Daily News

Nikkei 225 has sharply dropped after the hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve. The central bank claimed it might raise interest rates in 2023 (or even in late 2022) and also started a discussion on cutting bond buys. Well, that decision pushed the USD dollar up and pressed some stocks down. Which ones? Stocks that were favored in reflation trade or, in other words, those that benefited from higher inflation: value and cyclical stocks. The worst performers of the last week were banks and cyclical-heavy Japanese stocks.
The Japanese stock index Nikkei dropped by 4% – the most since April! It has a huge proportion of economically sensitive stocks, that’s why the hit was so hard. Uniqlo (Fast Retailing Co.), the clothing retailer, and the chip-equipment producer Tokyo Electron Ltd. dropped the most on the index. Besides, the slow vaccination pace in Japan and the dark outlook for the Tokyo Olympics pressed the stock index down as well. Still, the JP 225 is at the all-time highs. This drop may be just a healthy correction ahead of the further rally up.
The JP 225 INDEX is moving inside the descending channel. The long lower shadow of the last candle gives a bullish signal. The sentiment has started changing, and the stock index may rise to the 50-day moving average of 28,900. The breakout above this level will drive the pair to the last week’s high of 29,400. This resistance level won’t be broken on the first try as the stock index has failed to do that a few times. On the flip side, the move below the 200-day moving average of 27,500 will push JP 225 to the next round number of 27,000.

https://fbs.com/img/articles/31625/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (21.06.2021) Greatest sale of Japanese stocks

These days, investors’ attention is on Microsoft ahead of the company’s Windows 11 event on June 24. MSFT will uncover the “next generation of Windows”, that’s why the stock price has surged: the tech giant reached the all-time high of $263.50. It is still unclear what the company will release during the event, but investors tend to follow the rule “buy the rumor, sell the fact”.
Forecasts

According to TipRanks, Microsoft currently holds a “Strong Buy” recommendation. According to JPMorgan, the stock price will hit $270 – the lowest price target among other banks. Goldman Sachs set a price target at $340, which is 30% higher than the current levels.
Cloud acquisition

Just to remind you, Microsoft is not only Office 365, it’s a lot more! Think of Xbox and Teams. The company's cloud offerings are Azure infrastructure services, Office 365 productivity software, and Dynamics enterprise software. Besides, Microsoft owns LinkedIn, Skype, OneDrive, and GitHub.
Microsoft takes one of the leading positions in cloud computing among Google and Amazon. After the coronavirus outbreak, cloud services become essential for most companies. In 2020, the company introduced Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare. In April 2021, it bought Nuance, a leading provider of artificial intelligence services for healthcare. You can hardly find any more important industries amid the Covid-19 pandemic than cloud computing, AI, and healthcare. It seems that Microsoft is engaged in almost all high-potential industries!
Technical outlook

Microsoft is moving inside the ascending channel. Now, it’s getting closer to the psychological mark of $270.00. It’s unlikely to break it on the first try as the RSI indicator is approaching the 30.0 level, which signals the stock will be soon overbought. However, if Microsoft surprises investors on June 24, it may skyrocket! Keep updated! Support levels are at the low of June 16 at $255.00 and the 100-day moving average of $245.00.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31659/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (22.06.2021) Microsoft hit record high

First Friday of July is here! This means we'll be seeing a new NFP broadcast at 15:30 MT (GMT + 3)! Why is everyone so excited about this data? The reason why it's cool and easy - it makes the US dollar so uncertain! What is the NFP? Non-farm payrolls (NFP) shows how many people worked the previous month, excluding those who worked in the agriculture industry. It emerges with two important hints: unemployment rate and average income every hour. Combination, they represent strong fuel for American currency. Last month, NFP's actual figure came out at + 559 K (under estimated + 645 K). It disappoints traders and weakens the US dollar over any other currency. This time, as analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 700 thousand, we might see a completely different picture! Remember:

If real data is better than predictions, USD will increase!

Alternative scenario will lower the US dollar down.
We recommend you consider EUR / USD, USD / JPY, and GBP / USD to trade in this event! How about you? Do you already have a strategy to trade the NFP?
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31767/1...1200_q90v3.png

Gold managed to regain above its key support area mentioned in our previous reports at 1769 USD/Oz, which represents its 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent rally (April – June). On Friday, Gold advanced further nearing 1790 USD/Oz, while the technical indicators has turned slightly higher. This confirms our bullish outlook in the short and medium terms. In the meantime, we prefer to long gold between 1780 and 1770 USD/Oz with a stop at last week’s lows, as revisiting that low would change the major outlook once again. On the upside view, Gold needs to break above 1800 USD/Oz in the coming days, which would be another positive factor in both short and medium terms.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31822/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (05.07.2021) New Gold Signal. FBS analytic articles.

GBP/USD has managed to rise for the third trading day in a row including today’s Asian session, while the daily technical indicators are moving higher gradually. This supports the idea of a short-term retracement to the upside before the downtrend resumes later. In the meantime, GBP/USD is nearing a new selling zone which stands at 1.3950 and represents its 100-day MA followed by the psychological resistance at 1.40. This is the area where we will be interested in shorting GBP/USD not only on the short-term but on the medium-term as well, despite the fact that GBP/USD managed to hold above its uptrend line on the daily chart. We believe that this is a short-term play before the downside pressure resumes especially with the continuous estimates of a sooner tapering by the Federal Reserve.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31844/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (06.07.2021) GPD/USD Near supply Zone. Fbs Articles.

What happened?

China’s tech companies have lost $823 billion in total since their February highs. The losses are huge! What’s the reason? Beijing expands its crackdown on the technology sector and this fact worries investors as the selloff may be far from over.
China’s authorities tighten the rules for the country’s largest companies, especially for those who are listed overseas or looking for selling their stocks abroad. It happened after Didi, China’s Uber, went public in the US. That triggered the sell-off of other China’s tech giants such as Tencent, Alibaba, JD.Com Inc., Baidu, and Meituan.
“The selling will continue in the third quarter. The measures from authorities will keep coming,” said Pegasus Fund Managers.
Most investors are going to take a “sell first, talk later” approach to reduce risks in their portfolio, claimed United First Partners.
“In case the market sentiment goes into extreme pessimism and we see the Hang Seng Tech Index down 20% from here, it could be a rare opportunity to buy some fast-growing Chinese internet companies at extremely attractive prices,” GAM’s Jian Shi claimed.

*We will analyze the Hang Seng Index (HK50), which is available for trading with FBS. If you notice, the quote above tells about the Hang Seng Tech Index, but both the indices are strongly correlated with each other.
Technical outlook

The HK 50 index has reversed up from the 200-day moving average of 27,600. Why? After a big drop always goes the big rise. Now the index is getting closer to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 28,335. If it crosses it, the way up to the 38.2% Fibo level of 28,900 will be clear. Support levels are the 200-day moving average of 27,600 and the psychological mark of 27,000.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31878/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (07.07.2021) China's tech selloff. Time to buy the Dips? Fbs analytic news.

