This distribution by the Iraqi Government to every Iraqi of a measly 10,000 IQD debit card continues to puzzle me. It really bugs me that the debit card is worth slightly less than $7 USD. This is completely ridiculous and a slap in the face of the Iraqis. Now if you imagine a 1:1 re-val and say there are 15 million adults receiving the card that would be 15,000,000 times $10,000 USD. That’s a total of $150,000,000,000 ($150 BILLION) USD to Iraqis. That’s not even counting the IQD most Iraqis already have plus the Billions sold outside the country of Iraq. So, what could or would be a more realistic value? We can look 6 years into the past and the tax cuts our US Government gave to us. True those with higher incomes got big bucks (and it’s a good thing cause I’d rather they have that money to invest rather than the Government to waste). But a lot of the everyday folks got $300 to $1,000 in tax breaks. Yet it made a HUGE impact on our overall economy. So let’s see what the potential re-vals could be to make the hand out worth something to the average Iraqi plus maybe make an impact on the Iraqi economy:
1:1 Each adult Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $10,000
1 IQD to .50 USD Each Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $5,000
1 IQD to .30 USD Each Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $3,000
1 IQD to .10 USD Each Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $1,000
1 IQD to .06 USD Each Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $600
1 IQD to .01 USD Each Iraqi gets 10,000 IQD worth $100
So, even though a re-val to a .06 level is around an 8,000% increase if you look at it from the standpoint of an average Iraqi actually feeling like he “got something” .05 to .10 is not a totally unrealistic start to our adventure…….
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Thread: The $7 debit card dilemma.
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31-10-2006, 06:57 AM #1
The $7 debit card dilemma.
Munny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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31-10-2006, 09:34 PM #2
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One Time Payment?
Hey Money,
Is this a one time payment or a monthly payment? Doesn't the Kuwaiti's receive $40,000 a year?
2B
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31-10-2006, 09:50 PM #3
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31-10-2006, 11:38 PM #4
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Someone asked for this response.
You know Munny
The only problem with your theory is that you have not accounted for the Regional Issue.
The MOF of Iraq has on more than one occasion cited the problem that shortages of goods inside Iraq was directly related to the price disparity between Iraq and its neighbors. I've said it before its a regional concern.
Yet it is not just a matter of inflation in Iraq but also deflation in the region, which as you know strains the currency rates locally. We both know what the ramifications of that are in the local economies.
Smugglers take the goods and sell them in Jordan where they can make a killing on those goods because the currency rate is so much higher, therefore the price of goods are reflected in a higher price as a result yielding to the smuggler their profit. They will continue to do it unless things change quickly.
Recently we read that the neighboring countries were concerned about solving all Iraqi issues in order to prevent the issues of economic unrest from spilling over into their respective countries. Lets face it, economically needy folks are more inclined to grasp at any answer to either fix their problem or vent their anguish. Knowing the religious mind set in the region it’s easy to see that they will tear the region apart without change.
There are only two ways to achieve parity IMO. One unlikely way is to lower the prices in all the neighboring countries and therefore lower the rates of the said currencies. IE imports would cost the locals more and upset portions of the global economy. The other is to raise the rate of the dinar in order to match prices in the region.
This action does not increase the buying power of the Iraqis but it does solve the concern among nations that Iraqi economic unrest could kindle a larger regional conflict if the issue is not addressed. If left unattended civil unrest within the peoples of the surrounding countries will undoubtedly occur.
As far as increasing the livelihood of Iraqis, well that is what FIL, the International compact and the HCL are all about.
So it’s not just a matter of crunching numbers, it’s a matter of what is going to stabilize the region and the higher rate as the MOF insists upon is key and the reports say sooner rather than later is also key.
I’m agreeing with the MOF of Iraq as he affirms that the position of the state who insists a currency rate of 1.48 USD I think they will follow the German model in regards to this and not a graduated increase of the rate. Political unrest will not afford the region the slow grow theorem. It would be playing Russian Roulette.
Six cents is nearly a 9000% increase but it is also nearly 2500% lower than Iraq insists upon.Last edited by wciappetta; 31-10-2006 at 11:58 PM.
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02-11-2006, 07:36 AM #5
Thanks, Ward. I'll go ahead and update all our responses to save time and retyping:
Munny replied: Why are you so selective in your choice of what the MOF says??? When he was advocating zero lop you, I, and every IQD investor went tough upside his head. Many wanted him fired. He will have "some" say in the final IQD value but CBI and Shibibi have the transparency and autonomy to make the final call. The big difference between your Regional view and mine is which neighboring countries we're talking about. The yaysayers make the mistake of thinking currency exchange rate is the biggest factor in showing what a countries' wealth is. That is totally wrong. Japan is one of the wealthiest countries on Earth, yet trades 117 Yen to 1 USD. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan (the neighbors yaysayers believe Iraq will mimmick) all have far higher exchange rates than Saudi Arabia yet S.A. is far wealthier than those countries. Their stock value (as D_T has proven) is higher and their GDP blows away those countries. If you look at my regional comparison tables, you'll clearly see Tant, Shibibi, CBI, etc were setting the denominations and future value increases towards Saudi, Quatar, and UAE. It's actually the best position for the Iraqis to have their currency slated at.
