Welcome, Jeffrey Frankel. A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar.

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30-03-2007, 07:29 PM
Inscrutable

Welcome, Jeffrey Frankel. A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar.

I have sent Mr Frankel a request to visit the forum.

Dear Mr. Frankel,

I am doing research on Iraq and the countries currency (the Iraqi dinar).

The reason for my email is your OP-ED "A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar" published in the Financial Times June 13, 2003

I will try to make this email as brief as possible and would greatly appreciate and thank you in advance as I anticipate your reply.

My questions to you are,

Do you still hold the same opinion for a peg on the Iraqi Dinar as you did in 2003, that being one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a euro, plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil?

Do you feel with the amount of Dinar stated to be in circulation (15-20 Trillion) that a peg such as the one you suggest is possible?

Would you consider the Iraqi Dinar (currency) a good investment?

I am a member of an Iraqi Dinar investors forum and would like to invite you to visit http://www.rolclub.com/iraqi-dinar-dinartrade-com/ where the Dinar as well as your editorial is discussed, I would also like to invite you to a future conference call where your opinion on Iraq's peg will be the topic. This conference call will afford you the opportunity to pitch any material you have authored to the participants on the call and with your participation we would expect a very large audience. If you are willing to participate in the call we can coordinate a future date and time that will fit your schedule.

Sincerely,
30-03-2007, 08:12 PM
Inscrutable

Amazing!!

A reply from Mr. Frankel in record time. If you happen to visit here Mr Frankel, thank you. I will edit my above post to remove your email address to avoid what you stated in closing.

Mr. XXX,

Here are my answers to your questions:

**********

Q: Do you still hold the same opinion for a peg on the Iraqi Dinar as
you
did in 2003, that being one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a
euro,
plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil?
A: I still stand by my proposal. But, it was never meant to be a
statement about the proper level at which the Dinar would be converted
to
the 3-component basket standard. I just meant that it should be tied
to a
basket that consisted of dollars, euros and oil in those relative
proportions. Bt the dinar should go into the basket at whatever the
current levels are. In any case, the odds that this proposal will be
adopted by the authorities are even lower now than when I made it.
Q: Do you feel with the amount of Dinar stated to be in circulation
(15-20
Trillion) that a peg such as the one you suggest is possible?
A: Given my answer to the first question, the advisability of the
proposal
is not affected by the amount of money that has been created in the
meantime (assuming that this money supply is by now fully reflected in
current exchange rates and prices of goods).
Q: Would you consider the Iraqi Dinar (currency) a good investment?
A: No. This is not a suitable investment for most individual
non-Iraqi
citizens, in large part because it is not a convertible currency traded
in
liquid international markets. (Also because the prospects for the
Iraqi
government do not look great to me, but many of your readers can judge
that
for themselves.)**********
Feel free to post my answers on your website. I don't want to
participate
directly myself, because I already get a lot more email on this subject
than I want.
30-03-2007, 08:23 PM
notazbad2000

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

Amazing!!

A reply from Mr. Frankel in record time. If you happen to visit here Mr Frankel, thank you. I will edit my above post to remove your email address to avoid what you stated in closing.

Mr. XXX,

Here are my answers to your questions:

**********

Q: Do you still hold the same opinion for a peg on the Iraqi Dinar as
you
did in 2003, that being one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a
euro,
plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil?
A: I still stand by my proposal. But, it was never meant to be a
statement about the proper level at which the Dinar would be converted
to
the 3-component basket standard. I just meant that it should be tied
to a
basket that consisted of dollars, euros and oil in those relative
proportions. Bt the dinar should go into the basket at whatever the
current levels are. In any case, the odds that this proposal will be
adopted by the authorities are even lower now than when I made it.
Q: Do you feel with the amount of Dinar stated to be in circulation
(15-20
Trillion) that a peg such as the one you suggest is possible?
A: Given my answer to the first question, the advisability of the
proposal
is not affected by the amount of money that has been created in the
meantime (assuming that this money supply is by now fully reflected in
current exchange rates and prices of goods).
Q: Would you consider the Iraqi Dinar (currency) a good investment?
A: No. This is not a suitable investment for most individual
non-Iraqi
citizens, in large part because it is not a convertible currency traded
in
liquid international markets. (Also because the prospects for the
Iraqi
government do not look great to me, but many of your readers can judge
that
for themselves.)**********
Feel free to post my answers on your website. I don't want to
participate
directly myself, because I already get a lot more email on this subject
than I want.

One can't say how valuable a post like this is in this forum. You have capped a multiude of answers to questions people may have from this forum. In the future, I would hope to see more from Mr Frankel and yourself regarding this. We went into this with our eyes wide open, now you have turned on the light for all to see. Thank you Inscrutable!!!

T

BTW...this is the area that most concerns me.
30-03-2007, 08:59 PM
Inscrutable

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lunar

Inscrutable
Once again you have gone out of your way to obtain and share valuable information....thanx.