EUR/USD declined for the third session in a row, reaching as low as 1.1780 but managed to close yesterday’s trading above 1.18 support area, while the technical indicators are heavily oversold on most timeframes, especially on the daily chart. So far, our pending orders to short EURUSD remain unchanged, but the pair is trading far below our orders. Since the technical indicators are heavily oversold, it might be wise to risk some long positions from the current area at 1.18, with a tight stop of 1.1750, with a possibility to retest 1.19 in the coming days. This is just a short term play and won’t change our bearish outlook, especially after the pair broke its trendline on the daily chart which began back in March 2020.
Short-term trade idea for EUR/USD

BUY 1.1800; TP 1.1900; SL 1.1750
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31884/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (08.07.2021) Let's Risk some USD/EUR here. Fbs Analytic news.

What will happen?

The much-awaited earnings season is about to start! The first companies that will deliver their financial results for the second quarter will be Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and PepsiCo.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are American multinational investment banks. They are going to deliver their Q2 financial results on July 13 at 14:30 and 15:30 GMT+3, respectively. The GS’s forecast is $9.96 earnings per share. The JPM’s forecast is $3.16 earnings per share. Last time, the banks beat the estimates due to the rise in wealth and consumer banking revenues after the Covid-19 crisis. However, this time, the result may be weaker than expected as Wall Street analysts have predicted trading revenue at top US banks slumped by 28%.
If Goldman Sachs reveals better-than-expected EPS, it may break above the psychological mark of $380.00, which will open the doors towards the high of June 4 at $390.00. Support levels are the low of June 8 at $360.00 and the 100-day moving average of $350.00.
JPMorgan is getting closer to the key resistance level at the 50-day moving average of $158.00. If the Q2 earnings are strong, it may jump above $158.00, clearing the way up to the all-time high of $167.00. On the flip side, the drop below the low of July 8 at $150.00 will push the stock down to the next support at $147.00.
PepsiCo, the giant beverage company, will reveal its Q2 earnings on July 13 at 13.00 GMT+3. The market expects the company to deliver earnings of $1.53 per share. Most analysts are optimistic about Pepsi’s earnings. Indeed, the coronavirus-related costs should be reduced due to a successful vaccine rollout in the US, which accounts for roughly 2/3 of total Pepsi’s profits.
If PepsiCo reveals strong financial data, its stock price may jump above the $150.00 psychological mark, which will open the doors to the next round number of $155.00. Support levels are the 50-day moving average of $147.00 and the low of June 24 at $146.00.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31920/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (12.07.2021) Earnings season starts! FBS analytic news

USDCAD began the week slightly higher reaching as high as 1.2510 but failed to sustain these gains and dropped back by the end of the US session and closed the day at 1.2440 forming a bearish shooting star on the daily chart. On the other hand, the RSI indictors has broken its up-trend line which confirms the downside retracement move. With that being said, we would like to short USDCAD for a short term play at the current area around 1.2455 with a stop at yesterday’s high at 1.2510 only, with an initial target at 1.24 followed by 1.2360 which could be see in the coming days, especially if the Bank of Canada decided to taper again this week.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31928/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (13.07.2021) USD/CAD short trade. FBS analytuc news.

What will happen?

International Business Machines, a huge IT company, which provides integrated solutions and services worldwide, will announce its earnings results for the first quarter on July 20 at 00.00 MT. Let’s get ready!
How to trade on earnings?

It’s really easy! Just compare the forecasted earnings with the actual and follow the rule below.

• If the results are better than expected, IBM will increase its value.
• Otherwise, if earnings are worse than the forecasts, IBM will fall.

The good news for FBS traders is that they can make both buy and sell trades while trading stocks –the rules are almost the same as for the currency pairs. So, you don’t need to already have an asset to sell it.
What are fundamental factors?

Not great, but with good potential! IBM has issues with its financial position as short-term assets cover neither short-term nor long-term liabilities. Also, IBM’s debt to equity ratio (260,7%) is considered high. Nevertheless, IBM is undervalued based on the cash flows the company is expected to generate in the future.
How has IBM been doing?

It was doing good! Global digitalization is increasing a positive trend for IBM’s earnings. This trend is expected to continue. The company primarily generates revenues from Cloud & Cognitive Software Segment. During the 2nd quarter of 2021 IBM has signed contracts with Verizon offering their Cloud services to run its 5G networks. Also, the company entered 30 new partnerships in the edge computing market segment, such as Intel, Lumen Technologies, NetApp, etc. These facts indicate a possible increase in IBM's financial performance during the 2nd quarter of 2021.
Let’s look at the chart!

On the 4-hour chart, IBM located between 145$ and 137$ lines. 145$ trend line, also, is an interception point of 50 and 100-period moving averages, so it seems to be a very strong resistance level. If IBM would break this resistance the goal would be 152$.
On the other hand, the move down to the 200-period and breaking through it could send IBM price down to 137$ and 132$ support lines.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31958/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (14.07.2021) IBM earning report July 20

What happened?

It seems that Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates are still discussing a potential agreement over OPEC+ policy about cooling oil prices by increasing oil supply.
Oil demand forecast.

After OPEC+ reduced oil production by almost 10 million barrels per day in 2020 to control the supply level during the pandemic, the world economy has started to go through a recovery stage. According to OPEC+ forecast, by Q4 2021, global oil demand will average 99.45 million b/d, compared with 99.98 million b/d in 2019. That is why during the last two weeks OPEC+ has been discussing an increase in oil production. In case this decision is approved, the price correction will be inevitable.
Technical analyses.

On the daily chart, Brent is trading above 50, 100, 200-day moving averages. It has formed a rising wedge with a divergence on the RSI oscillator, which is a bearish pattern. As soon as the price will cross the bottom line of the wedge it might go down to the 73$, 69.50$, 57$ support levels. Until the bottom line of the pattern has not been crossed the main goal is 77$.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31973/1...1200_q90v3.png


Reference: FBS (15.07.2021) How will the Brent OPEC+ decision influence the price? FBS analytic news

China released GDP: good or bad?

15 July, China released the data about the national gross domestic product. GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2021 was 7.9% comparing with the same period of 2020. The growth rate in the 2nd quarter was slower than the 18.3% growth registered in the 1st one. This fact describes how much the Chinese economy had suffered from COVID-19. Rapidly recovered China’s economy basically reaches pre-covid trend.
The growth rate of the world's 2nd largest economy has slowed down. However, it is still on track to reach 6% annual growth. Retail sales in June rose 12.1% year over year, which means that people are still spending money, mostly on restaurants and catering services. At the same time, the production of steel and cement decreased in June from the previous month. The combination of these factors suggests that China’s economy is going to rely more on consumer demand. This fact fueled optimism that China’s economic growth is becoming more balanced.
How about COVID-19?

On Wednesday, the National Health Commission reported that the country has vaccinated at least half of its population at least with one dose as 1.4 billion vaccines have been used. For now, the main goal of China’s anti-Covid-19 campaign is the vaccination of teenagers between 12 and 17 years old by the end of October. As the National Health Commission reports the main goal is to vaccinate at least 70% of the population by the end of the year.
What does it mean for traders?

As China’s economy is 2nd largest in the world it makes a significant impact on the number of assets from the trader’s list. First, the growth of China’s economy has a significant impact on the oil demand in the world.
Second, China is the main export destination for goods from Australia and New Zealand. Chinese economic growth increases the demand for key goods from these countries which leads to an increase in capital flow and respectively forms a tendency for AUD and NZD to appreciate against a basket of currencies. Last but not the least, traders from all over the world use HK50 and Alibaba stocks to invest in China’s economy. Let’s check what is going on with these assets in the next paragraph!
Technical analyses of HK50 and Alibaba stock price.

