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Iraqi PM to announce Cabinet Amendments Soon
The Iraqi PM, Nouri al-Maliki will announce amendments in his government soon, MP Abdul Bari Zebari from Kurdistan Alliance Bloc (KAB) exclusively told PUKmedia today.
“It is expected the Iraqi PM to announce amendments in the current cabinet .The amendment will not cover ministers from Kurdistan Alliance Bloc.” MP Abdul Bari Zebari said.
He also dismissed new reports about the announcement of formation of a new parliamentary bloc in the Iraqi Council of Representatives including members from al-Iraqia bloc and other members from other blocs.
PUKmedia :: English - Iraqi PM to announce Cabinet Amendments Soon
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Small loans bring projects to life- economists
Iraqi economic experts praised the small loan scheme launched by some governmental and non-governmental organizations, and slammed the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing liquidity.
"Small loans have helped revive many projects which were on their way to extinction," an economic analyst, Husam al-Samouk, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), arguing that 90% of the country's 130 small projects are facing immense difficulties to survive.
"The remaining 10% operate at 20-50% of their capacity as a result of many obstacles, notably the shortage of raw material and power problems," al-Samouk indicated.
"The provision of simplified loans for owners of these projects will help drive forward the Iraqi economy and implement a real economic development," the analyst added.
Several banks as well as governmental and non-governmental organizations have offered loans to citizens, a policy that aims to set up new projects and develop existing ones.
Criticizing the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing its liquidity and raising the interest rate in an attempt to encourage people to increase their savings, al-Samouk said that the bank's policy has proved ineffective in reducing the price of basic goods.
"The only beneficiaries of this policy are speculators," al-Samouk explained.
Kamal al-Basiri, an Iraqi researcher, described the small loan scheme as a major attractor of investment in the country.
Al-Basiri criticized the Central Bank's policy of countering inflation by reducing its liquidity and raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, overlooking the country's need for a real economic growth.
The head of the non-governmental Arbil-based al-Thiqa (Trust) Organization, Ardmis Oganis, said that her organization has provided job opportunities for hundreds of individuals and monthly income for dozens of Iraqi families.
"Over 1,000 borrowers from Arbil province have benefited from our loans since the establishment of our organization in 2004," Oganis added.
The organization grants interest-free loans of $500-$25,000 to be repaid in 16 months, she explained.
Aswat Aliraq
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Pumping oil from Kirkuk to Turkey's Ceyhan still ceased – source
Oil pumping activities from Kirkuk's northern fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain halted since Monday, an official source form the North Oil Company said on Saturday.
"The stoppage is due to the fact that Ceyhan's oil reservoirs are totally full with Iraqi crude oil," the source, who requested anonymity, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
The export process "was before the stoppage going at a capacity of 150,000-200,000 barrels per day (bpd)," he said.
The source did not say when the oil pumping would resume but said the date to re-pump oil to Ceyhan has to do with the unloading of oil reservoirs there."
An official source in the North Oil Company told VOI on Monday that oil pumping to Ceyhan "stopped but would resume during the next 72 hours."
Iraq's oil exports from the south oilfields often stop because armed groups target oil pipelines, a matter that costs Iraq large losses.
The largest part of Iraqi oil is exported via the southern oilfields in the province of Basra, which overlooks the Gulf.
The oil-rich city of Kirkuk lies 250 km northeast of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
http://www.aswataliraq.info/look/eng...=2&NrSection=2
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Iraqi economy in 2007
Iraqi economy has experienced a relative advancement last year in several economic sectors, the most distinguished ones were those disclosed by the state budget through the financial allocations which amounted to about 41 billion dollars, 10 billion for investments and 27 billion for operating expenses and the remaining for governmental support.
The Iraqi Central Bank had the main role in the economic scene when it adopted a strict monetary policy to fight inflation and reduce its levels; to achieve that raised the Iraqi dinar exchange rate for foreign currencies as well as interest rates in Iraqi banks. The results of this policy were the remarkable low rates of inflation and the retreat of the dollar exchange rate against the Iraqi dinar from 1448 dinars per dollar during 2006 to 1225 dinars at the end of this year.
There was also the International Pledge Covenant signed at Sharm el-Sheikh resort, and it was a mutual commitment between Iraq and the international community to provide all sorts of economic and political support to Iraq. The Covenant included a set of economic axes to support the reconstruction and development of Iraq's economy. Observers looked positively to Iraqi negotiators' efforts during the same year to extinguish $140 billion of the debts accumulated on it. However, these efforts failed to persuade the Gulf States to reduce or extinguish part of the debts which amount to about $40 billion, and Kuwait refused reduce its cut which is %5 of Iraqi oil exports under the Security Council resolutions.
As for the other productive sectors, opinions differed on the extent of successes to overcome the crises they suffered from; in oil sector, oil exports ranged between 1.5 and 1.7 million barrels a day at a time The Ministry of Petroleum sought to raise those figures to two million barrels per day, and this quest coincided with a significant rise in oil prices which are indications to the high oil revenues, while the Ministry of Finance did not disclose the investment increases in financial resources resulting from the high oil prices. The electricity sector has witnessed no progress because of many important factors like the security situation, the reluctance of foreign companies to invest in Iraq and the lack of control of the Ministry of Electricity over the available energy production. The activity of the agricultural and industrial sectors decreased and they achieved no positive results because of the lack of investment allocations for them. The banking sector has witnessed no development at the level of performance and continued its work without ambitions despite hints on the establishment of regional development banks to be supportive financial institutions of the provinces' projects. The private sector is still not active for reasons such as the non-activation of the Investment Law No. 13 of 2006, and the reluctance of Arab and foreign investments to enter the country. Other sectors especially transport, communications and housing have witnessed slow steps and their performance did not rise to the planned level.
Iraqi economy in 2007
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The dollar exchange rate will not change for the time being
The expert at the Iraqi Central Bank, Majid Al-Souri, said that the decrease in the dollar value is caused by the large speculation among Iraqi traders in the currency sale field, pointing out that the Iraqi Central Bank does not intend to raise the value of the dinar against the dollar for the time being, noting that the value of the dollar is still equal to 1214 dinars in the Central Bank's auctions. He explained that the Central Bank is quite serious in fighting inflation and that part of its monetary policy is to maintain the value of the dollar against the dinar, but not so fast as to confuse the local market. He pointed out that the dollar is down *********, particularly in countries which trade in that currency in import and export operations and Iraq may witness the same case in future.
Selling and buying have seen considerably confused in the past few days because of the decline in the value of the dollar against the dinar, reaching below 1110 sometimes and that is far less than the selling price in the Central Bank, which caused great confusion in most markets of Baghdad, and fears of a continued decline, especially among banking offices and traders who are using the dollar in sale and purchase . However, the local market is relatively stable, especially that prices did not drop down despite the significant decline of the dollar because of the great demand by the people just before Eid Al-Adha, and the Christmas celibrations...
Trader, Iyad Al-Zeidi, says that devaluating the dollar is just a (game) created by some speculators and currency traders to absorb as much dollars as they can, and sell them at high prices to the Central Bank which is still buying this currency at 1214 dinars per dollar, and that figure is greater than the selling price of the dollar during these days.
Magid Al-Souri says that the monetary policy of the Central Bank aims to eliminate inflation; the Bank has sought previously to reduce the value of the dollar, but now it is stable at 1214 and there is no intention of decreasing it more in the time being. However, the monetary policy of the Central Bank is not fixed and it can change according to the economic situation, pointing out to the possibility of raising the price of the dollar if the exports increased in future.
Professor of fiscal policy at the University of London, Shakir Lateef said that raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar serves the interests of Iraqi people and it is also useful to Iraqi importers who deal in the dollar and import from countries which trade using this currency as well, since there will be difference in profits to them. However, he stressed the need for a kind of balance between fiscal policy and monetary policy, and a sort of balance between the dollar and the dinar.
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=5269
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Al Maliki stresses on Iraq reconciliation
Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki stressed from London on his commitment to the Constitution in all political issues affirming that national reconciliation is the threshold of the government’s work. In a statement to Sharq Al Awsat Newspaper, Al Maliki clarified that accusations saying that he’s against national reconciliation are untrue and are based on the fact that he’s refusing to use the reconciliation to partition the country. He considered that some politicians do not want reconciliation but are calling to take part in sharing Iraq’s heritage stressing that he seeks to renounce apportionment. Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki noted that the latest reconciliation took place between Iraqi Army, Police, tribes and different components of the society, adding that circumstances are ready for the major reconciliation.
Al Maliki explained that God All Mighty and himself have supported Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha and his brother Ahmad Abu Risha and that he provided Anbar Province with more than it needs from police members and required back up on administrative and provincial levels.
