Thread: Wheres the risk?

Hi there,

Ive been researching as much as I can before investing in the dinar. I found this information from MMG written by a currency trader who warns against it.

heres what he says, can anyone explain this?

-----------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't invest in Dinar right now. Iraq has all but been destroyed and the country is in a state of civil war. The US may talk big about staying the course but pretty much all of the "Coalition of the Willing" has left already.
The 1,800 Italians completed their departure on December 2. The 2,400 Poles say they are in the process of leaving. The South Koreans are reducing their contingent from 3,300 to 2,600. The Australians have come down from 2,000 to 1,400. The 1,650 Ukrainians, the 1,345 Dutch, and the 1,300 Spanish are long gone. Also gone are the 600 Japanese, the 462 Bulgarians, the 423 Thais, the 368 Hondurans, the 302 Dominicans, the 300 Hungarians, the 230 Nicaraguans, the 192 Singaporeans, the 150 Norwegians, the 128 Portuguese, plus assorted smaller forces. This pretty much leaves the UK and US to try and do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing, while their only supply route from Kuwait is about to become 400 miles of undefended hell for them. Getting supplies from Jordon is a no go. They would have to go through the heart of the resistance in Anbar province, and the Turks aren't even going to consider helping the US get supplies through from their side because the US has been arming and supporting the PKK(Listed as a terrorist group) in terrorism operations inside Iran, but they also use that US support to commit terrorist acts in Turkey. Go figure.

As for the reconstrustion.. What reconstruction? All the billions poured into Iraq have been handed to companies like KBR and Bechtel to line the pockets of the executives of those companies. Several years after the invasion, pretty much nobody outside of the "Green Zone" has electricity or even clean, running water. Much of the "reconstruction" money went missing somewhere after being handed out without being recorded or audited.

All this, and you still want to buy the currency of this country? As a currency trader I can tell you, the fundamentals look bad. I wouldn't recommend buying any Dinars except if you collect coins and banknotes as a hobby.
--------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by rudutdo

Hi there,

Ive been researching as much as I can before investing in the dinar. I found this information from MMG written by a currency trader who warns against it.

heres what he says, can anyone explain this?

-----------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't invest in Dinar right now. Iraq has all but been destroyed and the country is in a state of civil war. The US may talk big about staying the course but pretty much all of the "Coalition of the Willing" has left already.
The 1,800 Italians completed their departure on December 2. The 2,400 Poles say they are in the process of leaving. The South Koreans are reducing their contingent from 3,300 to 2,600. The Australians have come down from 2,000 to 1,400. The 1,650 Ukrainians, the 1,345 Dutch, and the 1,300 Spanish are long gone. Also gone are the 600 Japanese, the 462 Bulgarians, the 423 Thais, the 368 Hondurans, the 302 Dominicans, the 300 Hungarians, the 230 Nicaraguans, the 192 Singaporeans, the 150 Norwegians, the 128 Portuguese, plus assorted smaller forces. This pretty much leaves the UK and US to try and do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing, while their only supply route from Kuwait is about to become 400 miles of undefended hell for them. Getting supplies from Jordon is a no go. They would have to go through the heart of the resistance in Anbar province, and the Turks aren't even going to consider helping the US get supplies through from their side because the US has been arming and supporting the PKK(Listed as a terrorist group) in terrorism operations inside Iran, but they also use that US support to commit terrorist acts in Turkey. Go figure.

As for the reconstrustion.. What reconstruction? All the billions poured into Iraq have been handed to companies like KBR and Bechtel to line the pockets of the executives of those companies. Several years after the invasion, pretty much nobody outside of the "Green Zone" has electricity or even clean, running water. Much of the "reconstruction" money went missing somewhere after being handed out without being recorded or audited.

All this, and you still want to buy the currency of this country? As a currency trader I can tell you, the fundamentals look bad. I wouldn't recommend buying any Dinars except if you collect coins and banknotes as a hobby.
--------------------------------------------------------

"can anyone explain this?" Oh boy! Where to begin. I would simply tell you to ignore his advice because he obviously is unaware of anything except what he's been spoon fed by the mainstream media. You can either see the once in a lifetime potential here or you can't. Those willing to take the risk will be rewarded.