On the daily HK50 chart, the bullish flag has occurred. The price bounced off the bottom line of the flag and broke through the 200-day moving average. Right now, it is heading towards the top line of the flag, which is 29100. If the price breaks this resistance level the target will be 31000. This is a great opportunity to open a long position! On the flip side, in case the price breaks the support level of 26900, it will aim towards 24900.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/31997/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (16.07.2021) China: the worst has happened? FBS analytic news.

Crude Oil dropped sharply last week right from our selling zone mentioned in our weekly video between 75.50 and 76.60, Brent Crude declined to 72.20’s nearing our 72.14 target mentioned in our weekly video as well. Now when OPEC+ drama is over, the trend hasn't necessarily changed. There are two factors that we need to keep in mind, i) Iran's supply is still expected to hit the global market soon ii) Covid19 is spreading again with a new variant affecting vaccinated people. Some countries already took new measures such as a partial lockdown. If this continues, Oil is likely to remain under pressure. In the meantime, it's wise to close some of the short positions and wait for another opportunity, while it is also possible to move the stop to our entry
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32010/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (19.07.2021) OPEC+ drama is over, what about oil? FBS Analytic news.

What is happening?

Bitcoin has closed its daily candle under the 50-week moving average for the first time since April 2020. The last time Bitcoin broke through this resistance it fell by 57%. If the situation repeats the price will reach approximately $13000 during this bearish market. Also, it broke through the key support level of $31000, which was holding the price from January the 4th, 2021.
The plunge in bitcoin came after a big sell-off in the global stock market. Traders and investors try to hedge their savings, that is why they prefer the US dollar and Treasuries to risky assets like bitcoin.
What puts bitcoin under pressure?

In May 2021, China banned mining and trading cryptocurrencies. China’s central bank also reminded finance and fintech companies not to offer crypto-related services to customers. China was one of the major countries in cryptocurrencies mining, that is why the situation around bitcoin will remain questionable for a while.
Technical analyses

Short-term trade:
On the daily chart, the falling wedge with a bullish divergence has occurred. If the price breaks the top line of the wedge the target will be $34500, which is approximately the 50-day moving average. If the price does not break this resistance, it will drop to the $23500 level.
Long-term trade:
The 50-week moving average is historically the key sup
port level for bitcoin. If the price does not stick above this line by the end of July 25th, the first long-term target will be $23500.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32030/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (20.07.2021) Bitcoin: Bullish market is over. FBS analytic news.

EV’s market is going to explode in the 2020s

By the end of 2020, there were 10 million electric cars registered in the world. The number of electric cars registrations increased by 41% in 2020. Electric bus and truck registrations reached global levels of 600,000 and 31,000, respectively.
Three factors supported EV markets during the pandemic:

• A legislative framework. Many countries accepted regulatory laws about the amount of CO2 emission and zero-emission vehicles.
• Government protection of EV market additional intensives. Many European countries kept electric purchases stimulation and China continues its subsidy campaign.
• Battery cost decrease.

Vehicle manufacturers stay optimistic about the electrification of the car industry. 18 out of 20 announced plans for new electric vehicles models. The availability of heavy electric models is also going to grow together with the four main manufacturers pointing towards the electric future of this segment.
Despite the great support from the government’s campaigns for the EV markets during the pandemic, the amount of stimulus governments spend to support this sector decreases year-to-year. This fact points to the increasing consumer demand: producers are now able to survive on their own.
The near-term perspectives are looking great as, during the Q1 of 2021, global electric car sales grew by 140% compared with the same period of 2020.
In the most common scenario, analysts predict global EV markets to reach 145 million models by 2030, which will be 7% of the road vehicle fleet. However, if governments activate their plans to achieve global ecological plans the global EV market might grow up to 230 million units (12% of the road vehicle fleet).
Despite the success of the EV market during the last years, the ecological problem is still far from being solved. Although new technologies in battery and mass manufacture will reduce the costs of EVs, governments will have to cooperate to reach the climate goal by creating and promoting zero-emission EVs.
Global EVs programs

Electric Vehicles Initiative
In 2010 the Electric vehicles Initiative (EVI) was established under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). The main goal of this forum is to understand the main political problems connected with electric mobility and accelerating the adoption of EV’s worldwide. At 2020-2021 15 countries are taking an active part in this organization, these are Canada, Chile, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
EV30@30 Campaign
In 2017 the EV30@30 Campaign was launched. The main goal of this campaign is to accelerate EVs deployment all over the world and reach the number of 30% EVs sales in each country member. By 2021 besides 14 countries this campaign is supported by 30 organizations including C40; FIA Foundation; Global Fuel Economy Initiative; Hewlett Foundation; Natural Resources Defence Council; REN21; SLoCaT; The Climate Group; UN Environment Programme; UN-Habitat; World Resources Institute; ZEV Alliance; ChargePoint; Energias de Portugal; Enel X; E.ON; Fortum; Iberdrola; Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance; Schneider Electric; TEPCO; Vattenfall and ChargeUp Europe.
Trends in EVs markets

Europe
In 2020, the overall European car market fell by 22%. However, the amount of EVs doubled to 1.4 million overall. Germany registered 395,000 new EVs, France reached the level of 185,000 new units. The UK doubled the number of EVs and reached the level of 176,000 EVs over the country.
China
The overall number of new car registration dropped by 9% during 2020 in China. However, EVs sales grew up to 5.7% comparing with 4.8% in 2019. Subsidies aimed at EV market growth were due to expire by the end of 2020, but the government decided to cut them by 10% and extend them till 2022.
The United States
The overall US car market dropped by 23% in 2020, but the electric one felt stronger. In 2020, 295,000 new EVs were registered. Government stimulus decreased in 2020, as the federal tax credits for Tesla and General Motors reached the limit.
Consumer spending vs government spending

Governments across the world spent USD 14 billion on EVs market stimulus during 2020. This is 25% higher than in the previous year, but the overall tendency declines as the total amount of spending dropped by 10% from 2015.
Consumers, on the contrary, spent USD 14 billion, which is 50% more than they did in 2019. These facts describe the global tendency of rising interest from consumers and a great potential for the EVs market in the future.
Tesla, GM, Ford stocks analyses