No problem, be sure to sign up for my conference call scheduled for 2009. my guest will be Homer and Marge. :ro_emote:
30-03-2007, 09:03 PM
davzgirl

Who is.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by notazbad2000

One can't say how valuable a post like this is in this forum. You have capped a multiude of answers to questions people may have from this forum. In the future, I would hope to see more from Mr Frankel and yourself regarding this. We went into this with our eyes wide open, now you have turned on the light for all to see. Thank you Inscrutable!!!

T

Hi Inscrutable,

For those of us (newbie investors) who are still 'opening our eyes' can you provide a brief explanation of who this person is? From what I see in your email, he has nothing but derogatory statements about the dinar. Has this always been his attitude toward it, and if so, why would you want him to visit our forum? Is he saying that this many of us are wrong in our beliefs of this investment (it sure seems to be his view)? Is this person someone we should be concerned with and prepare to abandon this ship? :help: What is your take on his comments, or were these the comments you were expecting to receive?

I am just trying to grasp this and (I guess) assure myself that we (my family) have not jumped aboard a sinking ship. I know all the news coming out the last few days/weeks does seem to be positive, but I am also seeing where some things are, in a manner of speaking, rocking the boat like a storm surge in the middle of the ocean.

Any 'life jacket' that is not emblazened with TITANIC would be greatly appreciated. I just don't know sometimes what to make of all this 'back and forth' info...

Patty
30-03-2007, 09:15 PM
Sudden Impact

I'd like to know too

Is this guy God's assistant that his opinion is so valued? Wassup with this? :wacko:
30-03-2007, 09:15 PM
Inscrutable

Sure, here you go. Kinda defetes the purpose of me removing his email address but since he's listed at Harvard publicly I don't see a problem.

Jeffrey Frankel's Profile at Harvard University

A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar: Jeffrey Frankel

Quote:

Originally Posted by davzgirl

Hi Inscrutable,

For those of us (newbie investors) who are still 'opening our eyes' can you provide a brief explanation of who this person is? From what I see in your email, he has nothing but derogatory statements about the dinar. Has this always been his attitude toward it, and if so, why would you want him to visit our forum? Is he saying that this many of us are wrong in our beliefs of this investment (it sure seems to be his view)? Is this person someone we should be concerned with and prepare to abandon this ship? :help: What is your take on his comments, or were these the comments you were expecting to receive?

I am just trying to grasp this and (I guess) assure myself that we (my family) have not jumped aboard a sinking ship. I know all the news coming out the last few days/weeks does seem to be positive, but I am also seeing where some things are, in a manner of speaking, rocking the boat like a storm surge in the middle of the ocean.

Any 'life jacket' that is not emblazened with TITANIC would be greatly appreciated. I just don't know sometimes what to make of all this 'back and forth' info...

Patty
30-03-2007, 09:25 PM
goldraker

He states that the NID/IQD is a bad investment. Cause it's not on the International markets? Well DA, what do dose he think we are waiting for? This is why we are holding hard currency! We chose to get in before paper contracts are traded. For this IMHO we will be handsomely rewarded!!!!!!!!!!!!
30-03-2007, 09:27 PM
Lunar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

No problem, be sure to sign up for my conference call scheduled for 2009. my guest will be Homer and Marge. :ro_emote:

Think I'll pass...everyone knows these conference calls are BS
30-03-2007, 09:28 PM
neno

Inscrutable. Help me understand this....

Quote:

To fix the dinar simply to oil alone may be too radical a proposal. While it would facilitate the recovery and expansion of the oil sector, it might at the same time discourage production of other internationally tradeable goods by shifting the entire burden of price uncertainty on to them. My proposal for Iraq, therefore, is to add oil to the basket of currencies to which the dinar is pegged. For simplicity, give equal weight to all three units. Or, what is almost equivalent, define the value of the dinar as one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a euro, plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil.

Ok now with that above. Just for instance lets say that the Value of the Iraqi Dinar comes in at 1:1 and I have 1 dinar. if there is a Basket as suggested by this economonist, what is my 1 dinar worth to me, if I wanted to cash it in at lets say Chase? I am thinking that that is $1.48
30-03-2007, 09:31 PM
Inscrutable

Before everyone gets all worked up over this, it is just his opinion. I just wanted his opinion because many people have thrown his proposal of the oil peg in the mix of revaluation discussion. He doesn't control Iraq's finances in any way shape or form, just another opinion.

Now if Zubaidi and Shabibi reply to my email in the same tone then we should worry.
30-03-2007, 09:37 PM
Inscrutable

The value would be based on the current day's rate of one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a euro, plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil.

.33 US + .44 USD/EUR + .65 Oil = $1.42

Quote:

Originally Posted by neno

Ok now with that above. Just for instance lets say that the Value of the Iraqi Dinar comes in at 1:1 and I have 1 dinar. if there is a Basket as suggested by this economonist, what is my 1 dinar worth to me, if I wanted to cash it in at lets say Chase? I am thinking that that is $1.48
30-03-2007, 09:38 PM
neno

No Problem

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

Before everyone gets all worked up over this, it is just his opinion. I just wanted his opinion because many people have thrown his proposal of the oil peg in the mix of revaluation discussion. He doesn't control Iraq's finances in any way shape or form, just another opinion.