In another context, Al Maliki affirmed that his government supports Awakening Councils but fears they would be violated, noting that a large number of Awakening members will join the police and Army according to specified features regarding health, age, diploma, background, criminal and intelligence records.
Al Maliki urged to distinguish between real Awakening members and those who have taken advantage of these councils to carry out criminal operations out of the disbanded Baath Party policies and Al Qaeda.
On the other hand, Iraqi Prime Minister underlined that his government has good relations with Kurdistan region, political powers and Kurdish commandments; however, these relations are run by the Constitution and the national reconciliation. He added that oil issue is bound to Constitutional rules because all Iraqi people have right to the oil wealth. Al Maliki asserted that there are contacts with leaders of Al Sadr Bloc, announcing that Al Sadr Bloc is committed to the country’s security. He noted that the new direction of Sayyed Moqtada Al Sadr and his bloc has given a chance to security stability.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Iraq News | Al Maliki stresses on Iraq reconciliation
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Talabani denies KC plans to quit Maliki govt.
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani denied on Saturday that the Kurdistan Coalition (KC) was planning to quit Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's national unity government due to failure of late last year's negotiations between the two sides.
"We advocate dialogue and negotiation with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in order to reach a solution for all issues. There are no plans by the KC to quit the national unity government," Talabani said in a joint press conference with Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud ala-Barazani after their meeting in the Docan retreat in the Kurdish province of al-Sulaimaniya.
The KC is the second largest bloc in Iraq's parliament with 55 out of a total 275 seats.
A high-ranking delegation led by Iraq's Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Nejervan al-Barazani had paid a visit to Baghdad early last month for talks with the central government on article 140 of the Iraqi constitution pertaining to Kirkuk, the Kurdish peshmerga forces' appropriations and oil contracts signed by the autonomous region with a number of foreign companies, which were objected by the central government.
According to statements by Kurdish officials then, the delegation returned to Iraqi Kurdistan with zero outcome.
Meanwhile, Talabani and Barazani denounced the bombing that occurred in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir.
"We denounce the bombing and consider it as an act of antagonism against the Turkish people. We believe that these criminal operations are carried out by groups that want to mar Turkish-Kurdish relations," Talabani said.
The Iraqi foreign ministry had released a statement on Saturday in which it strongly condemned the "terrorist sabotage" in Diyarbakir, which killed or wounded scores of innocent civilians in Turkey.
Recent months have seen tension in Iraqi-Turkish relations due to the activities of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) against the Turkish forces in northern Iraq. Turkey considers the PKK, or Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan in Kurdish, as "terrorist" group.
On negotiations with Iran to demark their joint borders and the fate of the Algiers agreement signed in 1975 between the two sides, Talabani replied that "there is an Iraqi delegation in Iran at the moment to negotiate this affair."
The Iraqi leader dismissed reports that the United States has anything to do with the negotiations.
"Don't forget that it was (the former U.S. Secretary of State) Henry Kissinger who engineered the Algiers agreement," Talabani said.
The Iraqi and Iranian sides are now having negotiations on the re-demarcation of borders, including the Shatt al-Arab area, away from the Algiers agreement, some of whose items are objected by the Iraqi sides. The agreement caused ignited a crisis between the two neighboring countries last month after Talabani gave statements taken by the Iranian side as an announcement to cancel the agreement.
Aswat Aliraq
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Investment opportunities conference between Iran and Iraq starts off
The investment opportunities conference in the fields of oil and gas between Iraq and Iran have started in Tehran to discuss joint cooperation between both countries and enhance relations in oil investment, extraction and refining fields in addition to oil and gas pipelines and petrochemical industries. Iranian economic and Finances Minister Daoud Jaafari noted in the opening speech that both countries can work together in order to supply the world market with oil needs in the future.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Economics News | Investment opportunities conference between Iran and Iraq starts off
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Fears of third oil shock loom over
Are we on the verge of a third oil shock after reaching record prices of fuel barrels following oil shocks of 1973 during the fourth Arab-Israeli war and the Iranian-Iraqi war in early eighties.
Oil prices marked a record high in New York stock market for the first time in history as the barrel’s price exceeded 100 $. The increase is due to the decline of US stocks for the seventh time in a raw in addition to the political crisis mainly Iranian nuclear crisis and sabotage acts targeting petroleum facilities in Nigeria, the largest African export country. Moreover, the decrease of US dollar exchange rate in comparison with other currencies especially Euro contributes to increase oil prices.
Furthermore, political and economic drift inside OPEC escalate the crisis as the oil organization fails to deal with record high prices.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Economics News | Fears of third oil shock loom over
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Analysis: Iraq's '08 fate -- Basra, Kirkuk
Iraq's crude capital, Basra, and perhaps its most controversial city, Kirkuk, also flush with oil, face a formidable 2008.
The futures of both depend on how the post-2003 power vacuum plays out, though the latter could be settled with a political compromise in Baghdad.
In Basra, after nearly five years of a U.S. occupation that focused on sectarian divisions, intra-Shiite politics have taken hold.
"It is about the struggle for control of the most important governorate in Iraq, in terms of the oil economy," said Reidar Visser, editor of the Iraq Web site historiae.org and an Iraq expert at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. "This struggle is by no means decided yet. It's not over by any sense."
Last year ended on what seemed to be a high note. A week before the British handed over the security file to Iraqi officials, the leading political and religious parties signed an agreement on the division of power and rights in a relatively sovereign Basra.
"This sort of agreement … either there is no substance or some very important concessions must have been made," Visser said. "The struggle is still there and the parties are still there. We have no convincing sign that there's any dramatic change in this basic struggle. It's just that the surface looks calmer right now."
Nearly 80 percent of Iraq's 115 barrels of proven oil reserves -- the world's third largest -- are located in or around Basra, where the struggle is largely between three political parties -- and their militias: the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which is a major partner in the governing coalition in Baghdad; the Fadhila Party, which has withdrawn its smaller presence from the coalition but dominates Basra's government; and the Sadr Movement, which isn't largely represented on the Basra Council but maintains a presence in the province itself.
All three had a busy 2007 in political and gun battles in and outside Basra.
Sadr and ISCI waged an often bloody pitch for control over the eight other provinces south of Baghdad, where the winner would control not only the non-Basra oil but Karbala and Najaf, holy cities in Shiite Islam.
Fadhila and Sadr militias gunned it out in the streets of Basra but ended the year on a more conciliatory note.
And ISCI organized a Basra provincial council removal of the Fadhila Party governor of the province. The governor has not relinquished power, and the consequences of the power struggle have likely not unfolded.
"The situation in Basra is an extension of what you see in the other governorates south of Baghdad where everywhere there are struggles between the Supreme Council and a sort of Sadrist-led opposition," Visser said. "But the stakes are so much higher in Basra. That makes the big difference. That makes it into a unique case."
Iraq produced an average of little more than 2 million barrels per day last year, and except for an uptick in northern production and exports from Kirkuk in the past few months, most came from Basra. The northern pipeline to Turkey has been largely out of commission since 2003. Nearly all of Iraq's exports of about 1.7 million bpd were sent to market from Basra's ports.
"That Basra's oil industry is working is what keeps the Iraqi government in business, to the extent that it is in business," said Juan Cole, Middle East expert at the University of Michigan and editor of the Web site Informed Comment. "Were it to be interrupted in the way that the Kirkuk fields production or Kirkuk exports have been interrupted, frequently over the past four years, I think really would have spelled the end of the Iraqi government. So the good news is that they got it working and it is bringing in income."
Working is relative, as is much in Iraq. There is little oversight on the oil, such as metering, and a black market in oil and fuels is booming, "which is going into the hands of parties and their militias," Cole said.
He said the agreement the Basra parties reached last month could be more like "the kind of peace pact that the five mafia families in New York would make, which is to sort of recognize each other's turf."
"The danger is that it could easily break down," Cole added, noting Iraq's military was sent down last year to tamp the upheaval and was immediately sidelined. "Then what could anybody do about it?"
In April, provinces will be allowed to form regions of their own, like the three provinces that make up the Kurdistan Regional Government. It's a date certain to try the tenuous treaty.
"Basra could muddle along or it could easily descend into a spiral of violence that in turn could disrupt the oil production and export in significant ways," Cole said, "which in turn could have a very deleterious effect on the Baghdad government."
In 2008, when Baghdad isn't looking south, most eyes will be north, where an 11th-hour agreement was reached last month over the fate of Kirkuk. It's a historically Kurdish city, with a sizeable Turkomen population, and was loaded with Sunni Arabs after Saddam Hussein forced Kurds and others out.
Kirkuk's oil reserves are estimated at between 11 billion and 15 billion barrels. The Kurds want it back. The 2005 constitution called for a referendum on the future of Kirkuk and other disputed territories by Dec. 31, 2007, but the political leadership in Baghdad and Irbil, the Iraqi Kurdistan capital, agreed to a delay.