Anyway, we still do not know what the real outcome is until the CBI makes the monetary adjustment. They (not us or MOF) get the final call. I hope they "yays" have it right, but every logic and calculation I work on concerning IQD points to .10 to .31. Best of luck to all of us in any scenario.
wciappetta wrote: That's my point I have always maintained that the Zero lop comments were spin, that he let slip information that was never meant to be public resulting in damage control since that moment.....and I care less what Dr. ."Q" Has to say about it either. I don't trust that guy.
He never said lop he always meant RV and his more recent comments I believe reveal that fact. besides history is on my side and Japan doesn't fit the regional makeup. You can only make the case for japan in asia.
In any case I agree that things are happening and we will be wealthier than we are now.. I'm just thinking it will be a bit higher than you realize.
By the way you have that Bank of Baghdad figure backwards, it should read .31 dinar =1 USD or 3.22 USD
"I would to inform all the stockholders of Baghdad Bank that the report of the managing council 2004 was prepared according to the demands of Central Bank of Iraq to balance US dollar price to0.310 ID instead of its real value (1460) ID per 1 US dollar, so, the report and general budget do not necessarily reflect the actual situation of Baghdad Bank and the volume of economical incoming indexes, so, this report was issued in order to meet the demands of the rules and instructions."
It's either a poorly written english run on sentence or another poor translation. Simple math shows it is 1 IQD/.31 USD not 1 IQD/3.22 USD. Word value of currency estimates are around $45 Trillion USD total. (Here's one cool calculation Error. Or you could use GDP from cia fact book estimate of World value at $60 Trillion (written out that is $60,000,000,000,000). Why would BoB use $3.22 as the figure? The M2 of Iraq currency per CBI reporting is around 17 Trillion IQD. If CBI were to re-val the IQD to equivalent of $3.22 USD that would give Iraq a currency value of $54.7 TRILLION USD!!!! This one country would have more money than the entire World combined!!!! If you add the top 4 nations GDP value (USA, EU, China, Japan) it would total $36.8 Trillion!!!! Common sense and logic show this is not possible. But I do realize yaysayers ignore little facts such as Iraqi 17 Trillion printed IQD currency or the 9 Trillion IQD which is outside Iraqi banks per CBI reporting.Munny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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02-11-2006, 08:32 AM #6
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Munny ive been following your post since back in the day at the IIF...you make so very valid points to your argument. I appreciate it and your opinion as many people dislike them. Then on the other hand Ward has a point too about you cant have a currency so low that the neighboring countries like jordan that has a high exchange rate making iraqis export goods smugling across the border to make a killing not keeping the GDP with in its own borders. Do i make any kind of sense here?? I am lost on what to think,,,i just hope something happens and happens soon as the news and all the talk point to something is gonna happen sooner rather than later.. Ward id like to see you debate this post by Munny or any other member susie or adster you are knowlegable and are shinning stars of the forum....GK where you at your an economics guy with good insight your highly respected in my book. Paynes post make alot of sense too and history dose repeat it self and he has so many great insights to what is happening. Munny what do you think of paynes insight and posts??
Use common sense...the world may just start look different....its always fun to dream...and you never know they may come true ONE DAY
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03-11-2006, 12:56 AM #7
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Thank You
Very good recap that I can understand. But I still think it will be in the 1 to 1 range in order to cut down on the black market trade that is impeding their economy. I think the $3.22 rate will happen a few years down the road, so I will hold some in reserve.
But again, thanks. Very good post!
OSOK
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03-11-2006, 03:39 AM #8
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To complete the thought
Just so we complete the discussion here are some final points:
Well here is another interesting confirmation of my point.
This link is to the CBI. At the bottom of each page a reference is given to the value of the Iraqi Dinar as of 2002. Considering that the website wasn’t up till 2004 it would appear that the CBI is acknowledging the 2002 rate a real rate…..and that is 3.2169 USD to the Iraqi Dinar
Translated version of http://www.cbiraq.org/Binder12.pdf
I quote: 3:Parity Value of Iraqi Dinar By Dollar (3.2169)
Gee it reminds me of when the MOF says , “ Returning to the Former Rate”
Plus we also have the IMF. The exchange rate per the IMF in 2002 and up until September of 2003 was 2.53758 SDRs which is about $3.22.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/...sition_flag=YES
Now I still understand the point you are making but you cannot ignore these reports by the official sources either. So again we have two choices, slow grow or peg and I believe the political climate as cited recently by the official reports point to the latter.
