Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 2, 2020

EUR/USD The euro rose by 26 points yesterday, a stronger movement was prevented from developing the signal level of 1.1754, created by the lows of August 21 and September 9. The Marlin oscillator is showing the first signs of a reversal. Perhaps with the release of US employment data, this reversal will intensify. The US unemployment rate for September is expected to fall from 8.4% to 8.2%. The first target for the euro is 1.1650, then 1.1550.



The price formed a divergence with the oscillator on the four-hour chart. In order to confidently decline, The price needs to settle below the MACD line below 1.1688. We are waiting for the development of events.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for October 5, 2020



Crypto Industry News:
Estonian central bank - Eesti Pank - has announced the launch of a research program to test how to build a digital currency infrastructure.

According to the statement, Eesti Pank will collaborate on the research project with technology companies SW7 Group and Guardtime. The initiative aims to test whether a blockchain-based keyless signature (KSI) solution can help create virtual currency.

It is worth adding that Estonia is already using blockchain and KSI technology in its e-government services. The bank's project will also address new payment solutions "that may be possible through the use of electronic identifiers and other Estonian e-government solutions."

The project will consist of several phases and will last approximately two years. The first phase will be to create a scalable, practical and secure platform that meets the requirements of CBDC. At the same time, it was emphasized that the platform is to operate quickly, securely and ensure privacy.

Rainer Olt, head of the bank's Payment Systems Department, said:

"As a small central bank, Eesti Pank carefully selects the development projects of the Eurozone central banks to which we can make a significant contribution. Over the years, Estonia has developed unique know-how in maintaining a secure, private and efficient eGovernment. Estonia's unique wealth of experience is a good impetus to launch the project with technology companies SW7 and Guardtime to explore [new] technological opportunities. "

The bank emphasized that it is constantly striving to develop its financial environment and payment system in order to keep up with the times and respond to the needs of citizens.

Technical Market Outlook:
The BTC/USD pair has been slowly moving up towards the level of $10,679, which is the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. There is a change for the market to continue to move higher if the level of $10, 697 is clearly violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $10,890, which is the last swing high. On the other hand, the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $10,586 and $10,547.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $11,471
WR2 - $11,178
WR1 - $10,858
Weekly Pivot - $10,602
WS1 - $10,300
WS2 - $10,024
WS3 - $9,715

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.


Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

The Central European Bank supports the growth of the Euro

After forming a small accumulation zone, the Euro continued to grow rapidly against the US Dollar and other currencies. This makes it possible to hold a long position. Any downward movement of the pair will allow you to re-enter purchases at more favorable prices. The nearest target for the current growth phase is 1.1830. The probability of reaching this mark is at 75%. When the goal is reached, you must fully or partially exit the position. This will allow you to record purchases at a favorable price.



Areas of the Central Bank where liquidity increase is likely to be used to fix transactions. The probability of continuing growth after the next test of the zone without correction is below 30%, so we should expect the formation of a downward model in the second half of this week. This movement will be corrective, so sales can only be considered as a short-term investment with a quick fix within the average daily course.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for October 7, 2020



Crypto Industry News:
According to a recent SEC disclosure by the Greyscale Ethereum Trust, or ETHE, Ethereum's impending shift to proof-of-stake consensus is a risk that could have a "material adverse effect" on its stock.

ETHE has recently applied to the regulator to become a SEC reporting company. Such companies are required to discuss risk factors that may adversely affect their results in all quarterly and annual reports.

In one section, which aims to outline the potential threats to the fund's future, it was noted that upgrading to ETH 2.0 may cause some difficulties for investors:

"The digital asset network's consensus mechanism is an essential aspect of its source code, and any failure to properly implement such a change could have a significant negative impact on the ETH value."

The report mentions that the inability to properly implement these changes may result in a temporary or permanent bifurcation which could have a negative impact on ETHE's stock.

