Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 27, 2020

EUR/USD
The euro climbed 150 points on Thursday due to rising risk appetite amid massive infusion of dollar liquidity by the Federal Reserve worth 75 billion dollars a day, the stock market will grow more than 6% (S&P 500 6.24%) and at the same time on the tragic data on applications for unemployment benefits – this past week showed the US economy's opinion in antivirus quarantine, the number of applications reached 3.283 million (!) against the forecast of 1.648 million Before the highest record figure was 669,000 in April 2009. The employment forecast for the next week shows economists' expectations for an increase in unemployment in March from 3.5% to 4.0% and a decrease in non-agricultural employment by 420,000 (in September 2008-422,000). In the euro area, the employment situation is even worse than in the US, but the markets in this situation have traditionally reacted sensitively to the very fact of bad data. Unemployment in Germany for March is expected to rise to 5.1%. We are cautious about the growth of the euro. Also, in the market, investors are taking risks with caution – the trading volume was even less than in the previous days of the week.



The correction was already 50% of the fall on March 9-20. The euro's desire to continue its corrective growth to 61.8% will be fraught with even greater difficulties. The Fibonacci level range of 50.0-61.8% contains multiple technical levels that have accumulated since July 2019. The price is currently above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator has broken into the growth zone, but the market just needs to swing down a little and the indicators will again be in negative values. Consolidating the price above the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.1070) will make it possible to continue growth from the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1170. Moving the price under the 38.2% Fibonacci level, which will also mean breaking through the support of the price channel (1.0970), opening a promising goal of 1.0630 along the lower line of the price channel. The intermediate target level of 1.0879 is the low of October 1, 2019.



The price is still in a growing position on the four-hour chart, but the leading indicator Marlin is already turning down. We are waiting for the development of events.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for AUD/USD on March 30, 2020

AUD/USD
The Australian pound grew by 122 points on Friday, with the upper shadow marking the enclosed line of the price channel. Today in the Asian session there is an intention of the price to move down from the achieved resistance. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator also touched the boundary with the growth territory and turns around from it. The purpose of the decline, in the case of a confirmed reversal, becomes the underlying price channel line in the region of 0.5838.



The price exit above Friday's high could extend the aussie's growth to the upper embedded line of the price channel at the intersection with the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 0.6410. The MACD line also tends to this point.



On the four-hour chart according to Marlin, a double divergence has formed, the sign of a reversal has strengthened.

Trading recommendations. It is advisable to open sales directly from current levels with consolidating profit in front of the level of 0.5838, S/L 0.6206. If the price goes above 0.6206, we buy with a target in front of the level of 0.6410, S/L 0.6113.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for USD/JPY on March 31, 2020

USD/JPY
Today, the dollar is correcting up against the yen after the previous four-day fall. The closest and most powerful correction resistance is the MACD line on the daily chart on the price of 109.05. Departure of the price to support the price channel line at 107.02 opens the way to the lower channel line to the 102.60 area. Consolidating the price over the MACD line puts the dollar in a very difficult position of uncertainty of freely roaming in the 109.05-111.88 range, which in practice can mean that a certain range could form - a triangle or a flag.



The situation is completely decreasing on the four-hour chart: the price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. From which, however, shows the intention to leave. Growth may continue to the MACD line at 109.70, which is higher than the resistance of the MACD line on the daily scale. Even in this discrepancy, uncertainty and possibility that the price could roam around begins. But all this uncertainty is related only to growth. Leaving the price below the linear support of 107.02 opens the way to a decrease to 102.60.



*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 1, 2020

EUR/USD
Yesterday, the euro launched an attack on the strong technical support of 1.0967, formed by the point of intersection with the line of the descending price channel and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, as can be seen on the daily scale chart. At the same time, the price tried to gain a foothold under the MACD indicator line, but it returned to this line by the time the session ended.



Today, it opened under the MACD line and under the balance line (red indicator), which indicates the market's intention to repeat the attack at 1.0967. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator moves parallel to the boundary with the territory of the bears, waiting for a signal from the price itself.



Marlin is already in the negative trend zone on the four-hour chart, while the price is kept above the balance and MACD lines. An attack pattern is created for the MACD line, that is, to the target level of 1.0875, determined at the low of October 1, 2019.

So, if yesterday's high of 1.1053 is not violated, short positions in the market can be opened with the target of 1.0875. Stop loss above 1.1053.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 1, 2020

USD/JPY
The second day, the yen is kept in the range of two lines of the price channel (107.02-107.55). Foreign markets, primarily stock indices, are falling, which continues to put pressure on the pair and increases the likelihood of a price drop to the 102.60 target, determined by the price channel on the daily chart. The Marlin oscillator is staying in the declining trend zone. The S&P 500 lost 4.41% yesterday, while the Nikkei 225 is losing 0.86% today in the Asian session.



A convergence has formed on the four-hour chart according to Marlin, but if a price reduction occurs in the next few hours, then a convergence will not form, the growth of the oscillator will take on the character of an indicator discharge before a further decrease.