"There's a window of opportunity now for six months," said Joost Hiltermann, the deputy director of International Crisis Group's Middle East program. He said the United Nations' Iraq office will focus on Kirkuk, as will the United States, to head off any breakdown in Iraq's government -- the Kurds are a needed coalition partner -- or an increase in violence.
Parliament held a tense session over the issue Thursday, the Voices of Iraq news agency reports.
The Kurdistan Regional Government has taken a hard line with Baghdad on this issue as well as other disputes over control and direction of Iraq's oil sector. Baghdad says the KRG's regional oil law and unilateral oil deals with foreign oil firms are illegal. But the Kurds maintain their semiautonomy gives them the right to develop an extremely potential but as yet undiscovered crude bonanza in their northern territories without central control.
In Kirkuk, as in Basra, power over crude equals power absolute, and the first six months of 2008 could largely determine Iraq's fate.
International Security - Energy - Analysis - UPI.com
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Kirkuk debate continues over vote
Iraq's Parliament and the oil-rich Kirkuk provincial council are divided on a constitutional referendum to decide the province's fate.
It's a disputed territory following the wrath of Saddam Hussein, and the future of it and other disputed territories was to be decided in a referendum by Dec. 31, 2007.
An 11th-hour deal brokered by the United Nations allowed for a six-month extension to the deadline.
On Thursday, Iraqi parliamentarians disputed what the next step should be, the Voices of Iraq news agency reports, with some considering the constitutional provision void after missing the original deadline.
They'll take up the issue again Jan. 7.
The provincial council, however, demanded in a special session a referendum be held by the end of May 2007, IraqSlogger.com reports.
Kirkuk holds between 11 billion and 15 billion barrels of Iraq's proven oil reserves of 115 billion barrels. The Iraqi Kurdistan region wants the historically Kurdish province to be incorporated into its area. Many Arabs and Turkomen are against it, wanting to keep it under Baghdad's watch.
Saddam Hussein, seeking to keep tabs on the oil and disrupt any Kurdish unity, kicked out Kurds and others, replaced them with Arabs, and redrew the boundaries of northern provinces.
International Security - Energy - Briefing - UPI.com
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The internal struggle for the Iraqi oil law continues
A year has passed since the landmark deadline of December 2006, which was ‘publicly’ imposed by the IMF, the Iraqi Study Group (ISG), the US administration and the International Oil companies (IOCs) on the Iraqi government to deliver the long awaited Iraqi oil law.
But it still seems that we are no closer today to seeing the new law approved than we were back in December 2006.
In an August 22, 2007 “What is holding up the delivery of the long-awaited Iraqi oil law,” I covered the history, the background and the political developments surrounding the controversy over the Oil Law, including all the external and internal factors behind the delays in its materialization.
I concluded that internal Iraqi factors were the main causes behind the hold-up of the new oil law.
The developments on the ground over the past four months proved the accuracy of this analysis. Therefore, this article should be read in conjunction with the earlier analysis and should be seen as a further step in bringing the debate surrounding the oil law up-to-date.
The Iraqi dynamics behind all the delays in the approval of the oil law have become more and more obvious over the previous few months. Their role in setting back the delivery of the oil law is becoming accepted by many International and by most Iraqi oil experts and analysts as the key factors bringing the progress on the oil law to a halt, as well as bringing some changes to US tactics on this benchmark.
In this analysis, I will cover the various internal Iraqi factors in more detail, as they have developed over the past few months.
1. The split between the Central Government/Oil Ministry in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The split on several issues involving the oil law has increased dramatically in the past four months between the above parties and has become public on a number of occasions.
This divide has widened due to the following factors:
First, there was the passing of the “Kurdish Oil law” by the KRG on August 6, 2007, which is mainly founded on Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) model agreements with the IOCs to develop oil production in the Kurdish region, without obtaining the approval of the federal government or awaiting the outcome of the federal oil law.
Second was the rush by the KRG to sign five PSC agreements with smaller IOCs, including DNO from Norway and others from Canada and Turkey, before the enactment of the Kurdish oil Law. These actions were followed by the signing of another fifteen PSC agreements since the passing of the law, without the consultation of the federal oil ministry in Baghdad, as well as having no provisions within the agreements for sharing revenues with the central government.
Third was the inclusion of areas which are located outside the recognized Kurdish region, such as some of the oil fields of the governorate of Ninewa. in the September 2007 PSC agreement with the US company, Hunt Oil (see Iraqi oil expert Faleh Al-Khayat, "KRG Assigns Khurmala Dome in the Kirkuk Field Unilaterally," Amman, Jordan, November 8, 2007.).
Fourth was the decision by the KRG to give one of its newly founded oil companies the responsibility of developing Khurmala, which is one of the three domes of the giant oil producing Kirkuk fields, which is listed under annex 1 of the draft oil law (which lists those fields that may only be developed by the Iraqi National Oil Company [INOC]). The KRG had asked that Khurmala be moved to annex 3 (which lists fields that may be contracted to the IOCs, permitting PSCs) in order for it to be given to the private companies at a later date. (See Letter of Iraqi oil professionals of September 26, 2007.) This follows a signed agreement by the Oil Ministry in Baghdad with a Turkish company two years ago which was about to start construction activities, but were blocked from doing so by the KRG.
These factors all led the Oil & Gas parliamentary committee and the minister of oil, Dr. Shahristani, to declare on several occasions that the federal Oil Ministry considers all these agreements as illegal and they have threatened to take legal action against these companies, as well as putting them on a blacklist, depriving them from participation in any future contracts with the Oil Ministry.
As this split widens, the approval of the federal oil law in the Iraqi parliament will be an extremely difficult goal to achieve under such circumstances.
2. The weakness of Al-Maliki’s Government and the sectarian divisions within the parties participating in the political process.
The formation of the "front of the moderates" on August 15, 2007, between the two main Kurdish parties (KDP and the PUK), two of the main Shiite parties -- the SCIRI and Al-Dawa party (the Al-Maliki wing is called the "External organization") -- and the Islamic Party/Accord front (the main Sunni party), did not succeed in delivering the new oil law up to this date.
The failure of these parties in approving the oil law and the re-Baathification law was due to the following reasons:
First, the front was no more than a conservative political alliance, formed to pass certain laws with no agreed political agenda or plans among the parties involved.
Second, the disagreements and divisions between the parties were very wide, as each of them was mainly concerned with supporting its own party interests, the interest of the sectarian groups each represents, as well as gaining a larger slice of political power. This was the main reason behind the action of the Accord front in pulling out its ministers from Al-Maliki’s government.
Third, when the parties formed the "front of the moderates" they all agreed to support the oil law in principle. However, when it came down to the details they disagreed on several issues in the oil law.
In addition, several MP’s from Al-Dawa's “Iraq organization” wing and the “Accord front” had never been supporters of the draft oil law.
Fourth, the long standing combined political and sectarian disagreements between the parties involved in the alliance were stronger than all the on-going pressure that have been forced upon them by the US Administration to this date.
These disagreements and the sectarian agendas of the political parties paralyzed the government’s ability to agree on the oil law, so that when the law itself reached parliament their ability to agree on the law was also impaired -- despite the fact that the parties within the "front of the moderates" held the majority in the federal parliament.
Finally, came the deadline for the crises on the Kirkuk Referendum. Under Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, the Iraqi government must complete the normalization process in Kirkuk, hold a census and then a referendum on the status of Kirkuk no later than December 31, 2007. This process has now been delayed by a further six months, which has created more tensions between the parties involved in the political process and has formed another obstacle to agreement on the oil law.
3. Increased Iraqi public awareness and pressure.
This topic was covered in more detail in my August 22 analysis.
However, it is important to emphasize that the activities of Iraqi civil society’s organizations, groups, and individuals against the oil law have been increasing in several parts of Iraq and in particular in Basra and Baghdad.
ZNet |Iraq | The internal struggle for the Iraqi oil law continues
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Continued.......
4. The security and economic crisis.
The partial improvements of the security situation in the past few months was more visible in Baghdad, its surrounding areas and the western provinces. However, this is most likely no more than temporary progress, as these improvements are founded mainly on security measures and few political consensuses. Therefore, only a small percentage of the millions of displaced civilians were able to return to their homes.
On the other hand, there was an increase in the number of military attacks by occupying forces against civilian targets in the south/centre provinces of Al Diwaniya, Al Kute and Karbala, as well as in the activities of the CIA-controlled death squads in the southern provinces of Al Amarah and Basrah.
The recent escalation of tension between the Turkish government and the KRG, and the military attacks of the Turkish army and air force in the Kurdish provinces, with the consent and help of the US administration, have widened the areas where military actions are taking places in Iraq. This is a new area of conflict, which has resulted in reaching parts of Iraq which have had no or very few military attacks and civilian casualties during the previous four years.
