Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for USD/JPY on July 13, 2021

USD/JPY
The yen remains the most difficult currency in the last month, its fluctuations occur with a periodic change of drivers - it is the stock market, then the fluctuations of the US dollar. As a result, the yen has been trading in a wide range of 109.55-111.65 for a month and a half. Yesterday, the S&P 500 gained 0.35%, the dollar index rose 0.14%, which has already consistently pulled the USD/JPY pair up 23 points.



Now the price faces the task of rising above the daily MACD line at 110.74, then the way to the target level 111.39 will open. This mark (110.74) also coincides with the central line of the growing lilac price channel, so the subsequent growth may be above the first target level.



The price is struggling with the local target level of 110.40 on the H4 chart. Surpassing it will indicate an attack on the MACD line at 110.64. Consolidating above this indicator line will be a preparation for an attack on the daily MACD line (110.74). To restore the downward movement, the price needs to go below the level of 109.80, which is more difficult to do at the moment.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 14, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar dropped 32 points yesterday, which nevertheless showed an inclination towards a downward scenario.



The Marlin oscillator is still inside its own wedge, but the intention to get out of it (to the downside) is indicated by yesterday's movement. The first target at 0.7410 is the July 9th low, then the embedded price channel line at 0.7370.



The price settled below both balance and MACD indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator consolidated in the downward trend area on the four-hour chart. We are waiting for development according to the main scenario. Consolidating above the MACD line, above 0.7470, may once again encourage the price to test the price channel line in the 0.7517 area. Consolidating above it will cancel the main descending scenario.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Elliott wave analysis of the S&P 500 for July 15, 2021



The S&P 500 index is now within striking distance of our long-term target at 4,444. At the same time we are seeing a clear loss of upside momentum indicating that continued upside progress will prove difficult. Short-term it will take a break below support at 4,139 to indicate that a top is in place and a larger corrective decline is in motion. A break below support at 4,035 will confirm that a five wave rally from the March 2020 low at 2,182 has completed and at least this rally now needs to be corrected. We do think that the ongoing wave 5 completes an even larger five wave rally back from March 2009 indicating an even larger corrective decline.

However, for now and as long as minor support at 4,139 is able to protect the downside we should look for a final pop to 4,444 to complete the ongoing impulsive rally from 2,182.

Trading recommendation:

Consider selling the S&P 500 index near 4,444 or upon a break below 4,139. If you are long the S&P 500 index tighten you stop to 4,139

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 16, 2021

EUR/USD
The euro fell by 23 points on Thursday, having not decided to retest the target level of 1.1855. The growth of the signal line of the Marlin oscillator inside its own channel has stopped, now it is possible to reduce it and exit the channel downwards. The first target of the euro is 1.1705 - the low on March 31.



The price has settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, the Marlin is declining in the negative zone – in the declining trend area. We are waiting for the price to fall further towards the specified goal.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 19, 2021

EUR/USD
Friday's report on retail sales in the United States for June exceeded expectations: the total volume showed an increase of 0.6% against the forecast of -0.4%, the core index added 1.3% (forecast 0.4%). The dollar index strengthened by 0.14%, but the euro fell by only 7 points. But the mood kept falling, technical indicators support it.



On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly moving to the lower border of its own local rising channel. Exit from it to the downside will accelerate the euro's decline. The first target at 1.1705 is the March low.



The price and oscillator have formed triangles on the 4-hour chart. The synchronous output of the price and the oscillator from the triangles down can also set momentum for a downward movement. The signal level is Friday's low at 1.1792.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 20, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar hit its first bearish target at 0.7344 yesterday. Further supports and targets are close: 0.7295, 0.7244 (high on October 9, 2020), but such a move is also indirectly due to the potential convergence of the price with the Marlin oscillator on the daily timescale (dashed line), which slows down movement and increases intraday volatility.



The price is holding on to the reached level on a four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator is turning up, and today a slight correction is likely after the previous three-day decline.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for AUD/USD on July 21, 2021

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is slowly declining amid technical constraints - the price fluctuates between the adjacent price channel lines and below the target level of 0.7344, which is also located between these lines.



Overcoming yesterday's low at 0.7301 opens the nearest target at 0.7244. A price reversal from this level to the upside is possible under the influence of the emerging convergence with the Marlin oscillator. Potential correction may continue up to the MACD line. At 0.7500, it intersects with the embedded price channel line.



The price shows an intention to break through support at 0.7301 on the four-hour chart. The impetus for this was set by weak retail sales in Australia in May, which showed a decrease of -1.8%. The Marlin oscillator is turning down in the downward trend area. We are waiting for the aussie to move towards the specified goal.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 22, 2021

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro grew slightly not so much because of profit-taking (some players left the markets before today's European Central Bank meeting), but because of the emergence of risk appetite: S&P 500 0.82%, Euro Stoxx 50 1.78%, 5-year yield US government bonds increased from 0.685% to 0.738%. And if even on Monday-Tuesday the market was dominated by the opinion about introducing specifics into the monetary policy of the ECB, then yesterday the major market participants were no longer so specific in such forecasts and expectations.



On the daily chart, the Marlin Oscillator continues to rise slowly in a narrow upward channel. The signal line has come very close to the zero line and, under favorable circumstances, is ready to turn down from it. In this case, the target is the level 1.1705 (March 31st low).

In order for the growth to develop, the price needs to overcome the first resistance at 1.1850. The path to this level is not very close, so the likelihood of wide range trading today and tomorrow is very likely. If the resistance holds, the price will go to the support at 1.1705. If the resistance does not resist, then the growth will continue to the second target at 1.1925.



Marlin entered positive territory on the four-hour chart. This is a sign of a probable price surge to the MACD line 1.1815 before the price falls in the main scenario.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast for EUR/USD on July 23, 2021

EUR/USD
The European Central Bank's meeting from yesterday partially justified the expectations of investors - it was announced that the super-soft policy could last a little longer than planned due to the weak recovery and the new threat of the coronavirus. Our forecast came true in that on Thursday we expected increased volatility of the single currency - the trading range was 74 points.



We expect increased volatility today as well, as the signal line of the Marlin oscillator on the daily chart has almost come close to the zero line and the market itself is tempted to go up from the technical framework. But the statistical likelihood of decisive growth is less, the main technical indicators are still bearish-dominant. The first target for the main scenario is 1.1705, the second target is 1.1640. If the price still manages to overcome the target level 1.1850 (Marlin will already be in the growth zone), then the growth may continue to the MACD line in the area of the target level 1.1925.



The price made a false exit above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, this is a sign of a subsequent downward movement. The Marlin Oscillator is on the edge of growth territory. We are waiting for the price to drop to the first target at 1.1705.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 26, 2021

Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair volatility is subdued, which is typical for a Falling Wedge pattern in progress. The strong technical support had been established at the level of 1.1761 and the bears had failed to break through it many times. In a case of a breakout ot the upside, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1820 (the key short-term resistance) and 1.1850. The corrective cycle can be terminated if the level of 1.1883 is clearly broken. The rising momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1888
WR2 - 1.1859
WR1 - 1.1808
Weekly Pivot - 1.1781
WS1 - 1.1732
WS2 - 1.1699
WS3 - 1.1653

Trading Recommendations:
The down trend continues with a new swing low being made around the level of 1.1761. The key long term technical support is seen at 1.1704 and the Falling Wedge pattern is being made around this level. When this cycle is terminated, the up trend can be continued towards the next long-term target located at the level of 1.2350 (high from 06.01.2021).



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.