Now if Zubaidi and Shabibi reply to my email in the same tone then we should worry.

I just want to know the equal of the equation. I have heard SGS talk talk this before as well as Adster. But OSw has always hung with his Kurd contacts of .30 So my guess of OSW's .30 is and might be just the 1/3 of the dollar. It is just for my own checking lol
30-03-2007, 09:40 PM
neno

Thanks Bro'

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

The value would be based on the current day's rate of one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a euro, plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil.

.33 US + .44 USD/EUR + .65 Oil = $1.42

I wasnt for off. Just wanted to make sure I understood a Basket Currency Value. Thanks.
30-03-2007, 09:51 PM
Inscrutable

Quote:

Originally Posted by neno

I wasnt for off. Just wanted to make sure I understood a Basket Currency Value. Thanks.

You were almost on the mark, I'm sure you'll settle for six cent less.:biggrin:
30-03-2007, 10:02 PM
davzgirl

Thanks for the aspirin to calm my heart attack

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

Before everyone gets all worked up over this, it is just his opinion. I just wanted his opinion because many people have thrown his proposal of the oil peg in the mix of revaluation discussion. He doesn't control Iraq's finances in any way shape or form, just another opinion.

Now if Zubaidi and Shabibi reply to my email in the same tone then we should worry.

:toofunny: Did you send them this same email? I would be interested to know if they said yes to your request for a visit to our forum :woohoo:.

I wasn't meaning to come across as being 'worked up' over this. I cherishb all that I read and have grown to respect and value the postings of many of you as I have read through many threads here. With you being one of those respected people Inscrutable, I was just wondering how much validity you gave to this person's comments.

I'm not sure if I was missing something in the links you provided, but IMO, this guy's info has TITANIC written all over it as far as this investment goes...though I must say since I am still attempting to understand some of the lingo, there were parts of it that I hope someday to understand, but for now, remains a little deep for me.

Thanks for your clarification of this being 'only his opinion.' I saw Harvard, published in the Financial Times (which I know nothing about), and you emailing him...my first thought was "this guy must have some valid, very believable credentials and information." Then I saw his responses to your questions and my heart went down faster than the Titanic.

I appreciate the information and continue to look forward all of our dreams coming to fruition :beer: .

Thanks,
Patty
30-03-2007, 10:15 PM
davzgirl

Hanging much better now

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

The value would be based on the current day's rate of one-third of a dollar plus one-third of a euro, plus one-hundredth of a barrel of oil.

.33 US + .44 USD/EUR + .65 Oil = $1.42

Well, if this is the take, my heart dances much better :woohoo: :banana: .

Here is to all our dreams :cheers:

Patty
30-03-2007, 10:35 PM
RetMil

In all fairness, he did say "bad investment for most investors", and we have to admit that most folks do shy away from the dinar. I think we are the minority that does not have a problem with it. We are far more informed than most about the dinar and we understand the risks. As long as we know what we do, this is an appropriate investment for us.
30-03-2007, 10:40 PM
Inscrutable

Quote:

Originally Posted by RetMil

In all fairness, he did say "bad investment for most investors", and we have to admit that most folks do shy away from the dinar. I think we are the minority that does not have a problem with it. We are far more informed than most about the dinar and we understand the risks. As long as we know what we do, this is an appropriate investment for us.

He actually said "for most individual non-Iraqi citizens" but stated because of convertibility?
30-03-2007, 10:44 PM
goldraker

We know much more about Iraq than this dude dose guaranteed!
30-03-2007, 10:51 PM
davzgirl

Remember, just his opinion

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inscrutable

He actually said "for most individual non-Iraqi citizens" but stated because of convertibility?

Now that my heart has calmed down to normal again :ro_emote: , my brain is working a little better as well. Again, in all fairness, we also have to stop and think...this article is more than 3 years old. Think back to what was happening in Iraq then and the progress they hae made in the last three years. Though he still views this as a bad investment for some, like Inscrutable says, this is just his opinion...not unlike the opinion of many others all around the world. We just wait and prove them wrong :bringiton.
31-03-2007, 05:55 AM
dougmyers

Taking into consideration the article is 3 years old and the fact that his opinion has not changed and he says the currency is not convertible tells me he has not kept up with current affairs.

Dinar is convertible in several ways as now some banks sell and buy Dinar and the fact that Jordan, Kuwait, and I think Dubai honor and exchange Dinar.

As I see this is turning ever so slowly in our favor as a total convertible currency as the CBI is doing its best to follow the IMF guide lines to be accepted and approved on article VIII .

His figures of percentages of value on the Dinar linked to the Oil, Euro, and Dollar are a stretch as I think Oil is too volatile but the other two would help calm the value fluctuations some.

I knew it was risk when I went into this and it has already gained 14% in value this year. The CBI can keep doing what they are currently doing and I will be happy.

But they could speed it up some and it would not hurt a thing.

Time is on our side if we can wait a little longer.