Tesla
Tesla became profitable in 2020, for the first time since it was founded. Earnings are forecast to grow by 32% per year. Short and long-term liabilities can be covered by short-term assets. Fundamentally Tesla seems to be a strong company, but the giant P/E ratio makes investors feel scared about the future of the stock price. On the daily chart, the descending triangle has occurred. Moreover, the price “retested” this triangle from the top twice, which means the pattern is strong enough. The closest resistance is $700, which is a strong psychological level. If the price breaks this level, it will fly up to $770 shortly.
GM
General Motors’s earnings grew by 90,6% over the past year. Moreover, earnings are expected to grow by 8.15% per year in the future. GM’s current net profit margins (7.3%) are higher than last year (3.5%).
It looks like GM stock price follows the S&P500 movement since the market crash in March 2020. After the price dropped on Monday, July 19, it shows decent growth. If it breaks the resistance at $58, which is the cross point of 50 and 100-day moving averages, it will have a chance to renew the historical maximum, overwise, it will go down at least to the 200-day moving average at the price range between $51 and $52.
Ford
Company’s earnings are expected to grow 17.3% yearly. Ford stock looks to be undervalued based on the predictions of future cash flows. It has a good PE ratio (13.9x) compared to the US Auto industry average (23.9x), which makes Ford an attractive company for investors.
As well as GM’s, Ford’s price will try to break through the 50-day moving average. In the positive scenario, the price will have a chance to fly up to $16 resistance. On the flip side, it will try to break the 100-day moving average again and go down to the $11.5 price level if it does.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32053/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: Electric vehicles: infinite potential. FBS nalytic news

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What will happen?
The European Central Bank will present the monetary policy statement on June 22. It is the primary tool the ECB uses to communicate with investors about its monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the bank’s decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced it. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions. The ECB usually changes the statement slightly at each release. These changes affect the strength of the European currency.
Technical analyses
EUR/USD has formed the descending channel with divergences on RSI and MACD oscillators. This fact gives us the signal that correction is about to happen. If the ECB is less dovish than expected, EUR/USD will break the upper line of the channel and head towards the 100-period moving average, which is approximately 1.183. The next target, in this case, will be 1.188.
On the flip side, the downtrend will continue if traders get another confirmation that the ECB will do more monetary stimulus than the Fed. The price might drop to the support line at 1.175 and even lower at the bottom line of the channel at approximately 1.173.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32068/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (22.07.2021) How will ECB drive EUR? FBS analytic news.

What happened?

Brent returned to the rising channel on Wednesday by gaining 4% during the trading session. Investors are still looking towards risk assets despite data showing an unexpected rise in US oil inventories.
The fall was caused by the deal between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC. The organization decided to raise supply by 400,000 barrels a day from August to December 2021. Investors were also scared about the new COVID Delta strain.
Oil price keeps growing, despite the fact that the US crude stockpiles went up for the first time since May. Investors are positive about the future as they are sure that the demand will exceed supply during 2021.
At the moment, the price is trying to break $73.3 resistance. It is an intersection of 100 and 200 period moving averages, also it is 23.6 Fibonacci level. On the RSI oscillator, the downtrend has been broken, which means bulls still have enough power to push Brent higher.
In the short term: If the price breaks $73.3 resistance, it will shortly reach the 74-74.5$ range. Otherwise, it might test the 50-period moving average at the level of 72.3 before the upcoming raise.
In the long-term: As the price breaks the $73.3 resistance level, it will head towards the top line of the rising channel with a target range between $77.3-$77.7.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32093/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (23.07.2021) Brent: future is stil sunny. FBS analytic news.

What will happen?

FOMC statement will be announced at 21:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, July 27. In the previous article, we have already mentioned the importance of this event. Analysts and traders will closely follow this meeting since the Federal Reserve statement about interest rates might make a huge effect on markets.
The must-watch comment is the one on tapering. This is what will determine whether gold rallies or sells off after the Fed meeting. And with growing concerns that the US economy will slow in the second half of the year, tapering might no longer be as urgent as it seemed just a few weeks ago.
If the Federal Reserve gives any kind of signals about stimulus tapering, it will put a negative effect on gold. On the contrary, if there are no sings of tapering, gold will get a boost.
Technical analyses

The price is consolidating under the 200-period moving average. RSI oscillator got close to the buying zone. MACD shows that the bearish trend got weaker since June.
Dovish FOMC statement could help gold to break the 200-period moving average, which is highly important resistance. After the break, the price will have lots of space above. Targets will be $1830 and $1877, which are 38.2 and 50.0 Fibonacci levels respectively.
On the flip side, if FOMC gives signals about stimulus tapering, the price will drop and test 23.6 and 0.0 Fibonacci levels, which are $1772 and $1680 respectively. https://fbs.com/img/articles/32139/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (27.07.2021) Gold: FOMC meeting will clarify the future. Fbs analytic news.

USD/JPY declined further during yesterday’s trading, reaching as low as 109.36, while our short signal from 110.20 is still active and is giving us over 80 pips. Technical indicators are still suggesting further declines ahead. However, another dead cat bounce could be seen at the final session of the week, which is also the last session in July. Therefore, it is wise to take our profit and/or close some of the positions and move the Stop Loss lower by 35 pips, this is only if you decide to hold the trade until next week. Otherwise, +80 pips on one single trade aren’t bad. I’m trying not to be greedy.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32196/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (30.07.2021) USD/JPY Take your profits. FBS analytoc news.

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the current policy unchanged as widely expected. However, and against all odds, the bank took the first steps toward winding back emergency monetary stimulus for an economy that’s exceeded forecasts. The BRA made this move even though many saw the bank hinting for a possible increase in asset purchases amid partial lockdown in parts of the county due to the high rate of covid19 cases. Yet, the plan to taper by 1B in September could be a message that the RBA is seeing some inflation pressure on the horizon. In the meantime, AUD/USD is still in a retracement mode, which may target 0.7470 and 0.7530’s before the downside trend resumes. Therefore, I would long some AUD/USD around here 0.7380’s with a stop at today’s low only.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32238/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (03.08.2021) RBA sticks to tapering plan. FBS analytic news.

GBP/USD is currently trading within a new selling zone on both short and medium-term charts. The zone stands between 1.3915 and 1.3990 which represents its 50% and 61.8% of the recent selloff from June 1st top to July 20th bottom. This area remains solid since last week, while we wait for the Bank of England's decision later today. Yet, it would still be worth it to risk a short position with a stop above 1.4020, especially after the pair failed to break above its 100 and 50-day MA’s yesterday, while the technical indicators remain around the 50 mid-point (RSI). On the downside view, the first initial target would be 1.38 which could be seen later today, especially if the BoE decides to avoid tapering discussions.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32275/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (05.08.2021) GBP/USD Selling Zone! FBS analytic zone.

What is happening?

The Senate of the US has voted for an amendment to President Biden’s infrastructure bill. The Senate allows for 30 hours of debate following a vote. This means that the amendment can be debated up until Tuesday morning, after which it would be signed into law.
Senate deliberations continued over the weekend over a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, with a particular focus on how the bill could impact the world of cryptocurrency. The bill includes a tax provision that outlines plans to raise about $28 billion for that $1 trillion package through taxes from crypto transactions. The bill identifies a “broker” as anyone “responsible for and regularly providing any service effectuating transfers of digital assets on behalf of another person,” and anyone thus identified would be subject to tax reporting requirements.
Cryptocurrency investors are unhappy with the new tax provision. Not only it defines miners and cryptocurrency wallet makers as brokers, but it also obliges companies to report information about individuals even if they are not customers. Passing the bill will have a bloody impact on the cryptocurrency market, as well as on all companies somehow connected to it.
More on Coinbase

Coinbase now supports Apple Pay when buying cryptocurrency, meaning that users can buy with debit cards that are linked to Apple's system. Coinbase is the first crypto exchange to offer instant transactions via Real-Time Payments (RTP), enabling customers in the U.S. with linked bank accounts to instantly and securely cash out up to $100,000 per transaction.
It is important to notice that Coinbase makes the most of its profit in the most volatile markets, due to increased trading volumes and therefore increased amount of fees collected. Nevertheless, Coinbase stock correlation with Bitcoin price is hard to underestimate. Such an effect is caused by the nature of Coinbase as a cryptocurrency exchange and the majority opinion that everything somehow linked to crypto needs to correlate with Bitcoin price movements.
Technical analysis

Right now, Coinbase is breaking through resistance lines, after forming a “triple bottom” reversal pattern. RSI is also looking quite bullish. If the news about the infrastructure bill won’t crash the price, the next resistance line will be at $300, a round number, and a Fibonacci expansion 161.8 line. Otherwise, there is a big support area between $250 and $235.Bitcoin is moving in a channel, that has been already broken once. RSI has formed a bearish divergence, so it’s dangerous to open a long position now. In case of a price falling, the main support area is $40000-$39000.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32327/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (09.08.2021) How does new infraestructure bill affect coinbase? FBS analytic news.