Also obliging your 17 trillion theory, citing this official evidence would prove a .75 cents USD at the minimum.
But then again, its just that there are all those darn official documents
In any case we are soon to find out that answer right?
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03-11-2006, 07:29 AM #9
Thanks, tank, for your kind reply. I fully realize the need to increase IQD value for a multitude of reasons. The CBI has already stated this will happen. The debate is by how much and how soon will they make those moves. The very latest IMF/CBI information releases clearly state it will be a gradual IQD value increase starting at a projected 1345 IQD to 1 USD by end of this year. Curbing high inflation, ease of exchange, and purchasing power are the main ones. The smuggling is only partially a fault of the exchange rate. The real problem was the extremely low USD conversion value placed on the oil. Iraq's oil minister under directive of the IMF have increased the price of Iraqi oil trying to get it on par with the other regional nations. That should help curb this problem. But security and corruption are equally at fault here. You just can't have renegade tankers siding up to the silo, filling up, and shipping this oil anywhere they want. Security is now being implemented along with the price increase. IQD value increase will help some but even if that were never to happen they can increase actual oil prices and security to solve the problem. In fact that is the process they are working on as we type this.
Last edited by MunnyBaggs; 03-11-2006 at 07:31 AM.
Munny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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03-11-2006, 07:32 AM #10
TABLE D
All this information has been culled from the World Factbook:
GDP Purchasing Power parity World Ranking. Note Iraq rates closest to UAE, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Note Iraq’s purchasing parity will increase as does its economy:
21. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD $562 Billion
30. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD $388 Billion
34. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD $303 Billion
54. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD $154 Billion
59. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD $111 Billion
61. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD $94 Billion
68. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD $72 Billion
71. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD $66 Billion
82. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD $45 Billion
90. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD $40 Billion
104. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD $27 Billion
108. Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD $24 Billion
109. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD $24 Billion
113. Afghanistan 1 Afg = .023 USD $22 Billion
127. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD $16 Billion
Natural Gas proven Reserves World Ranking. Once again note which countries Nat Gas wealth Iraq most closely resembles (Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar). Iraq may even have far more reserves than are listed here:
3. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD 27 Trillion (cu m)
4. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD 26 Trillion (cu m)
5. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD 7 Trillion (cu m)
6. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD 6 Trillion (cu m)
12. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD 3 Trillion (cu m)
20. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD 1.9 Trillion (cu m)
24. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD 1.6 Trillion (cu m)
25. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD 1.3 Trillion (cu m)
29. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD 829 Billion (cu m)
44. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD 241 Billion (cu m)
54. Afghanistan 1 Afg = .023 USD 100 Billion (cu m)
56. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD 92 Billion (cu m)
54. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD 39 Billion (cu m)
84. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD 6 Billion (cu m)
Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD N/A
Proven oil Reserves World Ranking. Note once again where Iraq falls in oil wealth (Saudi Arabia, UAE). Note also Iraq has only 10% of known oil reserves surveyed. They could actually have as much oil as Saudi Arabia:
2. Saudi Arabia 1 SAR = .27 USD 263 Billion (bbl)
4. Iran 1 Rial = .0001 USD 133 Billion (bbl)
5. Iraq 1 IQD = .0007 USD 113 Billion (bbl)
6. UAE 1 Dirham = .27 USD 98 Billion (bbl)
7. Kuwait 1KD = 3.4 USD 97 Billion (bbl)
10. Libya 1 LYD = .73 USD 40 Billion (bbl)
17. Qatar 1 QR = .27 USD 16 Billion (bbl)
22. Oman 1 ORial = 2.6 USD 6 Billion (bbl)
31. Egypt 1 EP =.17 USD 2.7 Billion (bbl)
32. Syria 1 SYP = .019 USD 2.5 Billion (bbl)
67. Bahrain 1BD = 2.7 USD 124 Million (bbl)
88. Israel 1 NS = .22 USD 1.9 Million (bbl)
90. Jordan 1 JD = 1.4 USD 6 Billion (bbl)
Afghanistan 1Afg = .023 USD N/A
Lebanon 1 LP = .0007 USD N/ALast edited by MunnyBaggs; 03-11-2006 at 07:35 AM.
Munny Model IQD Value Projections
Range 1345 IQD/1 USD to 1 IQD/.27 USD:
1345 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1260 Target ACHIEVED!!!
1100 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 5, 2008
810 IQD/1 USD by July 5, 2008
500 IQD/1 USD by Jan. 3, 2009
300 IQD/1 USD by Apr. 18, 09
1 IQD/.01 USD by Aug. 8, 09
1 IQD/.27 USD by Sept. 12, 09
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