What if one of the wings of first trend breaks?!
Since the removal of Saddam Hussein, two trends have emerged in the new Iraq. The first trend aims at setting up a new political process through constitutional institutions, while the second aims at holding up the constitution and the wheel of the new political process.
The political figures of the first trend work explicitly- they are part of the political process and the constitutional apparatus, but the second trend works in both explicitly and clandestinely.
The second trend did its best to fuel sectarian strife between the Shias and Sunnis by all means as a scheme to plainly stop the political process and to overthrow the government, but it failed .It still tries the secret scheme through supporting military and combat operations of the armed groups against the government.
For now, this trend is working in the shadow of the constitutional institutions of the state and government; its members are in the official uniform of the apparatus and the laws of these institutions in order to stop the political process as well as generating and deepening crisis among the sides of the national unity government, namely between the two wings of the first trend.
The first trend is suffering from cracks and divergences stretched among its makeup on subsidiary issues, leaving the second trend playing in the arena like a mouse without someone to look out.
To my surprise, the first trend, even with all its common agreements, protocols and the joint historic strive, has left its teamwork and involved in internal disagreements. Regardless of the potential gravity that lie in the acts, attempts and the way the second trend is working in deepening the current cracks and divergences among the first trend to achieve its goal in stopping the political process and eventually overthrowing the government by a military coup through those military officers who are its followers, bearing in mind that their number in the army is growing.
The current government and the entire political process were formed and remained unwavering in the face of the differences among the first trend due to the cracks on one hand and the war waged by the second trend on the other. Had it not been for the persistence of one wing of the first trend in supporting the government, namely the Kurdistan Alliance, then the scale of the cracks among the first trend would have reached the point of the collapse of the national unity government few months from now.
The second trend along with other groups realize pretty well that without cutting off the Kurdish wing from the national unity government, it would be difficult to envision the collapse of the political process along with the current government.
Unfortunately, the second trend managed to create some kind of cracks between the conventional sides of the government and the Kurdistan Alliance, in the absence of genuine and profound understanding by some leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance and their allies from the consequences of the dangerous path which the second trend is following.
The more surprisingly is that some policies of the United Iraqi Alliance and its strategic allies have become key factors paving the way and providing free services for the efforts of the second trend that seeks to widen the gap between the Kurdistan Alliance (one of the first trends wings) and its strategic allies (the other wing) so as to break through this gap their long –waited goals.
The first trend which consists of the Kurdistan Alliance and its strategic allies along with other groups who have drawn from the national unity government, should change the way they are currently dealing with the second trend by not letting it unreservedly achieve its goals under the umbrella of the constitutional institutions and democracy, carrying out non constitutional policies to fuel the conflict between Kurds and the government.
Underestimating the policies of the second trend and citing them as scattered groups incapable of spoiling the ties among strategic allies, will constitute an incorrect approach and should be revised through rearranging the priorities between the two key wings of the government.
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