IMF Lifts South Africa Growth Forecast to 3.2%, Says Rand is `Overvalued'
South African Rand is considered as a "commodity currency"..although not as well know.
IMF Lifts South Africa Growth Forecast to 3.2%, Says Rand is `Overvalued'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...ervalued-.html
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2010 growth forecast for South Africa to 3.2 percent, and encouraged the government to consider tax breaks for companies hit by an “overvalued” rand.
The economy will probably expand 3.6 percent in 2011 and 3.9 percent in 2012, the Washington-based lender said in a country report on its website today. The lender had previously forecast 2.6 percent growth for this year.
Africa’s biggest economy has rebounded from its first recession in 17 years after interest rates were reduced to a 30- year low and global demand for exports increased. The rand’s 32 percent surge against the dollar since the beginning of 2009 is undermining that growth, increasing calls from exporters and labor unions for the government to step up action to curb the currency’s gains.
South African authorities and IMF staff “saw some merit in temporary targeted intervention to help the enterprises that are being most adversely affected by the strength of the rand,” the IMF said. These include increasing the investment tax allowance for small- and medium-sized companies and reducing the cost of hedging against the rand, it said.
The IMF compiled its report after senior staff met in May with Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, Economic Development Minister Ebrahim Patel, National Planning Commission head Trevor Manuel and central bank Governor Gill Marcus.
‘Fair Assessment’
The IMF report was a “fair assessment” of economic conditions and the government will consider the recommendations, the National Treasury said in an e-mailed statement today.
The rand is overvalued by between 5 percent and 15 percent, the IMF said, adding that there was a “large degree of uncertainty around these estimates.”
Easing foreign exchange controls further to help weaken the rand should continue, though a tax on portfolio inflows may not be effective, the IMF said.
South Africa’s ruling African National Congress is scheduled this week to discuss a proposal to impose the inflow tax. National Treasury Director-General Lesetja Kganyago said on Sept. 7 that such a tax won’t work because South Africa relies on foreign investment in stocks and bonds to finance its current account deficit.
Treasury Response
“The Minister of Finance has on numerous occasions, including in the 2010 budget, called for a stable and competitive real exchange rate,” the Treasury said. “National Treasury has agreed to support the South African Reserve Bank to accumulate foreign exchange reserves.”
The government should stick to its plan to curb expenditure to help reduce the budget deficit, which the IMF estimated will probably reach 4.7 percent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2012, from 5.9 percent this year.
Rising public-sector wage demands may “jeopardize” the government’s fiscal targets, it said.
Gordhan is due to publish revised budget and growth data in his Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Oct. 27. In February, he estimated the economy would expand 2.3 percent this year and the deficit will reach 6.2 percent of GDP.
Business News: Wal-Mart offers to buy Massmart for $4.25B
Business News: Wal-Mart offers to buy Massmart for $4.25B
http://www.baxterbulletin.com/articl...rt+for++4.25B+
BENTONVILLE, Ark. (AP) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is offering to buy South African retailer Massmart Holdings Ltd. for approximately $4.25 billion.
A deal would give the world's largest retailer an opening to expand in Africa, a fast-growing region.
"South Africa possesses attractive market dynamics, favorable demographic trends and a growing economy," Executive Vice President Andy Bond said in a statement.
Wal-Mart said Monday that it would pay 148 rands ($21.11) per share for Massmart, which has 201.5 million shares outstanding according to Thomson Reuters. Further details of the proposed deal were not disclosed.
Massmart, based in Johannesburg, runs 290 stores in 13 countries in Africa, with most in South Africa. It also manages eight wholesale and retail chains under various brand names.
The push to expand its presence in an emerging market comes as Wal-Mart faces sluggish sales in the U.S. Wal-Mart is aiming to pump up domestic sales with an aggressive push into urban markets, planning a small format that's a fraction of the size of its supercenters.
That expansion is expected to be detailed in October at Wal-Mart's meeting with analysts at its headquarters in Bentonville, Ark.
Wal-Mart has more than 8,500 stores under 55 different names in 15 countries. It has more than 4,000 stores in the U.S. Its fiscal 2010 sales were $405 billion.