Current news:

1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely deliver up to two interest rate hikes before the end of the year.
2. Risk-off flows strengthening in the NZD/USD pair.
3. Chinese economic outlook downgrade, inflation causing concern.

The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar weakened overnight as global concerns over the highly transmissible Delta Covid variant weighed on sentiment. The US Dollar is also weighing on NZD as rate hike bets rise following last week’s NFP report. Moreover, Goldman Sachs downgraded its growth forecast for China. Analysts at the bank see Covid-induced lockdowns and social distancing measures dragging on spending and consumption.
Why is it important?

Foreign exchange markets are presently focused on central bank interest rate normalization, favoring the currencies belonging to those central banks which will lead the pack. July 14, 2021, RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) said it will reduce monetary stimulus by ceasing quantitative easing. It was the first sign of a future interest-rate increase. Shortly after, New Zealand’s unemployment rate was released, with actual results being less-than-expected by as much as 0.4% (4% vs. 4.4%, this is a good sign to an overall economic situation).
The labor market report is the latest sign that the economy is growing faster than its capacity, and that the Reserve Bank could start to raise the official cash rate to keep a lid on price pressures. Annual inflation surged to 3.3% in the second quarter, breaching the central bank’s 1-3% target range.
If RBNZ continues normalizing interest rates by raising them, we would expect strong fundamental support for the New Zealand Dollar. August 18, RBNZ will release several essential market reports. Among them are the Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, and Rate Statement. Considering the facts given, we’re expecting rate hikes as well as NZD strengthening against other currencies.
However, while the Chinese economy is vital to global growth and capital markets, New Zealand is particularly susceptible due to its economic and trade proximity. Covid related risks are also present, although the market participants ignored Delta's initial spread. Make sure to check our Economic Calendar regularly!
Technical analysis:

Looking at the NZD/USD live chart we can see a support line at 0.690 and we have a resistance between 0.705 and 0.710, where the “death cross” bearish pattern has emerged.Considering the newfound pessimism for the economic outlook in China, the New Zealand Dollar may remain capped near current levels. Still, NZD bulls may be able to take advantage of the situation. The Australian Dollar typically displays a higher correlation with China’s economy, which can open the door for AUD/NZD to underperform.Currently, AUD/NZD pair has a support line at 1.04594 and resistance at 1.10595, right at 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32355/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (10.08.2021) NZD is expiriencing challenges with forecast. FBS analytic news.

EURUSD declined slightly at the beginning of yesterday’s trading, reaching as low as 1.1705 right before the US data. The pair then bounced off that support all the way to 1.1750’s, leading our long position to be in profit once again. In the meantime, we maintain the stop at 1.1690 ahead of today’s session. The current signal comes as a short-term play after the Euro declined for 8 straight sessions. At the same time, if the pair managed to break above 1.1750 today, I would move my stop to the entry in order to protect the position from any possible loss.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32394/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (12.08.2021) EURUSD Trade update. FBS analytic news.

Gold managed to recover over 50% of its flash crash that occurred at the beginning of this week. After stabilizing above 1725, we issued a long signal at 1730 two days ago, and gold managed to rise all the way to 1759 until this report is released. In the meantime, it would be wise to move the stop to our entry to protect our position from any possible loss, while a weekly close above 1750 and preferably above 1760 would be another bullish sign not only on the short-term but on the medium-term as well.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32408/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (13.08.2021) Gold Trying to break higher. FBS analytic news.

The US Dollar soared higher since the beginning of the Asian session until this report is released. Such rally comes as a reason of the Asian and the European markets to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which showed that the Fed is somehow preparing the markets for QE tapering before the end of this year, which could actually happen in December's meeting.
However, the Fed also stressed that they are still watching Covid19-Delta developments in the US, as infection rate is still increasing, and if things for even worse, the fed might delay such decision. Yet, the market is not concerned about delta yet, they are now concerned about lower liquidity by the Fed and other central banks, and therefore we are seeing a broad selloff across the board.
In the meantime, I would stand aside and watch how the US market will react today, as the current move might be a bit excessive, as the info that we got from the meeting minutes is not something new. But such move, could be a new opportunity for those who likes swing trades.
As for today, I will be watching 93.50 resistance area as it won't be easy to be broken. Another downside retracement is highly possible, which may retest the 93.0 support area, before the upside trend resumes.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32507/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (19.08.2021) USD Skyrocketing. FBS analytic news.

Throughout last week’s trading, gold traded within a tight range, but it also managed to hold well above its 1775 support area until the end of the week, while the technical indicators has improved over the past few days, including the RSI indicator, which is now trading above the 50 mid-point and broke its daily down trendline, which support our medium-term long positions, the one issued few weeks ago at 1730. With that being said, it would be wise to move our stop loss for this week to 1765 USD/Oz to protect some of the profit, while further stabilization above 1775 may clear the way for another test of 1800 USD/Oz in the coming days.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32553/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (23.08.2021) Gold holding well above 1775. FBS analytic news.

The US Dollar Index failed to sustain its recent gains above its 50 DAY MA, the index declined back yesterday with higher trading volume, while all eyes are on the PPI data today after mixed economic releases over the past few days and last week's jobs report. In the meantime, the technical indicators are still suggesting further declines ahead, with a possibility to retest last week's lows round 91.80, while any short position should be attached with a stop loss not to exceed this week's high.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32809/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (10.09.2021) USD downside retracement resumes. FBS analytic news.

Usually, the gold price is driven by political and economic uncertainty, like economic crises, election pressure, pandemic effects. But in the face of a year-and-a-half-lasting monetary stimulus program, the price of the haven asset acts differently. What drives gold price and how to trade it – in this article.
Latest news:

• Gold breaks beneath $1800 with $1700 as a reachable target.
• US 10-year Treasury yields rise, emphasizing the demand for the US dollar.
• Fed plans to start bond tapering this year.
• US inflation rate has already hit 5.4% in June and July 2021.

