Method in Shabibi's Madness
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Socata 850
Number of banks 16 -----
Auction price selling dinar / US $ 1267 -----
Auction price buying dinar / US $ 1265 -----
Amount sold at auction price (US $) 100.640.000 -----
Amount purchased at Auction price (US $) 1.000.000
Total offers for buying (US $) 100.640.000 -----
Total offers for selling (US $) 1.000.000 -----
Gooooooooooooooood Morning Rolclub
"The More They Take, The More We Make"
"Stay the Course, its the difference between Winners and whiners"
9.48 Trillion taken out and still the Party has not started
1. "1" Dinar rate change today, it was 1268, it is now 1267
2. A (net) worth of dinars, IQD - 126,243,880,000 pulled out of circulation today 5/3/07.
3. 16 banks participating today
4. 135th auction since the beginning of CBI's reval plan
5. 215 days into the CBI's reval plan. (SIX MONTHS+)
6. 9,485,279,501,000 dinars pulled from circulation !!
6A. Conservative ESTIMATE of Dinars still in circulation or controlled by the CBI 7,514,720,499,000
7. "1,265,000,000" Dinars back into circulation today
8. 210 dinar change since Oct 1st (baseline was 1477) 14.218% increase in value of the dinar since beginning of reval plan (Approximatly Oct 1st).
9. 3 point reduction in the rate so far this week. Was at 1270 at the end of last week, 1267 so far this week.
10. 2 point drop in the month of May. Ended at 1269 in April, now stands at 1267
In January we saw a 2.49% drop in the rate.
In February we saw a .928% drop in the rate.
In March we saw a .546% drop in the rate.
In April we saw a .3142% drop in the rate
Thank you once again, Socata, for your regular updates. They are most welcome and most helpful.
Assume for discussion purposes that:
(1) Socata's numbers are basically correct;
(2) Five (5) trillion dinars that the United States reportedly owns
are contained in Socata's item number 6A;
(3) Twenty-one (21) trillion dinars were printed; and
(4) The rest of the world, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, and
people like us hold a total of 1,214,720,499,000 dinars.
These assumptions would result in there being approximately 1.3 trillion dinars currently in circulation.
Somehow Shabibi has been able recently to pull out of circulation approximately 350 billion dinars per week. Assume he is able to do this during each of the next three (3) weeks. This to my way of thinking is not farfetched; he was able, for example, to pull out 126 billion dinars
today!
The net result of all this is that by the week of May 28th the amount of
dinars actually in circulation could be reduced to approximately 250 billion.
If you were Shabibi, wouldn't you do this and hold off on the r/v for those
three weeks, especially since (1) the HCL has not yet been passed by parliament and (2) the intervening auctions could save Iraq approximately one (1) trillion dollars in debt on its currency, assuming an ultimate r/v of 1:1? It seems to me that this suction effort dwarfs the debt-forgiveness effort. Iraq's indebtedness is reportedly down from approximately $185 billion
to approximatety $45 billion - a reduction of $140 billion achieved after
years of begging for forgiveness. Hasn't Shabibi exceeded this debt-forgiveness figure in the last two (2) days alone with his rampaging auctions?
Since I am not a banker, and Wm. Knowles is, I'd be very interested in
whether he agrees with the above analysis.