It seems that the upcoming modernization so far does not diminish investors' interest in the fund. On the contrary, the assets of the Trust it manages have grown exponentially over the past year, from $ 67 million to over $ 800 million at the time of publication.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD pair had failed to break through the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down and suddenly reversed all the previous gains. The local trend line support had been violated as well and the pair made a new local low seen at the level of $332.46. There was some Pin Bar candlestick made at the end of the move down, so a small bounce is possible up to the level of $345.20. If this local technical resistance is not clearly broken, then the down move should resume and head towards the next target seen at the level of $322.87 - $321.95.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $403.75
WR2 - $387.38
WR1 - $368.10
Weekly Pivot - $351.05
WS1 - $333.15
WS2 - $315.51
WS3 - $296.13

Trading Recommendations:
The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 8, 2020

USD/JPY
The Japanese yen was able to overcome the resistance of two indicator lines at once - balance and MACD, and today it continues to rise above them. The Marlin oscillator continues to grow in the zone of positive values, the nearest target at 106.34 is open, we are waiting for the moment we overcome this resistance - the embedded price channel line, and for the price to rise to the 106.96 level - to the high of August 28.



The price continues to steadily grow above the indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is rising in the zone where bulls are in control. We are waiting for the USD/JPY pair to grow further. Today's report on the balance of payments for the month of August, which showed growth from 0.96 trillion yen to 1.65 trillion yen, provides optimism for Japanese investors.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for October 9, 2020




Technical Market Outlook:
Despite the recent bounce from the upper channel line seen at the level of 1.2848, the GBP/USD pair keeps trading below the key technical resistance located at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017. The bounce indicated some bullish pressure at this level and the upper channel line is being guarded strongly, but after some time we can see the momentum decreased and the Pound is trading horizontally. However, if the price will enter the old main channel zone, then the sell-off might accelerate, so the key technical support is again seen at the level of 1.2848. The next target for bulls after the bounce is seen at the level of 1.2979.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3265
WR2 - 1.3116
WR1 - 1.3034
Weekly Pivot - 1.2892
WS1 - 1.2811
WS2 - 1.2658
WS3 - 1.2571

Trading Recommendations:
On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 12, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro pulled away from the 1.1754 level last Friday and went beyond the resistance of the balance indicator line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator has entered the positive zone, indicating the prospect of price growth. The growth target is the MACD line at the 1.1910 level, which coincides with the high on July 31 (blue mark).



The price settled above the signal level of 1.1810 on the four-hour chart, and even today's gap could not outwit this support. Marlin rises in the bullish zone. But the price forms a double or even, albeit not quite clear, triple divergence with the oscillator. And here, after slightly struggling above the signal level, a downward reversal is possible.



Forming the final downward trend in the medium-term trend will progress if the price settles below the target level of 1.1754. It is possible that by the time the price attacks this level, the MACD line will also approach it.

The euro's growth looks strong on the daily chart, we will determine the probability of rising to 1.1910 at 60%, but the market can easily take advantage of the remaining 40% of the reversal scenario. The first condition for further growth is when the price settles above the Friday high. We are waiting for the development of events.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

AUD/USD forecast for October 13, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar did not close the gap at the opening of the week, so the current decline of 65 points from Friday's close may only be a correction from the growth of the previous days. According to Monday's review, the possible growth will also have the character of a correction from the movement starting September 1 and may end before reaching any of the target levels even at the nearest 0.7270.



The Marlin oscillator went into a downward trend zone. Formally, this means that the price is moving towards the first target level of 0.7055, but let's look at the situation on a smaller chart.



On the H4 chart, there is currently no price fixing under the level of 0.7190. The next candle should open under this level to achieve this. Also, the price remains above the Kruzenshtern indicator line at 0.7143 and even above the balance indicator line, i.e. the observed decline occurs within the growing short-term trend. Only the Marlin oscillator reminds the price that it is time to finish with growth but is still weak.

So, for the development of a downward scenario in the short term up to two weeks, the price should be fixed under the Kruzenshtern line below 0.7143. In the case of a medium-term decline in the AUD/USD currency pair, the impact of the gap (especially insignificant) can be ignored, sometimes they are closed only after a few years.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 14, 2020

EUR/USD
The S&P 500 lost 0.63% on Tuesday, on the news that Johnson & Johnson's anti-skin vaccine trial was suspended due to severe side effects, and so the euro fell by 66 points. This, as we see it, stopped the speculative growth over the euro that has been ongoing for the past two weeks. The price moved below the target level of 1.1754, having reversed from the resistance of the balance line on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is back in the negative territory. Now we are waiting for the price to drop to the target level of 1.1650, then to 1.1550 (November 2017 low).



The price settled under the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the negative zone. Conditions for a further decline have been formed, we are waiting for the price at the indicated levels.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.