Retrospective gold movement analysis

Fundamental analysis of gold should start with an explanation of gold nature. In the past, there was the Gold Standard. It was a system under which nearly all countries fixed the value of their currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold or linked their currency to that of a country that did so. Also, the supply of gold hasn’t been increasing greatly with time. Thus, when the amount of money was increasing (inflation rises), to buy the same amount of gold we needed an increased amount of currency. Since the economic crises usually come with high inflation, gold has become the haven asset for every country.
But nothing lasts forever, and in August 1971, US President Nixon severed direct convertibility of US dollars into gold. From this very moment, gold has become a more independent asset, but the rules of the game didn’t change much. Demand for gold is still high due to several factors: gold is resistant to corrosion, easy to process, hard to imitate, and looks beautiful (the last factor is subjective).
From this point we have several considerations about gold price movements, let’s go through them:

1. US treasury yield rises USD demand rises USD rises.
2. When USD is rising, gold (XAU) is plunging (this has come from times of the Gold Standard and remained even after it).
3. Gold supply isn’t increasing as fast as demand, thus, in the long-term gold will continue to rise.

What is affecting the price now?

Let’s go through several economic events and check whether they are affecting XAU price or not:

• March 31, 2021: US ADP NFP data is worse than expected (517K vs. 552K; positive for gold, negative for currency). Gold has been skyrocketing for the next 6 hours and has gained 2%.
• June 16, 2021: Federal funds rate remained at the same level (0.25%), which is positive for the currency. Also, there were intentions for rate hikes in the future. Gold has plunged 3% in 3 hours.
• August 6, 2021: positive US NFP data (943K actual vs. 870K expected). Gold has “flash crashed” by 6.2% in less than half a day.
• August 12, 2021: US PPI is higher than expected, which is positive for currency and negative for gold. XAU has fallen by 0.5% and surged 0.75% later that day.
• September 1, 2021: OPEC+ reconsider oil output increase by 400 000 barrels per day. Negative ADP NFP data (330K actual vs. 695K expected). Gold price has remained the same.
• September 3, 2021: US NFP three times worse than expected (235K vs. 720K). XAU has risen 1.15% in the next 3 hours, but in the next 3 days, gold had fallen more than 2%.

To sum up, this data, even if the events and the results are the same (March 31 and September 1), gold can act in a completely different manner. Besides that, we can expect gold to rise when any data is bad for USD and vice versa. This can be proven by looking at XAU/USD and US dollar index charts, or by looking at correlation charts.
What to expect from gold?

So far (September 13, 2021) the economic recovery is not as fast as everyone wants and while tapering has been postponed, again and again, the demand for the US dollar is present and gold is not in a good shape. You might think: “Wait, if the economy is in a bad shape, then it’s good for gold, isn’t it?” Yes, usually in times of uncertainty gold is showing better results than other assets, like stocks and currencies. But this doesn’t mean that gold doesn’t fall at all.
From the side of technical analysis, gold is looking bearish too.
XAU/USD weekly chart
Support: 1750.0; 1685.0
Resistance: 1840.0; 1900.0
Gold is a perfect instrument to keep your money safe because it tends to maintain its purchasing power and save you from the volatility of other assets, but as global markets tend to rise on a bigger time scale, gold won’t earn you a lot.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32828/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (13.09.2021) Gold is acting randomly? FBS Analytic news

About Conflux

Conflux is an open blockchain network with an economic incentive-based governance mechanism designed to reward community members who contribute to ensuring a safe, stable, and predictable environment for economic activity. Conflux is focused on developing decentralized applications (dApps), creating smart contracts, and making simple payments. In simple words, Conflux is an exact copy of all known Ethereum, but more scalable and flexible.
Conflux history

Conflux is headquartered in Beijing, China. The Financial office was registered in Singapore in 2018.
Developers raised initial funds by selling the part of 1 billion CFX tokens issued on the Ethereum blockchain. After the launch of the main Conflux network, the developers generated 5 billion CFX tokens (most of them are still frozen) and launched the mechanism of additional emission of CFX coins (internal tokens of the Conflux network) available to earn by miners and stakers.
CFX is the main fuel of the Conflux platform and is used as a tool to interact with solutions in the Conflux Network ecosystem. Major CFX holders include venture giants such as Sequoia China, Huobi Group, Shunwei, and Rong 360.
Token holders receive a reward for their storage depending on the staking time.
Conflux features

The Conflux network has many advantages.

• The throughput is 4000 transactions per second (for comparison, Ethereum has 15).
• Proof of work algorithm, which means the cryptocurrency is available for mining on video cards.
• Unlike many other blockchains (for example, Bitcoin, Ethereum), in which blocks are generated sequentially, one after another, in the Conflux blockchain network, parallel construction of a blockchain and transactions is possible.
• Ethereum virtual machine support, so smart contracts can be ported from Ethereum to Conflux Network.
• Block generation time - 2 blocks per second (172, 800 blocks per day).
• Annual inflation is at 8.83%.

Conclusion

The main goal of the Conflux blockchain network is the development of digital technologies. Creators used Bitcoin and Ethereum’s developments as well as other innovative technologies to create a high-quality cryptosystem.
Despite this, Conflux is a young project, comparing with such giants as Litecoin, Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum, which already recommended themselves as a reliable cryptosystem. That’s why we suppose the risk of trading CFX remains on a high level and suggest trading more sustainable coins such as XRP, ETH, BTC, and LTC.

USD/ZAR is mainly driven by the US dollar, that’s why the US economic data is highly impactful. The US has published strong retail sales for August. It pleasantly surprised investors as they were concerned that consumers would limit their purchases amid the spread of the Delta virus strain. However, retail sales posted a gain!
In comparison, South Africa's July retail sales (the freshest data so far) revealed a significant -11.2% year-on-year, versus market expectations for -2.7%. Such a huge drop was caused by the jailing of former president Jacob Zuma, which lead to the escalation of civil unrest.
Technical outlook

USD/ZAR has been rising at a quite fast pace for the last three days. It has even broken through all three moving averages: 50-, 100-, and 200-day. The growth has been too quick though, we might expect a retracement (correction) to the support level of 14.50. However, the rally may continue till the price reaches the highs of early August at 14.80. The breakout above this resistance level will lead the pair to the psychological mark of 15.00.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32891/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBSN (16.09.2021) Greatest sale of South African Rand. FBS Analytic news.

GBP/USD is moving inside the ascending channel. Since it’s in the lower part of this channel, the pair should reverse up and continue moving in zig-zag.
Short term

However, fundamental factors ruined that plans. The UK has published poor retail sales for August. Analysts forecasted the 0.5% growth, while the actual numbers showed a drop of 0.9%. Thus, the pair is moving back and forth near 1.3785 as technical and fundamental factors are opposite in the short term.
Long term

On Wednesday, the report revealed that the UK inflation reached a 9 year high in August, so the Bank of England can start taking actions earlier than the markets expect. The bank may start discussing the tightening: hint at hiking rates or cutting bond buys. If it happens, the GBP will surge.
Tech outlook

The long lower tails signal us that bears were trying to push the price lower, but by the end of the sessions more bulls appeared, and they pushed the price higher. In other words, lower prices were rejected, so the price moved up. That’s why the price is likely to go up in the next session as well.
Thus, we might assume if the pair manages to close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3810, it may jump to the next round number of 1.3825 near the 38.2% Fibo level. Support levels are the recent lows of 1.3780 and 1.3750.
https://fbs.com/img/articles/32903/1...1200_q90v3.png
Reference: FBS (17.09.2021) GBP/USD Is ready for reverse up. FBS analytic news.

