ForexPros Daily Analysis April 7, 2010

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the support 1.3412 and fell as expected, but less than what is expected. The drop which followed was less than 70 pips, and did not reach the first suggested target 1.3283. But this sluggishness does not change the negative technical outlook. And as we said yesterday, after such a break it is only normal for the Euro to enter in a bearish phase, for the short term at least. But approaching 1.3606 then breaking a rising channel could mean that we are entering a bearish phase on the medium term as well. Short term support is at 1.3355, and if broken, the drop created upon the 1.3465 break will gain momentum, and will drag the Euro down to 1.3283 as a first target for this break, and then we could see 1.3190. As for the resistance, it is at the important trend line on the hourly chart, which is at 1.3458. If the Euro manages to go back inside the channel, that would be a real surprise, and if this surprise happens, that would give another chance to test the most important resistance of all 1.3606. And if this one is broken, the Euro will enter a bullish phase for the short & medium terms, and would target 1.3703 as a first immediate and modest target for such a break on the way to higher levels in the coming days. But, as long as we are below 1.3458, there will be no surprises, and the Euro will fall towards the above mentioned targets.

• 1.3355: Asian session low.
• 1.3283: last Thursday’s low.
• 1.3190: Apr 30th 2009 low.

• 1.3458: the falling trend line from Friday's low on hourly chart.
• 1.3606: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.3816.
• 1.3703: Mar 8th high.



The Dollar-Yen did not fell below 93.75 much, ad came back to the habit that we have seen in the past few days, of making us bored to death, and failing to create any strong moves upon a break. Thus, we do not see much of a change in the technical outlook. Short term support is at January 8th top 93.75, and if broken the 94 adventure would have ended, even if temporary, and it will be time for an overdue correction. Targets for this break would be the most important support for the short term 93.12 & 92.10. As for the resistance it is at 61.8% Fibonacci resistance for the drop from 94.77 which is at 94.28 & breaking it would indicate a continuation in the slow advancement to target 95.05 & 95.94.

• 93.75: Jan 8th high.
• 92.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 92.10, a very important support for the short term.
• 92.10: Mar 30th low.

• 94.31: short term 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
• 95.05: Aug 24th high.
• 95.94: Mar 30th 2009 low.


Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.



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