As for the economic situation, it remains unchanged. There have been no improvements in the job market, with millions still unemployed and most Iraqi cities and towns still having either no or severe shortages of electricity, clean water and other basic life necessities.
So, Iraqis are still continuing to question the wisdom of trying to concentrate on rushing the Oil & Gas law through parliament while the country continues to be in such a devastated state.
Conclusions:
In addition to the conclusions in my August 22 article which still stand in principle, the following new conclusions have surfaced since then, and are highlighted below:
1. The US Administration and the IOCs have recognized in the past few months that their tactics up until the middle of 2007 of ‘publicly’ imposing all kinds of benchmarks and deadlines on the Iraqi government are having the opposite effect on their chances of having the oil law passed by the Iraqi parliament.
2. It has become clear that it’s in the interest of the US & the IOCs to use more discreet methods of pressure in order to improve their chances of having the oil law materialize.
This change in tactics is due to the increase in opposition and mistrust by the vast majority of the Iraqi people from all classes. This rejection is not only towards the oil law, but also towards all US administration policies that attempt to continue the occupation under different forms.
These tactical changes should not be seen as an indication of any strategic changes in the US attitude toward the oil law. The US administration, the Democrats, and the strong international oil lobbies are all adamant that passing this oil law is a vitally important benchmark, and that this goal should be pursued, whatever the cost to the Iraqi people.
3. Some Iraqi and international oil experts and analysts believe that the US Administration and the big oil giants were behind the pressured rush in passing the Kurdish oil law in August 2007 without waiting for the outcome of the federal oil law. They also believe that the twenty PSC agreements which were signed between the KRG and IOCs were further part of the discreet pressure applied on the federal parliament to pass the federal oil law. This pressure seems to have been yet another mistaken policy, which has misfired and resulted in widening the split between the oil ministry in Baghdad and the KRG, and has ultimately caused even more delay to the federal oil law.
4. Several Iraqi civil society organisations and groups including the group of the “sixty Iraqi oil professionals” (see their Sept. 26, 2007, letter), the IFOU "Iraqi Federation of the Oil Union” and individual Iraqi oil experts have issued statements supporting the stance of the oil minister and the parliamentary committee in rejecting the steps which were taken by the KRG. Such support should be looked upon as no more than tactical support to this particular stance of the Iraqi oil minister, but not towards his strategy on the oil law.
5. It is becoming more and more apparent that the US Administration and the big IOCs are using the KRG’s self interest, as a main tool in their plan to pass the federal oil law.
6. It is interesting to note that none of the big IOCs have signed any PSC agreements with the KRG and that they have left these PSCs to the smaller companies. This clearly indicates that the big IOCs are relying mainly on the federal oil law for their big contracts.
On the other hand we see that the big IOCs are carrying out all types of ‘behind closed doors’ negotiations with the oil ministry in Baghdad to prepare the ground for quick deals as soon as the federal oil law materializes (see Ben Lando, United Press International, "Analysis: Big oil to sign Iraq deals soon," December 6, 2007).
7. Other methods used recently by the big IOCs include negotiations to share among themselves some of the already-signed PSCs with the old Baath regime. It was reported that US giant Chevron and France’s Total have agreed to jointly develop “The Majnoon oil field,” one of the largest oil fields in southern Iraq. (Dow Jones news service report, August 8, 2007.) But this giant field is listed as number 16 in annex 1 of the draft oil law (versions of February and June 2007), which is the list of fields that can only be developed by the INOC. This indicates that the Iraqi Government/Oil Ministry have secretly agreed with some IOCs to deceive the Iraqi Parliament, and to give the IOCs some of the oil fields that the new law prohibits from being developed by anyone other than INOC. The Majnoon oil field was the main field which the Iraqi Baathist government wanted to give to Total under a PSC agreement during their secret negotiations in the 1990s, and over which Total reached a tentative agreement with the Baathist government in 2000. The negotiations did not end with any official open agreement because of the UN sanctions at the time (Oil Companies in Iraq: A Century of Rivalry and War).
8. No action has been taken by the federal government to reinstate INOC. To this date, the Iraqi government has not attempted to introduce a law to reinstate INOC, which was dissolved by the Baath government back in 1987. This is clearly a deliberate attempt by the ministry of oil to give the IOCs the upper hand to push for PSC modules, since without reinstating INOC first, which gives the oil ministry the backup option of developing future oil production on its own, the negotiating position of the ministry will remain very weak,.
9. The Iraqi oil minister and the technocrats in the oil ministry, who, together with their foreign advisers, are behind the rush for the approval of the draft oil law, are becoming very frustrated with the inability of the government and the “front of the moderates” to get the oil law approved by the parliament. This has led them to start secret negotiations, some of which have taken place between Dr. Shahristani and representatives of BP, Shell, and other big IOCs at the beginning of December during the OPEC meetings in Abu Dhabi. (Lando, "Analysis: Big oil to sign Iraq deals soon.")
10. It is significant to note, that the entire vigorous political struggle in opposition to the new oil law has been carried out within the framework of the existing Iraqi political process. This emphasizes that with all the negative features of this process, there are no alternative options to use. Recent Iraqi political history indicates that the oil law would have been passed some time ago, in a similar fashion to the privatization laws of the Baath regime between 1987 and 2002, if the Occupation's Governing Council and its appointed puppet, Allawi's Government were still in power.
11. There is an increase in the positive and effective campaigning taking place around the world against the oil law by international organisations. Some of these organisations have been formed from existing groups, especially to oppose the oil law including the UK “Hands off Iraqi oil”, the US “Stop the Iraqi oil law”, and others. Environmental groups, anti-occupational movements and several international trade unions are providing vital support to the Iraqi anti-oil law movements, and they are carrying out very constructive and helpful media campaigns. (UK Organizations: PLATFORM and War on Want; US Organizations: Global Policy Forum, Institute for Policy Studies, and Oil Change International.)
12. The most important struggle facing the opponents of the federal oil law is still ahead.
We all have to remember that the most significant motive behind the US/UK war and the follow up occupation of Iraq was to ensure their full control over Iraqi oil reserves. So neither the US/UK Administrations nor the big IOCs or their friends are going to easily give up the fight simply because of the internal Iraqi factors which delay the new oil law.
They will intensify their pressure on all Iraqi parties, especially their allies in the "front of the moderates". They will change tactics and use all types of tricks. They will pay whatever it takes and will give all types of promises, in order to pass the oil law in one form or another through the Iraqi parliament. They need this law for their future domination and control.
The year 2008 will be a vital one for all Iraqi and international opponents of the oil law.
If the US Administration and the IOC succeed in their assault to privatize nationalized Iraqi oil, then this will be their first step before they move to impose these types of privatization laws on other Gulf countries and states, where over 75% of the world’s proven oil reserves are located.
Munir Chalabi is an Iraqi political and oil analyst living in the UK
ZNet |Iraq | The internal struggle for the Iraqi oil law continues
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Al-Hashimi and Barham Salih Visits Al-Maliki
Yesterday Dr. Tariq al Hashimi, Iraqi Vice President and Dr. Barham Salih, Deputy of Iraqi PM, paid a visit to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in his residence in Baghdad after his return from London, where he made “routine” medical tests due to suffering from tiredness.
PUKmedia :: English - Al-Hashimi and Barham Salih Visits Al-Maliki
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Barham Salih: Security Improvement paves Way to start Reconstruction Process
Yesterday the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister, Barham Salih, received a delegation from U.S Congress in Baghdad.
During the meeting which was attended by a number of the Iraqi and American officials, the deputy prime minister asserted the necessity of achieving better security progress so as to start the reconstruction and rehabilitation process.
In this regard, several decisions were issued by the Iraqi government to provide a healthy and suitable circumstance to restart development and economic process as he further added.
Later he referred to the vital role of the Iraqi forces and Awakening council’s forces in cooperation with multinational forces in achieving better security situation in different areas of Iraq.
PUKmedia :: English - Barham Salih: Security Improvement paves Way to start Reconstruction Process
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Iraqna, MTC Atheer merge into Zain
Iraq's two successful mobile telephone network operators MTC Atheer and Iraqna have merged into Zain In Iraq to serve nearly 7.5 millions customers all over the country.
"Today marks the launch of Zain In Iraq, which includes two of the most influential telecommunications companies in new Iraq: Iraqna and MTC Atheer," the general and executive director of the newly merged company, Ali al-Dahouy, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
"Zain In Iraq has thus become the second largest company in Zain group, which operates in 22 countries in the Middle East and Africa," al-Dahouy said during a Baghdad-based press conference, explaining that there are 7.5 million subscribers to the company, compared to 11 million in Nigeria.
