensual government - in which the leaders put their own faith (self-interest). These BRIGHT leaders would have on hand the means as well as PR organs to get the word to the people. Self-interested leaders would expect gratitude in return from a gratified people and to be returned to their positions at a following election.

If you believe we are watching this like a treefull of owls, you sure can expect the Iraqis to be fascinated.

Another example: when the "jump" will occur. Seen from these perspectives and one more - fierce Iraqi pride (human nature) - we might postulate a date to jump as being after Christmas and before the first week in January ends. This would eliminate the perception that the Americans were dining out on them - they have their own holiday to celebrate - and the greater ease of starting fresh with a new fiscal year. BURF

A third example relates to the amount of the increase. I use the framework in such a way as to convince me that Iraqi leaders WILL NOTalter the gradual increments which are working, but WILL allow the gift dinars to reach an amount which will not be insultingly low, after raising the amount of increments (which I believe we are seeing) and will add to the people's feeling that this consensual government and their leaders are doing their jobs well on behalf of their people AND it'll just keep on getting betterfor them.

Maybe some of you would like to try looking carefully at your perspective/s.

Originally Posted by neno

You allready had my respect as all do. But, now I'll post It. This is the way I see it too. Not really by your Munny Model, But by common since. I still dont understand the Iraqi (Government) ways that they do things, But I still also believe that there could be a drastic move. Only Time will tell. If the HCL and FIL finally come into Play along with the Opening of the ISX and the CBI still floats like the movement Now. Then Yes it will be a Great 2007. But there is still that Overnight Chance I believe in as well.

good to see you with this level headed perspective neno...get comfortable,it may take a little while..but as i see it worst case scenario in three years ill be a millionaire :-) in the best case we'll be very pleasantly surprised at a overnight windfall!! but to keep expecting this every week will wear down the strongest of heart..this is the message ive been trying to get across with my posts because i can feel the letdown in the folks when these dates keep comming and going.. and it can get down right depressing....so everyone be of good cheer and know either way it goes were all winners in this!! Merry Christmas to all and God bless!

p.s. dont get me wrong i luv a good rumor, I think when we act as if its sure to happen is when we may do damage to others.. thanks