Technical Analysis 14/05/2010 of FXCBS

Friday May 14 , 2010

Previous session overview

The euro dollar pair recorded a low of 1.25158 and a high of 1.25640, having the union currency trading around 1.25477.

Regarding the pound dollar pair, it rose slightly recording a high of 1.46395 and a low of 1.45534, having the royal currency trading around 1.45731.

Finally, the dollar gained against the Japanese yen after yesterday's fall recording a high of 92.953 and a low of 92.512, while the pair is currently trading around 92.877.

Market Expectations

EUR/USD : We expect today for the pair Euro against the U.S. dollar a corrective movement for the last decline to the level of 1.27420 at 38.2% Fibonacci before continue it’s decline to the level of 1.24280, stability of the level 38.2% Fibonacci necessary to achieve this expectation.

http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/EURUSD.gif

GBP/USD :We expect for the pair Sterling against the U.S. dollar to do a corrective movement to the level of 38.2% Fibonacci at the price of 1.47400, and then decline to achieve our target at 1.44650.

http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/GBPUSD.gif


USD/JPY :The pair neared the first awaited target at 92.30 and rebounded upwards due to the positive effect of momentum indicators, we expect that the pair will decline to retest again the level of 92.300.
http://www.fxcbs.com/newsletter/images/USDJPY.gif

Senior Analyst / Ali Hasan /FXCBS

Newsletter

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As the confidence in the EUR and GBP wanes the USD continues to attract solid buying interest. With risk reversals still heavily skewed towards USD calls, the outlook for the dollar index remains uniformly bullish even as the probability of a Fed rate hike this year fades. Economic data has been playing second fiddle in recent weeks and until the picture for risk assets clears up and EU debt fears subside, we think macro data are unlikely to be critical for price action near-term. The high correlation with equities continues to weigh on GBP but with the BoE now also reasserting its influence, we see no immediate escape for GBP from the clutches of the sterling bears. April retail sales and CPI data, and the MPC minutes will keep GBP on a knife-edge next week.