If the price drops below yesterday's low of 106.93, sales may be opened with a target above 102.60, s/l above 107.85.

Overcoming the price of the upper limit of the range does not lead to opening purchases, since the growth rate is uncertain, it ranges from a little above 107.85 (false puncture) to 109.70 - the MACD line on daily, or even higher - up to 109.80, to the MACD line on H4.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 3, 2020

GBP/USD
The British pound has been moving sideways for five sessions along the 138.2% Fibonacci line. The short-term price drop on March 31 does not break the overall picture. If the price goes out of the range, it will trigger a further increase in the price to the Fibonacci levels of 123.6% and 110.0% - to the prices of 1.2540 and 1.2645, respectively. The resistance of the second target is boosted by the approaching MACD line. The targets of the downward movement are the Fibonacci levels of 161.8% and 200.0% at the price levels of 1.2235 and 1.1935.



We will highlight the signal levels on a smaller scale chart. These are: 1.2484 - March 27 peak and 1.2329 - April 1 low. Accordingly, at the moment of overcoming the price of 1.2484, purchases with goals up to 1.2645 are possible, with overcoming the price of 1.2329, it is advised to open sales with the goal of 1.1935. The intermediate target is 1.2030, which the MACD line is aiming for. If the price reverses from this level, it is advisable to close a short position.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Control zones for USDCAD on 04/06/20

The pair has formed an accumulation zone over the past five days. The boundaries that will hinder further movement are the extremes of the previous week. The upper reference point is the weekly CZ 1.4350-1.4319. Support is the weekly control zones of 1.4037-1.4007. Tests of the specified zones should be perceived as an opportunity to search for deals inside the range.



Work within the framework of the flat involves inputs and outputs at its boundaries so that transactions will be limited to the range.

To exit the flat, you will need to consolidate the pair above one of the weekly control zone positions during the US session. This will allow you to change the trading style to an impulsive one. Closing trades above 1.4350 will allow you to consider medium-term purchases, while a consolidation below 1.4007 will indicate the beginning of a change in the medium-term momentum to a bearish one.



Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 07/04/2020:



Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has hit the technical support at the level of 1.0767 and is trying to bounce higher. The current price action acts as there is a Double Bottom pattern made around the support, so the odds for a rally are quite high. The first obstacle is the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0888, but the oversold market conditions on H4 time frame chart might be helpful to the bulls. If they manage to break through this level, then in the same time, they will break out of the descending channel, and this should accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.0951. On the other hand, a failure to break out will likely result in deepening the move down and new local lows will be made. The next technical support is seen at the bottom of the swing at 1.0654 and 1.0635.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1359
WR2 - 1.1244
WR1 - 1.0981
Weekly Pivot - 1.0872
WS1 - 1.0612
WS2 - 1.0487
WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 08/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A new PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report showed that fundraising and cryptography mergers and acquisitions (M&A) fell last year, but that doesn't mean the cryptographic market is dying out.

It seems that the cryptographic industry cannot attract investment from institutional investors. The giant of professional PwC services said that the number and value of fundraising as well as mergers and acquisitions showed a sharp decline last year. Cryptography-related mergers and acquisitions dropped by 76% to $ 451 million in 2019, from over $ 1.9 billion in the previous year. The amount of funds raised decreased by 40% to USD 2.24 billion.

Cryptocurrency space could not attract mainstream investment, despite the fact that Bitcoin grew strongly in the second and third quarters of 2019. In July, the price reached a peak of over $ 13,500.

Given the current COVID pandemic, the report's authors argue that the cryptocurrency market will not attract mainstream investment in the near future. High volatility due to coronavirus panic and the economic downturn does not bode well for the space being created. It seems that the cryptographic industry is not resistant to global winds, and the number and value of fundraising and merger transactions can be affected in 2020.

Technical Market Outlook:
The ETH/USD high located at the level of $175.00 is still an important target for bulls that are still trying to make use of the momentum behind the recent move up and move higher towards the level of $176.78, which is a technical resistance for the price. On the other hand, if the bulls fail here, (there is a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern present on H4 time frame chart), then the next taechnical support is seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. Please notice the increasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - $180.45
WR2 - $163.97
WR1 - $154.32
Weekly Pivot - $137.76
WS1 - $127.39
WS2 - $112.43
WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:
The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.



Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 9, 2020

AUD / USD
The Australian dollar reached its upper target of 0.6249 (February 2009 low) yesterday. Now, the question is: will it turn into a medium-term decline today, or mark the MACD line on the daily time frame (0.6354). The Marlin oscillator indicates a reversal, but it does not stop the price from rising by another hundred points.



On the four-hour chart, there is a sign that an extended divergence on the Marlin oscillator is forming. The signal is twofold; on the one hand, it indicates the intention of the price to move downwards from the current levels, on the other, the divergence may dissolve in the continued growth of the indicator itself.



A clear signal of a trend reversal will be the price overcoming the support of the MACD line at around 0.6090.

So, with the price breaking the signal level of 0.6090, it is recommended to open short positions with a goal before 0.5820 and stop loss above 0.6115.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.