"The merge has established the most powerful mobile telephone operator in Iraq and the Middle East. It gives a drive to the Iraqi economy," the director noted.
"The group looks forward to establishing a single network covering all Arab countries, a project which is scheduled to finish by this summer," according to al-Dahouy.
Zain Group said in a statement that its area of operation include several countries in the Middle East: Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain and Sudan as Zain; in Iraq as MTC Atheer; in Lebanon as MTC Touch; and in 14 sub-Saharan countries in Africa as Celtel.
AsiaCell, Korek Telecom and MTC Atheer were the three winners in the mobile phone license auction held by the Iraqi government in the Jordanian capital Amman in August 2007.
Mobile phone services were first launched in Iraq in early 2004 following the collapse of the former Iraqi regime and the Cairo-based Orascom Telecom Holdings, Kuwait's Mobile Telecommunications Co and AsiaCell were the winners in an auction that drew 35 bidders. Under the then contracts, Orascom's network covered central Iraq, including Baghdad, AsiaCell served northern Iraq, while Atheer Tel (from Kuwait) operated in the south.
There are eight million mobile subscribers in Iraq which has 26 million inhabitants.
The fixed phone lines network was damaged because of sanctions imposed on the country after the invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Less than 4 percent of the Iraqi people have fixed phone lines.
Aswat Aliraq
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Awakening council leaders say PM's statements on infiltration odd
Leaders of Baghdad's awakening councils expressed their surprise at the Iraqi prime minister's recent statements about Baathist elements and al-Qaeda insurgents infiltrating their councils.
"The government fears the infiltration of awakening councils by members of the dissolved Baath Party, which, at one time, was the only party in Iraq and represented 95% of the population," the international al-Hayat newspaper quoted the leader of the military wing of al-Taaji Awakening Council, Saeed Aziz Salman, as saying.
"Most of our council members, totaling 520 fighters, belong to the Baath Party," Salman indicated, adding, "It has now become clear why the Ministry of Interior had refused to merge awakening council members into it."
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said during an interview published on Saturday by the international al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper that his government supports the tribal councils and their role in restoring order to many Iraqi provinces, voicing his fears about the infiltration of these councils by outside elements.
According to the leader of Fursan al-Rafideen Awakening Council, Saad al-Oreibi, only 20% of the councils' fighters will be merged into the Iraqi ministries of defense and interior, including 100 elements from Fursan al-Rafideen council.
"The government questions the patriotism of council members and provides unconvincing pretexts for its refusal to merge them into the ministries. It has officially stated that the councils are penetrated by Baathist elements and al-Qaeda organization, which is not true because we have demonstrated our keenness to purge our areas of al-Qaeda and other armed groups," al-Oreibi indicated.
"The government's failure to integrate council members into its security and military institutions will prompt us to keep our agreements with the U.S. forces," he added.
Several awakening councils have been set up in a number of Iraqi provinces, including Anbar, Diala, Ninewa and Salah al-Din, with the aim of building a pan-tribal alliance against al-Qaeda. The councils are usually chaired by tribal leaders who have forged an alliance with the Iraqi security apparatus and U.S. forces.
Aswat Aliraq
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Arab League delegation visits Iraq to activate reconciliation
A high-level delegation from the Arab League will arrive in Iraq in the next few days to activate the national reconciliation project, a member of the Iraqi parliament said.
"A delegation under ambassador Ahmed Bin Helli, the Assistant Secretary General of the Arab League, will arrive in Iraq for talks with all parties in order to bolster dialogue and national reconciliation and push forward the political process," Faleh al-Fayyad, the chairman of the Iraqi parliament's higher committee on national dialogue, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI) by telephone.
On whether the dialogue would encompass the Baathists, Fayyad, who is currently in Cairo, the venue of the pan-Arab organization, replied that the dialogue would "encompass all parties."
Fayyad denied convening any conferences on reconciliation at present.
"Reports that a new conference on reconciliation would be held in Cairo were groundless. No place or time were set for a reconciliation conference in the foreseeable future," Fayyad said.
He said, "We called on the Arab League, during our meeting with Secretary General Amr Moussa, to have a balanced role with all parties," adding "the League has an important role to play in improving conditions in Iraq thanks to its good ties with all Iraqi parties."
On the League's role in cementing Iraqi-Arab relations, Fayyad said "the secretary general has promised to interfere with Arab countries to help Iraq and re-establish diplomatic representation in Baghdad."
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had offered his proposal on national reconciliation before the Iraqi parliament in June 2006. The proposal was welcomed and supported by all parliamentary blocs despite some reservations on a number of items.
Maliki said his proposal did not "include murderers and those who were involved in acts of sabotage."
Aswat Aliraq
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Accountability & Justice Law to be voted on Monday – MP
The Iraqi parliament's debaathification committee finalized amendments to the accountability & justice law, which replaces the law on debaathification, to be cast to vote on Monday, a legislator who chairs the committee said on Sunday.
"Objections were expressed by the deputies during the 2nd reading of the accountability & justice draft. The debaathification committee studies these objections and amended the draft in a meeting that comprised all members of the committee," Falah Shanshal told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
On the position of the Sadrist bloc, or Iraqis loyal to Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, as regards these amendments, Shanshal replied that the Sadrist bloc views that the name "debaathification" should preferably remains as it is based on article 135 of the constitution.
The debaathification law lays several restrictions on members of the outlawed Baath Party and prevents about 30,000 of them to return to their state positions or get their retirement rights.
The draft, since it was first announced by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in June 2006, has been met with numerous objections and reservations, mostly from the Sadrist bloc.
If passed, the accountability & justice law would offer thousands of members of the former Baath (Awakening) Party, which is now banned in Iraq, to return to their jobs and receive retirement dues.
Aswat Aliraq
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Parliament to vote on 2008 budget law on Monday- MP
The Iraqi parliament will vote on the 2008 budget law during its session on Monday, an independent member of parliament said on Sunday.
"The parliament is determined to discuss and approve several crucial laws in the coming few days, including the accountability and justice law and the 2008 budget law, especially after Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh and Minister of Finance al-Zubeidi had provided a thorough budget review," MP Safiya al-Suheil told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
"Other laws will be voted on during Monday's session," al-Suheil indicated, linking the absence of the quorum in previous parliamentary sessions to official holidays and dismissing political disputes as the reason behind the lack of the quorum.
Aswat Aliraq
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Police chief purges force in Basra
Basra’s police boss has transferred 1,000 of his police officers to stations outside the city in a move to purge the force of elements believed to be loyal to their political and sectarian factions.
It is the third time Basra’s police commander, Abedjalil Khalaf, embarks on such large-scale transfer. Previously, he had ordered 2,000 more police officers to leave the city.
The transfer is the largest of its type since the formation of the new police, security and army and comes amid reports that the city’s police forces have drastically failed to reinstate law and order.
The security of Basra is now solely Iraq’s responsibility after the withdrawal of British occupation troops to barracks in the city outskirts.
“We had obtained official permission to go ahead with the transfer as part of efforts to cleanse the police system in Basra of elements with political loyalties,” Khalaf said.
He did not say how he would make up for the loss of 3,000 policemen and what recruiting criteria he would adopt to have them replaced.
Basra is currently Iraq’s largest oil producing and exporting center.
Shiite political factions have been scrambling for influence and power and their disparate militias are said to be better armed and equipped than government forces.
Azzaman in English
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Al Maliki back home with 'big goals'
Baghdad: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki arrived home on Saturday a week after flying to Britain for medical tests, saying in a newspaper interview he was determined to bring about reconciliation in the deeply divided country.
Al Maliki underwent two days of check-ups in a London hospital after suffering exhaustion caused by his heavy workload, a spokesman said earlier.
A small but vocal number of supporters welcomed Al Maliki, waving Iraqi flags and displaying posters of him as the premier's convoy left the airport.
"I have returned to our homeland to continue construction at this hard stage in the history of Iraq," he told reporters on his arrival. "My health is good and we have big goals this year."
In the interview, given before he returned to Baghdad but published yesterday, Al Maliki dismissed accusations that his government did not want to end divisions that have practically paralysed parliament.
"The reality shows that this is lying propaganda. I am the first who launched this initiative but unfortunately some politicians do not want reconciliation," he told Al Sharq Al Awsat Arabic international daily.
He said the government will continue to support US-backed Sunni Arab groups that have joined the fight against Al Qaida and will integrate a 'large number' of them in the security forces.
The comments constituted the strongest public support to date by the Shiite Al Maliki of the Sunni groups that switched sides last year and now number more than 70,000.
'Iraq will not be a base'
They came two days after another top Shiite leader, Abdul Aziz Al Hakim, voiced support for the role played by the groups in the fight against Al Qaida.
He also vowed that Iraq would not used as a springboard for attacks on its neighbours. "Iraq will not be a base to harm them, and will not be a headquarters or passage for any force which wants to damage the interests of Arab countries or our neighbours such as Turkey or Iran."