What happened?

It’s unbelievable but China’s government prohibited all transactions with cryptocurrencies (yes, even Bitcoin) and promised to stop illegal crypto mining. While the rest of the world is taking steps to include crypto into the economy, China denies it.
What does China mean for crypto?

China is home to a huge part of the world’s crypto miners. As we know, mining requires a lot of energy resources and it prevents China from curbing greenhouse-gas emissions. Bloomberg says 46% of the global hash rate (computing power used in mining) occurred in China in April.
What will be the circumstances?

It is a negative factor for the whole crypto market in the short term. Today, BTC/USD has dropped by 3168 points in one day. The downtrend is likely to stay with us for longer. So good that FBS traders can open both buy and sell trades. Besides, it can be also a negative factor for chip producers such as Nvidia and AMD as demand for GPUs is going to drop in China and press the prices of GPUs down.
Tech outlook

Bitcoin has dropped to the support level of $41,000, which lies at the 50-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci level. It makes this level a strong barrier, which the cryptocurrency will struggle to break on the first try. If it manages to cross, BTC/USD will plunge to the 61.8% Fibo level of $38,000. Resistance levels are $44,000 and $45,500 (the 200-day moving average).



https://fbs.com/img/articles/32982/1...1200_q90v3.png

Reference: FBS (24.09.2021) Crypto becomes illegal in China. FBS analytic news.

Like oil, natural gas is a product of decomposed organic matter, typically from ancient marine microorganisms, deposited over the past 550 million years. Often, gas and oil are neighbors, who are located deep under the ground. Because of that, their prices sometimes correlate. But for the last several weeks gas was skyrocketing at an enormous pace. It has gained more than 17% from August 18. What is the reason for such moves and how can we earn on global gas trading?
Latest news:

• Hurricane Ida shut down oil and gas production.
• OPEC+ meeting is expected to stall oil production increase.
• Natural gas prices have risen sharply over the past week, with futures hitting two-year highs due to rising inflation and continued production cuts.

What affects the gas price?

Assessment of the Natural Gas market should start with basic points. Usually, there are a set of reasons for the commodity price to change:

• The law of supply and demand regulates prices, as it does in nearly all commodities.
• As a longer-term general trend, the supply of high-quality oil and gas is fixed while global demand is increasing with a rising population and economic growth.
• There is a growing consensus that the world is facing a structural shift, driven by the energy transition and companies’ desire to reduce their carbon footprint.

Let’s go through every reason to create a natural gas price forecast. As for now, demand isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. Between 2009 and 2020, global gas consumption surged by 30% as utilities and industries took advantage of booming output. Even in the covid-19 environment, experts are expecting the demand to rise even more in the next 10 years.




As for ecological reasons, companies and countries are implementing gas in their electrical supplies. The shift to natural gas can be done relatively quickly and cheaply while having a significant impact on lowering emissions. Natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel and emits almost 50% less CO2 than coal. Meanwhile, non-fossil-fuel alternatives such as wind and solar are at a relatively early stage to produce enough energy and offer a cheap deployment.
Gas’ bright future

Already, there are signs around the world that supplies will fall short:

• Beyond a massive expansion in Qatar, few new liquified natural gas (LNG) export projects have been started since 2020.
• Government is uncertain about emissions-reducing policies, thus, producers have been less willing to sign long-term supply deals.
• Key pipeline projects struggle to move forward, and drillers are under pressure from investors, that want to avoid a surplus of gas. Moreover, major producers of natural gas are having too much power in their hands. That gives them the opportunity to control prices remove weaker competitors.

Even if the prices will rise even higher over the next decade, it won’t be enough to drastically reduce demand for the fuel. All we can say for now is that gas is increasingly less dependent on oil prices and this trend is going to continue.
Technical analysis

As for the chart, US natural gas is several days away from volatility increase. For now, the price is consolidating in a triangle and the breakout will decide its fate. In case of further growth, it is highly likely for the RSI divergence to form. That would be a sign of a pullback.
XNG/USD H4 chart
Support: 5.60; 4.94; 4.20
Resistance: 6.30; 6.50; 7.00
To trade natural gas, we need a trading strategy. And to have one we need to better understand the asset. Here are some tips for traders that will surely help you.

• Look through short-term energy outlook articles on our site to be in touch with the latest trends.
• To calculate your risks, it’s wise to check contract specifications for energy futures.
• Analyze related assets, like Brent and Crude oil. The price tends to correlate between them.
• Use technical analysis and define the support and resistance levels for the price.

If to perform trade analysis via technical indicators, the best for gas right now is RSI, because it can show you the divergences between the indicator and the price and spot possible reversal earlier, than others.
No growth is everlasting, and though the gas price has been skyrocketing for the last weeks, most of the time it lacks the volatility. So when this “Gas season” will be over, consider looking at the cryptocurrency, because it’s much more volatile. Also, 24\7 crypto trading means that you don’t need to wait for the market opening, just open your FBS Trading Platform or Meta Trader and enjoy the possibilities of a crypto trading account.
Now you know how to trade natural gas, so what are you waiting for?
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Reference: FBS (05.10.2021) Gas lights up. FBS analytic news.

What affects oil price?

Oil is one of the most important assets, which presents the whole economic situation in the world. Just like the prices of most assets, oil price depends on the demand-to-supply ratio. During periods of economic growth, countries increase demand which leads to price gains. On the contrary, when the economy enters a regression phase demand drops and price follows it.
How to trade crude oil online?

There are two ways of trading crude oil online. You can trade contracts for difference (CFDs) or futures. While CFDs display the price in real-time, futures predict a future price change. Futures are the most volatile and risky instruments as they can be manipulated by traders with high capital. During March 2020 collapse Brent futures have been trading under the $0 level, while CDFs only reached $17. That is why we believe that trading contracts for difference is less risky.
You can trade oil and energies contracts for difference with FBS. Learn the contract's specifications and pick the best option for your trading strategy!
When is the best time to trade oil?

Oil price is influenced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, that is why the meetings and statements of this organization make a huge impact on an oil price movement. Their statements raise oil price volatility, but moreover, they define the future trend. That is why the best option for trading oil is to wait until one of this OPEC’s meetings or statements and follow the trend.
Another highly important data, which usually influences the price, is the US crude oil inventories data as the United States is the largest exporter of crude oil. Bigger reserves mean that the oil consumption stays under pressure, which is the first sign of upcoming economic stagnation. On the other hand, lower-than-expected reserves data points traders to the fact that the consumption grew in the past and the necessary replenishment is needed. In this case, additional purchases will stimulate oil price increase.

OPEC+ said it had “reconfirmed the production adjustment plan”, which referred to its previously agreed decision to add 400,000 barrels per day to the market for November. The recovery in global oil demand from the coronavirus pandemic has been quicker than many expected, while global supply has been disrupted by hurricane outages and low investment. As long as these two factors remain unchanged oil will gain constantly.
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Brent's price is moving in the rising channel. The bearish divergence occurred on the RSI chart, that is why expect a tiny correction to the $79.8 support level. After that, the price might reverse and head towards $86.3, where the 2018 high locates. To break this level buyers need to get some strong news, which will act as a buy signal. Without them, the price will get rejected from the $86.3 level and solid correction will happen.