Originally Posted by rudutdo

Hi there,

Ive been researching as much as I can before investing in the dinar. I found this information from MMG written by a currency trader who warns against it.

heres what he says, can anyone explain this?

-----------------------------------------------------------
I wouldn't invest in Dinar right now. Iraq has all but been destroyed and the country is in a state of civil war. The US may talk big about staying the course but pretty much all of the "Coalition of the Willing" has left already.
The 1,800 Italians completed their departure on December 2. The 2,400 Poles say they are in the process of leaving. The South Koreans are reducing their contingent from 3,300 to 2,600. The Australians have come down from 2,000 to 1,400. The 1,650 Ukrainians, the 1,345 Dutch, and the 1,300 Spanish are long gone. Also gone are the 600 Japanese, the 462 Bulgarians, the 423 Thais, the 368 Hondurans, the 302 Dominicans, the 300 Hungarians, the 230 Nicaraguans, the 192 Singaporeans, the 150 Norwegians, the 128 Portuguese, plus assorted smaller forces. This pretty much leaves the UK and US to try and do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing, while their only supply route from Kuwait is about to become 400 miles of undefended hell for them. Getting supplies from Jordon is a no go. They would have to go through the heart of the resistance in Anbar province, and the Turks aren't even going to consider helping the US get supplies through from their side because the US has been arming and supporting the PKK(Listed as a terrorist group) in terrorism operations inside Iran, but they also use that US support to commit terrorist acts in Turkey. Go figure.

As for the reconstrustion.. What reconstruction? All the billions poured into Iraq have been handed to companies like KBR and Bechtel to line the pockets of the executives of those companies. Several years after the invasion, pretty much nobody outside of the "Green Zone" has electricity or even clean, running water. Much of the "reconstruction" money went missing somewhere after being handed out without being recorded or audited.

All this, and you still want to buy the currency of this country? As a currency trader I can tell you, the fundamentals look bad. I wouldn't recommend buying any Dinars except if you collect coins and banknotes as a hobby.
--------------------------------------------------------

I would say this Guy probably told people to stay away from Microsoft when it first came out....... "Computers who the hell are going to use them"....... This Guy obviously does not know Iraq and I would guess he does not anything about the Dinar. I bet you are much more informed than he!!

We are all Currency Traders now. So You can take His advise or you can Take the "Dinar Gang" at Rolclubs advise. That is the choice in life you have. Me, I would do my own D&D and Make my own Choices that I could live with. Have a Great Adventure. I will give you a couple different Statements Below.

1. Presidential Order 13303: Allows US Citizens to invest in the New Iraq . Under this Order and the Coalition Provisional Government Order 39, a US citizen has the same rights to investments as an Iraqi citizen

IRAQ (PRWEB) March 2, 2004 -- Investment in the new Iraq is guaranteed under the Presidential Order 13303 removing sanctions on investment in Iraq . The new order allows for a restructuring of the banking system in Iraq . US citizens are allowed to invest in Currency, Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate and Business in Iraq .

Iraq has a new currency to replace Iraq ’s two currencies, one of which was easily counterfeited and mostly circulated in a single denomination. Banks issue only the new currency and government employees paid in cash will receive their salaries in the new currency. Until January 15, 2004 the old and new currencies will circulate freely at a fixed exchange rate. Exchange between the old and new currencies is conducted at now charge at multiple exchange points around the country.

The other financial market structures are strong:

95 percent of all pre-war bank customers have service and first-time customers are opening accounts daily. Iraqi banks are making loans to finance businesses. The central bank is fully independent. Iraq has one of the world’s most growth-oriented investment and banking laws.

The new Iraqi dinar which is printed bu De La Rue company in the US and Great Britian, is valued at just 2 tenths of one cent today. The US treasury has a strong dinar policy and is working with the CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority) to reinstate a strong decentralized banking system in Iraq . By December 2004 there will be six Western Banks in Iraq and six Iraqi Banks outside Iraq in operation. In March Three banks were given licence to operate in Iraq, National Bank of Kuwait, HSBC Bank and Charter bank of England .