Al Maliki attacked Iraq's Sunni Vice-President Tarik Al Hashemi, with whom he has repeatedly clashed over how to restore stability. "The disagreement [with Al Hashimi] is substantial," he said. "I disagree with those who say that the political process must return to square one. I disagree with the call for freezing the constitution.
"The state collapsed completely and we are about to construct it. This needs effort and real partnership." US officials have expressed frustration at the lack of progress in reconciling Iraq's warring communities.
Washington regards two Bills stalled before parliament - an oil law and legislation that would rehabilitate hundreds of members of Saddam Hussain's Baath party - as "benchmarks" towards reconciliation.
Gulfnews: Al Maliki back home with 'big goals'
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Iraq abides by the Algiers agreement: Talebani
TEHRAN, Jan. 05 (ISNA)-The Iraqi government adheres to the Algiers agreement signed in 1975 and regards it as an international agreement, Iraq' president announced.
Visiting Iran's ambassador in Iraq Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Jalal Talebani said Iraq abides by the Algiers agreement and the document remains valid and his previous remarks in this regard have not been cited exactly.
A few days ago some media quoted Jalal Talebani as saying the Algiers agreement was signed between Saddam Hussein and Iran's last Shah but not between Iran and Iraq so it is considered as being cancelled.
Talebani later denied their citations and said they have misquoted him.
Talebani went on to say that since the Algiers agreement was signed between Saddam Hussein and Iran's last Shah, the two criminals, "we objected to the agreement but now that Islamic Republic of Iran has been established and Iraq' dictatorial regime was collapsed the situation changed so the Algiers agreement is valid."
Kazemi Qomi for his part said media's misquotation of Talebani's remarks in this regard cast doubt for the public opinion.
He also continued to say that Iran-Iraq ties seems tight and the two sides are willing to cooperate in all domains and stress all the cooperation agreements be implemented.
ISNA - 01-05-2008 - 86/10/15 - Service: / Foreign Policy / News ID: 1064074
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Smith&Nephew to submit papers for Iraq bribes probe
Medical equipment maker Smith & Nephew has been asked to submit confidential documents to Britain's Serious Fraud Office as part of a wide-ranging probe following allegations bribes were paid to win contracts in Iraq.
"Smith & Nephew has been asked to submit documents to the SFO and will cooperate fully with the inquiry," a spokesman for the firm said on Sunday, confirming a newspaper report.
The SFO is investigating possible breaches of the oil-for-food sanctions programme, which was designed to allow the regime of Saddam Hussein to sell limited amounts of oil to buy food and medicine.
GlaxoSmithKline Plc and AstraZeneca Plc said last Sunday the SFO had asked them to hand over documents.
The drugmakers deny any wrongdoing and say they are cooperating fully.
Notices were served last month by the SFO, following a 2005 United Nations report which listed more than 2,200 companies around the world that might have been linked to bribes paid to the Iraqi government.
Smith&Nephew to submit papers for Iraq bribes probe | News | Breaking City News | Reuters&
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Iraq surge brings a lull in violence but no reconciliation
Already, the “surge” of US troops into Baghdad is beginning to recede, leaving behind a country where, by most accounts, levels of political violence are much reduced.
But the surge has not accomplished the goal that the administration of US President George W. Bush set when it announced the policy at the beginning of last year – to buy time for Iraqi politicians to reach compromises on the country’s future that would reconcile its feuding ethnic and sectarian factions.
US officers say that such a grand compromise may not be so important. They have achieved “bottom-up” reconciliation by cementing local alliances and arranging for the amnesty of prisoners, the pensioning off of former regime officials and other measures to win Sunni acceptance for the Shia-led government.
Over the next year, as neighbourhoods, towns and districts lose the US garrisons that helped suppress sectarian militias and insurgent groups and maintain the balance of power, the ability of these improvised measures to withstand the centrifugal forces of Iraqi sectarian politics will be put to the test.
US forces numbered approximately 160,000 at the end of December, down from a high of over 170,000 in October. Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said last month that the military should be able to withdraw five brigades, or around 20,000 soldiers, by mid-2008, and hoped to take out another five by the end of this year.
British troops will also be winding down their deployment in Iraq, with numbers expected to fall from 5,000 to 2,500 in the middle of next year.
In terms of reducing violence, the strategy orchestrated by General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, appears to have succeeded beyond its planners’ expectations. Both US military casualties and Iraqi civilian casualties have fallen dramatically since the summer.
But many Iraqi politicians and Iraq analysts fear that unless the government can reach agreement with its political opponents, the lull in violence may not last. “If this improvement in security is not matched by improvements in political life, economy, unemployment and the services for the standard of living, [or] if there is no reconciliation, nobody can guarantee that this security would not deteriorate again,” says Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish politician.
“What Petraeus has accomplished is a lull that is sustainable through the American elections [in November 2008],” says Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. “It’s not indefinitely sustainable without political accommodation at the top . . . This is conventional wisdom and it makes sense.”
Gen Petraeus himself said last month that, although the violence that had brought Iraq to the “brink of civil war” had receded, the progress had been “tenuous in many areas and could be reversed”.
According to American officers, the surge worked by allowing the US and Iraqi governments to blanket strategic districts, in some cases placing troops in positions where they could overlook virtually every main road junction.
This allowed US forces to intercept guerrillas moving in and out – and, more importantly, to break the hold that insurgents had gained on neighbourhoods via intimidation. Fatalities suffered by the US-led coalition fell to 40 a month in October and November, and 23 in December, from well over 100 a month in each of April, May and June. Figures for civilian dead also suggest a drop of more than 50 per cent since the summer.
In addition, both Sunni and Shia armed groups appear to have suffered a significant loss of legitimacy among their support bases. Members of both sects say that the gunmen alienated the civilian population by imposing a puritan version of Islamic law or by killing locals suspected of being informants.
Iraq’s al-Qaeda network, in particular, sparked a massive backlash. Over 70,000 paramilitaries, or “concerned local citizens”, enlisted in neighbourhood patrols targeted mainly at the radical Sunni movement.
Shia militants also appear to have lost legitimacy. Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical cleric, continues to enforce a ban on all armed activity in areas controlled by his movement, and his deputies say that that they have formed a special “Golden Unit” to purge members suspected of criminal violence or sectarian killing.
However, the retreat of the armed movements does not appear to have been accompanied by a corresponding increase in the authority and legitimacy of the Iraqi state. Gen Petraeus has said that as al-Qaeda activity lessens in Sunni areas, “mafia-like” criminal organisations practising kidnapping and extortion expand to fill the gap. Meanwhile, the British military’s recent withdrawal from Basra city stems from the realisation that it could do little to stop feuding among Islamist militia groups.
Some analysts have suggested Basra is a glimpse into Iraq’s medium-term future. The violence there, which probably results in several dozen dead a month, is hardly a serious threat to the Iraqi state. But the climate of lawlessness ensures that investors steer clear of an oil-rich port city that could be Iraq’s economic and commercial capital – and that the middle class, which fled en masse to neighbouring countries, does not return.
Meanwhile, Iraqi politicians have failed to deliver the hoped-for “national reconciliation” package of legislation. Parliament adjourned at the end of the year without having approved important legislation on the distribution of oil revenues and the fate of members of the former ruling Ba’ath party. Given the heated rhetoric that continues to fly between Kurds and Arabs, Sunni and Shia, it appears that the much-vaunted “consensus” may not in fact exist.
It could be the US troop presence, rather than low-profile trust-building measures, that is the crucial factor in keeping the feuding factions apart. “The Americans can [prevent local conflicts] now because they have leverage through the military,” says Mr Hiltermann.
The US surge does appear to have interrupted the cycle of violence that a year ago seemed to be pushing Iraq inexorably into all-out sectarian war. But it has not bought Iraqis enough time to resolve their differences and it is unclear whether local ceasefires can last without US troops to help resolve disagreements and prevent groups from settling their disputes by force.
FT.com / Comment & analysis / Analysis - Iraq surge brings a lull in violence but no reconciliation
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Al Qaida is on the run in Iraq
Osama Bin Laden has warned Iraq's Sunni Arabs against fighting Al Qaida. These new threats were released in a new audiotape recently, where Bin Laden promises "blood for blood, destruction for destruction."
Most of the one-hour tape dealt with Iraq, as truly, Iraq is united against the Al Qaida terrorists. In Iraq, we have a saying which goes: "This is the last rise of the dying", or Sahwat al Mawt, for Al Qaida's Iraq branch is on the run.
Benazir Bhutto's assassination was not mentioned at all, which suggests the tape was made before her assassination.