Reference: FBS (06.10.2021) How to trade oil. FBS analytic news.

What is happening?

Just look at the charts above – the Canadian dollar has skyrocketed! Such strong growth has been caused by several reasons.
First, oil prices have gained from the global energy crunch. Crude oil has hit the highest level since 2014 as the demand is growing ahead of winter, while OPEC+ doesn’t rush to increase output significantly. Canada is one of the world’s largest oil producers and its currency has historically positively correlated with oil prices.
Second, Canadian employment figures came out better than analysts forecasted on Friday. It can signal another taper from the Bank of Canada later this month, which may push the CAD up. Just to remind you, the BOC was the first bank that tightened the policy after the Covid-19 crisis. Thus, it’s quite reasonable for the bank to continue tapering after a strong job report. Meanwhile, the US has revealed the worse-than-expected NFP numbers. Canadian Dollar strength and US Dollar weakness pressed USD/CAD to its lowest level since July.



Tech outlook

USD/CAD has broken through all the moving averages and the support line while moving down. It has stopped ahead of the support level of 1.2445 – the July lows which the pair has failed to cross and reversed up. Let’s wait for a breakout. If it occurs, the pair is likely to drop to the psychological level of 1.2400. However, before the breakout happens, we might see a pullback to the 200-day moving average of 1.2500.
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Reference: FBS (11.10.2021) All is good for canadian Dollar. FBS analytic news.

The stocks of the vaccine producers have gained a lot during 2021 due to the wide vaccination campaign around the world. Still, the Covid-19 pandemic is still not over as the virus is mutating and the scientists need to create new and new vaccines. What does it mean for traders? A great opportunity to invest in pharma stocks especially the ones engaged in the production of vaccines.
Moderna

Moderna has joined the S&P 500 index this year. It skyrocketed to almost $500 – the all-time high on this news, but then dropped back to $300 amid the broad market correction. Moderna has recently submitted its COVID-19 booster shots for adults to the FDA. If officials approve it, the stock price of Moderna will rocket! The first resistance level lies at the round number of $350.00. If the stock manages to cross it, the stock may jump above the 50-day moving average at $400.00. Support levels are $295.00 and $250.00.
AstraZeneca

Many hedge funds have added AstraZeneca into their portfolios. Among them are Fisher Asset Management, GQG Partners, and other heavyweights. Apart from producing vaccines against Covid-19, the company produces other medicines and also working on an advanced breast cancer treatment. The key level of $8750 acts now as support, while it was acting like resistance during August. Thus, we might expect the price to retrace to this level and then reverse up to $9000. When AstraZeneca breaks above this level, it will rally up to $9250
Johnson & Johnson

JNJ sells pharmaceuticals, consumer health products, and many well-known consumer goods (Johnson's Baby products, Acuvue contact lenses, etc). Apart from that, it’s a vaccine maker and quite a successful one! The FDA claimed that the second dose of the JNJ Covid -19 vaccine is effective two months after the first. As a result, the JNJ stock skyrocketed.
The stock of JNJ has failed to cross the psychological level of $160.00. If it manages to break it and the high of October 7 at $162.00, we might expect the downtrend to change to an uptrend. So far, the stock price is moving in the descending channel. Still, if we look at the weekly or monthly chart, we’ll see that it’s just a correction in the long-term uptrend. Thus, wait for the confirmation of the change of a trend.
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Reference: FBS (15.10.2021) Top Pharma stocks to buy now

Netflix

Netflix published better-than-expected earnings results for the third quarter and also surprised investors with the huge subscriber growth due to the popular "Squid Game". Netflix added 4.38 million subscribers, while Wall Street analysts forecasted 3.86 million. Wow! However, the market reaction was mixed. Yesterday's session finished in a goalless draw: nor bears neither bulls took control. The candlestick closed with no shadow, which means the opening and closing prices were equal.
Why did Netflix drop on good results?
In short, ‘buy the rumor – sell the fact’. All investors knew that the “Squid Game” has astonishing popularity, that’s why they were expecting good results from the company and priced in the good outcome well ahead of the release. When the actual number was known, the stock fell.
On the daily chart, we can notice the bearish divergence, which means the stock price can fall in the short term. It may correct down to the 50-period moving average of $610, which should support the stock from falling further (it has done that several times before). Still, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Tesla

Tesla has reported better-than-expected earnings results for the third quarter. EPS: $1.86 vs the forecast of $1.52. Notably, the report marked the 9th quarter of profit in a row. Earlier, Tesla announced it delivered 241,300 electric vehicles globally in the third quarter, which was Tesla’s record number for quarterly deliveries.
The Tesla stock tends to rally (look at the long green candles at the chart below) ahead of the earnings releases but then drops when the actual numbers are known. Thus, today, the stock can fall in the short term. However, it is going to gain from such good results in the long term as it showed investors that it is doing its business great.
Tesla was rallying so rapidly as it even broke the upper line of the channel. Now it’s just below the resistance level of $880.00. If it manages to break it, it can rocket to the psychological mark of $900.00.
JNJ

The pharma giant Johnson & Johnson published earnings that beat analyst expectations, sending its price soaring (look at the long green candle in the chart). The Covid-19 remains the main threat, that’s why JNJ is likely to gain in the 4th quarter due to its vaccine. Besides, the Food and Drug Administration authorized Covid-19 vaccine booster shots made by Johnson & Johnson, which is really great for Johnson & Johnson.
The stock price of JNJ has failed to cross the resistance zone of $165.00-166.00 (the 200-day MA and the 38.2% Fibo level). If it manages to cross it, the way up to the 50- and 100-day MAs at $168.00 will be open. Support levels are $163.00 (the 23.6% Fibo level) and $160.00.
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Reference: FBS (21.10.2021) Earning overview. Tesla, Netflix, IBMS. JNJ.

What will happen?
Brent's price fell after a less than expected oil crude inventories report. Usually, the less expected report pushes the price higher, but this time everything went the opposite way.
It might be the signal of investors’ growing concerns about the OPEC+ upcoming conference, where oil global supply might be increased. Earlier, the CEO of Saudi Aramco called for a supply increase, since global oil inventories decrease too fast. From his point of view, if OPEC+ will not change its policy, it might lead to the continuation of the global energy crisis. In this case, XBR/USD will explode and reach $100 shortly.
}On the 4H chart, Brent fell under the 100-period moving average. At the moment it is consolidating between $81.7 and $83.3. Locally, it looks oversold according to the RSI, that’s why we can see a pullback up to $84.2 first. The main resistance will be the 50-period moving average, which has been holding the price since the middle of September 2021. If XBR/USD breaks through this resistance, it might rise as high as $85,6 again. Otherwise, if it gets rejected, it will be another proof of a downtrend beginning. The main targets for the down movement are $81.7 and $79.5.
the situation which happens in 2018 repeats. The price drew 3 highs with the RSI divergence just as it did in the previous time. Later, after that pattern appeared, the price has been falling for 7 weeks straight. OPEC+ conference on August 4 will answer the question: “can technical analysis predict the future?”
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Reference: FBS (28.10.2021) Brent: OPEC+ Might Intervene. FBS Analitycs