2. Why Invest in Iraq?
Released by the Coalition Provisional Authority
At the "Conference on the Role of the Private Sector in the Development of the New Iraq"
Madrid, Spain
October 23, 2003

Iraq is a uniquely attractive place to do business in the Middle East. Iraq has bright, hardworking, and resourceful people, rich agricultural resources, abundant natural resources including oil, phosphate, and sulphur, a population of close to 25 million people, and a central Middle East location. Iraq is rapidly recovering from the effects of the war and decades of under-investment. When the recovery is over, the potential of Iraq’s people and abundant resources will be unleashed in the country’s newly free markets.

The Market

Iraq has close to 25 million people with pent-up demand for goods and services they have been unable to purchase for years. Since the war, consumption has increased as a result of a significant increase in wages and the opening of international trade. A surge in investment financed by foreign donors will result in new jobs which will further accelerate consumption and growth in 2004. The recent establishment of a new, sound currency, transparent legal environment, and a friendly business environment will help ensure strong, sustained growth in the years ahead.

The Legal Environment

The new foreign direct investment law permits investment by foreigners with very few restrictions. Signed in September, it permits foreign investors to own up to 100% of enterprises in all sectors except natural resources. Profits, dividends, interest, and royalties may be fully remitted. Land may not be bought, but it may be leased for up to 40 years. Iraq recently passed a new banking law permitting six international banks to soon begin providing credit and other banking services in Iraq. Iraq is currently establishing a new set of commercial laws to assure investors of enforceable property and other rights, bankruptcy protection, foreclosure capability, and a well-functioning judicial system for settling commercial disputes. Taxes and tariffs are low. Iraq has a flat 5 percent tariff. Currently there is holiday on corporate and personal income taxes. Corporate taxes are limited after the tax holiday at 15%.

Attractive Industries

Oil and related businesses dominate the economy in Iraq. However, since the war the private sector has been expanding rapidly in retailing, wholesaling, and transport. As a result, consumer packaged goods and electronics are doing well. Construction is also benefiting from the rebuilding efforts underway. The heaviest infrastructure investments in 2004 are likely to be in electric power, oil production, refining, distribution, and water treatment. Industries such as cement, aggregates, and other construction materials are expected to do well. Shifts towards a more market-oriented economy, especially the replacement of the food basket with cash payments in 2004, will spur domestic food and beverage processing and distribution. Iraq production of petroleum, natural gas, phosphates, and sulfur will drive demand for equipment related to these industries such as drilling and pipeline equipment, excavating equipment, processing equipment, and refining equipment. Just as important as these mineral resources, Iraq has vast areas of fertile land and the most precious commodity of all in the Middle East, water. After decades of underinvestment, Iraq’s agriculture sector is poised to make the country once again the bread basket of the Middle East.

Who is this guy?

Perhaps he didn't notice the state of the exchange rate recently?

Has he not seen the value increasing daily? Even a mild trader could ahave already made money if he only started this month! From December 1st till now you would be in the black!

Or maybe he's been hired by the government to try and thwart speculators...?

Fun to read it anyhow......thanks for the post and the good laugh!

thanks for all your comments, very helpful.

So helpful in fact that i am now an official currency trader myself holding a fantastic 125,000 Dinar. Woo hoo

Ive just exchanged currency from pounds to Iraq Dinar... The only risk to me with this investment is that the value could drop below the price I bought it at and never recover.

Saying this, im here for the long road. This is an investment for my future and I dont mind waiting 5-10 years for the jackpot.

If it never happens, or it stays at 1380, then I still havent lost anything, Ill change back what I need. Its just money in the bank isnt it?

Or have I completely missed something?

Tim

Originally Posted by rudutdo

Ive just exchanged currency from pounds to Iraq Dinar... The only risk to me with this investment is that the value could drop below the price I bought it at and never recover.

Saying this, im here for the long road. This is an investment for my future and I dont mind waiting 5-10 years for the jackpot.

If it never happens, or it stays at 1380, then I still havent lost anything, Ill change back what I need. Its just money in the bank isnt it?

Or have I completely missed something?

Tim

You haven't missed anything. Your assessment of the risk factor is pretty much right on the mark. In my opinion the only way we could lose is if the country completely falls apart, the government collapses and they have to go back to square one and start all over again. The prospect of that happening I believe is pretty slim.

Obviously a crap currency trader

Don't take this guys post seriously.