Bin Laden is also heard saying: "We intend to liberate Palestine, the whole of Palestine from the [Jordan] river to the sea," threatening "blood for blood, destruction for destruction", reminding us of the way Saddam wanted to liberate Palestine through Iran during the 1980-1988 war with that country.
Saddam's slogan was "Jerusalem's liberation comes through the Eastern borders of the Arab nation", which was extremely long and winding, so he had to top it all by invading Kuwait for no reason which could not have been resolved in a diplomatic manner.
"We will not recognise even one inch for Jews in the land of Palestine as other Muslim leaders have," Bin Laden said.
This sentence sent me back 1,400 plus years, to the time of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH). During his time, there were Jews all over the region, not as an occupation force of course, but as people who lived side by side with all the rest of us.
We even took the "Jews" with us when we left Andalusia. Not all Jews are Zionists, and wars are not the solution today. Negotiation tables are. Blood will only shed more blood and I do believe the region has had enough.
Reducing violence
In Iraq, a number of Sunni Arab tribes in the western Anbar province formed a coalition to fight Al Qaida-linked terrorists that are credited for deeply reducing violence in the province.
The Awakening Councils started forming after Al Qaida started blowing up locations with the sons of Sunni Arab tribes. One friend told me of a story where one tribal chief asked the terrorists to leave innocent people alone, and was subsequently threatened by the terrorists.
Bin Laden said in his new tape that Sunni Arabs who have joined the Awakening Councils "have betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people". He added: "They will suffer in life and in the afterlife."
This is very interesting, as I have not seen a fact being distorted in this manner for a long time now. It is Al Qaida terrorists who have betrayed our principles and beliefs.
When the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) sent his armies in Islamic "futuhat-conquests" he would not stop telling the army's commanders: "Never harm a woman, child or man. Do not destroy trees, do not harm the land, and do not fight those who do not fight you".
So where does Al Qaida in Mesopotamia stand here?
Friends from Ramadi tell me that they felt ashamed when Al Qaida killed innocent kids and women through suicide bombers.
"This is not Islam, we are the religion of acceptance and tolerance, and the sooner we settle down, the faster the US will leave Iraq."
And I believe this is the whole point. Most probably Al Qaida in Mesopotamia does not want the US troops to leave Iraq, as Iraq has become their open game land. Hitting the US within the US is difficult, so what better way than to use Iraq as their scoring field?
Hours before the tape was issued, the US Multinational Forces Commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, stressed that Al Qaida was becoming increasingly fearful of losing the support of Sunni Arabs and had begun targeting the leaders of the Awakening Councils.
Al Qaida is on the run in Iraq | Iraq Updates
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Small loans bring projects to life- economists
Iraqi economic experts praised the small loan scheme launched by some governmental and non-governmental organizations, and slammed the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing liquidity.
"Small loans have helped revive many projects which were on their way to extinction," an economic analyst, Husam al-Samouk, told the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI), arguing that 90% of the country's 130 small projects are facing immense difficulties to survive.
"The remaining 10% operate at 20-50% of their capacity as a result of many obstacles, notably the shortage of raw material and power problems," al-Samouk indicated.
"The provision of simplified loans for owners of these projects will help drive forward the Iraqi economy and implement a real economic development," the analyst added.
Several banks as well as governmental and non-governmental organizations have offered loans to citizens, a policy that aims to set up new projects and develop existing ones.
Criticizing the Iraqi Central Bank's policy of reducing its liquidity and raising the interest rate in an attempt to encourage people to increase their savings, al-Samouk said that the bank's policy has proved ineffective in reducing the price of basic goods.
"The only beneficiaries of this policy are speculators," al-Samouk explained.
Kamal al-Basiri, an Iraqi researcher, described the small loan scheme as a major attractor of investment in the country.
Al-Basiri criticized the Central Bank's policy of countering inflation by reducing its liquidity and raising the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, overlooking the country's need for a real economic growth.
The head of the non-governmental Arbil-based al-Thiqa (Trust) Organization, Ardmis Oganis, said that her organization has provided job opportunities for hundreds of individuals and monthly income for dozens of Iraqi families.
"Over 1,000 borrowers from Arbil province have benefited from our loans since the establishment of our organization in 2004," Oganis added.
The organization grants interest-free loans of $500-$25,000 to be repaid in 16 months, she explained.
Arbil, the capital of Iraq's Kurdistan region, lies 349 km northeast of the Iraqi capital Baghdad.
Small loans bring projects to life- economists | Iraq Updates
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Iraq's unknown economy
What is happening on the economic side through Iraq?
While Iraq's security situation improves dramatically, and its political scene muddles along with only very limited and mostly local steps toward gradual Sunni-Shia-Kurd rapprochement, what is happening on the economic side?
As students and practitioners of counterinsurgency and nation building well know, the economy is the third pillar of any successful mission, along with the security and political environments, and can never be neglected.
After meeting again recently with some of our top economic aid and reconstruction experts on Iraq, I have concluded they continue to do remarkable things at considerable personal risk and hardship in Iraq. Hospitals and electricity plants are being built, transportation infrastructure improved, water and waste treatment plants constructed. But the other striking, and lamentable, fact about our economic efforts in Iraq is that for the most part we don't have the foggiest idea how well they are working. That has to change.
To be fair, some things are known. Inflation is within reasonable bounds. Oil revenues are up quite a bit due to the price of petroleum, even if production has increased only very gradually. Due largely to the improved security environment, electricity production and distribution finally took a substantial step forward in 2007, for the first time since the 2003 invasion. Without even counting the informal electricity sector, which has itself grown, official numbers have increased 10 percent to 20 percent. Cell phone ownership and usage have gone through the roof; national port capacity has increased substantially; the Internet is making real inroads.
Less happily, household fuel supplies are nudging upward slightly, but only after a couple years of stagnation or even decline relative to demand. Foreign investment remains very modest due to ongoing uncertainty about Iraq's future - and concern about the violence of the present. Unemployment remains quite severe.
Beyond those conclusions, though, we don't know much. While the U.S. government can point to many individual projects that are progressing or reaching the ribbon-cutting phase, we do not have a sense of overall national trends. How many Iraqis get water? How many have their trash picked up, or sewage removed dependably from their neighborhoods? How many get the water they need to irrigate their crops? How many get basic health care when they need it? How many of their kids are in school? And how do all these numbers compare to last year, or the latter year's of Saddam's rule - important benchmarks in shaping Iraqis' perceptions of their government's performance (not to mention that of the United States)?
The answers are blowing in the wind. American aid agencies either do not have viable strategies to collect meaningful data or believe they must defer to sovereign Iraqi authorities on such matters.
With American aid dollars drying up even as Iraqi government funds skyrocket due to the high price of crude oil, it is increasingly clear that while security remains in large part an American task, economic reconstruction and development must be led by Iraqis. So we bow out of the debate at times.
There is some logic to this thinking, but in the end it is flawed. We must know how well the economy in Iraq is doing. How else can we know whether to advise Iraqis to undertake a massive jobs creation program to alleviate the unemployment rate? Or to revamp strategies for national infrastructure, focusing on smaller and more local systems rather than larger ones vulnerable either to sabotage or to politicians' bickering and interference?
How else can we pressure countries like Saudi Arabia to do more to help Iraq, if we cannot clearly explain how much help Iraq still needs? How can we convince war-weary American voters to stay with the Iraq effort (even as it is gradually downsized in coming years) if they have no comprehensive sense of how it is really going?
It is entirely possible to collect better data. Each year the World Bank produces admittedly imperfect but still useful basic developmental information on the overwhelming majority of the world's countries, including some others experiencing conflict.
Few of these countries have the huge foreign presence found in Iraq, yet data are still collected and vetted. Information on child survival, primary education, literacy and life expectancy is readily available for most African states, for example. Why can't we do as well in Iraq?
We need to do better. One place to start is to ask the United Nations, which produces most of the above-mentioned data for other countries, to expand its similar operations throughout Iraq. UNICEF has recently issued a report on the state of Iraq's children, but its data on education is old. In fact, the report provides a nationwide estimate on the availability of basic utilities only for the single specific matter of sewers (UNICEF estimates that, outside Baghdad, 20 percent of Iraq's children have use of proper sewerage facilities).
Another complementary approach would using polling and surveys to gauge Iraqi attitudes about quality-of-life indicators. To be sure, such surveys produce imprecise information at best, and only become truly meaningful over months or years as we can discern trends in perceptions. But better late than never.
Also, even if survey data are bound to be inexact, perceptions are hugely important in building a nation, healing sectarian wounds and restoring to the extent possible the image of America. We need to know if Iraqis believe their lives are getting better.
Last year was the year of security in Iraq, a remarkable period of unmistakable and hugely encouraging progress in reducing violence. Of course, 2008 needs to a year for Iraqi political progress to reinforce that security trajectory. But just as much, it needs to be the year of the economy. With the security environment so much better, that is now possible.
We will only know how well we are doing and what further changes may be necessary, if we recognize the importance of economic trends - and become curious enough to study them with the same care and attention we devote to understanding Iraq's violence.
Iraq's unknown economy | Iraq Updates
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Kurdistani Alliance: Disagreement Between al-Shahristani and KRG is Constitutional
Kurdistani Alliance Bloc spokesman Firyad Rawandozi said that the expected negotiations between the Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani and KRG officials about the oil contracts is the best way to solve the problems.
In a statement to Radio Sawa, Rawandozi said that the disagreement between Baghdad and Kurdistan Region Governments is constitutional.
He also said that this disagreement can be solved by the Constitutional Court or through dialogue.
PUKmedia :: English - Kurdistani Alliance: Disagreement Between al-Shahristani and KRG is Constitutional
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Bush: Pulling out US Forces from Iraq will be based on our Leader’s Recommendations
In an exclusive interview with al-Arabia Satellite Channel, George W. Bush, US President talked about the Iraqi affair and said “The resolution of pulling out our Troops from Iraq will be taken according to the recommendations of US Army Leadership there, I think Economic and Political situations were improved, I always tell the American People that the Iraqi mother want the same thing that American ones want, it’s a child’s opportunity to live in peace.”
George W. Bush considered that New Year celebrations in Baghdad are signs that normal life returned to Iraq. Concerning Syria as a neighbor to Iraq Bush said” I will appreciate it if it was practically preventing suicides entrance to Iraq; this is the only way to have good relations with US.”
PUKmedia :: English - Bush: Pulling out US Forces from Iraq will be based on our Leader’s Recommendations
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Japanese Company to Rehabilitate Iraq's Al-Taji Gaseous Station
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Electricity announced that the ministry has inked an agreement with a Japanese company to complete the rehabilitation of the Al-Taji gaseous power station, Iraq Directory reported.
He also added that the development is being funded the Japanese grant allocated for the ministry.
An Iraqi company will start implementing the project under the Japanese supervision, while a Jordanian company will be responsible for the survey and assessment of the project.
It is noteworthy that the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity has prepared a plan for 2008 that includes building a large number of generating units in Baghdad and other governorates to reach a production capacity of more than nine thousand five hundred megawatts at the end of this year.
PUKmedia :: English - Japanese Company to Rehabilitate Iraq's Al-Taji Gaseous Station
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Karbala…Arresting a Forgery Gang
PUKmedia 2008-01-07 13:31:13
http://pukmedia.com/english/images/s...1denar-eye.jpg Rahman Mashawi, press Spokesman in Karbala Police Directorate said that the patrols of Combating Money Laundry Department in Crime Investigation Directorate arrested a band accused of possessing an amount of faked money; they were taken to be investigated with to know the source of the seized money.
“They are members in a gang which swindles local citizens by promising to appoint them in the Iraqi Army in return of 400 US$.” as Rahman Mashawi added.
PUKmedia :: English - Karbala…Arresting a Forgery Gang
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Exchanging Coins with Paper Notes Currency in Kurdistan Region Banks
PUKmedia 2008-01-07 13:35:01
http://pukmedia.com/english/images/s...omic/coins.jpg A source from the Regional Ministry of Financial Affairs, in condition of anonymity, said “the ministry decided to exchange the 25, 50 and 100 Iraqi dinar coins. Banks are going to receive these coins from the citizens and to be exchanged with a paper currency.”
“The decision starts to be implemented from 3-1-2008 to 1-2-2008”, the source added.
PUKmedia :: English - Exchanging Coins with Paper Notes Currency in Kurdistan Region Banks
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Demand for the dollar down in daily auction
Demand for the dollar went down in the Iraqi Central Bank’s auction on Monday, the first session this week after the Army Day holiday, registering at $142.970 million compared to $181.280 million on Thursday.
"The demand hit $16.40 million in cash and $126.930 million in money transfers outside the country, all covered by the bank at a stable exchange rate of 1,215 Iraqi dinars per dollar, unchanged for the third session in a row," according to the central bank's daily bulletin which was received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).
The banks participating in the auction offered to sell $4.200 million, which the bank bought at an exchange rate of 1,213 Iraqi dinars per dollar.
Demand for the dollar was at a record high in the Iraqi Central Bank's auction on Thursday, reaching $181.280 million, the highest in its history.
The Iraqi Central Bank runs a daily auction from Sunday to Thursday.
Aswat Aliraq
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New Iraqi political movement to be announced
Iraqi List member Ousama Al Nujaifi confirmed that a new political movement will be announced this week including most of political parties denouncing ethnic and sectarian apportionment. Al Nujaifi declared that the pact document due to be announced by the movement will include solutions to several issues mainly Article Constitution 140 and a timetable for multinational forces withdrawal from Iraq in addition to the abstention of signing security agreements with the US. He added that intense meetings were held the last few days between Iraqi lawmakers, Sadrists, Al Fadhila Party, Al Daawa Party and resigned MPs from the Coalition. However, Al Sadr Bloc MP Nassar Al Rubaie showed reservation about forming a new political front saying that the joint pact will be issued by participating parties.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Iraq News | New Iraqi political movement to be announced
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Al Sistani calls to stop internal killings
Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani said that internal killings among Iraqis are a loss for all parties, calling citizens to help their nation stop terrorists by reporting on them. In his Ashura speech, Al Sistani called not to seize governmental money while Shitte authority Mohammed Isaac Al Fayad called to fight rebels and not tolerate convicted people on account of violent acts.
On the other hand, a leader of awakening councils in Al Aazamiya, Major Riyad, was killed in addition to a number of civilians, due to an explosion targeting the headquarters of the Sunni endowment in the city.
Moreover, a series of attacks targeted churches and convents in Mosul, wounding four people and damaging a number of monasteries, Major Abdul Karim Khalaf Al Jibouri reported. In addition, two US soldiers were killed due to an explosion in Mosul, the US Military said.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Iraq News | Al Sistani calls to stop internal killings
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Investment opportunities conference between Iran and Iraq starts off
The investment opportunities conference in the fields of oil and gas between Iraq and Iran have started in Tehran to discuss joint cooperation between both countries and enhance relations in oil investment, extraction and refining fields in addition to oil and gas pipelines and petrochemical industries. Iranian economic and Finances Minister Daoud Jaafari noted in the opening speech that both countries can work together in order to supply the world market with oil needs in the future.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Economics News | Investment opportunities conference between Iran and Iraq starts off
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Trade Ministry working to provide ratio cards
Trade Minister Abdul Fallah Al Sudani announced the start of a major contracting plan to provide ratio cards for the year 2008. Al Sudani told reporters that his Ministry has concluded several contracts with different international facilities in order to import wheat, rice, milk, oils and sugar and implement a plan to provide strategic stocks of these materials for the current year. Al Sudani noted that a joint plan with the Planning Ministry has been put forth to determine the parties benefiting from ratio cards and the case of each family in preparation for the second quarter of the current year affirming that the ratio card is constant and has not been changed.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Economics News | Trade Ministry working to provide ratio cards
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OPEC President expects further oil prices increase
OPEC President Shakib Khalil said he expects oil prices to continue increasing until the end of the first quarter in 2008 while they would be stable at the second quarter. Khalil explained that ongoing surge is due to the latest political tensions in Pakistan and the increasing violence in Nigeria in addition to the decrease of oil stocks in the United States.
On the other hand, a Kuwaiti Newspaper reported Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah Al Attiye as saying that OPEC is not responsible for oil prices increase because markets are witnessing supplies abundance, thus competitors are the ones responsible for the surge.
Alsumaria Iraqi Satellite TV Network | Economics News | OPEC President expects further oil prices increase
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Sorry if already posted
"Orascom Telecom" sold its whole share in "Iraqna" to the Kuwaiti Zain
The Egyptian company Orascom Telecom completed the sale proceedings of its whole share in Iraqna Company for mobile communications in Iraq to the company "MTC Atheer" affiliated to the Kuwaiti company Zain. Orascom said in a statement that it had completed the closure of all obligations related to the deal which is valued at approximately $1.2 billion. Orascom Telecom shares closed at the end of dealings at the Egyptian Stock Exchange with a decline of about %0.6, recording 92.1 pounds.
Zain group for mobile in the Middle East and Africa announced last December its possession on the company "Iraqna", which its subscribers amounted to about 7 million, by %100.
"MTC Atheer" has won last August one of the licenses to operate mobile phones posed by the Iraqi government and worth 1.25 billion dollars for a single license; while Orascom Telecom, which established "Iraqna" after the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, failed in the bidding on the three licenses, which made it sell its company's assets in the country.
The Kuwaiti government owns %24.6 of the shares of Zain Company which has a capital of $25 billion.
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=5280